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Rematch Games

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsFaninAZ, Jan 8, 2013.

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  1. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

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    So, given that the Patriots road to a championship would include at least 2 rematch games, with a 50/50 chance of a third, I started wondering how the Patriots have done under Belichick/Brady in rematch games in the playoffs.

    The numbers surprised me a bit. Every elimination game -- that is all 6 times the Patriots have been eliminated under Belichick -- was a rematch game. Patriots' overall record in rematch games in the playoffs is 8-6. Five of those wins came in the three Super Bowl championship years, with the most famous of course being the Rams. Since the last Super Bowl win, the Patriots are 3-6 in rematch games in the playoffs. I didn't break it down by whether they won or lost the regular season game.

    I think there's something to the notion that rematch games level the playing field a bit. I think maybe they neutralize one of our advantages, which is coaching. We give the other team film and help them prep.

    In non-rematch playoff games in the Belichick era, the Patriots are 8-0.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2013
  2. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Go Falcons!...but I guess we won't be making it that far to care.
  3. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Oddly enough, in 2010 the Divisional Round included matches in which all four games were EXACT rematch games from the regular season (exact rematch includes same home team).

    In all four games, the winner of the regular season game LOST the exact rematch game in the playoffs.

    Those games included......

    NY Jets over New England (ouch, I know) (at NE)

    Chicago Bears over Seattle Seahawks (at CHI)

    Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons (at ATL)

    Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens (at PIT)
  4. Pewsterbaby

    Pewsterbaby Rookie

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    Great research, both a u guyz. Those are some pretty skewed numbers Texans fans cam take solace in.
    Although, if 99 consecutive coin flips come up heads, the odds on the 100th are still 50/50.
    Pats need to get that post '04 bug-a-boo offa their back with all of those return match-up postseason losses. It's been maddening, year after year. Enough already.
  5. Sfpat

    Sfpat Rookie

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    Except 2010 wasn't an "exact" rematch game, it was a tie-breaker. The Jets won the first time in the Meadowlands, the Pats held serve the 2nd game. Game three came down to the funny bounces of the ball (freak interception, dropped passes in endzone, rare fumble, strange fake fg, few Pats dl available for game). Essentially, everything lined up perfectly for the Jets. The Texans will need the same allignment of the stars to have a chance on Sunday.
  6. BradfordPatsFan

    BradfordPatsFan Rookie

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    I did (from memory FWIW)


    Regular season results of playoff rematches

    2001--Lost to Rams (beat in SB)
    2003-- Beat Colts and Titans (beat both in playoffs)
    2004--Lost to Pittsburgh, beat Colts (beat both in playoffs)
    2005--Lost to Denver (lost in playoffs)
    2006--Lost to Indy (lost in playoffs)
    2007--Beat NYG ((&*(#)*&#^@(#)
    2009--Beat Baltimore (lost in playoffs)
    2010--Split with NYJ (lost in playoffs)
    2011--Lost to NYG, beat Denver (lost to NYG in SB, beat Denver in playoffs)


    By my count that is: 7-6 vs the teams in the regular season who they play in the playoffs...fwiw
  7. MoneyFX

    MoneyFX Rookie

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    That Ravens game, Welker was injured and the team was just bad that year in 2009. In 2010, Rex Ryan made a brilliant gameplan to slow down the efficient passing attack and even got Tom Brady off his rhythm. Giants game in 2007 & 2011 super bowls could have gone either way. But in that 2007 game, the offense went from putting up 38 points to only 17.

    Sometimes, I think it has to do with adjustments. When rematches like these go the other way, it has to do with the team in the postseason playing with a different gameplan than what they had in the regular season. Hopefully Coach Belichick will be aware of that against the Texans and make another gameplan that will put the team in a position to succeed. You can bet that this Texan team will be much different than the one in week 14, but I'm not so sure if Kubiak is as big a gameplan coach as is Rex Ryan.
  8. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

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    Beat the Jets in 06 after splitting with them.
  9. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

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    Yeah, I think it is similar to the fact that division games sometimes seem tough even if there is a big disparity in talent. Bills slowed us way down the second time this year and came a horrible end zone pick from beating us at home.

    Lots of it is happenstance and small sample size. Still the stat that stands way out is 8-0 when it is not a rematch. I think that gives you a good sense of what is going on. On even terms having to break down tape against other teams, Belichick is great. He loses the edge when his opposing coach gets a short cut by having head to head experience. That's my hypothesis anyway.
  10. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Solution .....

    The Pats should have 16 non conference regular season games!,screw the division setup!,we need change! :rocker:
  11. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    so then...we want atlanta or GB in the SB?

    that 8-0 stat is very impressive
  12. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Going by the 'exact' scenario, it was.

    The playoff game was that year was the second time the Jets played the Pats IN NEW ENGLAND.

