Report: Danny amendola ‘almost certain’ to miss jets game

[Deus Irae]

There were catches on Sunday that Amendola made that the current version of Welker couldn't make and didn't make last year...

That's nonsense.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yep. It is unfair and pointless to compare Welker 2007 to Amendola 2013. The right comparison is Amendola 2013 vs. Welker 2013 and perhaps more importantly, Amendola 2015+ to Welker 2015+. The future of the Patriots does not end in 2013. Sometimes you need to take 90% production of one player for 5 years instead of 100% production for 2. That's basically what the Pats decided when they bet on Amendola instead of Welker.

Per the Patriots, Welker was their #1 target, so they didn't bet on Amendola instead of Welker.

 

[Rob0729]

That's nonsense.

Absolutely not. Welker has dropped a lot of balls recently including two last week if you count the muffed punt. He doesn't have the surest of hands anymore. What he has over Amendola at this point is primarily his durability and he is better getting off the line. Neither of which are insignificant traits. Amendola has surer hands than Welker at this point and is more trustworthy with tough catches.

 

[PP2]

He wants to shed this injury-prone label, he's got to find a way to play through pain. Sounds like he may not play the next two games.

You don't want to play through a groin injury because they are known for being a nagging injury.

I think it very wise for them to rest him up. We have 10 days layoff after the Jets game, so I am good with it.

 

[Rob0729]

Per the Patriots, Welker was their #1 target, so they didn't bet on Amendola instead of Welker.

When have you ever trusted what the Pats said publicly. Especially since it was Kraft who said it who clearly had an emotional interest in keeping Welker. If you listen to Kraft, Tebow was a virtual lock to make the team.

 

[detpatsfan]

That's nonsense.

Danny Amendola is better than Wes Welker. Bill Belichick made the right move.

 

[Kontradiction]

The question has not be answered. It is trending to that he cannot, but he could have this injury and miss a week or two and never miss another game game in his career.

Missing one or two games due to injury does confirm he is injury prone and cannot stay on the field. Missing a lot more games with more injuries will though. It is a bad start for him, but no guarantee that it will continue.

Sure they are. We have four full seasons worth of data. In three of them, he's missed time. In this one, it already looks like he's going to miss at least one game. It isn't relevant whether the injury is a rare one or a routine one, he's missed time.

 

[detpatsfan]

You don't want to play through a groin injury because they are known for being a nagging injury.

I think it very wise for them to rest him up. We have 10 days layoff after the Jets game, so I am good with it.

Plus why risk further injuring Amendola in the easiest game on our schedule?

Pats 50
Jets 7

 

[Deus Irae]

Absolutely not. Welker has dropped a lot of balls recently including two last week if you count the muffed punt. He doesn't have the surest of hands anymore. What he has over Amendola at this point is primarily his durability and he is better getting off the line. Neither of which are insignificant traits. Amendola has surer hands than Welker at this point and is more trustworthy with tough catches.

Despite what seems to be passing for wisdom here at Patsfans.com in the post-Welker era, dropping one pass does not mean that someone can't catch another.

Also, Welker caught 9 of 11 targets last week.

 

[ensoul]

Saw this coming after he went out with a groin injury then came back a little while later. They obviouisly shot him up with something.

Anyway, par for the course with him. I excpect him to play about 8 games before he gets put on the IR.

 

[Deus Irae]

When have you ever trusted what the Pats said publicly. Especially since it was Kraft who said it who clearly had an emotional interest in keeping Welker. If you listen to Kraft, Tebow was a virtual lock to make the team.

Kraft never claimed Tebow was going to make the team. You keep tossing out the strawmen. Why?

 

[RobAllan]

Danny Amendola is better than Wes Welker. Bill Belichick made the right move.

That's only true if Amendola plays as many games as Welker. He had an injury history prior to coming here, he's already having one here... This does not a right move make.

Of course, we won't know for perspective until after a few seasons, but your statement is foolish given the situation as we know it now.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I'm glad you settled that for us after one game.

like I said im not throwing Amendola under the bus, but come on 676 REC's in a 6 years span. not even Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice ever did that,

has he replaced Welker as the #1 WR on the team yes but im pretty sure he will never put up the numbers that Welker did

 

[Rob0729]

Sure they are. We have four full seasons worth of data. In three of them, he's missed time. In this one, it already looks like he's going to miss at least one game. It isn't relevant whether the injury is a rare one or a routine one, he's missed time.

