Reiss:Angelo's view on misguided Pats plan

[ivanvamp]

You mean we should look at players like Denver does? That would be a pleasant switch.

Maybe after the Glass IR-Dowling fiasco--guy hadn't made it through a full season since sophomore of high school for Crissy Evert sakes--we can start drafting with durability in mind, also?

In 2011 we could have easily drafted Torrey Smith instead of Glass IR. Maybe we could have traded down, since we had the first pick in the second that year, and reportedly several teams were in earnest to trade with us, and had still gotten him later that second round. (With Smith we win that second SB against the Giants, IMHO.)

Belichick needs more criticism over that "gutsy" pick. Mel Kiper was right on that one--along with a majority of NFL GMs who, while acknowledging Dowling's physical skills and passion for the game, justifiably questioned his ability to make it through a season. Past is prologue as they say.

I trusted Bill at the time. No more. He's soured me with that pick and threw me under the buss with the head scratcher of Tavon Wilson. Funny guy Bill thought it was hilarious to draft a guy that early in the draft who hadn't even been invited with the other 300 compadres to the Combine. Ha ha. He's a decent STer, though.

Bill Belichick has been the very best drafter in the NFL since 2000. Nobody gets everything right. Nobody. Belichick does it better than anybody over the long haul. Which is why the Pats are one of the very best teams in the NFL every single year.

 

[BrickPat]

Bill Belichick has been the very best drafter in the NFL since 2000. Nobody gets everything right. Nobody. Belichick does it better than anybody over the long haul. Which is why the Pats are one of the very best teams in the NFL every single year.

BB is the best coach in the game and coaches the best QB- those facts are the main reason for their success. However BB is not better than anybody in the NFL when it comes to the draft, sorry. He has traded out of the upper rounds too often for non impact "value" players or chosen players he vastly overrated (re: Tayvon Wilson with a 2nd round pick).

 

[State]

Nobody gets everything right. Nobody. Belichick does it better than anybody over the long haul.

The first point goes without saying. The second is wearing thin, as it's been nearly a decade since we've won it all--with perhaps the best QB of all time, and the second best X's and O's coach on the planet. (Saban teaches Belichick more than vice versa, according to Bill.)

So, I can't agree with the second part. I think Ted Thompson, the Packers' GM, has done a better job in the mid rounds in recent years, for example. He did have a bad year in 2007.

The point is when it is obvious that the question marks are valid--Glass not making it through a full season since high school or Tavon Wilson grabbing only one or two INTs after being a three-year starter at Illinois--so uneventful, really, that he was justifiably not invited to the Combine and considered by professional observers of the Big Ten to be a late round draft pick or free agent--those are the picks that one can--and should--question.

I never doubted Bill, for example, on the Fresno State pick of Logan Mankins, who played at the time for Pat Hill who, unlike the liar Urban Meyer, is a more credible guy.

And I think it's not very debatable that Bill has a lousy track record with DBs, which is odd. Don't forget that those early SB teams were more a product of Bill Parcells, including the urging of the late **** Rehbein to draft the skinny kid out of Ann Arbor.

 

[ivanvamp]

BB is the best coach in the game and coaches the best QB- those facts are the main reason for their success. However BB is not better than anybody in the NFL when it comes to the draft, sorry. He has traded out of the upper rounds too often for non impact "value" players or chosen players he vastly overrated (re: Tayvon Wilson with a 2nd round pick).

The first point goes without saying. The second is wearing thin, as it's been nearly a decade since we've won it all--with perhaps the best QB of all time, and the second best X's and O's coach on the planet. (Saban teaches Belichick more than vice versa, according to Bill.)

So, I can't agree with the second part. I think Ted Thompson, the Packers' GM, has done a better job in the mid rounds in recent years, for example. He did have a bad year in 2007.

Again, I refer you to this article: (2000-2012 Patriots Draft Analysis atriots Coverage With John Vampatella). It is demonstrably true that BB has done a better job drafting than anyone else since 2000. San Francisco is close, but NE has been the best. Especially considering where they've had to start from every year.

That research gives you an actual baseline from which to work, actual objective measurements, not simply pointing out individual swings and misses, which everyone has.

 

[Joker]

Again, I refer you to this article: (2000-2012 Patriots Draft Analysis atriots Coverage With John Vampatella). It is demonstrably true that BB has done a better job drafting than anyone else since 2000. San Francisco is close, but NE has been the best. Especially considering where they've had to start from every year.

