rookBoston
In the Starting Line-Up
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So, here's what I've done. I've compiled the first round mock draft from 10 pretty good sites, and I've pulled together a consensus mock draft. The 10 sites I used are: Huddlegeeks, NFLCountdown, NFLDraftMock, DJNFLMockDraft, EastCoastSporst, NFLDraftOffice, MTMock, QISports, JunkYardJake, NorthwestScouting. All ten have fairly recent mock drafts, and are pretty knowledgable.
I charted all the players, where they were picked. I accounted for mock draft trades, and washed it all out.
After each player's name, I'll list three numbers: the highest selection they were taken in 10 mocks, the median selection they were taken, and the lowest. For each pick, I'll take the BPA among the players who were taken by that team in at least one mock draft.
(#) Team - Pos Player Name (High/Median/Low)
(1) Raiders - QB Jamarcus Russell (1/1/3)
Russell is the top pick in 7 of 10 mocks. In the other three, Calvin takes the top spot.
(2) Lions - WR Calvin Johnson (1/2/4)
Quinn is the most common selection at #2 (4 mocks). Johnson is only selected by Detroit twice. But he is the type of player who can help any team... even one that has drafted a WR in the 1st over and over.
(3) Browns - QB Brady Quinn (2/3/4)
All that talk that Quinn might fall to Miami at #9 is not in the cards according to these mockers. No one had him lasting beyond the Bucs at #4.
(4) Bucs - OT Joe Thomas (2/4/5)
Thomas is most commonly drafted by Atlanta at #5. But his talent is a draw for the Lions and Browns, too. I dont think the Bucs really need him as much as they need other positions... including QB. Given that, I think the chances of a trade in the top-5 are very good.
(5) Cardinals - DE Gaines Adams (4/6/16)
With the big four off the board, the field opens up. Adams is actually the consensus #6 pick, but it begs the question, who the heck is Arizona going to take? The best the Cards can do is hope that one of the teams in the top-4 reach for Peterson or Okoye, and let Thomas drop to them. Landry is also a common choice, but he generally lasts until #7. Interesting to note that Adams drops to SF @11, St Louis @13 and GreenBay @16 in three minority opinions. That type of pattern raises questions about downside.
(6) Redskins - DT Amobi Okoye (6/7/13)
Okoye is taken by the Skins in 4 of 10 mocks, and is very clearly favored over Alan Branch. Also fits a need.
(7) Vikings - SS Laron Landry (5/7/8)
#7 is the first sweet spot in the draft, where the Vikes can afford to sit and wait to see what falls to them. Adams, Landry, Okoye, Peterson... they'll be able to choose from at least two of them, and feel good that the value is top notch.
(8) Hawks - RB Adrian Peterson (3/8/10)
Peterson is selected as a top-5 pick in 2 mocks, but is most frequently drafted by Atlanta. He never lasts beyond Houston at #10... which is yet another reminder of the Reggie Bush screwup.
(9) Fins - DE Jamaal Anderson (6/8/19)
Anderson is a prospect that leaves me thinking "BUST!". I honestly dont see the appeal. But, he only drops past #9 in 2 out of the 10 mocks I reviewed. I do respect the gutsy mocker who had him dropping all the way to Tennessee at 19.
(10) Texans - DT Alan Branch (5/9/13)
This seems a little late in the top-10 for Branch, but here's another guy who has all the makings of a big time flop. Still, at #10 the Texans are getting good value for the measurables and game experience.
(11) Niners - LB Patrick Willis (11/12/15)
San Francisco is in a tight spot. There is a pretty clear distinction between the top-10 players, and the rest of the field, according to these mocksters. Unless someone reaches for a player like Leon Hall or Ted Ginn in the top-10, the Niners will be the first team to dip into the next echelon of talent. 9 of 10 mock drafts have SF taking a defensive front-7 player, and I'll stay true to that, and give them Willis even though he usually lasts another pick or two.
(12) Bills - RB Marshawn Lynch (12/12/17)
Lynch is a clear favorite at this spot. In fully half of the mock drafts he's taken at #12. Who am I to question an apparent sure thing?
(13) Rams - CB Leon Hall (9/13/19)
Hall is another guy who draws a mixed opinion from mocksters. As high as #9, as low as #19? And no one team who looks like they've really fallen in love, anywhere in that range.
(14) Panthers - OT Levi Brown (10/14/ns)
Brown actually slips out of the first round in one mock. He is most commonly drafted by Houston in 4 of 10 mock drafts. Interesting that most mocks have Carolina taking TE Olsen at this spot. But in this case, Carolina decides Brown is their best value. That starts Olsen sliding a bit.
