Reiss: Brady much less effective against blitz vs. standard pass rush

[2000army]

All this means is we need Wes Welker back

 

[Gumby]

SO as long as brady's Comp % is lower when blitzing AND the NET gain is lower opposing defenses have no excuse not to be pinning back their ears

Kontradiction: No. Brady frequently torched the blitz prior to his injury.

I think we are saying the same thing. I meant - the lesson other teams take from these stats is that Brady is not normal right now and is vulnerable to blitz. So until he fixes that and starts making them pay in either COMP% or NET gain they have no reason not to blitz evey chance they have.

....and that doesnt bode well for Brady's health long term.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Dude what's your deal?! Did you watch the game or are you that much of a homer that your blind to the fact that Brady didn't play well and overthrew plenty of receivers and clearly didn't look comfortable when he had time or when the heat was on which wasn't much imoh. Thankfully the D really exercised their will in this game and bill totally took away ATL's strengths in this one.

Nothing homer in that point:

Again, a few weeks back, TB's high scholl guru wrote a piece and stated that TB needs the 6-8 game time period to return to form. You make the mistake of comparing vintage TB to where any QB should be after not playing 80 weeks and major knee surgery.

Stop listening to the clowns known as "pundits" so either say he's done or will be back to vintage TB.

Blitz and no Welker? Huh? Makes zero sense to even compare.

I also don't get this running out of shotgun. I believe the Pats invented the Faulk on the side/hand off/ likda looks like a draw play run.

Until this board understands that returning from knee surgery is a process; you will torture yourself with needless and irrelavent analysis.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Mike Reiss' blog - Brady by the numbers - ESPN Boston


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Now, if we can accept that for this season, due to multiple reasons, that Brady this year won't be as effective against the blitz compared to a standard rush, what does this mean?

It means that we need to use LESS shot gun. Shot gun openly eliminates any chance of run (because teams know we pass 85% of the time we are in shot gun), so teams are pass rushing and often blitzing against us in this formation.

Our team has a dominant, physical rushing attack. Our O-line is good at it, we have a stable of 4 great running backs who can take turns pounding the ball all day. This also opens up play action. We can also use more screens and traps with Brady under center.

All respect to the best NFL writer in New England, but I don't think two games provide enough data to draw conclusions. I think an interesting comparison would be between those two games and TB's performance in 2007, if the Globe has the data. If his performance against the blitz is different this year, then that would be interesting information.

 

[xmarkd400x]

I think that these stats are important for the short term. Teams will continue to blitz Brady until he improves against the blitz.

Will he eventually be making teams pay? I'd say yes. Will the blitz be effective against TFB next week? I'd say yes.

 

[BelichickFan]

All respect to the best NFL writer in New England

I wouldn't give him any respect on this one. To attempt to draw a conclusion based on two games was lazy and useless - and that's being generous.

 

[upstater1]

All respect to the best NFL writer in New England, but I don't think two games provide enough data to draw conclusions. I think an interesting comparison would be between those two games and TB's performance in 2007, if the Globe has the data. If his performance against the blitz is different this year, then that would be interesting information.

Maybe even compare this year to his performance against the blitz starting with the Eagles game in 2007. That will take us through the Ravens, Giants, Chargers, Giants.

I've often said about 2007 that Brady was hurt in the playoffs. Against the Giants during the regular season, he looked good. But then in the playoffs, something was very very off. I saw those games live and got to see the WRs routes develop, and I can say that Brady was not himself. Against the Chargers, he had Dave Thomas breaking free on a long developing play, and Brady sailed it toward the sidelines when Thomas was breaking free over the middle. It wasn't a case of miscommunication, he just didn't have his feet under him.

 

[maverick4]

I share the belief that Brady will eventually become as good as he used to be, an assassin even against the blitz.

Not this year though. It takes time to get fully back from injury, both physically and mentally, and also get fundamental technique back to form.

Does anyone still want to use mostly shot gun for our passing plays? How about putting Brady under center more, like we did against Atlanta?