    We all understand that there is an element of home field advantage. After all, it's what we fight so hard for in the regular season. Generally speaking, most teams end up with as good or better home records than away records. THerefore, I thought it was worth pointing out that these were exact rematches in which the results flipped.
  13. MoneyFX

    MoneyFX Rookie

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    You also forgot that both conference championship games were like that too. :) The Jets beat the Steelers in the regular season 22-17 in Heinz Field but the Steelers won the rematch 24-19 in the AFC title game. The Bears beat the Packers in Soldier field 20-17 in the regular season while the Packers won the NFC title game, 21-14 in their house.
  14. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I would feel just fine with a Seattle rematch too. We scored 23 points in their house in the pouring rain, and left at least 3 more on the board with the 10 sec runoff penalty at the end of the first half.

    I think Belichick would be able to gameplan a nice rematch against them.

    I'd also like to see Atlanta too, so I'll be rooting for the winner of the ATL/SEA game in the NFCCG, should it still matter for us at the time.
  15. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I would think that the odds would go down for beating the same opponent both times in the same year, just from a common sense perspective. We seem to be able to do it with ease many yrs with our divisional opponents, but that competition isn't exactly top notch. Even then sometimes those games can be a lot harder than anyone expected (see MIA game 1, NYJ game 1 and BUF game 2). I somehow feel that the team who is less talented may often gain more of an advantage, but that is unsubstantiated and just speculation on my part.

    We all know that the winner of the NE/PIT matchups ends up losing the rematch in the playoffs every time, however it has been pointed out to me that the NE/IND matchups have been the complete opposite for the most part, so anything's possible.

    I will agree that I don't care for giving the opposition a rematch under any circumstance, especially with the likes of good teams like HOU/DEN, but it is what it is and there isn't anything that can be done about it. I wouldn't mind facing BAL though if that's what it came down to in the AFCCG. I'd actually be pretty confident about winning that rematch--but that kind of goes along with the whole "giving the loser another chance" theory too.
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2013
  16. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Good call. Thanks for the update.
  17. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    I would think that common sense would suggest otherwise.

    After all, if Team A beats Team B in game 1 most often that is because Team A is better than Team B. If Team A is better than Team B, common sense would seem to suggest Team A would be favored to win a rematch.
  18. Sporin

    Sporin Rookie

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    I've been talking about rematch games all week with my friends, I hate them for precisely the reasons you laid out.
  19. oldrover

    oldrover Rookie

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    I wonder why we stopped winning rematch games after 2004. That would be interesting to explore. Can't avoid them for this game, or the next if we make it there, so no point worrying about it... the team just has to play.
  20. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #18 Jersey

    Exact;y. This isn't a 50-50 proposition like flipping a coin.
  21. Welkerstache

    Welkerstache Banned

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    Very interesting. Thank you for the work, sir!
  22. MoneyFX

    MoneyFX Rookie

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    I think the MNF game between the Texans and Patriots was more like the Patriots exposing the Texans weaknesses than just being "the Patriots' night".

    But I have big optimism coming into Sunday's rematch. Gronk is coming back!!!! The run game, play-action, pass blocking and red zone offense will be even better! The Patriots just need to stay focused and execute. Execution is the main thing in Sunday's game.
  23. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Rookie

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    #70 Jersey

    I actually think the exposing started on Thanksgiving Day. When I saw that opening drive by the Lions, I thought they ran a lot of Patriots-type plays that worked. As we all know, Texans were very lucky to win that game.
  24. BradfordPatsFan

    BradfordPatsFan Rookie

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    Whoops, I was at that game, you think I'd remember it.
  25. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Seeing that the Pats hung 42 points on on HOU, I'm not sure how much better they will be offensively but with the addition of Gronk make this a much different game for fatty Phillips to game-plan against.

    I also believe that a healthier Chandler Jones allows the defense to apply more pressure on Schaub w/o blitzing and not losing anything on the run D side by playing Scott or Francis.
  26. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Well the numbers certainly suggest otherwise, don't they?

    7-6 in rematch games vs 8-0 in non-rematch games?

    No matter how you try and spin it, if 2 teams are decently matched the odds favor a split more likely than not.

    The only question is to how much the 2 teams are "evenly" matched, and that's where opinions will differ.

    We saw cases just this year alone where every single divisional team gave us very good games with BUF, the NYJ, and MIA all being very close, despite the huge matchup differential, so even that theory is somewhat flawed too.

    It's also why I wouldn't mind a rematch with Baltimore too (or SEA for that matter).

    EDIT: And FWIW, I'm not talking about "who's favored." That is totally irrelevant in this point.

    This doesn't mean that I am one who is worried about the potential of beating HOU or DEN a second time around, I'm only stating that the numbers obviously point a lot closer to my theory than yours, as playoff matchups tend to be closer in nature...hence the 7-6 rematch record.
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2013
  27. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Supafly, just reread your statement and perhaps I initially misinterpreted it.

