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Reiss: Analyzing Burgess' final four games

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Patspsycho, May 28, 2010.

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  1. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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  2. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    Ah! An exceptionally intriguing article. Thanks for rolling this one over here.

    ***

    I am firmly convinced that 99% of the impetus behind Burgess's Late Season Revival came from him reaching that Critical Mass of Repetition where a System finally CLICKS for a player, and have always said so.

    That's why it was such an ATROCITY to surrender a 3rd and a 5th for him: It was pretty much a given that he'd need most of the year to start being Productive.

    Of course, it helped that Belichick finally concluded that switching Burgess to OLB wasn't working, and redeployed Burgess towards a position of much greater relative comfort.

    ***

    And I really like Reiss's conclusion: Burgess's greatest contribution to the OLB Crew ~ and to the Pass Rush ~ would be to NOT play OLB, but to build on his stellar work, down the stretch, last year, and line up on the Front Line.
  3. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    I give Reiss credit for doing some additional digging and changing his initial assessment.

    The question is, whats the tipping point in production vs cost for the trade? There are two schools of thought. No question his 2009 production was not equal to the cost. However, if he has a 10 sack season (with numerous hurries and game-altering plays mixed in), is it fair to say that the trade will then be "worth it"?
  4. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    Very good question.

    The answer is: No chance in HELL.

    We just picked up Burgess for NOTHING. Any one of 32 teams could've signed him.

    I'll stipulate that it can at least be argued that it was worth SOMETHING to give him that critical year in learning the system. The potential difference in his impact on our 2010 team IS huge.
  5. Bostonian1962

    Bostonian1962 Rookie

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  6. 363839

    363839 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes but we were and are still desperate for a pass rusher.
    Highly unlikely we were going to get that from a 3rd or 5th round rookie anyways. BB's got tons of picks, I mean there wasn't a lot out there.
    If DB keeps his game at the level of the last 4 games of 09, I think it will be well worth those picks. Especially considering our strong position for next years draft.
  7. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Mood
    Concur. I suspect that Burgess will pick up where he left off and I am looking for very good production from him.
  8. eom

    eom Rookie

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    I love reiss, but he could've saved himself a few hours and checked that stuff out in 2 minutes at profootballfocus --- no, I don't work there.
  9. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Those 3rd and 5th round rookies would now have a season under their belts, and Burgess would have been available as a pass rushing DE specialist free agent this offseason, if the Raiders didn't cut him last season.

    He'll never have been worth those picks.
  10. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

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    In 2008 we spent a 3rd and 5th on Crable and Slater respectively, can't say they've really panned out yet either.(still crossing my fingers) For 2010, I'm optimistic for the Pats defense this year, lots of speed/ youth + some veteran leadership including Burgess with a year under his belt in a BB defense. Maybe he'll contribute and maybe not. It's all relative.
  11. efin98

    efin98 Rookie

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    How would they now have a season under their belts when they would have just been selected in this past draft?!?!
    Last edited: May 29, 2010
  12. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What the Pats paid for him is pertinent to nothing anymore.
  13. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Pardon me, I meant that they'd have an offseason under their belts and Burgess would be available.
  14. Nathan

    Nathan Rookie

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    A 3rd and a 5th aren't that bad. Yeah, we got Moss for a 4th (fleecing) and Welker for a 2 and 3 or something but those deals don't happen every year. If you look at the compensation being paid out for aging semi-elite players (Donovan McNabb for a 2) it makes more sense. A 3 and 5 are worth less than a 2, unless you jackpot those picks. I'd rather use a 3rd and a 5th on a guy that can contribute as a situational pass rusher than burn the 3 on a LB that never pans and the 5th on a jack of all trades guy, master of none.

    If you're a Super Bowl contender with a glaring weakness (like pass rush was last year) it's better to trade for a known quantity than roll the dice on college players IMO. And that explains the Pats' moves at OLB and CB last year (Banta Cain, Burgess, Bodden, Springs).
    Last edited: May 29, 2010
  15. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

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    What happens if they pick a pro bowl player with one of those picks? Or do we just assume that out 3rd round picks will end up doing very little these days?
  16. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

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    If you think like that then you'll go crazy. What if Burgess goes on to contribute in every way he can and the Pats win the Superbowl?
  17. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    EXACTLY. Draft picks are precious commodities, and ~ respectfully submitted ~ far too many fans are oblivious to the incipient mediocrity of Washington, which is a direct result of that "Let's Burn the Draft Picks for aging Veterans!" mentality.
  18. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    You completely missed the point:

    We could've signed Burgess, this year, without giving up ANY Draft Picks!
  19. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    Come again??

    We could've drafted OLB Thad Gibson in the 3rd Round, and RB Deji Karim in the 5th.