He missed time his rookie year because he was a healthy inactive his first two games. He had two full years where he didn't miss a game due to injuries. He had two years where he missed significant time due to injuries. You are now turning it into three years. He has had three injuries in four years prior coming to the Patriots. Several Patriots have had more injuries where they missed games than that over the same period of time.

 

[Harrisoned!]

like I said im not throwing Amendola under the bus, but come on 676 REC's in a 6 years span. not even Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice ever did that,

has he replaced Welker as the #1 WR on the team yes but im pretty sure he will never put up the numbers that Welker did

Who is requiring him to do that? The Pats also have Gronk now and have three rookie WRs who will be expected over time to produce a lot more than the outside WRs that NE had other than Moss.

When Moss left, everyone thought the sky would fall because we had no deep threat, yet less than two years after that the team was in the Super Bowl with one of the best statistical offenses of all time.

Again, like Moss, without Welker maybe we take a step back, but long-term you could see his production slowing and a decision was made to move forward before it fell off a cliff. Amendola doesn't have to be Welker 2.0. This team can still be wildly successful if Amendola even only plays 12 games and catches ~80 passes; based on how he played on Sunday, 80 would be pessimistic if he played in 12 games.

 

[Deus Irae]

Danny Amendola is better than Wes Welker. Bill Belichick made the right move.

Thanks for this post. I now know not to take you at all seriously.

 

[BradyManny]

That's nonsense.

Deus - there's no way Welker makes a couple of those catches, specifically the 3rd & 8. He is not physically capable of doing what Danny Amendola did. You have plenty on your side if you want to argue we should've kept Welker in addition to or instead of DA, you don't need this point.

It takes nothing away from Wes, but Danny Amendola is more athletic, bigger and has a larger catch radius, and that was on display a couple times this past Sunday. If he can't stay healthy, then it does us little good.

 

[Rob0729]

Kraft never claimed Tebow was going to make the team. You keep tossing out the strawmen. Why?

Because you seem to only want to quote the Patriots when it suits your needs and dismiss what they say when it doesn't.

The Pats are never going to say "We really didn't want Welker" or that they felt Welker was declining in skills. They just don't do that. Belichick has never said a word about re-signing Welker. He is the decision maker in Foxboro when it comes to personnel. Whatever he said, I wouldn't believe him anyway.

 

[fnordcircle]

Sucks and I'm sure it sucks for Danny most because he clearly wants to play and probably has heard all the people calling him injury prone.

We're gonna need some people to step up - I'm not even sure who is healthy at this point:

Thompkins
Boyce
Edelman
Hooman
Ridley
Blount
Washington

Dobson, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, Gronk and Bolden are all dinged up or out.

 

[emoney_33]

Sure they are. We have four full seasons worth of data. In three of them, he's missed time. In this one, it already looks like he's going to miss at least one game. It isn't relevant whether the injury is a rare one or a routine one, he's missed time.

Well that's simply false. If there is a such thing as being injury prone (i.e. there exists future risk of injury beyond normal) then the type of injury must be meaningful. Unless you have evidence that Amendola is structurally built to be prone to dislocations of the elbow and clavicle as well as groin muscle strain, then you really have absolutely no logical basis to suggest that his injury past proves an increased future risk.

Freak injuries are luck and randomness.

Let's look at a quick statistical example of coin flips. If your event was flipping a coin 100 times in a row, and you repeated this event millions of times, you would expect some of them to contain 30+ heads in a row. However, at no point in time of a run of heads can you say that it is more likely to end up with 30+, even when you see 20 in a row. Furthermore, at no point can you say that it is more likely for any future flip to be heads. These are independent events.

Similarly, we expect there to be a small amount of players who end up with a large amount of freak injuries (more than you would expect on average). But it remains impossible to determine which players will have future freak injuries regardless of past accumulation of freak injuries, because freak injuries are independent events.

I'm amazed at how many people take such an overly simplistic view of complicated topics with such an abundance of confidence in their belief.