Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by shmessy, Jun 1, 2012.
No doubt about it, that is an ugly monthly jobs number:
United States Non Farm Payrolls
The April number was revised down by 38k and the March number was revised down another 11k.
GDP revised down as well.
It's not a good number, but at least it's positive. I keep reading more and more about a potentially difficult year in 2013. That the issues in Europe, combined with the economic declines in India and China, will make 2013 a very difficult one. I sure as heck hope that isn't true, but on the surface, you can see where a slowdown in those parts of the country would have to have ramifications globally.
Already knew this without seeing numbers ... just talking to business people every day and you know those numbers before they come out. People are not spending because they are not earning and they are not earning because people are not spending ... vicious cycle to break from.
The banks are going to have another problem soon:
If/when the sh*t hits the fan the pols will blame the bankers
It's strange because just today I was at the supply yard, which I never go to anymore, and I was talking to the owner who I hadn't seen in years. He told me this has been his busiest year since 2006. Granted it's only June 1st, but still. He saw 5 straight years of decline, and a 1% increase last year. This year, so far, he's up double digits in sales. He, like we, actually saw bad numbers in 2006, before the bottom fell out on the economy. It's why we sort of insulated ourselves for the coming years. I mention this because for us, this year has been much slower than last. We had a good run last year, but are down in comparision this time around. I guess it's a sort of microcosm of the overall economy. Slow, sluggish, uneven, good and bad, hard to predict, etc.
Banks are knee deep in blame pie. Lots of different people own a slice or two.
I saw the 10 year is at 1.58%. Yikes.
its dubya's fault
Actually, it's now at 1.475%.
I'm 2 yrs into a 30 yr fixed at 3.75% and I'm torturing a couple of mortgage brokers the past few days about getting me a refi to 3.25%. As in Chinese, the word for "crisis" and "opportunity" is the same.
There are 5 more jobs reports before the election with the most crucial likely being October's which is usually released on the first Friday of the month ( Fri Nov 2) right before the election.....
you paid points.....
Good point. You bet I did.
I don't care about points - - the criteria is APR, I'm looking for an APR of 3.4% or lower. The one I refinanced to a couple of years ago was 3.9%
Unfortunately, and I really do mean that, things probably won't get any better between now and the election. There is no reason for businesses to expand or hire if they are unsure about taxes, regulation, health insurance and energy cost.
I've been hearing this for the past year from people who own businesses and reading this in trade magazines.
I don't want to see Obama re-elected. But if it's a choice between his winning and the economy greatly improving, I would take his being re-elected. I just hate to see so many people unemployed, under employed, and stuck in jobs that they hate because there aren't any out there.
That must be a mighty big loan... why not just put the points/closing costs towards the principal?
you should.......over 2 years, those point likely made your effective rate more like 5%.....
think about going for 15
33% Fed Income Tax Bracket + 7.5% Maryland.
After the deduction that loan is effectively ~2.25%.
With skyrocketing global government debts and 50 million people per year in the developing world moving from mud huts to the middle class (increasing demand for natural resources - hence inflation), we'll be seeing at least historically normal/average CD's of 5-6%+ in a few years.
At these ridiculously low interest rates, if they had a FIXED 99 year loan, I'd grab it. You'd be locking in a fixed profit for the rest of your life on the arbitrage between that and CD's in the future.
See my post #15.
Pay off the bad stuff, stretch out the good stuff.
If mortgage rates were currently 6%+, I'd agree with you.
I've been holding out on refiing one of my properties, and am now going to do so. I'm trying to guage whether or not I want to take out some of the equity because of the in the 3's rate. I was told by a friend about a Sovereign Bank annuity he was offered that pays out 6%. I need more info about it because it has something to do with the stock market as well. Specifics aside, if I can borrow at say 3.5%, and invest at 6%, then I'd be a fool not to take out additional equity when I refi. Again though, I have to call this guy and see what the specifics are first. There's always a catch. If not I can use the equity on another piece of property should i opt to buy one. I'm leaning toward the latter.
Best move ever. When we bought our house 18 years ago, rates were about 8.5%. After 4 years they dropped to under 6%. We refinanced for 15 years and the payments were about the same each month (less towards interest, more to principle) but we shaved 11 years off the payments, from 26 years left to 15.....Now 14 plus years later we're sitting pretty...while some of our friends who kept "moving up" flipping their house every 5 years are stuck, having bought a house 5-6 years ago that is now worth 20% less and that is in an area not greatly affected by the housing bust!!! Compared to say Vegas, South Florida or Phoenix...
I agree with you......on one hand, I understand the time-value of money that shmessy refers to, but when it comes to the primary residence, I prefer the idea of not having a mortgage at all someday, and now that the 15's are at less than 3, I'm on it......
people don't get that they are going to have to retire someday and paying a mortgage then is not alot of fun....at that point, you may as well be paying rent.
screw that.......you should use the money you take out on a triple-decker. I have 3 units at 1600 apiece on a 2200 mortgage using 20% down........think about it
In the absolute worst case scenario, and I mean worst on a global level, I'd still rather have the security of a home that is paid off. I have friends who have leveraged their home equity in the stock market and more power to them....I'm a child of a child of the Depression and those lessons I heard at an early age stayed with me....
Back to the jobs report and what it means Kudlow has a good article today:
A Grim Jobs Report for America - Larry Kudlow - Townhall Finance Conservative Columnists and Financial Commentary - Page 2
Sadly with the election looming the emphasis is on fundraising and not trying to get the government out of the way of job creation.
