I don't expect that he will be. As long as there's any reasonable chance he can play within 2 months, you leave him on the roster. Why wouldn't you? Even a 10% chance that he can play at 80% in the Super Bowl is more valuable to this team than anything the 53rd guy has to offer. If Gronk's IRed, IMO that means they're pretty much certain he can't recover in time to play in a potential Super Bowl appearance.
I know some people in the media read yesterday's statement as the Pats indicating they'd IR Gronk today. I read it as them cautioning everyone not to read too much into it when they don't IR Gronk. It doesn't mean they expect him back, and it doesn't mean he's some sort of fragile wuss or not-team-player if they make the AFCCG or Super Bowl and he can't play. It means exactly what they said: he probably won't be healthy enough to play at any point this season, but they're going to hold out for the possibility as long as there's any possibility to hold out for, because he's just that important.
Belichick's a smart guy, he knows exactly how this media circus is going to unfold. By not placing Gronk on IR, everyone will assume the Pats expect him back at some point this year. A couple months from now, the Pats host some mediocre team in the divisional round and more likely than not we'll knock them off and advance. All of a sudden, the Pats are in the AFCCG yet again, we're facing a formidable opponent, and Gronk's 7 weeks into what's been billed as an 8 week recovery. Some pants-on-head idiot in the media will dish up the following hot take:
"Ben Roethlisberger always comes back early - if Gronk was really tough and a team player he'd be on the field this Sunday". Friday rolls around, he's ruled out again, and everyone turns on him. Starts questioning if he's a team player, if there's conflict between him and the Patriots staff, if they disagree on whether he's ready to go, etc. etc.
Next, say they win the AFCCG. Now everyone's convinced he's definitely got to play in the Super Bowl. Why not IR him 2 months ago otherwise? The national and local media breathlessly report on Gronk's status, and in the overwhelmingly likely event that he's just not ready to play, he absorbs most of the fallout. People suddenly start questioning his conditioning and his rehab and his desire to help the team. Chris Mortensen invents an 'inside source' claiming that he reinjured his back doing keg stands. Stephen A. Smith claims he's getting a free pass because he's white. Some random Jet/Bill/Raven claims Gronk is a ***** and isn't that good anyway. At some point, Curran/Reiss have to try to inject some sanity into this giant, hysterical circlejerk, and now that's made easier because they can point to a statement two ****ing months ago explaining that nobody expected or even reasonably hoped for him to make it back by February.
That's absolutely what will happen if the Pats make a deep playoff run and Gronk has a standard recovery timeline. And it's really, really unfair to Gronk. So that's what yesterday's statement goes back to: Gronk isn't heading to IR--at least not yet--but that doesn't mean we should get it in our heads that he'll be ready. The chances are slim enough that that's an unfair expectation to place on him. If he was damn near anyone else, the Pats would just IR him today and be done with it. But since it's Gronk they're holding out some faint hope, which should not under any circumstances be confused with expectation.
I'm going to bookmark this post, because if the Pats make the AFCCG and even Super Bowl I'm 100% positive this is how it's going to go down (assuming the Pats haven't already IRed Gronk by then). And when it happens, we'll at least have yesterday's statement to point back to, although we all know that won't be enough to stop the runaway train that is media sensationalism.
