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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, May 14, 2009.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think you have to be asleep at the wheel to not recognize that this franchise has put itself in a position where it will be a legitmate SB contender for as long as BB stays. Its gone on too long and through too many challenges and changes to see it as anything other than a better overall plan for a franchise than almost every other one.

    With the coaching staff changes, I don't expect the Colts to ever be a contender again, at least until they rebuild after 4 or so years of mediocrity that is to come.
    In our division, I see all 3 teams as non-threatening. Each seem thoroughly mediocre, equally likely to stay mediocre, improve or digress, but none seem to have reached the point where they are legitimate contenders or a challenge to our supremacy.

    Who do you see as our primary SB competition over the next 4-5 years?

    I think Pittsburgh will always be in the mix, but I see a downward trend for them coming.
    I think they have aged and gone backward in the trenches and were able to mask it short term but over the longterm they will be a playoff team, but not SB caliber.
    I think SD will have to restart with a new coach, new RB and other changes before they could contend for a SB. Norv Turner will not lead a team to a SB as HC in our lifetime, so the day he is fired is the day they start working back up the ladder that he dragged them down.
    Tennesse and Jacksonville are impressive organizations to me. (like Pitt) They are consistent, and both seem like they could get on that run and contend as often as not.
    Baltimore, IMO, is headed backward as the defense ages and declines.

    It seems like the real competition is going to come from a rebuild effort. I kind of see that few of the teams that have been pretty good look able to elevate to the next level, and the teams that have started over have a better chance.
    A lot of those rebuilds have familiar faces, Mangini, McDaniels, Pioli leading them.


    If we assume that we would play in the next 5 consecutive AFCC games (not because we will but to illustrate the point) who would you expect we would face in most of them?

    My guesses would be Tennessee, Jacksonville, Puittsburgh, in that order.
     
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Stability...
    -- Pittsburgh: Rooneys, Colbert, Lebeau
    -- Baltimore: Ozzie
    -- Tennessee: Fisher
    -- Indianapolis: Polian

    Indy is being put to the test this year, but Polian is still there for now so discounting them long term isn't in the cards yet.
    Pittsburgh still has key building blocks in place.
    Baltimore is schizophrenic, perhaps due to ownership, but as long as Ozzie is onboard, they'll keep getting good tools to work with.
    Tennessee, Fisher is always to be respected.

    Denver will be back, and I don't discount the Pioli factor in KC. Houston is showing signs of life. Jacksonville under a new GM may evolve, it's early days. The key in Miami is the new owner, just how long he puts of with Parcells will be key. Cleveland is hampered by ownership. Oakland, Cincy, NYJ, Buffalo...more of the same. San Diego A.J. isn't in BB's personnel league despite the hits.
     
  3. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Hmm, so young AFC teams with a lot of talent and good coaching?
    1. Don't see Pitt falling off a cliff anytime soon
    2. Indy will continue to be pretty good as long as Peyton and Polian are around. Not sure if they'll be a top tier team for the whole time, but they'll be good, at least.
    3. I expect Miami to take a step back this year, but there's no denying that Parcells can build the hell out of a team. They could be strong competitors for a long time, especially if Henne turns out to be the real deal.
    4. If the Chargers ever wise up and get a better coach, they could be in.
    5. I have a lot of faith in Pioli- I wouldn't be surprised if KC is in the mix a lot sooner than one would think.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2009
  4. jcdavey

    jcdavey In the Starting Line-Up

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    how do people still get away with this fallacy that norv turner dragged sd down? when the simple fact is, that norv turner has been one of their best HC ever (this is statistically factual in terms of afc west titles and playoff wins)


    so how do the retards keep up with this lie that norv dragged sd down?

    are they just retarded?
     
  5. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #24 Jersey

    1) Pittsburgh- The Best Defense in the NFL will always be our mainthreat IMO. I don't care about their offensive line or anything else. They can play tough football and they are almost always in the playoffs. I think we would play them twice.
    2) Indy-As long as Peyton Manning is at QB and they will be our biggest Rival, they always play us extremely tough and they can put points on the board to match ours and they have a fast defense. I think we would play the Colts twice.
    3) Baltimore/Tennessee/San Diego-I put all of these teams in the same boat. All can play defense (some better than others...Baltimore) and all have good young QB (some better than others....Baltimore) and all can run the football. The combination of these three makes for a good contenders. I think that we could play any of these teams in order at least once.


