RFA Tenders: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR [merged]

[RobertWeathers]

But that's not the calculation because it totally ignores the risk involved (which is actually two-fold). It's not like the transaction is simply Gostkowski ---> impact player.

1.) The risk that the second rounder you receive for Gostkowski doesn't pan out (and, as we've seen with the Patriots' drafts, their record in the second round is mixed).

2.) The risk that they are unable to adequately replace Gostkowski.

Understood. In my estimation, every transaction & decision has assumed risk. With the high-number of RFAs and deep draft, the Pats have a tremendous opportunity to reload with youth and talent in critical areas. Thats not to discount the importance of Gost, or a kicker for that matter (see AV)- hes outstanding. If asked would I rather have a CB or ILB or WR that will be a top-producer week in/out than a solid kicker, I'd pick the positional player. My personal preference.

BB is taking a calculated gamble- as he should...

 

[dhamz]

Forgot about that..Hmmmm.

Personally I'd like to forget all of that day.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

But that's not the calculation because it totally ignores the risk involved (which is actually two-fold). It's not like the transaction is simply Gostkowski ---> impact player.

1.) The risk that the second rounder you receive for Gostkowski doesn't pan out (and, as we've seen with the Patriots' drafts, their record in the second round is mixed).

2.) The risk that they are unable to adequately replace Gostkowski.

Plus, of course, the fact that you might have solved another team's kicking needs for 5, 10, or even 15 years. And there's the fact that the team that would be the most willing to pay up for a kicker is the Colts.

 

[ricogatenby99]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

You're overrating the value of a second round pick and underrating the value of a quality kicker. This year's playoffs should have really gotten people on board about the importance of a reliable kicker.

I couldn't agree more, Kickers are stinking right now. If somebody puts a stupid offer in, then fair enough, but hes really worth holding onto.

 

[dhamz]

Plus, of course, the fact that you might have solved another team's kicking needs for 5, 10, or even 15 years. And there's the fact that the team that would be the most willing to pay up for a kicker is the Colts.

Are you basing this on anything other than we are Pats fans and hate the Colts?

I see no reason to make the Colts the most likely team to come in with a huge offer and give up a 2nd round pick. Whether you hate him or hate him more, the fact is Bill Polian treats draft picks like gold and he should since he does a great job on draft day. I see the Colts as highly unlikely to shell out big $ and a #2 for a kicker. That is not how they have run their business.

The Cowboys or Redskins are far more likely to make that kind of move.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well Bucky... :youtheman:

 

[reflexblue]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

That argument's about as logical as saying that Plaxico Burress is in prison b/c he caught the winning touchdown in that game that must not be named.

OTOH, Cincinnati and San Diego might know a thing or two about the importance of kickers. . . . :bricks:

Really you May think so, but over the years it seems to me that a clutch kicker is much harder to find than a reciever because there are just More people playing WR, and it pays more. Being a Kicker is an unglamorous low paying gig, for yearts indy went through one kicker after another until they signed AV. And to say that making cluth kicks is the equivilent of a fluck catch is ludicrous. I USE to respect your opinions, but after this i'll have to take them with a grain of salt.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

Really you May think so, but over the years it seems to me that a clutch kicker is much harder to find than a reciever because there are just More people playing WR, and it pays more. Being a Kicker is an unglamorous low paying gig, for yearts indy went through one kicker after another until they signed AV. And to say that making cluth kicks is the equivilent of a fluck catch is ludicrous. I USE to respect your opinions, but after this i'll have to take them with a grain of salt.

Did AV help the Colts win the SB? Certainly. Was the lack of a clutch kicker their downfall in previous years? No, though it might have been one year.

 

[reflexblue]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

Did AV help the Colts win the SB? Certainly. Was the lack of a clutch kicker their downfall in previous years? No, though it might have been one year.

It was there downfall in the playoffs for years. How many times did Vanderjack cost them a playoff game two or three? I don't think clutch kickers grow on trees. IMO its much easier to find a WR than it is to find a money kicker you can count on in Dec, Jan, or Feb. when the games usually become tighter and the outcome may hing on a FG.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

Trading Gost for a 2 (could be a late 2, e.g. the Colts) means giving up a known upper echelon performer for a #2 and then needing to spend a late round pick on another kicker.

The league wide probability of a 2nd round pick starting is 50%. BBs Pats have struggled to equal that metric. In addition, the 5th or 6th round pick rookie kicker has a decent chance of not being up to NFL par. So, unless maybe it's Detroit or St Louis, I'd not trade Gost for a 2.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Agree with the moves, though I was hoping a 1st rd tender for Ghost. But given the hype around the depth of this year's draft I'm not too mad about the 2nd rd. Hopefully long term deals can be reached unless some team really goes hard after Ghost

 

[mcmurtry86]

Re: So have we tendered anyone? [Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]

So what ? I'd trade him for a #2 also.

You won't convince me and I won't convince you. IMO good kickers are a dime a dozen and I'd take a #2 any day for Gotti.

Good cold/bad weather kickers? Teams that play in domes have difficult times finding kickers, teams that play outdoors have an even more narrow group to choose from - which is why their teams hang on to them (e.g. Dawson, Reed, Lindell)

 

[bucky]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

You're overrating the value of a second round pick and underrating the value of a quality kicker. This year's playoffs should have really gotten people on board about the importance of a reliable kicker.

You mean those same playoffs in which Gostkowski went 0 for 1?

 

[bucky]

Well Bucky... :youtheman:

Yeah well. Everyone is right sometimes. It's interesting to read all the same arguments over and over again. The good thing about this move is we'll actually see whether our arguments play themselves out.