    Are you saying.....

    1.) Given a victory in the first match, the victors chances of another victory are decreased in a rematch.

    or

    2.) The odds of beating a team twice in one season are lower than beating a team once?

    I initially interpretted as the first statement, if it is the second one then I completely agree with you.

    But if it was the first one, I was just merely suggesting that common sense would actually suggest differently. After all, if 100 different people who knew nothing about football (crazy, I know) had to place a wager on a game, it's a crapshoot what team they would put money on (you'd expect almost a 50/50 split). BUT, if you told these people that these two teams already played each other and TEAM A was victorious, most people using common sense would put their money on Team A.

    That's all I'm saying. It's sounded like your argument was that it's tough to beat a team twice in one season, so if Team A won the first game then you would put your money on team B for the rematch. If you continued to make wagers like that you would be broke. My apologies if I have misinterpretted your argument and that is not what you were saying.


    Not exactly.

    If the question is...."In rematches in the NFL playoffs, does the victor of the first match usually win the rematch?"

    If that's the question, then you are referring to flawed stats.

    Whether the Pats were 8-0 or 0-8 in non-rematch games, this stat has absolutely no relevance to the probability of the Pats winning a rematch game.

    By referring to the stat of 7-6 in rematch games, you are not considering whether or not the Patriots won the first matchup. In two cases (Denver 2005, Giants 2011), the Pats lost both the first and rematch games. While these two games count as knocks against hte Pats record in rematch games, they act in favor of the argument that the first game victor wins the rematch.

    Even with these two gams though, in looking at only Pats rematches as our sample size since 2001, I have calculated that the winner of the regular season matchup is only 8-6 in the playoff rematch. While that is over 0.500, that's close enough to almost call it even. Therefore, what I have deduced is that in the playoffs, the winner of the regular season matchup provides little to no insight over who will win the playoff rematch. Those are the same odds that would be given to two equally matched teams. That would seem to make sense, too. After all, the entire playoff field should be filled with teams that are relatively close in talent.

    So there you have it. Both of our theories are disproved.

    It disproves my theory that the first match victor most likely will win the rematch.

    and...

    It also disproves your theory that the first match loser is likely to win the rematch.


    In other words, if you flipped a coin twice the way the first flip lands has zero relevance to the second flip.





    Probability textbooks say otherwise.

    With Teams A and B have equal chances of victory...

    In a two game series,

    Team A has a 25% chance of sweeping the series
    Team B has a 25% chance of sweepng the series
    and a 50% chance of splitting the series.

    Or when looked at slighlty differently, there is a 50% chance of a sweep and a 50% chance of a split.

    *When I used the term 'favored' in my prior post I didn't mean in the Vegas line sense but instead in a probably expectation sense.

    I hope I'm making my argument in a logical way. I'm good with numbers but I know sometimes I don't word things so well, and the message is lost. Maybe at the end of the day we are saying the same thing, but in a different way.

    Just promise me one thing........

    When the Pats have a 8 game win streak against the Jets...heading into the next game don't be THAT guy that predicts the Pats will lose because it's tough to win 9 in a row against a team.

    When the Pats win that one, don't head into hte next game saying..the Pats will lose this game because it's tough to beat a team 10 times in a row.

    When the Pats win that one, don't head into the next matchup saying...the Pats will lose this game because it's tough to beat a team 11 times in a row. THen if they happen to lose, shout out "SEE I TOLD YOU SO!"

    Just don't be that guy.
  28. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I think that's exactly what happened, and it hardly matters anyway to be honest. For what it's worth, I was saying that it was my opinion that it's more difficult to beat the same team again both times, as long as the teams are pretty well matched up. (Choice #2, so we actually both agree)

    Obviously we've seen the divisional games where the Pats have won plenty of times in a row (ex.BUF up until last year), and even have the high majority in a win percentage base (ex.NYJ or MIA), but those aren't the kind of examples that I was really referring to, due to the poor matchups to begin with. I was leaning more towards "playoff matchups" which tend to pit opponents of closer talent and skillset.

    There's always a chance that either I worded it poorly, or you may have simply misinterpreted it, but either way...it really doesn't matter too much anyway. It's really just one person's opinion and in many of these debates there isn't necessarily a right and a wrong to me.

    I can certainly promise you that I won't be that guy ;) no worries there.
  29. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So far the losers are 1-0 in their revenge match ups this weekend, with Baltimore pulling the big upset in 2OT in Denver. GB is currently up 14-7 on SF. I'm sure BB will keep that in mind, if any extra reminder is needed about rematches being unpredictable.
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2013
  30. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Looks like 1-1 in rematch games, as SF is annihilating GB in the 4th with less than 4 minutes to go.
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