Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Holy Diver, Aug 8, 2012.
Lets make our predictions:
According to wikipedia, the race is over.
The Wisconsin Governor is not on this list?
I think he has to choose Rubio. All the polls seem to show that Romney is in trouble, and Rubio would probably allow him to win Florida and help him with Hispanics in other states, plus Rubio is fairly well liked by the Tea Party, thus to me Rubio seems like Mitt's best choice.
My guess is Rubio, if not then Portman (Ohio).
I'm going with Paul Ryan.
Which may be just wishful thinking on my part.
Ryan would attract The Tea Party, hard right voters who aren't entirely convinced that Romney is on their side. He'd also bring some Wisconsin votes with him and Wisconsin's going to be a battleground state.
Who cares, no matter how bad things get with war, drone killing, gitmo soccer balls, golf & economy Obama will still get re-elected, Romney is no fighter, he's a wimp, he'll just keep grinning and let the likes of that little creep Harry Reid kick the sh!t out of him.
God Watch Over Us (one can only imagine what Obama will do when he knows he has nothing to lose) Obama hates America so does his wife.
Those polls are false for the simple reason that they don't even match the 2008 turnout.
Couple of facts. The dem turnout is going to be about 5% less minimum the pubbie turnout is going to be 5% more. Obama will never get any higher than he did in 08 with blacks and hispanics.
Obama has burnt through more money than he has taken in.
Romney hasn't named his VP choice, where his VP can trash and slander.
There hasn't been a convention yet where the pubbies can show off there young diverse talent ie: Ryan,Martinez,Christie,Rubio,Rice etc. all the ones that never,ever get any play from the mainstream media.
And the biggest one.Romney has yet to unleash hell in the form of tons of cash that he will have after the convention.
I really think he'd get more milage and flash with Rubio but Ryan is young (41) energetic, articulate, good looking and has forgotten more about the economy and budgets than Bambi or Biden know.Ryan would absolutley destroy either one on the state of the economy looking forward. Has midwestern appeal, honest with no baggage. Be awfully hard to paint him as a murderer.
But not hard at all to paint him as someone who'll throw grandma off the train.
Say what you want about the polls, Patra, but they're all we have to go by. I don't put much stock in polls until later in the campaign season. Nonetheless, if the polls are even roughly accurate, if the election was held today, Obama would win.
Ryan is a good candidate, but I don't think he'll be chosen because his budget, which largely defines him, would compel Romney to campaign for Ryan's budget, something he had nothing to do with, and which is politically controversial, particularly with regard to Medicare. I'd be thrilled with Ryan as his VP choice. The one's I like least are Rubio and Christie. Rubio could eat into Obama's Hispanic support and Christie is a very well spoken, smart guy. I don't think it will be Christie because he's actually more impressive than Romney in terms of his speaking ability. But, Patra, I hope you are right. Go Ryan!
I think the polls show anything but Romney being in trouble. The most recent polls have badly skewed the dem sample. Plus, Romney hasn't begun to spend any money yet. This race is going to be very, very tight.
I voted for Rubio. I'd personally like to see Christie, but it will be Rubio most likely. I don't know too much about him, except that he's hispanic, from Florida, and seems intelligent from the few times I've seen him speak in interviews. Other than that, I don't know too much. He'll be the pick imo because he comes from a swing state that Romney has to have (Florida), and is of a certain ethnicity that each party is bending over for. Aside from that, I don't think that they want to potentially remove Ryan from the house, and Christie would mean an all North East, blue state republican ticket. It's not a big deal to me personally, but I don't see how that helps the ticket, outside of the individual qualities of the candidate himself.
All that being said, watch it be Tim zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzPawlenty, or Bobby Jindal. Jindal would be an interesting choice. I don't know too much about him either. I hear Ayotte's name mentioned, but my god I hope that's just fodder. One dark horse candidate to consider in McDonnel from Virginia. Swing state governor from a southern state.
It will be Rubio though. So long as he wants it.
Thats fine. But what you have is an oversampling of dems that simply won't be the case on election day.
Obama has killed Romney in the battleground states on TV and only leads by 6 or so?
Just like Wisconsin when all the press Walker would be rode out on a rail and the whole anti Walker narrative that went on the people of Wisc. did the right thing and that was with more dems voting than pubs.
Let me put it simply. People showed up for Hope and change whatever the hell that was. They will not show up for divide and blame.
Kind of like the Red Sox tickets bought in March for a game in September. Nobody wants to go..
Where are you getting your information? It's wrong.
Romney has certainly begun to spend his money, and he has less on hand than Obama because Obama has been raising money longer. Between Obama and his Superpacs, he's spent about $90 million on ads, while Romney and his Superpacs have spent close to $140 million. Right now, Obama still has a lot more money than Romney.
Mad Money: Tracking TV campaign ads in the 2012 presidential campaign - The Washington Post
Bobby Jindal is one hell of a guy. I'd rather watch paint dry than lsten to him talk, but he has about 75% favorable rating as gov. in La. He is Indian. I think Cherokee too...3,2,1..
He is a hands on top down policy wonk.Watched him in a press conference one time when La. was expecting another katrina like Hurricane he went on for about 45 minutes reading a check list of what was ready for the storm from rescue workers to cupcake saleman. What a real executive would do.
Also saw him get scolded by Bambi because Jindal asked him what the fxck are you doing? During the oil spill crisis while Bobby was down there covered in oil wondering where the hell the stuff was he requested to clean up and protect stuff.Good man.Very good man.
I believe, and I could be wrong, that Romney cannot spend money until he's officially the nominee. What money that is, or what he might be spending in the mean time, maybe someone else can answer more specifically. I think it's super pac money you're seeing now, or money he still has from the primary. Again, this is what I keep reading/hearing in the news.
So according to your WaPO links Obama is lying to his supporters (fundraising emails & letters) when he says he is going to be outspent by Romney.
He says he is in danger of being outspent. I don't think he said he will be outspent, but I also think he's arguing about post-convention spending. That's when the Republicans are likely to have an advantage, though it doesn't take into account the money Obama has already spent building his ground game.
Wish you would have made the poll public ... so we can see who picked who.
You've had the power to see the poll all along, just click your heels 3 times and say "There's no place like poll....There's no place like poll....There's no place like poll...."
(on the real...I thought it was public?)
make this poll public!
Also is there a Vegas line ???
I have yet to look, but there is a HUGE spread if Condi is the pick. I've got 15 points @ $500 with a certain member of this messageboard.
so you know I'm pulling for Rice, Rice, baby.
I honestly think Romney's best bet is to pick someone like Sinbad.
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