(15) Steelers - DE Adam Carricker (11/15/18)
Nice fit. I love the way the Steelers draft.
(16) Packers - WR Ted Ginn Jr (7/16/32)
Ginn wins the award for biggest questionmark in the first round. He has mocksters taking him top-10, to Minnesota. He has mocksters drafting him at #32, to Indianapolis. Green Bay and KC are the other candidates... all over the board.
(17) Jags - FS Reggie Nelson (14/17/22)
None of the ten mock drafts have Nelson lasting to New England at #24. If he does, I think BB would pull the trigger. The question is, will he trade this high for him? I think not.
(18) Bengles - TE Greg Olsen (14/16/ns)
9 of 10 mocks have Cinci taking D at #18. The 10th has them taking Olsen. But, in over half the mock drafts, Olsen is already gone by now. So, this makes some sense, and the Cinci front office will feel they got great value.
(19) Titans - WR Robert Meachem (11/19/30)
Meachem wins the prize for the most mis-spelled name. I've seen Meachum, Meecham... all kinds of crazy stuff. What does this pick mean for David Givens?
(20) Giants - CB Darrelle Revis (13/19/26)
The most common pick for the Giants is Lawrence Timmons (4 of 10). But Revis is better value.
(21) Broncs - DE Jarvis Moss (15/21/26)
Moss is the slam dunk consensus at this pick, taken by Denver in 6 of 10 drafts. wtf. Did Shanny go public with a confession of deeply held man love, or what?
(22) Cowboys - CB Chris Houston (9/22/28)
Houston actually has fans in scouting circles, going as early as 9, 15 and 19. But he most regularly goes to Dallas at this spot. It'll be interesting to see how the CBs actually come off the board on draft day, especially given the difference in size and style with Revis.
(23) Chiefs - WR Dwayne Bowe (19/22/31)
If Bowe slips past the Chiefs, he's likely to last until San Diego at #30.
(24) Pats - LB Jon Beason (18/27/32)
I have to make a confession. According to the methodology I've set out for this mock the pick at #24 should be Lawrence Timmons (20/24/ns), who is rated higher than Beason. But as a Patsfan, I just cant do it. I dont accept that Timmons is on our draft board, especially after bombing the Wonderlic. With Ross, Pos, Beason, Merriweather all still on the board, I just cant type "New England selects Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State". Just watch... that's probably exactly what's going to happen.
(25) Jets - CB Aaron Ross (18/25/ns)
4 of 10 mocks have the Jets taking Ross here. I actually had to look up his scouting report, because he had never made my radar. Late riser, or have I just not been paying attention?
(26) Eagles - LB Lawrence Timmons (20/24/ns)
So, here's where Timmons drops to, based on my twisting of the rules. He's actually a nice fit for the Eagles scheme, where his athleticism and speed can be put to best use. If I had stuck to the rules, this pick would have been Meriweather (21/26/ns) in a landslide.
(27) Saints - LB Paul Posluszny (18/27/32)
Pos is a guy I would have loved to take at 28, even with Beason on the team at 24. Still, I need to put some limits on how much I cheat this process.
(28) Pats - S Brandon Meriweather (21/26/ns)
So, the ripple effect of my swap at #24 is that Meriweather is still available at 28, and is a great value according to the mocksters. If I had taken Timmons at #24, this pick would have been Beason (18/27/32) or Griffin (24/28/ns). Actually, any combination of those players would probably be fine, including the combination where we draft two LBs.
(29) Ravens - OT Joe Staley (21/29/ns)
In 10 mock drafts, Baltimore takes an OT in 9, either Staley of Blalock. Wow. Talk about consensus.
(30) Chargers - WR Dwayne Jarrett (25/30/ns)
I'm surprised that Jerett doesn't go sooner than this, but he's the Charger's pick at #30 in 4 of 10 mock drafts.
(31) Bears - DT Tank Tyler (22/ns/ns)
The Bears' pick is all over the place. Unlike San Diego, where there seems to be consensus, the Bears have to hope for someone like Timmons or Staley or Houston to drop to them. Since that hasn't happened here, Tyler is the most frequent selection (only 2 of 10).
(32) Colts - S Michael Griffin (24/28/ns)
Griffin wasn't picked by the Colts in any of the mocks that I reviewed. In one, they did take Meriweather. But, every other player that was picked by the Colts is off the board, with the exception of DT Justin Harrell (32/ns/ns). I just dont think the Colts would reach for that guy with Griffin still available.