I would rate the candidate for Gost like this:

Colts and Jets - have low 2nd round picks, high need for a Kicker and would love to stick it to us. Sexy Rexy might already be on his way over to Gostkowski's house with a poison pill in hand. "guaranteed $20 million bonus if playing on a team where a guy named Brady takes at least 1 snap".

Cowboys, Cardinals, Ravens, Bengals - other 4 teams with low 2nd round picks and relative need. Still, they'll all probably opt to resign their own kickers and save the 2nd round pick.

Everybody else - not an option, as each team is either set at the position, or has a pick in the top half of the 2nd round.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

It was there downfall in the playoffs for years. How many times did Vanderjack cost them a playoff game two or three? I don't think clutch kickers grow on trees. IMO its much easier to find a WR than it is to find a money kicker you can count on in Dec, Jan, or Feb. when the games usually become tighter and the outcome may hing on a FG.

But we do not know whether Gostkowski is that money kicker.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: So have we tendered anyone? [Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]

So what ? I'd trade him for a #2 also.

You won't convince me and I won't convince you. IMO good kickers are a dime a dozen and I'd take a #2 any day for Gotti.

BBFan - First, let me say that Gostkowski isn't just a GOOD kicker. He's an EXCELLENT kicker.

Gost INCREASED his kicks by 3.8 yards per kick this year. He averaged 67.8 yards per kick instead of 64. So, even though the Return yardage went up from 22.3 to 24.4, opposing teams were still starting deeper in their territory.

And the Return Yardage is as much a factor of coverage as it is the kicker. As you well know.

Cold weather, ACCURATE kickers, who do well on kick-offs, are NOT easy to find.

Add to it that if you lose Gostkowski, you now have to find another kicker who can do well in the cold. There aren't many kickers available to begin with. And none of them are as good as Gost.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: So have we tendered anyone? [Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]

BBFan - First, let me say that Gostkowski isn't just a GOOD kicker. He's an EXCELLENT kicker.

Gost INCREASED his kicks by 3.8 yards per kick this year. He averaged 67.8 yards per kick instead of 64. So, even though the Return yardage went up from 22.3 to 24.4, opposing teams were still starting deeper in their territory.

And the Return Yardage is as much a factor of coverage as it is the kicker. As you well know.

Cold weather, ACCURATE kickers, who do well on kick-offs, are NOT easy to find.

Add to it that if you lose Gostkowski, you now have to find another kicker who can do well in the cold. There aren't many kickers available to begin with. And none of them are as good as Gost.

I don't disagree with you - and I sure as hell wouldn't cut him - but despite them sometimes busting a #2 pick is a heck of a valued commodity and that pick would be worth the difference between Gotti and whoever we replaced him with, IMO. Believe me, I see the other side but #2s are very valuable to me.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

You mean those same playoffs in which Gostkowski went 0 for 1?

Gost is 9 for 11 in the Play-offs including his miss this year.
And, his miss didn't cost the Patriots the game against Baltimore.

Also, tanked was pointing to the Cowboys who dumped Nick Folk right before the play-offs and it cost them.

What is your counter to the fact that Gost increased his kick-off yardage by nearly 4 yards (3.8) per kick and has steadily increased the number of touchbacks he's kicked?

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Re: So have we tendered anyone? [Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]

BBFan - First, let me say that Gostkowski isn't just a GOOD kicker. He's an EXCELLENT kicker.

Gost INCREASED his kicks by 3.8 yards per kick this year. He averaged 67.8 yards per kick instead of 64. So, even though the Return yardage went up from 22.3 to 24.4, opposing teams were still starting deeper in their territory.

And the Return Yardage is as much a factor of coverage as it is the kicker. As you well know.

Cold weather, ACCURATE kickers, who do well on kick-offs, are NOT easy to find.

Add to it that if you lose Gostkowski, you now have to find another kicker who can do well in the cold. There aren't many kickers available to begin with. And none of them are as good as Gost.

:agree: and add to that how many games come down to a kick. Plus BB likes kickers;look at Vinitieri. When they unloaded Him it was like the shot heard round the world. How many kickers did he try out before he narrowed it down to 2 lol. BB likes his kickers, and his punters too. How many of THEM did we try out? Then there was some sort of drama over a holder iirc.

BB loves them and he's got one in Gost.

 

[bucky]

Re: Update: Mankins 1+3, Gost 2, Woods ROFR]Merged several times

Gost is 9 for 11 in the Play-offs including his miss this year.
And, his miss didn't cost the Patriots the game against Baltimore.

Also, tanked was pointing to the Cowboys who dumped Nick Folk right before the play-offs and it cost them.

What is your counter to the fact that Gost increased his kick-off yardage by nearly 4 yards (3.8) per kick and has steadily increased the number of touchbacks he's kicked?

That's true. But it breaks down like this - 8 for 8 as a rookie and 1 for 3 since.

It's true he didn't cost them the game directly, but by that same logic, Graham didn't cost the Bengals the game against the Jets either. He missed 2 FGs and they lost by 10. Sure there are momentum swings, but it's hard to quantify those.

I'm not going to counter your argument because I like Gostkowski as a kicker and I would love for him to get signed to a long term deal here. But at the same time, I don't think he's so good that he'd be worth losing a 2nd round pick. So if some delusional team, like say the Jets or Colts wants to sign him and give us their 2nd round pick, I'll would love that too. As much as everyone loves to point to Chad Jackson and Wheatley, that pick could just as easily turn into the next Branch, Light, or Vollmer. Based on previous drafting, there's a 50-50 chance that a 2nd round pick turns into a significant impact player.