Run/Pass Ratio

[BelichickFan]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzAGXnXXUAAazSe.jpg

Interestingly we're 5th in Run%. That may even move up with our 3 man rotation.

 

[Ring 6]

Unlikely to increase because 20% of the season so far had Jacoby Brissett at QB.

 

[Kontradiction]

For my own curiosity, I've read that the Pats used 11 personnel on offense more than any other grouping. Does anyone know how many times they called a designed run out of that personnel grouping?

 

[BelichickFan]

Unlikely to increase because 20% of the season so far had Jacoby Brissett at QB.

My numbers come out slightly different than this tweet I copied but the Brissett effect is small. I have us as 54.5% passes (417 passing attempts, 348 rushing). Take out the two Brissett starts and it's 56.4% which still keeps us in the top ten for rushing%. Again my numbers don't match exactly, they may count sacks differently or something.

Not wanting to get lost in Brissett's small but notable effect, we're far from the all out passing attack some might think and that's a good thing.

 

[Kontradiction]

My numbers come out slightly different than this tweet I copied but the Brissett effect is small. I have us as 54.5% passes (417 passing attempts, 348 rushing). Take out the two Brissett starts and it's 56.4% which still keeps us in the top ten for rushing%. Again my numbers don't match exactly, they may count sacks differently or something.

Not wanting to get lost in Brissett's small but notable effect, we're far from the all out passing attack some might think and that's a good thing.

The Patriots were running a lot of 12 personnel with Gronk and Bennett and, I would guess, ran it more out of that grouping than any other team since the defense would respond by playing that grouping in the nickel. I'm not really sure we're going to see that continue either since I don't expect them to run it as much in 3WR sets.

 

[Ring 6]

My numbers come out slightly different than this tweet I copied but the Brissett effect is small. I have us as 54.5% passes (417 passing attempts, 348 rushing). Take out the two Brissett starts and it's 56.4% which still keeps us in the top ten for rushing%. Again my numbers don't match exactly, they may count sacks differently or something.

Not wanting to get lost in Brissett's small but notable effect, we're far from the all out passing attack some might think and that's a good thing.

Brissett also played more than half of the Miami game where the run pass ratio was very high.
My point however, was not that its more than 2% higher because of it, but that we wont be increasing the run pass ration that we have so far, because it is inflated by having to play him.

 

[irishfanatic]

I see that the Ravens are pretty high in the Pass %.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I see that the Ravens are pretty high in the Pass %.

jump ball joe can't get a PI call if he's handing it off. And their usual offensive plan....

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots were running a lot of 12 personnel with Gronk and Bennett and, I would guess, ran it more out of that grouping than any other team since the defense would respond by playing that grouping in the nickel. I'm not really sure we're going to see that continue either since I don't expect them to run it as much in 3WR sets.

On the other hand, 3 wide could spread the defense out further giving more running room.
If the TE is inside blocking a DB you have an advantage, but if the wr3 is outside with that DB you have effectively taken him out of many running plays even if you don't block him.
I expect to see more running out of passing formations without Gronk because we will get lighter personnel, have a better idea of where they will be, and spread them out further. With Lewis able to usually make the first guy miss, this should be a staple of the game plan.

 

[luuked]

For my own curiosity, I've read that the Pats used 11 personnel on offense more than any other grouping. Does anyone know how many times they called a designed run out of that personnel grouping?

I wish there was a database that kept track of all of it. I'd have some queries on my mind to run against it.

 

[luuked]

The Patriots were running a lot of 12 personnel with Gronk and Bennett and, I would guess, ran it more out of that grouping than any other team since the defense would respond by playing that grouping in the nickel. I'm not really sure we're going to see that continue either since I don't expect them to run it as much in 3WR sets.

I thought that we were in 12 personnel only 27% of the time ? Or was that 27% aimed at something else ?

 

[Kontradiction]

On the other hand, 3 wide could spread the defense out further giving more running room.
If the TE is inside blocking a DB you have an advantage, but if the wr3 is outside with that DB you have effectively taken him out of many running plays even if you don't block him.
I expect to see more running out of passing formations without Gronk because we will get lighter personnel, have a better idea of where they will be, and spread them out further. With Lewis able to usually make the first guy miss, this should be a staple of the game plan.

We'll see. I suspect that's the personnel grouping we'll see the most of the rest of the season. The amount of designed runs out of it (particularly runs off tackle) will depend upon how the team feels about the blocking of both Mitchell and Hogan. We know Edelman is willing and able. Denver is suspect asgainst the run so that would be the next best opportunity to find out.