    The Nemesis.......The New York Giants are the toughest team we could face in the Superbowl, IMO when healthy the are just as good if not better than Pittsburgh. Outstanding Pass Rush, Outstanding Run Game, Good young QB (debatable). I cant see them squandering a 14 point lead in the 4Th quarter or even the third for that matter. They are the best team in the NFC in the toughest division. I actually like how our division got tougher because it will prepare us for January and February. This is the one team I don't want to see come February but they are beatable.
     
  6. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Andy,

    I thoroughly agree.

    Few seem to recognize that the present Patriots are not in any way related to the Super bowl winning Teams of the first half decade. Those teams had a dominant Defense with older veterans almost all gone now. As a matter of fact the only players still there are Bruschi, and Seymour and Warren on Defense. But those last two weren't really the core of those Super bowl clubs, although Seymour casts a very big shadow.

    But three players doesn't make a Defense. All the others are rebuilding projects or added in the past half decade. All that remains is to find another Pass rushing OLB and Crabel may be it. And find a replacement fro Bruschi when he retires . And McKenzie may already be it.

    On Offense the situation is similar. The older Offensive stars are Brady Light, Neal and Kevin Faulk. Everyone else is essentially new. The Offense is slightly older than the Defense but only because Belichick rebuilt it two or three seasons ago. The 2007 edition of the Patriots Offense bore no relationship to the plodding, dink and dunk Offenses of the earlier era.

    We began to resemble the Colts,with record setting passing Offense. In 2008 we added back the running game and now that Offense is the best or near best in the League. In short, the dynasty has been regenerated and reconstituted without anyone really noticing. it is set to be fine for four or five years without a whole lot more tinkering to do to it.

    What little remains is to start finding transitional Offensive linemen to take Light and Neal's jobs in three or four years. And Belichick has even embarked on that endeavor with Volmer and Ornberg. He will probably add another OL high, next draft season just as he adds another DE--> OLB candidate,as well.

    With what he has as draft picks he might even decide to trade up to get a pair of star candidates, for those two positions. That is if Crabel and Woods fail, and Volmer can't project to LOT, eventually.

    BB has reconstructed his new younger, faster, JUGGERNAUT without any one paying attention, or noticing.

    Our present fans are wailing and gnashing their teeth over what amounts to the the identity of the backup, reserve SOLB behind newly promoted starter Pierre Woods. And the fact that the pass rush disappeared when half the pass rushers went on IR, even as the injury scarred Defense finished in the Top Ten, with a sack total down by all of 9 sacks from the average of the last decade.

    They wail over the TD scoring percentage in the Red Zone, not recognizing that Red Zone visits by opponents were the lowest number of any team in the League. Bend but don't Break broke most opponents Offenses long before they reached our red zone.

    As to who will be our future competition, I would not rule to the Chiefs. The previous regime had laid a good foundation for rebuilding by securing a valid LOT,and a few other good, young Offensive linemen. They also added some good Defensive linemen, Linebackers, and Defensive backs. Then Pioli got there and added a franchise QB in the form of Matt Cassel. I agree the Steelers will have a reconstruction coming. As will the Chargers.

    If the TUNA breaks tradition and sticks around in Miami, he will whip that franchise back into a contender. But he will have to take a few steps back, as the Single Wing will return to the history books. It didn't fool anybody in the last quarter of the season, after the novelty wore off.

    I'll even add a novel idea. Houston has been steadily building, they just might break out into a legitimate contender. Remember that the Colts are an Offense in search of a complementary Defense. But Peyton is now 35, and how many more years does he have?
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2009
  7. dhamz

    dhamz In the Starting Line-Up

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    14-2 the year before him
    11-5 his first year
    8-8 his second year
     
  8. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

  9. jcdavey

    jcdavey In the Starting Line-Up

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    18-1
    to 11-5

    i guess the pats are being dragged down by belichik

    get real guys...try and use your brain
     
  10. dhamz

    dhamz In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yeah - comparing a guy with 3 rings to a guy whose career coaching record is 77-95 is a good comparison.

