Reminders about the 2008 cap

[solman]

The Patriot's 2008 cap space situation is fine.

The Patriots have $8M in cap space for this year (not counting the phantom LTBE). All the earned incentives and escalators are not likely to total much more than this.

If we cut Stallworth and Washington we have over $18M in 2008 cap space.

This should be sufficient to sign all of our draft picks, put a first round tender on Wright, sign Moss to a long term deal, retain a couple of our lesser free agents, and maintain an emergency reserve.

If we take easy steps such as restructuring Brady and hard steps such as reducing Faulk, we can even make a small play in free agency.

Of course this means that I'm comfortable with losing Asante, Wilson, Stallworth and Washington. I certainly don't think the team will be better without them, but I do think we'll still be superbowl favorites.

 

[The Predator]

newbie, our "argument" is getting way off-topic in this thread. You are getting all riled up because I put up a possibility that the five players I mention could retire and I was wondering if assuming that could happen, could all of them being gone can free up space or not. Of course, you didn't read that part and stopped after "Junior Seau" in my original post. So who's lame now...

And I'm still waiting if you or anyone else could answer my original question.

Well seeing how I addressed every single person you listed in my first post, you are certainly lame, and of course you didn't read that. I assume because you had a hard time because it wasn't in cartoon form.

To answer your thread question, stop being a lazy bum an go look at the salary amount for next year to figure it out. It isn't that difficult. Here is a hint. Try rotoworld for the info. I know you can do it.

The answer is pretty brainless, so it should be easy for you to answer.

 

[patsfan209]

Well seeing how I addressed every single person you listed in my first post, you are certainly lame, and of course you didn't read that. I assume because you had a hard time because it wasn't in cartoon form.

To answer your thread question, stop being a lazy bum an go look at the salary amount for next year to figure it out. It isn't that difficult. Here is a hint. Try rotoworld for the info. I know you can do it.

The answer is pretty brainless, so it should be easy for you to answer.

Well then we finally agree on one thing here: you think I'm lame, I think you're lame.

 

[mgteich]

The 2008 cap situation is quite manageable.

We could re-sign Moss, Gay, Bruschi, Seau, Wright and the ERFA's and call it a day. Well, we'd also add our draftees and a couple of jags. This would require a few restructurings and extending or revising the contracts of Colvin and/or Stallworth.

DECISIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES
A) There are several salaries that could be converted to signing bonuses, moving money forward.
B) We could extend players (e.g. Colvin or Brady) producing 2008 cap savings.
C) We could not exercise options (Stallworth and Washington). Stallworth has a significant 2008 cap effect. The effect of Washington is long-term.
D) We need to decide how much we are willing to risk a reduction in the passing game. Gaffney could replace Washington at no cost. Moss needs to re-signed.
E) We need to re-sign Gay and replace Samuel with a first day draft choice or two.
F) We need to re-sign or replace Bruschi and Seau.

FREE AGENTS
Moss, Gaffney, Paxton, Bruschi, Seau, Izzo, Samuel, Gay, Scott, Wilson, Mitchell, Paxton

TO BE EVEN WITH THE CAP WITHOUT ANY FREE AGENTS
1) I think the carryforward cap from this year will approximately cover the NLTBE bonuses. We won't ever really know.
2) I would expect to resign the ERFA's and RFA's for about $4M (Eckel, Alexander, Britt, Woods and Wright). I would allocate the remaining $7M to six draftees (or jag replacements), the PS and the injury reserve fund.
3) Colvin's salary is $5.5M, well worth the money.

2008 ROSTER BEFORE DECISION-MAKING

OFFENSE (25)
QB (3) Brady, Gutierrez, Cassell
RB (3) Maroney, Faulk, Morris
FB (2) Evans, Eckel
TE (3) Watson, Brady, Thomas
WR (5) Welker, Jackson, Stallworth, Washington, open
OL (9) Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaycur,
Hochstein, Yates, Britt, O'Callaghan

DEFENSE (25)
DL (7) Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, Smith, Brown
LB (8) Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, open, open, Woods, Lua, Alexander
CB (5) Hobbs, open, open, Jackson, Richardson
S (5) Harrison, Sanders, Meriweather, Andrews, Baker

SPECIALISTS
SPEC (3) Gostkowski, Hansen, open

The Patriot's 2008 cap space situation is fine.