That research gives you an actual baseline from which to work, actual objective measurements, not simply pointing out individual swings and misses, which everyone has.

when has FACT ever mattered here?

look..you take a Wheatley, throw in a slightly used Chad Jackson, add a little Tavon Wilson(the salt and pepper of the concoction) and what you get is "Pats Suck At Drafting And Are Bad...Everything therefore Is Bad"... why argue with culinary excellence?

 

[Rob0729]

You mean we should look at players like Denver does? That would be a pleasant switch.

Maybe after the Glass IR-Dowling fiasco--guy hadn't made it through a full season since sophomore of high school for Crissy Evert sakes--we can start drafting with durability in mind, also?

In 2011 we could have easily drafted Torrey Smith instead of Glass IR. Maybe we could have traded down, since we had the first pick in the second that year, and reportedly several teams were in earnest to trade with us, and had still gotten him later that second round. (With Smith we win that second SB against the Giants, IMHO.)

Belichick needs more criticism over that "gutsy" pick. Mel Kiper was right on that one--along with a majority of NFL GMs who, while acknowledging Dowling's physical skills and passion for the game, justifiably questioned his ability to make it through a season. Past is prologue as they say.

I trusted Bill at the time. No more. He's soured me with that pick and threw me under the buss with the head scratcher of Tavon Wilson. Funny guy Bill thought it was hilarious to draft a guy that early in the draft who hadn't even been invited with the other 300 compadres to the Combine. Ha ha. He's a decent STer, though.

Obviously, Ras-I Dowling was a bad pick, but I still don't get the love for Torrey Smith.

Statistically, he had a good season last year, but the guy is wildly inconsistent. A perfect example of this is after a great first five games, he was on track for an 1,800 season after amassing 556 yards in those 5 games or a 111.2 YPG average. But he stumbled most of the rest of the way and ended up with 1128 yard season. So in his last 11 games he got 572 yards or 16 more yards than he got in his first 5 games and a 52 YPG average. Most importantly is that he was virtually non-existent down the stretch when the Ravens were fighting for their playoff lives. Against the Pats, he had one big play and apparently took the rest of the game off. And I still maintain the guy wouldn't have fit in the Pats' system to begin with.

I still maintain Smith is more of a #2 WR posing as a #1 WR.

 

[Ivan]

The revisionist history in these forums is nothing short of astonishing. First we have Brady6 ripping Amendola all season when he is hurt and conveniently leaving out the fact that he opposed re-signing Welker but now criticizes the Patriots for replacing him with a player most felt was the best option to do so. Then we have posters like Captain Stone repeatedly ripping on the Patriots drafts while never linking to the choices he made at the time, and now we have State back in here ripping on the Tavon Wilson pick while omitting the fact that the player he screamed for at that pick was Jerel Worthy, who had 1, count em, 1 tackle this season and has been as big a bust as anyone coming out the past few years, including Ras I Dowling. These guys are the masters of monday morning quarterbacking and telling us all what they should have done however when you go back and look at what they were saying at the time it is clear that the decisions they actually would have made suck, whereas the ones the patriots actually made, in sum, have led them to championship game after championship game and the most successful run any team has had in this era.

 

[Jack Handy]

My problem with his analysis is that he is comparing players drafted by Denver who are not rookies. Decker (year 4), D Thomas (year 4), J Thomas (year 3).

What did they do besides welker that can be considered a solid plan?
Should the Pats have kept welker, gotten a top tier 3 yr TE and 4 yr WR.

 

[Joker]

No no no no no!! you guys just don't get it. WE SUCK....admit it and everything gets easier to deal with. BB sucks.Brady sucks. the coaches all suck.Let's face it..it's all bad...real real bad...all the time. Once you get past THAT, it's all daffodils and rabbits in the spring around here.

 

[State]

The research by John Vampatella (any relation, Ivan?) is valuable and good, as far as it goes. It looks at only four or five variables, though, such as starting draft positions, if the draftee makes and plays with the team, total years played, and two honors: All-Pro or Pro Bowl.

But what about qualitative distinctions that have nothing to do with such big prizes?

For example, by this measurement Green Bay's starting CB Casey Hayward, drafted 62nd in 2012, and a starter with the lowest passer rating of any CB in the NFL, is equal to the player we took 48th that same year, STer Tavon Wilson. Both are still on the team and playing. And Hayward hasn't been given All-Pro or Pro Bowl status as far as I can tell.

