Ridley: "Tom Brady runs that organization"

[naF staP]

Man, I wish Tom would hurry and sign Wes Welker.

 

[Bill B.]

B.S. Tom Brady controls anything...he can't even cut his own hair without first getting permission from the godmother Gisele.

Sorry, but I have to think that if you had a woman that beautiful you would probably not only let her tell you how to cut your hair, you would let her tell you how to dress. I know I would. Giselle has to get Tom some dancing lessons, though.

 

[Bill B.]

Not bitter at all. Just speaking the truth as painful as it may be to the blinded-by-their-Tommy-love crowd.

After seeing QBs like Hugh Millen, Tommy Hodson, and Joe Kapp play I could not help falling in love with Brady. He brought 3 rings to the Patriots which is 3 more than anyone else.

 

[Bill B.]

7.) In 2007, if Meriweather holds on to the INT, the Patriots win.

8. ) In 2007, if Meriweather stays with his man, Manning probably never makes the throw to Tyree.

I think you mean Assante Samual. That is why I was not sorry to see him go.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Sorry, but I have to think that if you had a woman that beautiful you would probably not only let her tell you how to cut your hair, you would let her tell you how to dress. I know I would. Giselle has to get Tom some dancing lessons, though.

My wife controls those aspects of my life that I care naught about too.
What I like about Brady is that I know someone else is totally whipped too.

 

[Joey007]

1. Kraft runs the organization.
2. Belichick runs the team.
3. Brady runs the offense.

You forgot one, Big Vince runs the D. I mean, come on, the man has a gravitational pull!!

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Some fair points - but re: Welker play, it's never unnecessary to take a wide open pass and catch when it's there for the taking. And let's not forget, they had been put into a 2nd and long with a negative first down play; the chance to move the sticks is worth it. As I've said recently in another thread - I think that was a huge play in that game (the Benny negative yardage). There are many more options on 2nd and 7 or so, and the likelihood of gaining a first down increases dramatically.

In considering the Patriots offensive performance of late - we have to consider level of competition. Those looking for the Patriots to replicate the regular season production in the cold months against the best defenses in the league are going to be disappointed. Of the recent SB victors - all with explosive offenses - Giants, Packers, Saints, Colts, none exactly lit it up with the exception of the Saints, who were playing indoors.

Briefly lets look at that for the heck of it...

Giants '11: 24, 37, 20* (OT), 21
Packers '10: 21, 48, 21, 31
Saints '09: 45, 31, 31
Steelers '08: 35, 23, 27
Giants '07: 24, 21, 23, 17
Colts '06: 23, 15, 38, 29

In each case (minus Saints in 09), we have one big game, the rest in the low twenties or below.

But to make the leap that our offense is not properly constructed, I can't follow you there. Whether we struggled to put up points vs. the Ravens in the AFCCG - a lesser explosive offense does not fare any better.

Keep the offense as is - address the hole at outside receiver and combine that offense with a defense that added some real potential at youth (Hightower, Jones, Wilson, Bequette) to an already improving young defense - and I think we'll see better all around team performances in the playoffs going forward. Again, the playoff performances you are referring to, the offensive production will look much better with a few more possessions in there, I feel confident about that.

It was the third (4th if you count 2nd and 7) time in that series they were in a 2nd and long situation and the first time they failed to get into a favorable position for the next down. If you're taking the stance that a play that worked exactly as designed and failed was a necessary call despite them being in similar situations repeatedly on the very same drive and working their way out with safer calls... well we won't see eye to eye on this.

Ummm you don't have one big game and the rest in the low twenties or below. You have 10 games were teams scored 25 pts or more, 10 games were teams scored 20-24 pts and 2 where they scored less than 20. Even if you drop the Saints that's 7 games were teams scored 25 pts or more; characterizing it as if that's the outlier data while lumping in the sub 20 pt scores with the more standard scores to make it appear common is disingenuous.

The fact that you can't expect the Pats to replicate what they do during the regular season is exactly my point... An explosive game plan that leads to <20 points is usually a detriment to the team because there are a lot of <2 min drives and TOs in there.

I don't think I ever said that the offense is poorly constructed. If I did it was in error; I think it's one of the best constructed offenses in the league.

I agree the team this season is rounding out nicely and should definitely be improved on defense and offense.