Perhaps if the USSC overturns Obamacare that will supply some help.
I'll stand by my opinion that if we ever get out of this economic funk, 10 years later, this period will be called a depression.
If we don't, this is the new normal.
stay thirsty my friends....
I was thinking about your depression comments just this morning. I know you've been saying this for a while, and if next year is what some fear, I fear you might be right.
Fear the fear RW!
Economic "recessions" don't last 5 years or more on a world-wide level. Even scarier is if the "Peak Oil" theory is upon us...then that means we're in a new reality moving forward.
Not a wonderful world in which to raise children or worry about their future. It's like we've had this dark cloud hanging over all our collective heads for too long.
Why do think there's so much anger in the world and hyper-growth of political bipartisanship? Economics and the resulting fear that is festering is your answer.
Shmessy, check you mail. Thanks.
I don't see anything in my PM box at the moment.
A recession is 2+ consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We are not in a recession and haven't been for a couple of years. Just because you continuously type it on an internet forum doesn't make it so. You keep saying we are in a "Depression" - - GM, Ford, etc. would not have been announcing double digit sales growth yesterday if we were in a "Depression".
We are currently in a slow growth recovery. It may not be robust enough for me or you, but it is a slow growth recovery at the moment. Your declarations to the contrary are pure personal emlotion. Where this goes in the FUTURE, however, is anyone's guess.
As a parent, I can vouch that it is not such an awful world in which to bring them up. My kids are (thank God) happy, healthy and full of curiosity at the wonder and advances we see day in and day out. I was born in 1965. During 1968, my parents worried incessantly about what they had done to bring a child into such an inferno. During the Watergate/Stagflation 1970's they worried about whether there would ever be a bright hope for my generation. My son was 1 and 1/2 when 9/11 occurred. I worried how nothing would ever be the same for his generation. To paraphrase ou Gorman, 'The sun came up, the sun went down and we had a great lunch'. The greatest joy in my life is my children and the knowledge that every generation in history had parents who fretted about the headlines of the day.
I could not give less of a sh!t about "Peak Oil". Nat Gas and other forms of energy will easily be there to pick up the slack within the next 10 years. If "Peak Oil" is true, it will be one of the greatest global strategic issues ever for the United States of America. If Obama or Romney actually have any balls and pull with Congress, they'll have us on a trajectory of nat gas cars and trucks by the millions within 3 years. America will thrive - - Iran will die on the vine.
There is a reason why the number #1 principle of the media is "If it bleeds, it leads". The media knows what pays their bills. Other than moon landings and Miracles on Ice, fear is their biggest moneymaker. When it comes to economics, however, I'll go with Warren Buffett who says "Stop reading the headlines and start reading the balance sheets".
Right now we have a slow growth economy which had a very lousy 69,000 job growth number for May. Europe is bungling around and many investors in Euro bonds are going to lose a portion of their investments. The President and the Congress can get very little done beyond their rancor and we have a fiscal "cliff" event scheduled for January 1, 2013 (In the past 2 weeks, however, Paul Ryan, Christopher Van Hollen and John Boehner have all come out and announced that the cliff won't happen then - - in Nov-Dec. the lame duck Congress will kick the can out 6 months to the new Congress and re-elected or newly elected President who will have less election year pressure to posture.
I have no idea what the future truly holds. You don't either. I DO know where we are right now and where we have been the past few years. It may not be robust growth, but it is not a "Recession" or "Depression". At least economically.
Nice post! My twins were 6 months old (I was a stay-at-home dad) and my wife called and said turn on the tv. Never once did I think anything about the world they were going to live in.
My feelings on the fossil fuels is oil companies, special interests, people with agendas, etc, are retarding the switch to alternative fuels. People that say, it won't work are either close-minded or have overdosed on propaganda. The mass population will drive vehicles without fossil fuels, right, lol. The next thing you'll come up with is people will communicate globally by typing on a keyboard, that guy Steve is a crackpot, building a contraption in his garage, Alice, Kapow, to the moon, were going design a bomb in 2 years which smashes atoms, those Wright bro. are idiots, and on and on.
What is the actual price of gas?
(btw, resubmitted the email).
After economic crisis end, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) always goes back historically and re-adjusts the GDP numbers.
You may not agree with me, but I can guarantee you that the numbers will be looked at again down the road and they'll be re-adjusted.
There are many economists who agree that we're either still in recession or a depression. Google it, you'll be surprised.
May 21, 2012
Krugman and Shiller: Weâ€™re In a Depression
Top Economists Say Itâ€™s a Depression
"The best way to think about this continued slump, Iâ€™d argue, is to accept that weâ€™re in a depression â€¦. Itâ€™s nonetheless essentially the same kind of situation that John Maynard Keynes described in the 1930s: â€śa chronic condition of subnormal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either towards recovery or towards complete collapse.â€ť
Amazon.com: End This Depression Now! (9780393088779): Paul Krugman: Books
"The world is in a state of â€ślate Great Depression,â€ť well-known economist and author Robert Shiller told CNBC Monday. April 30, 2012
Depressions don't have to look like 1929. As a matter of fact, it doesn't have to look anything like that to be called a depression.
You did not post that what you wrote above is just your opinion. You came across as if was absolute and it is not. You have your OPINION and I have mine...I stand by my opinion.
Enjoy your Sundee shmessy....
Separate names with a comma.