What I think he conclusively demonstrates is not whether or not Bill is the best drafter; rather, that trading down and going for more picks is the way to go. Teams are built via the draft. And the more darts one has the better the chance to hit the target. And New England spends more than other teams on researching players for the draft.

 

[Ivan]

So the secret to Denver's recent success has been their drafting?

LMFAO

If Peyton manning doesn't decide to go there they would either have Tim Tebow or Brock Osweiler as their QB and would have been pulling up hind tit in the AFCW this season.



And the study Ivanvamp linked to is now the second long term study of draft success for the entire league over a 10 year span that concluded that the Patriots were the top drafting team in the league. Not that it will change the fact that certain posters here will still pine for Jerel Worthy or Early Doucet but it is still a fact that the two comprehensive long term studies of the entire league came to the exact same conclusion, and it actually makes sense, because the truth of the matter is that a team cannot suck at drafting players and stay at the top of the NFL for over a decade, regardles of what they want to try and claim.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Yes I too am frustrated watching elite teams stop the regular season Pats offense year after year in the playoffs. But stretching the field starts up front. Pats need a greatly improved center and some improvement at guard to handle the interior pressure well enough to have the time to throw the deep ball. OK, I'm writing off Solder's lapses as an aberration…we'll see. No point in having a burner when you can't wait for the play to develop and no point in it when w/o pressure the QB misses a wide open WR deep downfield. So deep threat upgrade starts with the OL.

As to the D, we need to add talent at corner. Hopefully that "addition" is Talib. We're still weak at SS and interior DL is a big question mark given the ages of the 2 big vet DTs.

Thanks to a contingency deficient contract given to The Prisoner, we're hamstrung on the cap before restructuring. So the quest to upgrade from Very Good to Elite will be difficult.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yes I too am frustrated watching elite teams stop the regular season Pats offense year after year in the playoffs. But stretching the field starts up front. Pats need a greatly improved center and some improvement at guard to handle the interior pressure well enough to have the time to throw the deep ball. OK, I'm writing off Solder's lapses as an aberration…we'll see. No point in having a burner when you can't wait for the play to develop and no point in it when w/o pressure the QB misses a wide open WR deep downfield. So deep threat upgrade starts with the OL.

As to the D, we need to add talent at corner. Hopefully that "addition" is Talib. We're still weak at SS and interior DL is a big question mark given the ages of the 2 big vet DTs.

Thanks to a contingency deficient contract given to The Prisoner, we're hamstrung on the cap before restructuring. So the quest to upgrade from Very Good to Elite will be difficult.

IIRC, though, in order to use those contingencies, the Patriots would have had to keep the Prisoner as an employee (on a Reserve/Suspended list or something similar). In other words, instead of "former Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez," it would be "Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez."

 

[Ivan]

The research by John Vampatella (any relation, Ivan?) is valuable and good, as far as it goes. It looks at only four or five variables, though, such as starting draft positions, if the draftee makes and plays with the team, total years played, and two honors: All-Pro or Pro Bowl.

But what about qualitative distinctions that have nothing to do with such big prizes?

For example, by this measurement Green Bay's starting CB Casey Hayward, drafted 62nd in 2012, and a starter with the lowest passer rating of any CB in the NFL, is equal to the player we took 48th that same year, STer Tavon Wilson. Both are still on the team and playing. And Hayward hasn't been given All-Pro or Pro Bowl status as far as I can tell.

What I think he conclusively demonstrates is not whether or not Bill is the best drafter; rather, that trading down and going for more picks is the way to go. Teams are built via the draft. And the more darts one has the better the chance to hit the target. And New England spends more than other teams on researching players for the draft.

That's the second ten year study of this era to reach the conclusion that the Patriots draft better than the rest of the league, the other came to the conclusion that it was baltimore and New England, and that study omitted draft position in its analysis. And what both omit is the fact that when teams are studying prospects for the draft they go way beyond those drafted to almost all of those available, and those who are not drafted make up the undrafted free agent market, and no team in football has made more of the undrafted free agent market than the Patriots have, and that is simply an extension of the draft, if the draft still had 15 rounds many of those players would have made up their late round picks.