Observation
- For those of us who want to see the Pats draft LB at 24 or 28, it'll be important to watch what the Bengles do at #18. In this mock, they take O. More likely is defense. If they take a LB, and the Giants take LB at #20, then 24 may be Ross, Revis or Griffin, instead of Beason or Posluszny. Or something completely different, like Olsen or Blalock. Or... completely unexpected like Anthony Gonzalez, who didn't crack the first round in a even one of these mocks.
I charted all the players, where they were picked. I accounted for mock draft trades, and washed it all out.
After each player's name, I'll list three numbers: the highest selection they were taken in 10 mocks, the median selection they were taken, and the lowest. For each pick, I'll take the BPA among the players who were taken by that team in at least one mock draft.
(#) Team - Pos Player Name (High/Median/Low)
(1) Raiders - QB Jamarcus Russell (1/1/3)
Russell is the top pick in 7 of 10 mocks. In the other three, Calvin takes the top spot.
(2) Lions - WR Calvin Johnson (1/2/4)
Quinn is the most common selection at #2 (4 mocks). Johnson is only selected by Detroit twice. But he is the type of player who can help any team... even one that has drafted a WR in the 1st over and over.
(3) Browns - QB Brady Quinn (2/3/4)
All that talk that Quinn might fall to Miami at #9 is not in the cards according to these mockers. No one had him lasting beyond the Bucs at #4.
(4) Bucs - OT Joe Thomas (2/4/5)
Thomas is most commonly drafted by Atlanta at #5. But his talent is a draw for the Lions and Browns, too. I dont think the Bucs really need him as much as they need other positions... including QB. Given that, I think the chances of a trade in the top-5 are very good.
(5) Cardinals - DE Gaines Adams (4/6/16)
With the big four off the board, the field opens up. Adams is actually the consensus #6 pick, but it begs the question, who the heck is Arizona going to take? The best the Cards can do is hope that one of the teams in the top-4 reach for Peterson or Okoye, and let Thomas drop to them. Landry is also a common choice, but he generally lasts until #7. Interesting to note that Adams drops to SF @11, St Louis @13 and GreenBay @16 in three minority opinions. That type of pattern raises questions about downside.
(6) Redskins - DT Amobi Okoye (6/7/13)
Okoye is taken by the Skins in 4 of 10 mocks, and is very clearly favored over Alan Branch. Also fits a need.
(7) Vikings - SS Laron Landry (5/7/8)
#7 is the first sweet spot in the draft, where the Vikes can afford to sit and wait to see what falls to them. Adams, Landry, Okoye, Peterson... they'll be able to choose from at least two of them, and feel good that the value is top notch.
(8) Hawks - RB Adrian Peterson (3/8/10)
Peterson is selected as a top-5 pick in 2 mocks, but is most frequently drafted by Atlanta. He never lasts beyond Houston at #10... which is yet another reminder of the Reggie Bush screwup.
(9) Fins - DE Jamaal Anderson (6/8/19)
Anderson is a prospect that leaves me thinking "BUST!". I honestly dont see the appeal. But, he only drops past #9 in 2 out of the 10 mocks I reviewed. I do respect the gutsy mocker who had him dropping all the way to Tennessee at 19.
(10) Texans - DT Alan Branch (5/9/13)
This seems a little late in the top-10 for Branch, but here's another guy who has all the makings of a big time flop. Still, at #10 the Texans are getting good value for the measurables and game experience.
(11) Niners - LB Patrick Willis (11/12/15)
San Francisco is in a tight spot. There is a pretty clear distinction between the top-10 players, and the rest of the field, according to these mocksters. Unless someone reaches for a player like Leon Hall or Ted Ginn in the top-10, the Niners will be the first team to dip into the next echelon of talent. 9 of 10 mock drafts have SF taking a defensive front-7 player, and I'll stay true to that, and give them Willis even though he usually lasts another pick or two.
(12) Bills - RB Marshawn Lynch (12/12/17)
Lynch is a clear favorite at this spot. In fully half of the mock drafts he's taken at #12. Who am I to question an apparent sure thing?
(13) Rams - CB Leon Hall (9/13/19)
Hall is another guy who draws a mixed opinion from mocksters. As high as #9, as low as #19? And no one team who looks like they've really fallen in love, anywhere in that range.
(14) Panthers - OT Levi Brown (10/14/ns)
Brown actually slips out of the first round in one mock. He is most commonly drafted by Houston in 4 of 10 mock drafts. Interesting that most mocks have Carolina taking TE Olsen at this spot. But in this case, Carolina decides Brown is their best value. That starts Olsen sliding a bit.
(15) Steelers - DE Adam Carricker (11/15/18)
Nice fit. I love the way the Steelers draft.
