Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by shmessy, Jun 1, 2012.
No doubt about it, that is an ugly monthly jobs number:
United States Non Farm Payrolls
The April number was revised down by 38k and the March number was revised down another 11k.
GDP revised down as well.
It's not a good number, but at least it's positive. I keep reading more and more about a potentially difficult year in 2013. That the issues in Europe, combined with the economic declines in India and China, will make 2013 a very difficult one. I sure as heck hope that isn't true, but on the surface, you can see where a slowdown in those parts of the country would have to have ramifications globally.
Already knew this without seeing numbers ... just talking to business people every day and you know those numbers before they come out. People are not spending because they are not earning and they are not earning because people are not spending ... vicious cycle to break from.
The banks are going to have another problem soon:
If/when the sh*t hits the fan the pols will blame the bankers
It's strange because just today I was at the supply yard, which I never go to anymore, and I was talking to the owner who I hadn't seen in years. He told me this has been his busiest year since 2006. Granted it's only June 1st, but still. He saw 5 straight years of decline, and a 1% increase last year. This year, so far, he's up double digits in sales. He, like we, actually saw bad numbers in 2006, before the bottom fell out on the economy. It's why we sort of insulated ourselves for the coming years. I mention this because for us, this year has been much slower than last. We had a good run last year, but are down in comparision this time around. I guess it's a sort of microcosm of the overall economy. Slow, sluggish, uneven, good and bad, hard to predict, etc.
Banks are knee deep in blame pie. Lots of different people own a slice or two.
I saw the 10 year is at 1.58%. Yikes.
its dubya's fault
Actually, it's now at 1.475%.
I'm 2 yrs into a 30 yr fixed at 3.75% and I'm torturing a couple of mortgage brokers the past few days about getting me a refi to 3.25%. As in Chinese, the word for "crisis" and "opportunity" is the same.
There are 5 more jobs reports before the election with the most crucial likely being October's which is usually released on the first Friday of the month ( Fri Nov 2) right before the election.....
you paid points.....
Good point. You bet I did.
I don't care about points - - the criteria is APR, I'm looking for an APR of 3.4% or lower. The one I refinanced to a couple of years ago was 3.9%
Unfortunately, and I really do mean that, things probably won't get any better between now and the election. There is no reason for businesses to expand or hire if they are unsure about taxes, regulation, health insurance and energy cost.
I've been hearing this for the past year from people who own businesses and reading this in trade magazines.
I don't want to see Obama re-elected. But if it's a choice between his winning and the economy greatly improving, I would take his being re-elected. I just hate to see so many people unemployed, under employed, and stuck in jobs that they hate because there aren't any out there.
That must be a mighty big loan... why not just put the points/closing costs towards the principal?
you should.......over 2 years, those point likely made your effective rate more like 5%.....
think about going for 15
33% Fed Income Tax Bracket + 7.5% Maryland.
After the deduction that loan is effectively ~2.25%.
With skyrocketing global government debts and 50 million people per year in the developing world moving from mud huts to the middle class (increasing demand for natural resources - hence inflation), we'll be seeing at least historically normal/average CD's of 5-6%+ in a few years.
At these ridiculously low interest rates, if they had a FIXED 99 year loan, I'd grab it. You'd be locking in a fixed profit for the rest of your life on the arbitrage between that and CD's in the future.
See my post #15.
Pay off the bad stuff, stretch out the good stuff.
If mortgage rates were currently 6%+, I'd agree with you.
I've been holding out on refiing one of my properties, and am now going to do so. I'm trying to guage whether or not I want to take out some of the equity because of the in the 3's rate. I was told by a friend about a Sovereign Bank annuity he was offered that pays out 6%. I need more info about it because it has something to do with the stock market as well. Specifics aside, if I can borrow at say 3.5%, and invest at 6%, then I'd be a fool not to take out additional equity when I refi. Again though, I have to call this guy and see what the specifics are first. There's always a catch. If not I can use the equity on another piece of property should i opt to buy one. I'm leaning toward the latter.
Best move ever. When we bought our house 18 years ago, rates were about 8.5%. After 4 years they dropped to under 6%. We refinanced for 15 years and the payments were about the same each month (less towards interest, more to principle) but we shaved 11 years off the payments, from 26 years left to 15.....Now 14 plus years later we're sitting pretty...while some of our friends who kept "moving up" flipping their house every 5 years are stuck, having bought a house 5-6 years ago that is now worth 20% less and that is in an area not greatly affected by the housing bust!!! Compared to say Vegas, South Florida or Phoenix...
I agree with you......on one hand, I understand the time-value of money that shmessy refers to, but when it comes to the primary residence, I prefer the idea of not having a mortgage at all someday, and now that the 15's are at less than 3, I'm on it......
people don't get that they are going to have to retire someday and paying a mortgage then is not alot of fun....at that point, you may as well be paying rent.
screw that.......you should use the money you take out on a triple-decker. I have 3 units at 1600 apiece on a 2200 mortgage using 20% down........think about it
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