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Relativity Index for Pats/Ravens. You will be surprised...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Sep 30, 2009.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    There isn't much data, but I like to sort through how team rank on offense and defense compared to other teams that played their opponents. The way to do this is to find out the average that teams are allowing OUTSIDE of when NE/Balt played them, then find how NE/Balt did relative to those stats. This isn't rocket science, but it helps to cut through some perception that offenses/defenses are better or worse than they actually are, based on the weakness or strength of their few opponent this season. Also, I don't separate offensive vs defensive TDs (pick-6s) because every team can argue that their defense "didn't really allow points" based on turnovers and field position.

    Win/Loss

    New England's opponents are 5-1 when playing other teams. They have won by an average score of 22.5 - 16.3 against other teams.

    Baltimore's opponents are 2-4 when playing other teams. They have lost by an average score of 23.5 - 16.2 against other teams.


    When New England has the ball...

    New England Offense

    New England has scored 20 ppg. Their opponents have allowed 16.3 ppg to other teams. New England's offense is +3.7 for ppg.

    New England has averaged 395 ypg. Their opponents have allowed 285 ypg to other teams. New England's offense is +110 for ypg. This huge differential between yards/pts can be attributed to red zone struggles.

    Baltimore Defense

    Baltimore has allowed 17.7 ppg. Their opponents have averaged 16.2 ppg vs. other opponents. Baltimore's defense is -1.5 ppg. Here's a shocker. Early stats suggest the Ravens' defense may not be that good at all. Relative to how many points they should be allowing, they are allowing MORE.

    Baltimore has allowed 282 ypg. Their opponents have averaged 291 ypg vs other teams. Baltimore's defense is +10 ypg. Baltimore's defense has yet to prove it's as good as previous years. They've played against some bad offenses and haven't dominated as much as their perception.

    Conclusion: Based on early stats, the Patriots may just have their breakout offensive game. It's hard to criticize a Ray Lewis defense, but the Ravens may have peaked before the losses of several corners, Bart Scott, Adalius Thomas, and Rex Ryan. If the Patriots can finish off drives, a 30+ point effort would not be shocking at all. The media portrays the Patriots' offense as the team that needs to prove it's elite status, but the reality is the Ravens' defense may be in for a bigger challenge.

    When Baltimore has the ball...

    Ravens Offense

    The Ravens are averaging 34.3 ppg. Their opponents have allowed 23.5 ppg vs. other teams. The Ravens offense is +10.8 ppg. Early indications are that the Ravens have an excellent offense, although their opponents are allowing a TD more than the Patriots' opponents have.

    The Ravens are averaging 430.3 ypg. Their opponents have allowed 333.3 ypg vs. other teams. The Ravens offense is +97 ypg. Again very impressive, but it might surprise many people that the Patriots offense (minus Welker for two games) has been relatively better at moving the ball. Of course, red zone offense is important, and the Ravens' strong running game might make a difference on Sunday.

    New England Defense

    The Patriots are allowing 17 ppg. Their opponents are averaging 22.5 ppg against other teams. The Patriots defense is +5.5 ppg. The Patriots will have a big challenge against the Ravens' offense, but so far their defense has allowed fewer points than the Baltimore D, despite playing against much better offenses (their opponents have averaged almost a touchdown more per game than the Ravens' opponents.)

    The Patriots are allowing 262.3 ypg. Their opponents are averaging 337.3 ypg game against other teams. The Patriots defense is +75 ypg.

    Conclusion

    The Patriots defense has been extremely good this season, much better than the Ravens. Sunday will be a huge test (although last Sunday was also a big test.)

    Overall

    The Patriots relativity index for points is + 9.2 ppg (3.7 + 5.5)
    The Ravens relativity index for points is + 9.3 ppg (10.8 - 1.5)

    The Patriots relativity index for yards is + 185 ypg (110 + 75)
    The Ravens relativity index for yards is + 107 (97 + 10)


    The Ravens have played teams that are averaging a 7 pt loss per game, not including the Ravens. The Patriots have played teams that are averaging a 7 pt win per game, not including the Patriots. Despite what the media says, the Patriots have been equally impressive this year, and the yards/points suggests the Patriots are a red zone makeover from being an easy favorite. They are also playing at home, Welker may be back, and Brady continues to improve every week.
  2. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nice analysis Ice_Ice_Brady.