The truth of the matter is that the Patriots are always at a disadvantage in every draft and yet they still not only put the talent together to be a final four team almost every season but also have managed to find ways to rebuild their team several times without ever dropping out of contention. For people to sit back and monday morning cherrypick and critique their drafts as though they could do better goes beyond hubris to the absurd. Despite the criticism from the peanut galley the Patriots somehow managed to get to the AFCCG after losing half their starting line-up, all veterans, and get the second youngest team in football to perform at a level that put them at the top of the league. It is nothing short of amazing, as is the arrogance of those who think they could actually do a better job.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yet you fail to mention that the Denver front office based their entire season on a QB who is one hit away from being retired. Yes ... that applies to every NFL player but a normal hit to most players is one that could knock Manning out if it affects his neck. Just pointing out that every team in the NFL gambles with their roster ... Patriots and Belichick made it further than most and unfortunately they were on the wrong side of their gambles.

The point of the article was the players around the quarterbacks, not the quarterbacks. I didn't fail to mention anything. You chose to toss a red herring onto the table.


Big difference

 

[Deus Irae]

Again, I refer you to this article: (2000-2012 Patriots Draft Analysis atriots Coverage With John Vampatella). It is demonstrably true that BB has done a better job drafting than anyone else since 2000. San Francisco is close, but NE has been the best. Especially considering where they've had to start from every year.

That research gives you an actual baseline from which to work, actual objective measurements, not simply pointing out individual swings and misses, which everyone has.

That "research" is useless. It's some of the worst writing we'll ever see, anywhere, because it leaves out almost everything that matters. That pro bowls/all pro area is a perfect example. It's bragging about the Patriots having 56 seasons worth. Well, Brady/Seymour alone account for 19 of those. Wilfork's good for another 6. Just 3 players account for roughly half the numerated seasons. One of those players is acknowledged as being probably the greatest draft steal of all time, but another was a top 6 pick, so the trade down approach doesn't even apply.

 

[Sicilian]

Yes I too am frustrated watching elite teams stop the regular season Pats offense year after year in the playoffs. But stretching the field starts up front. Pats need a greatly improved center and some improvement at guard to handle the interior pressure well enough to have the time to throw the deep ball. OK, I'm writing off Solder's lapses as an aberration…we'll see. No point in having a burner when you can't wait for the play to develop and no point in it when w/o pressure the QB misses a wide open WR deep downfield. So deep threat upgrade starts with the OL.

This is precisely why losing Jake Long and adding Mike Wallace didn't make any different to Miami's passing offense: 22nd in YPA in 2012 (6.8) and 22nd in YPA in 2013 (6.7).

Start up front. I overuse this cliche and I apologize, but don't bother roofing a house that doesn't have a foundation.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I think this was a if all else fail type of plan, not a misguided plan. The bottom line the pats are not very scary without the TEs, they're no longer an explosive offense. The only way this passing game will thrive again is when Rob returned and Hernandez replaced.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is precisely why losing Jake Long and adding Mike Wallace didn't make any different to Miami's passing offense: 22nd in YPA in 2012 (6.8) and 22nd in YPA in 2013 (6.7).

Start up front. I overuse this cliche and I apologize, but don't bother roofing a house that doesn't have a foundation.

Not that I disagree with your take here, but to also point out another big part of the Miami problem, because it could be of importance for the Patriots going forward. A fair part of the reason Wallace wasn't getting those catches was because of two other things:

The play calling minimized Wallace's impact.
The QB didn't ever really figure out how to get on the same page with Wallace.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Demaryius Thomas, was on the Broncos 2 years before peyton showed up and had a total of 800 yards and 6 TD's Julius Thomas, was there a full season before Peyton and had 1 rec before this season, Eric Decker was there best WR before Manning was on the team and he had a total of 50 rec 700 yards and 9 TD's in two full seasons, Wes Welker was the only new guy they give peyton and he went right back to the player he was with the fish a 70 rec slot WR/PR,

as much as we hate to admit Peyton Manning made that team and its receivers what they are, as for the writer saying BB pretty much treated Brady like a game manager not giving him weapons come on they signed Danny and Edelman Drafted two WR's with vereen and the best TE in the NFL. the pats averaged 33 points a game with Gronk in the game,


Denver had over 500 yards 27 first downs and was on the field for over 35 min your not going to win in the playoffs like that, the pats have been in the top 3 in scoring offense the last 4 years Brady does not need more Weapons the defense just has to find a was to get off the field and give Brady more shots at scoring