    Hell, considering that they were drafted in the 4th and 6th, we could've traded back for 2 4ths and a 6th, and drafted:

    OLB Thad Gibson
    RT Bruce Campbell
    RB Deji Karim


    ...and THEN gone ahead and signed Burgess.

    NOT Coach Bill's best moment.
  20. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

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    No. You seem to be missing my point. The Pats had a need for a veteran pass-rusher last year. BB thought it was a good idea to trade a 3rd and 5th round to Oakland for Burgess. Did Burgess pan out the way BB had hoped? No. I think BB would be the first one to agree with you. Now they've resigned him for one more year. Obviously BB sees something he likes and thinks Burgess will be a better fit this year.

    The fact that they gave up those draft picks last year is an after-thought. If you want to sit there and fret over that and totally negate the fact that BB is the master of accruing future picks then more power to you, but I for one think he's pretty ******* good at what he does.
  21. 363839

    363839 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They might have a season under their belt. They might have been cut, too. Either that or placed on IR just like Crable and Mackenzie.
    The Pats needed a pass rusher for 09 and BB took a chance on the only viable prospect available.
  22. capetide

    capetide Rookie

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    Who could we have drafted for the 2nd and 7th picks for Welker and the 4th for Moss? Weren't those picks just as "precious" commodities as the ones traded for Burgess?
  23. eom

    eom Rookie

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    you guys are hilarious.

    I guess belichick should have looked into his crystal ball and realized that we wouldn't make it past round one of the playoffs, so he could just flush that season, keep those picks, and sign burgess now.

    what if we drafted a pro bowler with a 7th round pick --- would a 7th be too much for burgess, since we supposedly could've just signed him as a fa right now?

    they'd have a full season under their belts.....lolz!:rofl::rofl:
  24. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In hindsight the Burgess trade was not a good one for the Pats. Burgess didn't really offer what the Pats hoped for until the last month of the season. It doesn't help for last year, but it is a positive sign for this year.

    In defense of Belichick, Burgess was like plan E to find a pass rushing OLB. Plan A was TBC which he got. Plan B was Julius Peppers who refused to play ball and sign his franchise tender so the Pats could negotiate with the Panthers. Plan C was Jason Taylor who the Pats thought they had locked up, but he used them to get the Dolphins to resign him. Plan D was Greg Ellis who the Pats made an offer to, but were outbidded by the Raiders (which ironically made Burgess a tradable commodity for the Raiders).

    As for the draft picks, the Pats had four picks in the first round. Odds are that one or both of the picks the Pats gave up to get Burgess would have been traded into 2011 picks and people would be biatching about those picks for a different reason.

    Yes, in hindsight, the Burgess trade was not a good trade. But if you go back to the time of the trade, most people on this board were happy about the trade. Trades are a gamble no matter how good the player is. There have been some great players who have been traded to teams and sucked. There have been some mediocre players traded for nothing and become Pro Bowlers on their new team.
    Last edited: May 29, 2010
  25. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    Evaluating in a "what's good about it NOW" way, suppose the 5th was a nubbin' and the third just started to come on at the end of the year, like Burgess did.

    Now we have him back, with time in the system AND he's a known quantity. Bill is well aware of his progression, strengths and weaknesses. If we'd signed him this year, we'd be waiting until the last month for production and saying it was a stupid signing.

    Now we have a declining but not "done" vet rusher with a year in the system for very reasonable money while we groom some young rushers. Not a terrible set-up in my view, considering you can only play the cards you're dealt.
  26. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    I don't think plan B was ever a consideration.
  27. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Patriots could have drafted those 3 at any time. I have news for you. They passed on them numerous times. That should tell you that the Pats had no interest in them. It should be telling that the Pats chose Zoltan Mesko over Karim in the 5th round.

    Did the Pats get 3rd and 5th value out of Burgess? No. But to theorize that they could have gotten players that it was clear they had no interest in is just silly.
  28. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If the pass rush was such a desperate need for last year, the Seymour trade shouldn't have been made (This is not brought up to talk about that Seymour deal on its own, but just to note that he helped generate pass rush and was traded away). The Burgess trade was terrible at the time it was made, and it looks even worse in hindsight. It was one of many Belichick mistakes last season, and it has repercussions moving forward because of the lost draft picks. Belichick may be good at what he does, but he's not perfect and he was way off of his game last year.

    And if draft picks were such an afterthought, BB wouldn't be trading all over the place to get more of them.
  29. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think Plan B was a consideration as long as they could get him at a price they were willing to get. Far from a likely outcome, but not impossible.
  30. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    You know, I know it seemed like a lot to give up for Burgess, but OTOH, BB had the draft capital to spend. As it is we will have several more rookies on this team than roster spots for them. 2 more wouldn't have made the logjam any less foreboding.

    BTW- a low 3rd and 5th round pick isn't that high for a proven situational pass rusher....IF he proves to be effective at his job. Only time will tell if those last 4 games were a picture of what we should expect this season, or just an aberration.
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