 

[luuked]

On the other hand, 3 wide could spread the defense out further giving more running room.
If the TE is inside blocking a DB you have an advantage, but if the wr3 is outside with that DB you have effectively taken him out of many running plays even if you don't block him.
I expect to see more running out of passing formations without Gronk because we will get lighter personnel, have a better idea of where they will be, and spread them out further. With Lewis able to usually make the first guy miss, this should be a staple of the game plan.

I think the main difference is that in 12 you were able to use Blount, whereas if we spread it out with Blount on the field everyone will know he is just a body. This effectively means that we can only run while keeping the opponent in nickel with Lewis (preferred) and White which takes away a lot of flexibility.

 

[Kontradiction]

I thought that we were in 12 personnel only 27% of the time ? Or was that 27% aimed at something else ?

I was comparing that grouping against every other grouping out there. The Pats ran that a good amount of the time. The match-up nightmare that grouping presents is the primary reason they signed Bennett, Surprisingly, I read that it was highly effective against the Rams (With Fleming as the other TE). The Pats were averaging over 10 yards per carry in that grouping.

 

[luuked]

I was comparing that grouping against every other grouping out there. The Pats ran that a good amount of the time. The match-up nightmare that grouping presents is the primary reason they signed Bennett, Surprisingly, I read that it was highly effective against the Rams (With Fleming as the other TE). The Pats were averaging over 10 yards per carry in that grouping.

Yeah Kontra, I understand why it was such a great mismatch creator and the running game suffering was actually the first thing that came to my mind when Gronk went to IR. But since then multiple beat reporters made it sound like we didn't really use that package that often (i.e. the reported 27% of snaps). I honestly thought that we were using it considerably more and -- apparently mistakenly -- attributed Blounts improved numbers more to light boxes due to scheme than the improvements on the OL.

Maybe it's time to revisit that thought.

 

[Ring 6]

We'll see. I suspect that's the personnel grouping we'll see the most of the rest of the season. The amount of designed runs out of it (particularly runs off tackle) will depend upon how the team feels about the blocking of both Mitchell and Hogan. We know Edelman is willing and able. Denver is suspect asgainst the run so that would be the next best opportunity to find out.

Hogan was brought in partly because of his willingness and ability to block and has done very well so far, and Mitchell has looked ok too.
My point was more that you can create numbers by spreading as much as you can create numbers by matching a TE on a S in tight.

 

[Ring 6]

I was comparing that grouping against every other grouping out there. The Pats ran that a good amount of the time. The match-up nightmare that grouping presents is the primary reason they signed Bennett, Surprisingly, I read that it was highly effective against the Rams (With Fleming as the other TE). The Pats were averaging over 10 yards per carry in that grouping.

But I think the 10 yards per carry is heavily skewed by the 43 yard run.

 

[Ring 6]

I think the main difference is that in 12 you were able to use Blount, whereas if we spread it out with Blount on the field everyone will know he is just a body. This effectively means that we can only run while keeping the opponent in nickel with Lewis (preferred) and White which takes away a lot of flexibility.

Not really. You can easily play Blount in 3 WR 1 TE offense.
What you are essentially doing compared to 2 WR 2 TE is replacing an TE lined up inside blocking on a S or LB with a WR lined up outside, blocking on a corner who is much farther from the ball.
We throw often with Blount on the field.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah Kontra, I understand why it was such a great mismatch creator and the running game suffering was actually the first thing that came to my mind when Gronk went to IR. But since then multiple beat reporters made it sound like we didn't really use that package that often (i.e. the reported 27% of snaps). I honestly thought that we were using it considerably more and -- apparently mistakenly -- attributed Blounts improved numbers more to light boxes due to scheme than the improvements on the OL.

Maybe it's time to revisit that thought.

Ah, I see what you're saying now. I hadn't read that and was going off of what I had seen when I could analyze the offense pre-snap from my couch. 27% sounds lower than I would have thought for that personnel grouping but I don't have access or the time to study the All-22 so I could definitely be wrong. God knows I have been before.

 

[Kontradiction]

But I think the 10 yards per carry is heavily skewed by the 43 yard run.

Good call. Somehow I forgot about the 43 yard run. Taking that away, the Pats were running at 5.5 a clip in that personnel grouping. So still not too shabby.