And @thatllmovethechains, since you seem to know stats well and enjoy numbers, let me run this by you:

Number of possessions by Super Bowl, excluding kneeldowns at halfs, with OFFENSIVE points scored by winner (ie...I'm taking out the Hayden, Harrison, Porter and Collins pick 6's to make my point more clear...the fact that four of the last six SBs had pick 6's has to be some odd anomaly in and of itself):

SB46: 17 total possessions, 21 offensive points by victor
SB45: 22 total possessions, 24 offensive points by victor
SB44: 16 total possessions, 24 offensive points by victor
SB43: 19 total possessions, 24 offensive points by victor
SB42: 17 total possessions, 17 offensive points by victor
SB41: 28 total possessions, 23 offensive points by victor

The Patriots have played in two of the three "shortest" games in this span. The Saints-Colts game stacks up as a very similar game in a lot of respects, with two efficient offenses teams battling it out with long drives, only that got capped with a pick-6.

SB46 should be 19 points by victor.

They've also played in two of the two lowest scoring games in that span... When I look at those numbers I'd say you should expect about 9 possessions per side in the SB and to win you need to plan on scoring >21 points. Since I believe the Pats got 9 possessions in each of their SBs it actually appears that possessions haven't been the key issue in them losing their recent SBs.

 

[BradyManny]

Briefly...

Well the problem is the 9th possession didn't come with enough time in either case...

And I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion of 9 possessions anyway looking at those numbers.

Four of the victors had something in common as well - a defensive touchdown.

As for the one big game and then the rest low scoring, I was speaking per team per year. Look at it again. Plus, those #s above include the aforementioned defensive TD.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Briefly...

Well the problem is the 9th possession didn't come with enough time in either case...

And I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion of 9 possessions anyway looking at those numbers.

Four of the victors had something in common as well - a defensive touchdown.

As for the one big game and then the rest low scoring, I was speaking per team per year. Look at it again. Plus, those #s above include the aforementioned defensive TD.

And if you discounted possessions that came with <1 min for each game the total number of possessions would drop as well.

I came to the conclusion of 9 based on an avg of 18.2 possessions per SB if you ditch the 28 possession SB. If you include it the number jumps to 19.8, so about 10 per side, in which case the Pats got robbed of one possession.

It'd be great if the defense could contribute some more, but that doesn't change the fact that what the offense has been doing is underwhelming.

I know what you were doing; my problem is you were making it sound like scoring >25 pts is rare and that scoring <20 pts is common by tossing it in with the low 20s. The fact is that scoring less than 20 pts is a rarity for the SB champion and it's rarer to be able to do it in the SB.

 

[BradyManny]

And if you discounted possessions that came with <1 min for each game the total number of possessions would drop as well.

I came to the conclusion of 9 based on an avg of 18.2 possessions per SB if you ditch the 28 possession SB. If you include it the number jumps to 19.8, so about 10 per side, in which case the Pats got robbed of one possession.

It'd be great if the defense could contribute some more, but that doesn't change the fact that what the offense has been doing is underwhelming.

I know what you were doing; my problem is you were making it sound like scoring >25 pts is rare and that scoring <20 pts is common by tossing it in with the low 20s. The fact is that scoring less than 20 pts is a rarity for the SB champion and it's rarer to be able to do it in the SB.

But you could just as easily look at it that the average of possessions in the games the Pats weren't involved in was 20.75 - which is much closer to league average (which I think falls around 11 possessions per team).

The offense has had some underwhelming playoff performances - notably the Ravens game - but I really think SB46 rests squarely on the defense's inability to do a single thing to help that team win. The offense was given horrendous field position and only so many cracks at it. If it was playing alongside a competent defense, then the three huge mistakes they made (Brady INT, safety, Welker drop) are not necessarily enough to derail it.

Just consider that the Giants made four just as huge mistakes on the other side (Manning throwing a potential-pick 6 right at Mayo that fortuitously ends up as a TD to Cruz, three fumbles, one called back on penalty and two with no Patriots in sight) that could've just as easily dictated the outcome of the game as well.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

But you could just as easily look at it that the average of possessions in the games the Pats weren't involved in was 20.75 - which is much closer to league average (which I think falls around 11 possessions per team).