    The year before Norv came the Chargers were considered by most the best team in football. Two years later they are a .500 team that only made the playoffs because they played in the worst division in football.
     
  11. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    If the same question was asked 5 years ago, would anyone have predicted that the Steelers would win the Super Bowl twice, Patriots, Giants, and Colts once.
     
  12. dhamz

    dhamz In the Starting Line-Up

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    The Giants? Probably not but I think a lot of people would have had the other 3 teams on the top of their lists of title contenders.
     
  13. jcdavey

    jcdavey In the Starting Line-Up

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    no rings since the spygate ;-)
     
  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Pittsburgh is our AFC rival as of now, and for at least a couple of years.
    ===========================
    I agree that Indy will not survive the loss of Dungy. The jags and houston are improving.

    I think that baltimore is still in the mix for a couple of years. After that. who knows.

    The division is ours.

    The big question I ahve is out west. What a mess! For now, the chargers are the best until shown otherwise.
     
  15. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't see any reason to believe that the Steelers, Colts and Chargers won't continue to be playoff teams due to their front offices and understanding of how to be competitive in the salary cap era. With Parcells in Miami I'll add the Dolphins to this group, but his past history suggests that he may not be there for very long. The fifth team I would add is the Chiefs since they now have Pioli, but KC won't be there for another year or two in my opinion.

    On the other end of the spectrum the teams most likely to continue to fail would be the Bengals and the Raiders, though I suppose that is stating the obvious.
     
  16. patsox23

    patsox23 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I wouldn't bet on Tennessee or Jacksonville in the next couple of years, 'though maybe down the line. I expect both to drop off in 2009. While Tennessee especially has good coaching and F.O., I think they'll feel the effect of Haynesworth's absence and the unlikelihood of Kerry Collins repeating a pretty impressive 2008.
     
  17. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Yeah, not to split hairs etc, but as of a month or 2 ago Peyton Manning was 32. He turned 33 about 6 weeks ago, and says he expects to play 7-8 more years. As long as he's still around, they'll probably be a contender.
     
  18. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Any team with a strong defense, a competent coach and a decent quarterback has to be reckoned with. So those AFC teams are good choices.

    But the swings of the NFL are always great. It's hard to believe that a team that the Patriots *crushed* last season almost won the Superbowl. So it wouldn't surprise me if the Dolphins went forward from last year. And then there's the NFC teams: Giants, certainly, and I wouldn't bet against the Eagles (but then I say that every year ...)
     
  19. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #24 Jersey

    Are you seriously trying to say that the "Marty Ball" Chargers were a better team than the Norv Turner Chargers?:singing: Wow! Marty's Playoff record-5-13...Norv Turner-4-3. 3 of those playoff wins by Norv are with the Chargers. The Chargers hadn't won a playoff game since 1994. That's why Norv has been more successful with the Chargers than Marty. I don't know how anybody could say that he has ruined the Chargers when he led them to their first playoff victory in over a decade. Both coaches got their teams to the playoffs, Norv actually won a few games. Would you rather go 14-2 win the division and be one and done or go 8-8, win the division being one of the hottest teams in the NFL and advance to the divisional round? He was even one win from being in the Superbowl.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2009
  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :confused:

    The Chargers of 2006 were 14-2. The reason they didn't win in the playoffs is because the Patriots beat them.

    The Chargers of 2007 were 11-5. The reason they didn't get to the Super Bowl is because the Patriots beat them. Both teams they beat in the playoffs were teams they beat in the regular season.

    Trying to pin that playoff loss nonsense on Schottenheimer about this is simply ridiculous. Marty took a team that hadn't had a winning season in 6 years and had only 1 losing season in his 5 year tenure. Turner's currently got the team trending in the opposite direction, much like the Pete Carroll trend when he took over the Patriots. It's even worse, though, because Parcells never got the Patriots to any more than 11 wins and had 2 losing seasons out of 4.

    And I'm someone who defended the Turner hiring.
     
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