    I like this stuff. It is hard to gauge teams unless some sort of relative
    analysis, like you did , is used.
    I would like a program that would spit out what you just did for any two given teams.
    it becomes very complicated at the season goes on and more teams are in
    the mix.
    Then throw in injury adjustments etc.
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2009
  3. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    Cold, Hard, Football Facts - Great stuff Ice.

    Any Ravens fans want to shout at those numbers?

    Aside of "any given Sunday" I'd say that's solid evidence that the pats have a decent shot at winning this game.
  4. alvinnf

    alvinnf Rookie

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    Those numbers and 1.50 will get me a cup of coffee.......
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Very nice stuff indeed. Thank you.

    All of it means nothing, of course, when the 2 teams take the field. But 2 things stand out so far this season:

    1. Our offense has been able to move the ball so far this season. With the exception of the 2nd half against the Jets, we have pretty much moved up and down the field with ease. This is not yet reflected in our points. Given the Raven's weak secondary, there is little reason to believe that we will not be able to move the ball again on Sunday.

    2. Our defense has been pretty stingy, and has made other teams work for their yards and their points. Not a lot of pressure or turnovers, but a defense which doesn't concede yards or points easily, and doesn't make many mistakes. I don't see Baltimore moving the ball at will the way they did against their first 3 opponents.

    As I noted in an earlier post, Baltimore's first 3 opponents average 24th out of 32 teams against the run (17th, 26th and 30th), and average 149 YPG rushing. Baltimore has rushed for 156 YPG, so only +7 YPG over the average allowed by their opponents. This suggests that their rushing attack is slightly better than average, but by no means the unstoppable monster that some of their fans posting on this board would suggest.
  6. crypto

    crypto Rookie

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    I usually go out of my way to avoid complex "See, when you account for quantum mechanics we really are better than them!" statistics, but it nice to see some numbers back up my creeping feeling that Baltimore's D really isn't that great anymore. I mean, it's good and it has a lot of playmakers, but come on. They held the awful Browns to 3 points. That's great, but against the Chargers and the Chiefs they average 25 points against. Hell, keep the Browns game in and they still average 18. New England's defense averages 17 points against, it has been much more consistent over all three games, and "experts" are still ****ing all over it. :mad:
  7. makoute

    makoute Rookie

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    Those numbers make the ravens look good, they dominate bad teams on offense, which is what they should do, it's not their fault how the schedule was set up. Sunday will be a true test for them. The Pats have to score TD's this Sunday. Field goals will not do. I ultimately think the Pats will win, but I think the Ravens can win and will give us a game.
  8. crypto

    crypto Rookie

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    I don't know if the Pats offense is a true test at this point. But I would agree that they're better than the other offenses the Ravens have played so far.
  9. H8R

    H8R Rookie

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    Nice research man! Interesting stuff. Let's just see who is better on Sunday. Both teams have a lot to prove and both teams are well coached, for your sake let's hope it does not come down to who is more physical. :singing: :p;)
  10. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    It's just a system of averages that indicate that the Patriots should win the game by virtue of playing a number of opponents prior to their game that is the same as the Ravens. It would make far more sense if the opponents they played were the same opponents that the Ravens played.

    However, the opponents each team has played is arbitrary, and so if you swap the opponents for the Ravens with the ones for the Patriots, you would get a different set of numbers, as you will also if you swap out the opponents that the opponents have played (especially if the opponents of those opponents played so poorly as to skew the overall averages) so in that regard the statement of logic above is correct- the coffee is the only thing you'll end up with if you have those numbers and $1.50.
  11. Satchboogie3

    Satchboogie3 Rookie

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    It's something to look at, but like anything, should be taken with a big grain of salt.

    ----

    crypto, is your Avatar G-Man from Half-Life (the game)?
  12. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Pats should win the game if they score more points than they allow. That's about the only useful stat.

    For some stats that favor the Ravens, see:

    Kerry Byrne | Time To Temper Expectations, Pats Fans
  13. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan On the Roster

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    Very interesting study. It seesm similar in concept to what Sagarin does. Obviously it gets more accurate as the body of statistics gets larger...
  14. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    What these stats do show is the obvious bias that accompanies the media pundits when they provide "analysis".

    Notice the disparity in coverage with Baltimore and Denver.
  15. borg

    borg Rookie

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    Since you mentioned Sagarin:

    USATODAY.com
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Broncos #1. So much for computer rankings.
  17. borg

    borg Rookie

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  18. borg

    borg Rookie

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    So now we know, the Pats will win by 0.81 points.

    Vegas lines have Pats favored by between 1.5 and 2.5 points, trending down from opening line of -3
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