The Patriots have $8M in cap space for this year (not counting the phantom LTBE). All the earned incentives and escalators are not likely to total much more than this.

If we cut Stallworth and Washington we have over $18M in 2008 cap space.

This should be sufficient to sign all of our draft picks, put a first round tender on Wright, sign Moss to a long term deal, retain a couple of our lesser free agents, and maintain an emergency reserve.

If we take easy steps such as restructuring Brady and hard steps such as reducing Faulk, we can even make a small play in free agency.

Of course this means that I'm comfortable with losing Asante, Wilson, Stallworth and Washington. I certainly don't think the team will be better without them, but I do think we'll still be superbowl favorites.

 

[Miguel]

At the same time, how much money will the Patriots roll into next year from this year's cap?

Miguel has the Pats around $6mm+ under the cap. $5mm or so could be pushed into next year, as they did last year (when this year was last year's next year, as Bugs might say).

Is that stuff reported?

If they bump $5mm into next year, that's also a non-trivial impact, and would cover some of those NLTBE increases.

(By the way, isn't it Not Likely To Be Earned, not NTLBE? Or am I mis-acronymizing?)

It is NLTBE. I just mistyped it.

 

[Miguel]

The Patriots have $8M in cap space for this year (not counting the phantom LTBE).

Adamjt13 reported on 9/21 that the Patriots were under the 2007 cap by $5.72 million.
http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92536&page=3

How did they create over 2 million in cap space since then???

All the earned incentives and escalators are not likely to total much more than this.

You know this how???Moss is sure to reach his NLTBE incentives. That is two million.

 

[Miguel]

Let's zoom straight to the conclusion.

I think the biggest question marks as to what the Pats can or can't afford are:

Moss
Samuel
A hypothetical Very High Draft Pick
Stallworth

All other variables seem smaller by comparison.

Assuming that enough is otherwise budgeted for depth and the middle class -- e.g., Gay and Wright stay with non-trivial bumps, but Wilson goes -- and that the Patriots wind up using, say, the #5 overall pick, how much money do you estimate will be left over for Moss, Samuel or a replacement for him, and Stallworth?

Before any cap money is pushed via restructuring to future years, of course ...

There are far too many unknowns to answer your question.

 

[Miguel]

Serious question, Miguel--couldn't the Pats shave about $3M off next year's hit for Stallworth (if they decide to keep him) by converting his roster bonus to a signing bonus?

Yes.
Please note that Stallworth's roster bonus is actually made of two roster bonuses. - a roster bonus of $2 million due on March 1, a second roster bonus of $1.6 million based on playing time. The second roster bonus could be comprised of 16 roster bonuses of $100,000 per game.

 

[godef]

Dang! I thought this was about ordering the Super Bowl locker room hat.:bricks:

 

[solman]

Adamjt13 reported on 9/21 that the Patriots were under the 2007 cap by $5.72 million.
http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92536&page=3

How did they create over 2 million in cap space since then???

I said "not counting the phantom LTBE". There are $2M of cap hits that haven't hit your page and which, in past years, have been LTBE incentives that may or may not be earned.

 

[Miguel]

I said "not counting the phantom LTBE". There are $2M of cap hits that haven't hit your page and which, in past years, have been LTBE incentives that may or may not be earned.

My point is that if they are earned and given the Patriots' success on the field I believe that they would be then the Pats do not have $8 million in cap space this year.

All the earned incentives and escalators are not likely to total much more than this.

I am now confused by what you meant by "this". I took it to mean $8 million.

 

[mcbee]

Thanks for your good work and answering these questions, Miguel.

I will ask a basic question.

