I would think that the odds would go down for beating the same opponent both times in the same year, just from a common sense perspective.
Supafly, just reread your statement and perhaps I initially misinterpreted it.
Are you saying.....
1.) Given a victory in the first match, the victors chances of another victory are decreased in a rematch.
or
2.) The odds of beating a team twice in one season are lower than beating a team once?
I initially interpretted as the first statement, if it is the second one then I completely agree with you.
But if it was the first one, I was just merely suggesting that common sense would actually suggest differently. After all, if 100 different people who knew nothing about football (crazy, I know) had to place a wager on a game, it's a crapshoot what team they would put money on (you'd expect almost a 50/50 split). BUT, if you told these people that these two teams already played each other and TEAM A was victorious, most people using common sense would put their money on Team A.
That's all I'm saying. It's sounded like your argument was that it's tough to beat a team twice in one season, so if Team A won the first game then you would put your money on team B for the rematch. If you continued to make wagers like that you would be broke. My apologies if I have misinterpretted your argument and that is not what you were saying.
Well the numbers certainly suggest otherwise, don't they?
7-6 in rematch games vs 8-0 in non-rematch games?
Not exactly.
If the question is...."In rematches in the NFL playoffs, does the victor of the first match usually win the rematch?"
If that's the question, then you are referring to flawed stats.
Whether the Pats were 8-0 or 0-8 in non-rematch games, this stat has absolutely no relevance to the probability of the Pats winning a rematch game.
By referring to the stat of 7-6 in rematch games, you are not considering whether or not the Patriots won the first matchup. In two cases (Denver 2005, Giants 2011), the Pats lost both the first and rematch games. While these two games count as knocks against hte Pats record in rematch games, they act in favor of the argument that the first game victor wins the rematch.
Even with these two gams though, in looking at only Pats rematches as our sample size since 2001, I have calculated that the winner of the regular season matchup is only 8-6 in the playoff rematch. While that is over 0.500, that's close enough to almost call it even. Therefore, what I have deduced is that in the playoffs, the winner of the regular season matchup provides little to no insight over who will win the playoff rematch. Those are the same odds that would be given to two equally matched teams. That would seem to make sense, too. After all, the entire playoff field should be filled with teams that are relatively close in talent.
So there you have it. Both of our theories are disproved.
It disproves my theory that the first match victor most likely will win the rematch.
and...
It also disproves your theory that the first match loser is likely to win the rematch.
In other words, if you flipped a coin twice the way the first flip lands has zero relevance to the second flip.
No matter how you try and spin it, if 2 teams are decently matched the odds favor a split more likely than not.
.
Probability textbooks say otherwise.
With Teams A and B have equal chances of victory...
In a two game series,
Team A has a 25% chance of sweeping the series
Team B has a 25% chance of sweepng the series
and a 50% chance of splitting the series.
Or when looked at slighlty differently, there is a 50% chance of a sweep and a 50% chance of a split.
*When I used the term 'favored' in my prior post I didn't mean in the Vegas line sense but instead in a probably expectation sense.
I hope I'm making my argument in a logical way. I'm good with numbers but I know sometimes I don't word things so well, and the message is lost. Maybe at the end of the day we are saying the same thing, but in a different way.
Just promise me one thing........
When the Pats have a 8 game win streak against the Jets...heading into the next game don't be THAT guy that predicts the Pats will lose because it's tough to win 9 in a row against a team.
When the Pats win that one, don't head into hte next game saying..the Pats will lose this game because it's tough to beat a team 10 times in a row.
When the Pats win that one, don't head into the next matchup saying...the Pats will lose this game because it's tough to beat a team 11 times in a row. THen if they happen to lose, shout out "SEE I TOLD YOU SO!"
Just don't be that guy.
no worries there.
