Safety Rotation

[Brady6]

I have Tavon Wilson winning the starting role next to McCourty. I also think there will be a lot of 3-4 CB and 1 SAF alignments.

 

[hwc]

It's so last century to think in terms of a #1 and #2 corner or a #1 or #2 safety. The Pats have five or six DBs on field for, what, over 50% of the plays now? They also have an incredibly deep roster at DB (knock on wood). I don't care whether you call them safeties or corners. In a 6 DB package, I don't even know what "safety" or "cornerback" means...

They've got a lot of veteran experienced DBs and can line up 6 of them at one time that are better than the 6 DBs most NFL teams can put on the field.

I find the PFW pearl clutching over the #2 safety to be a little ridiculous. Nobody wants to see Nate Ebner as the starter. But, if he's going to make the team as a special teamer and gets forced into a six DB set mid season due to a rash of injuries, then I would hope he would have at least taken some snaps in the first week of training camp!

Same thing with Chung. Nobody wants to see him as the starter, but a six year NFL veteran of 62 games as your sixth DB? A lot of teams would like to have that problem.

 

[PP2]

Ebner...heh...a great special teams player...safety?...not so much...really. I mean I hope I NEVER see him in our secondary starting with McCourty

Why would you say that about Ebner?

 

[Joker]

he can't cover...he hits like a bulldozer. He looked sad trying to cover anybody Friday night.

 

[Ivan]

I agree. I don't see anything regarding a "lack of planning." I'm sure Belichick didn't just suddenly forget about the other safety spot.

Now, I can understand those who may question the fact that it wasn't addressed with better talent, although I think that the hope is that Harmon can be the guy, and has been the whole time since last season.

We may not all agree on what the plan is, but there's obviously one in place.

I think he knows he has good options at the other safety spot and is going to rotate them situationally. I think Ebner has to show he can actually play safety to stick this time around.

 

[jmt57]

For what it's worth, here are the 2013 defensive snap counts at safety:

2013 regular season (1,156 snaps)
89.2% - 1031 snaps -- Devin McCourty
72.7% -- 840 snaps -- Steve Gregory
36.9% -- 427 snaps -- Duron Harmon
1.6% ----- 18 snaps -- Tavon Wilson
0.4% ------ 5 snaps -- Nate Ebner

It was strictly McCourty and Gregory in the playoffs; Wilson had three snaps versus the Colts and Harmon had two against the Broncos. How Gregory's playing time will be replaced is a legitimate question in this off season. As a point of reference, compare 2013 to 2012 to see how the Patriots replaced the amount of time at the position given to Patrick Chung and Tavon Wilson with not only McCourty, but also Harmon.



By comparison, here are the snap counts for the 2012 regular season, though it should be noted that McCourty's numbers are a total of time at both corner and safety. Considering that the four others added up to 1,764 snaps and there were 1,112 total snaps, I would guess that McCourty's number at safety was probably about 300-400.

2012 regular season (1,112 snaps)
98.2%* - 1092 snaps -- Devin McCourty (* both CB and S)
67.4% --- 749 snaps -- Steve Gregory
48.2% --- 536 snaps -- Patrick Chung
42.5% --- 473 snaps -- Tavon Wilson
3.1% ------ 34 snaps -- Nate Ebner


From what I am seeing, Wilson and Ebner's playing time has dropped - and Chung's went to zero when no attempt was made to re-sign him. Four players got playing time at safety in 2012 only because of lack of productivity; last year the backups totaled 450 snaps (about 28 snaps per games). Unlike other positions, that was almost all due to injury rather than situational football (e.g., 3rd down pass rusher or RB); a fifth defensive back will be a corner, not a safety.

That leaves the following as potential backups in case of injury, who will also be counted on to play on special teams:

• Patrick Chung
• Tavon Wilson
• Nate Ebner
• Kanorris Davis
• Jemea Thomas
• Shamiel Gary

 

[supafly]

For what it's worth, here are the 2013 defensive snap counts at safety:

2013 regular season (1,156 snaps)
89.2% - 1031 snaps -- Devin McCourty
72.7% -- 840 snaps -- Steve Gregory
36.9% -- 427 snaps -- Duron Harmon
1.6% ----- 18 snaps -- Tavon Wilson
0.4% ------ 5 snaps -- Nate Ebner

It was strictly McCourty and Gregory in the playoffs; Wilson had three snaps versus the Colts and Harmon had two against the Broncos. How Gregory's playing time will be replaced is a legitimate question in this off season. As a point of reference, compare 2013 to 2012 to see how the Patriots replaced the amount of time at the position given to Patrick Chung and Tavon Wilson with not only McCourty, but also Harmon.