If Moss hits his NLTBE payments, are those paid this year and deducted from NEXT YEAR'S CAP? IE if they pay $5M in NLTBE and the cap next year was going to be 110M, is it effectively 105M to account for those NLTBE payments which were actually paid?

I would think the Pats wouldn't have enough cap room THIS year to pay them. Unless they have a huge amount of LTBE expenses in the 2007 salaries which are not actually earned.

4M more for Wilfork next year, wow that's a lot.

 

[solman]

All the earned incentives and escalators are not likely to total much more than this.

I am now confused by what you meant by "this". I took it to mean $8 million.

I was saying that I expect incentive carry over from 2007 to almost cancel out 2008 escalators.

To be more precise:

CE+EN-UL = Not Much (<$3M)

where:

UL = Unearned 2007 LTBEs (including remaining cap space which is pushed forward to 2008 at the last minute)

EN = Earned 2007 NLTBEs (like Moss gets)

CE = 2008 cap space lost to escalators which are not yet factored into the various cap space spreadsheets.


If Wilfork+Warren get an additional $6.4M in 2008, then I am probably wrong.

 

[Fencer]

There are far too many unknowns to answer your question.

Of course.

But your guess is better than mine.

Seriously, what's a reasonable range of numbers to start thinking from?

 

[Fencer]

I can answer one of the cap technicality questions.

Teams are obligated to stay under the cap all season based on the official estimate of their incentives (LTBE included, NLTBE excluded).

At the end of the year, after the actual incentives are calculated, it is determined whether or not they went over the cap. If they did, the penalties begin and end with this: The overage, if any, is deducted from the following season's cap.

Conversely, if they actually were under the cap, and the reason is that the official estimates of their incentives were too high, the amount by which they missed is added to the cap the next season.

That's why they have phony LTBE incentives when they can, to soak up any cap room they don't otherwise need. When the incentives aren't met -- e.g., Brandon Gorin not meeting his incentive of 15 special teams tackles -- the cap space is recaptured for the next season.

 

[Miguel]

Thanks for your good work and answering these questions, Miguel.

I will ask a basic question.

If Moss hits his NLTBE payments, are those paid this year and deducted from NEXT YEAR'S CAP?

What happens at the end of the year is this.

Someone sums up the the total of the NLTBE incentives reached, the total of the LTBE incentives reached, and the total of the LTBE incentives that were counting against the 2007 cap.

NTLBE incentives reached
plus LTBE incentives reached
minus LTBE incentives listed on the 2007 cap
equals a cap debit from the 2008 when the sum of the first two factors is greater than the third - a cap credit when it is less.

Example,
Let's say that the Patriots player have earned $7 million in NLTBE incentives this year
Let's also say that every existing LTBE incentive (about a million) will have been earned.
Let's also say that in December a Patriot player agrees to add a $5 million incentive to his contract that is because it is added in the middle of the season is considered LTBE but in fact it will not be earned (Wright catching 2 TD passes)

The formula will then look like
7 (NLTBE incentives reached)
+1 (LTBE incentives reached)
-6 (LTBE incentives charged against the 2007 cap)
=====
2 million debit

 

[Miguel]

4M more for Wilfork next year, wow that's a lot.

It is a lot and very few posters mentioned it when talking about the 2008 cap.

On 7/20/2004 Reiss reported that Wilfork's "escalators" starts to kick in at 55 percent playing time. Given that Wilfork has only missed 3 regular-season games and the Patriots' success since 2007, it seems likely that he has reached some of his escalators.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I can answer one of the cap technicality questions.

Teams are obligated to stay under the cap all season based on the official estimate of their incentives (LTBE included, NLTBE excluded).

At the end of the year, after the actual incentives are calculated, it is determined whether or not they went over the cap. If they did, the penalties begin and end with this: The overage, if any, is deducted from the following season's cap.

One key point here: that is only true if the overage was "solely" the result of incentives being earned. If a team exceeds the cap through signing contracts, then the commissioner can (and will) void those contracts.