 

[maverick4]

Remember our first two games where we used the 3-WR shot gun set almost exclusively?

Here are snaps by players in the Falcons game:

WR Randy Moss -- 76 of 83
TE Chris Baker -- 65 of 83
TE Benjamin Watson -- 63 of 83
WR Julian Edelman -- 36 of 83
RB Fred Taylor -- 35 of 83
WR Sam Aiken -- 34 of 83
RB Kevin Faulk -- 32 of 83
WR Joey Galloway -- 32 of 83
RB/FB Sammy Morris -- 17 of 83
TE Michael Matthews -- 13 of 83
RB Laurence Maroney -- 11 of 83

Mike Reiss' blog - Snaps played by offensive skill-position players - ESPN Boston

 

[p8ryts]

Mike Reiss' blog - Brady by the numbers - ESPN Boston


------------

Now, if we can accept that for this season, due to multiple reasons, that Brady this year won't be as effective against the blitz compared to a standard rush, what does this mean?

It means that we need to use LESS shot gun. Shot gun openly eliminates any chance of run (because teams know we pass 85% of the time we are in shot gun), so teams are pass rushing and often blitzing against us in this formation.

Our team has a dominant, physical rushing attack. Our O-line is good at it, we have a stable of 4 great running backs who can take turns pounding the ball all day. This also opens up play action. We can also use more screens and traps with Brady under center.

Masters of the obvious, always has been always will be for all QBs.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I wouldn't give him any respect on this one. To attempt to draw a conclusion based on two games was lazy and useless - and that's being generous.

i'll give him a pass based on his past record, but I agree that this is pretty sloppy for him.

 

[Kontradiction]

I share the belief that Brady will eventually become as good as he used to be, an assassin even against the blitz.

Not this year though. It takes time to get fully back from injury, both physically and mentally, and also get fundamental technique back to form.

Does anyone still want to use mostly shot gun for our passing plays? How about putting Brady under center more, like we did against Atlanta?

Nah. He'll be back this year. He's definitely not going to put up the record setting numbers of two years ago, but he'll be back to his old form by November. His mechanics visibly improved yesterday and there's no reason to believe that he won't progress even more as the weeks go by.

 

[maverick4]

Nah. He'll be back this year. He's definitely not going to put up the record setting numbers of two years ago, but he'll be back to his old form by November. His mechanics visibly improved yesterday and there's no reason to believe that he won't progress even more as the weeks go by.

So come November, are you in support of the Patriots using the old shot gun happy pass offense people have come to love from 2006-2008?

 

[maverick4]

In particular, several Atlanta players said New England’s reliance on a play-action passing attack surprised them. Because the Falcons had to respect the Patriots’ running game, they couldn’t rush Brady as aggressively as they’d like.

“They kind of did a little mind games on us. That’s all it was,” defensive end John Abraham said. “They did a good job. I’ve got to credit them with how they played. We watched a lot of tape, and they didn’t do as much play action before.”

Patriots’ approach surprised Falcons’ defense | ajc.com

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

In particular, several Atlanta players said New England’s reliance on a play-action passing attack surprised them. Because the Falcons had to respect the Patriots’ running game, they couldn’t rush Brady as aggressively as they’d like.

“They kind of did a little mind games on us. That’s all it was,” defensive end John Abraham said. “They did a good job. I’ve got to credit them with how they played. We watched a lot of tape, and they didn’t do as much play action before.”

:nodding:

Atlanta was outcoached on both sides of the ball. Glad to see BB abandon the base shotgun offense and keep the opposing D on its toes as to what was coming. I hope to see a lot more of that going forward.

Regards,
Chris

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Actually, we saw a stat that showed that Brady in past years was 77.5% completion rate against the blitz.

Reiss's stats show that Brady is so far this season less successful against the blitz than he has been in the past.

That leaves me optimistic.