By comparison, here are the snap counts for the 2012 regular season, though it should be noted that McCourty's numbers are a total of time at both corner and safety. Considering that the four others added up to 1,764 snaps and there were 1,112 total snaps, I would guess that McCourty's number at safety was probably about 300-400.

2012 regular season (1,112 snaps)
98.2%* - 1092 snaps -- Devin McCourty (* both CB and S)
67.4% --- 749 snaps -- Steve Gregory
48.2% --- 536 snaps -- Patrick Chung
42.5% --- 473 snaps -- Tavon Wilson
3.1% ------ 34 snaps -- Nate Ebner


From what I am seeing, Wilson and Ebner's playing time has dropped - and Chung's went to zero when no attempt was made to re-sign him. Four players got playing time at safety in 2012 only because of lack of productivity; last year the backups totaled 450 snaps (about 28 snaps per games). Unlike other positions, that was almost all due to injury rather than situational football (e.g., 3rd down pass rusher or RB); a fifth defensive back will be a corner, not a safety.

That leaves the following as potential backups in case of injury, who will also be counted on to play on special teams:

• Patrick Chung
• Tavon Wilson
• Nate Ebner
• Kanorris Davis
• Jemea Thomas
• Shamiel Gary

I don't know how viable of a realistic option it may be, but I noticed that the unofficial depth chart listed Swanson as a safety today. Maybe that is someone to keep an eye on for that S4 (or even S5 for the first month) spot throughout the rest of TC/preseason.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think he knows he has good options at the other safety spot and is going to rotate them situationally. I think Ebner has to show he can actually play safety to stick this time around.

FWIW, Ebner's ST play was good enough last year that he made the roster without playing a down in the preseason. Of course, it's possible that things have gotten to the point this year that he's superfluous, as they did with Ray Ventrone back in the day. But at this point I still think he has to be seen as having to lose his ST spot from last year rather than earn a spot at safety.

 

[supafly]

FWIW, Ebner's ST play was good enough last year that he made the roster without playing a down in the preseason. Of course, it's possible that things have gotten to the point this year that he's superfluous, as they did with Ray Ventrone back in the day. But at this point I still think he has to be seen as having to lose his ST spot from last year rather than earn a spot at safety.

Ebner is difficult for me to project. I can see the reasoning provided by both you and Ivan, and I'd have him at 50/50 myself. I do agree that he could nail down one of the ST only spots, should it come down to it.

 

[jmt57]

I don't know how viable of a realistic option it may be, but I noticed that the unofficial depth chart listed Swanson as a safety today. Maybe that is someone to keep an eye on for that S4 (or even S5 for the first month) spot throughout the rest of TC/preseason.

For right now - i.e., the 2014 season - I would put Swanson in a group with Ebner and K Davis: strictly special teamers right now. Though probably very effective in that role, you really would prefer to not see them playing defense. However, you want to keep one or more of them on the roster not just for their ST play, but because they also have the ceiling to develop the way Kyle Arrington did from five years ago.

A more recent example would be Marquice Cole, who also played well on special teams, but was eventually released once the team had a better feel for what his ceiling was as a defensive back. We have seen that with other players, where the coaching staff at some point has seen enough to feel comfortable with their analysis of what that ceiling is and move on (e.g., Cunningham, Spikes, Fletcher).

If that is indeed the case, then that means the younger a player is (Swanson, Davis), the more likely that player will make the roster and be given a chance to develop, while a more experienced player (Chung, and to a lesser extent Wilson) will be given less leeway and actually - perhaps ironically - have to prove himself more than the younger, less experienced player does.

 

[captain stone]

Too early to pigeonhole Dax Swanson as a ST-only guy; besides, he's a CB/FS, whereas Ebner
& KDavis are SSs.

 

[Ivan]

Ebner is difficult for me to project. I can see the reasoning provided by both you and Ivan, and I'd have him at 50/50 myself. I do agree that he could nail down one of the ST only spots, should it come down to it.

I think this secondary is much deeper and much more talented than the one they fielded last season so Ebner will have to show he can play the position to hang onto a roster spot. I think Belichick would have a hard time releasing a guy who can play ST's and a defensive back position over a guy who is purely an ST player. Now as we have seen with Slater it is possible that he values Ebner so much on ST's that he does just that but he would really have to be exceptional on ST's to be able to stay on the roster with no ability to contribute to the defense.