(16) Packers - WR Ted Ginn Jr (7/16/32)
Ginn wins the award for biggest questionmark in the first round. He has mocksters taking him top-10, to Minnesota. He has mocksters drafting him at #32, to Indianapolis. Green Bay and KC are the other candidates... all over the board.
(17) Jags - FS Reggie Nelson (14/17/22)
None of the ten mock drafts have Nelson lasting to New England at #24. If he does, I think BB would pull the trigger. The question is, will he trade this high for him? I think not.
(18) Bengles - TE Greg Olsen (14/16/ns)
9 of 10 mocks have Cinci taking D at #18. The 10th has them taking Olsen. But, in over half the mock drafts, Olsen is already gone by now. So, this makes some sense, and the Cinci front office will feel they got great value.
(19) Titans - WR Robert Meachem (11/19/30)
Meachem wins the prize for the most mis-spelled name. I've seen Meachum, Meecham... all kinds of crazy stuff. What does this pick mean for David Givens?
(20) Giants - CB Darrelle Revis (13/19/26)
The most common pick for the Giants is Lawrence Timmons (4 of 10). But Revis is better value.
(21) Broncs - DE Jarvis Moss (15/21/26)
Moss is the slam dunk consensus at this pick, taken by Denver in 6 of 10 drafts. wtf. Did Shanny go public with a confession of deeply held man love, or what?
(22) Cowboys - CB Chris Houston (9/22/28)
Houston actually has fans in scouting circles, going as early as 9, 15 and 19. But he most regularly goes to Dallas at this spot. It'll be interesting to see how the CBs actually come off the board on draft day, especially given the difference in size and style with Revis.
(23) Chiefs - WR Dwayne Bowe (19/22/31)
If Bowe slips past the Chiefs, he's likely to last until San Diego at #30.
(24) Pats - LB Jon Beason (18/27/32)
I have to make a confession. According to the methodology I've set out for this mock the pick at #24 should be Lawrence Timmons (20/24/ns), who is rated higher than Beason. But as a Patsfan, I just cant do it. I dont accept that Timmons is on our draft board, especially after bombing the Wonderlic. With Ross, Pos, Beason, Merriweather all still on the board, I just cant type "New England selects Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State". Just watch... that's probably exactly what's going to happen.
(25) Jets - CB Aaron Ross (18/25/ns)
4 of 10 mocks have the Jets taking Ross here. I actually had to look up his scouting report, because he had never made my radar. Late riser, or have I just not been paying attention?
(26) Eagles - LB Lawrence Timmons (20/24/ns)
So, here's where Timmons drops to, based on my twisting of the rules. He's actually a nice fit for the Eagles scheme, where his athleticism and speed can be put to best use. If I had stuck to the rules, this pick would have been Meriweather (21/26/ns) in a landslide.
(27) Saints - LB Paul Posluszny (18/27/32)
Pos is a guy I would have loved to take at 28, even with Beason on the team at 24. Still, I need to put some limits on how much I cheat this process.
(28) Pats - S Brandon Meriweather (21/26/ns)
So, the ripple effect of my swap at #24 is that Meriweather is still available at 28, and is a great value according to the mocksters. If I had taken Timmons at #24, this pick would have been Beason (18/27/32) or Griffin (24/28/ns). Actually, any combination of those players would probably be fine, including the combination where we draft two LBs.
(29) Ravens - OT Joe Staley (21/29/ns)
In 10 mock drafts, Baltimore takes an OT in 9, either Staley of Blalock. Wow. Talk about consensus.
(30) Chargers - WR Dwayne Jarrett (25/30/ns)
I'm surprised that Jerett doesn't go sooner than this, but he's the Charger's pick at #30 in 4 of 10 mock drafts.
(31) Bears - DT Tank Tyler (22/ns/ns)
The Bears' pick is all over the place. Unlike San Diego, where there seems to be consensus, the Bears have to hope for someone like Timmons or Staley or Houston to drop to them. Since that hasn't happened here, Tyler is the most frequent selection (only 2 of 10).
(32) Colts - S Michael Griffin (24/28/ns)
Griffin wasn't picked by the Colts in any of the mocks that I reviewed. In one, they did take Meriweather. But, every other player that was picked by the Colts is off the board, with the exception of DT Justin Harrell (32/ns/ns). I just dont think the Colts would reach for that guy with Griffin still available.
Observation
- For those of us who want to see the Pats draft LB at 24 or 28, it'll be important to watch what the Bengles do at #18. In this mock, they take O. More likely is defense. If they take a LB, and the Giants take LB at #20, then 24 may be Ross, Revis or Griffin, instead of Beason or Posluszny. Or something completely different, like Olsen or Blalock. Or... completely unexpected like Anthony Gonzalez, who didn't crack the first round in a even one of these mocks.