The blitz that "Brady" struggles against is one that incorporates consistent pressure up the middle. It collapses his pocket so there is nowhere to go to buy time but backwards. That's the blueprint and that's an OL issue. Rodney spoke to that last night in analyzing where Atlanta's game plan went wrong. But in order to bring that kind of pressure though you have to have a pretty stout front and Atlanta doesn't let alone absent their first rounder. All that leaves them is Abraham off the edge and we have always had success (eventually) adjusting to account for edge rushers. We won the battle in the trenches yesterday. We have yet to show we can handle pressure up the middle and win the battle against a team constructed and determined to bring it.

Same deal with run blocking. Bill said yesterday the OL did a much better job coming off the ball and the receivers did a better job of blocking giving backs more toom to run the ball. Which leads me to think he saw their performances as a probelm in weeks one and two. They were also facing a lot more 3 and 4 man fronts as I think some of the OL acknowledged in their comments. I don't think we saw a tipped ball at the line this week, which cost us a score against the JETS, so technique was improved as well. It's hard to run play action when teams are stuffing the run and getting pressure up the middle unless your intent is to just get the QB killed. Against that pressure the shotgun is used to buy time, even an extra second, for the QB and OL to decipher the coverage and get a play off against it. And while some of our running plays seem to be slow to develop as a result, the trade off is sometimes a matter of necessity. Bill says we can and do run all of our plays out of shotgun.

Some QB's are actually more accurate and comfortable outside the pocket. Brady isn't one of them. So the alternative of rolling him out isn't really a viable strategy. Charlie did it early on with some success, but it's not playing to Brady's strong suit and that is why we don't do that much if at all anymore. That being the case is why some of us continue to add upgrading the OL to our annual wish list.

And any QB will also struggle against the blitz when his receivers aren't executing with precision consistently. Especially one who is coached to be turnover adverse. Right now Brady has limited options because of Welker's injury and Galloway's struggles. He's also breaking in a new TE to go along with one who has historically struggled with either post snap adjustments or his hands. Issues of trust obviously exist between Brady and his receivers, but those are something the receivers have to work on because it's on them to earn his trust and not visa versa.

There is just no margin for error execution wise when we face teams who are committed to the so called blueprint, consistent pressure up the middle coupled with tight coverage on Moss. Baltimore should be a better matchup test of how we are coming along than Atlanta was for that reason. I hope Welker is 100%, but it will take more that that anyway. I think Galloway was getting there but now he's pressing and that could derail any progress those two were making. That's what held Watson back for years, the struggle to grasp the adjustments to the extent they are second nature vs. the fear of making mistakes leads to seemingly stone hands drops. Until the receiver trusts his own instincts to be on the same plane as Brady's it's a crapshoot.

 

[maverick4]

11 games now into the season, I think this trend is still in effect.

At one point against the Saints, they showed a graphic on Brady and he was 12 for 35 passing (ouch).

When we run in shotgun, the opposing team is basically blitzing, not protecting any running gaps at all.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

11 games now into the season, I think this trend is still in effect.

At one point against the Saints, they showed a graphic on Brady and he was 12 for 35 passing (ouch).

When we run in shotgun, the opposing team is basically blitzing, not protecting any running gaps at all.

Only NO didn't blitz much since they were getting excellent pressure sending 3 and 4.

Brady has historically feasted on the blitz, until a copycat league came to the realization this OL couldn't scheme around persistent pressure up the middle and Brady couldn't slide around enough to account for that within an overall collapsing pocket because as close to perfect as he may be his strong suit has never been rolling out and throwing on the fly because his accuracy is born of meticulous mechanics. Can't really run well against it either. Truth be told there is not a hell of a lot any team can do against consistently successful pressure from just 3 and 4 man fronts. That is why they say games are generally won and lost in the trenches.

 

[maverick4]

Only NO didn't blitz much since they were getting excellent pressure sending 3 and 4.

When the defense knows you are passing, as is the case pretty much every time we are in shot gun, which we are in for 75% of all pass attempts this year, the D-line is essentially blitzing.

 

[emoney_33]

When the defense knows you are passing, as is the case pretty much every time we are in shot gun, which we are in for 75% of all pass attempts this year, the D-line is essentially blitzing.