The offense has had some underwhelming playoff performances - notably the Ravens game - but I really think SB46 rests squarely on the defense's inability to do a single thing to help that team win. The offense was given horrendous field position and only so many cracks at it. If it was playing alongside a competent defense, then the three huge mistakes they made (Brady INT, safety, Welker drop) are not necessarily enough to derail it.

Just consider that the Giants made four just as huge mistakes on the other side (Manning throwing a potential-pick 6 right at Mayo that fortuitously ends up as a TD to Cruz, three fumbles, one called back on penalty and two with no Patriots in sight) that could've just as easily dictated the outcome of the game as well.

Yes, if you leave in a clear outlier and then use an arbitrary reason to reduce the sample size to the point that that outlier can have a ridiculous effect on the data it does say what you want it to. That also seems like a completely valid and reasonable way to look at it... If you toss out the outlier, you end up @ 19 possessions. I actually bought the argument that the Pats were robbed of possessions until this data.

The defense did their primary job which was prevent points. That was literally the only thing they did. If you want to say they didn't do anything to help the offense that'd be 100% correct. However in that case you'd have to look at what the offense did to help them...

Now the offense did help out a bit by putting together 3 long scoring drives, another long drive where they pinned the Giants inside the 20, and pinning the giants inside the 10 with an INT. On the other side you have 3 drives were they failed to produce a 1st down and another where they were barely on the field for a minute, which was another drive where they were moving the ball effectively before going deep and killing the drive...

Agreed that the Giants got insanely lucky with TOs and big plays.

 

[BradyManny]

Yes, if you leave in a clear outlier and then use an arbitrary reason to reduce the sample size to the point that that outlier can have a ridiculous effect on the data it does say what you want it to. That also seems like a completely valid and reasonable way to look at it...

But 28 is no outlier if you realize that's not abnormal for an NFL game.

16 is just as far from the norm of an NFL game as 28. The average is considered 23 possessions in a game.

Just consider that one game prior in the NFCCG the Giants were involved in a game with 30 possessions excluding kneeldowns, 27 in regulation.

And it's not arbitrary to kick out the Patriots last two games from the sample size, if my point is that their games are smaller, we need to look at other games to see the norm. But that's fine, let's include them and go back further.

Let's increase the sample size:

SB40 - 25 possessions
SB39 - 25 possessions
SB38 - 27 possessions
SB37 - 27 possessions
SB36 - 22 possessions

So from SB36-SB46, we see an average of 22.3 possessions per game - which basically hits the league norm. (Which, BTW, means if we exclude SB42 & 46, the average of the other nine was 23.4. We'll see that number again below).

So the Patriots last two SB efforts were basically 3 quarters of a Super Bowl.

 

[BradyManny]

And if you want to look at more recent history, let's look at these playoffs, and the Patriots and Giants run to the playoffs

SB46 - 17 possesions
AFCCG - 20 possessions
NFCCG - 27 possessions
AFCDG - 24 possessions
NFCDG - 22 possessions
NFCWCG - 22 possessions

Which is the outlier in that?

Average until the Super Bowl was 23 possessions per game. Super Bowl was 17. Same exact drop we see when we look at the last 10 Super Bowls.

EDIT: Updated to throw out Giants- Niners OT possessions.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Good stuff BradyManny.

It does look like the low number of possessions in the recent SBs is uncommon. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues or if they start to normalize back to the norm of ~22 possessions, I'll hope for the latter.

 

[BradyManny]

Good stuff BradyManny.

It does look like the low number of possessions in the recent SBs is uncommon. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues or if they start to normalize back to the norm of ~22 possessions, I'll hope for the latter.

In the Patriots case, I think its no coincidence. A bend + don't break defense combined with an offense that can stay on the field for long stretches leads to fewer possessions. In the case of SB46, its own defense could not get off the field to save its life, so that didn't help.

Saints-Colts also make sense as you have two great offensive teams, neither with a great defense (albeit the Saints had a playmaking one) - its another formula for a game with fewer possessions. Which helps explains the onside kick, IMO.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think you mean Assante Samual. That is why I was not sorry to see him go.

I did, indeed, mean Mr. Samuel. Thanks for catching that.

 

[Uncle Rico]

You know, I usually shake my head when threads go off on tangents, but this is a good one. Thanks folks, lots of good info.