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Red zone defense is now on a 14-straight losing streak (Herald article)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fencer, Sep 21, 2007.

  1. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/football/patriots/view.bg?articleid=1033110

    Or more. I didn't check the last game of last regular season.

    Besides being 4-4 giving up TDs this season, the red zone defense was 10-10 last postseason.

    Now, I recognize that this streak comprises 5 games, of which 1 was against the Colts, 2 were against a team that has Antonio Gates, and 2 were against a team coached by a guy who really knows BB's defense.

    Still -- ouch.
     
  2. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    We need another Ted Johnson type of linebacker.

    Larry Izzo absolutely sucks in the red zone defense, and inexplicably has been part of our goal-line D in the playoffs the past 2 years.
     
  3. DisgruntledTunaFan

    DisgruntledTunaFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    But they've only given up 14 pts/game, right? That's pretty darn good anyways.

    Regardless, it's not like they're getting down there that much anyways-and when they do, it's not 'till the Pats are WAY ahead.
     
  4. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ In the Starting Line-Up

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    That 14 for 14 number is number of times points were scored, not number of time touchdowns were scored.

    Usually when you see "red zone conversion" statistics, it's one of two things -- either how often the team that got in the red zone scored or how often it scored a touchdown. Of the two, the second is the much more significant stat. I think the "official" stat kept by the NFL is touchdowns converted.

    Teams usually -- in fact almost always -- come away with point once they get inside your 20 yard line. Absent a turnover, or a large losing yardage play like a sack or a penalty, you're talking about no more than a 37-yard field goal. Even with a hold or something taking you out of the red zone, it's still a makeable distance. So 14 out of 14 is a bit high, but not crazy.

    It's a much different story if you look at TD conversion rates. I think in the Jets game it was 1 for 4 for the Jets. In fact, I think the Jets were forced to kick 3 field goals of very short distance -- from inside the 10 or 15 -- which means that actually our red zone defense won the game. We bucked up on defense with our backs to the end zone. In the Colts game, I think two or three of those scores were field goals.

    Ultimately, I don't think red zone conversion stats are very useful. The most important defensive stat is how well you keep the other team out of the red zone. I'd rather have the team that goes 3-6 in the red zone than the one that goes 2-2. Plus, it's not a true measure of how you play when your back is to the wall. The chargers started a drive in field goal range, and lost 20 yards. That gets lost in the 2-2.

    The patriots scored every time they were in the red zone against the Chargers -- two touchdowns a field goal. They also scored twice from just outside the red zone. Is that worse or better? If the red zone started at the 24 instead of the 20, the patriots would have been 4 for 6 on TDs with one filed goal and one miss. But "officially," they were 2 for 3. What is this measuring exactly anyway.

    At the end of the day, by the way, the most significant factor for determining whether you will score in the red zone is where the possessions start. Imagine a team starts its possession in the red zone at the 9 yard line. They will convert less than half the time. Whereas a team that starts at 4 will almost always convert.
     
  5. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Thanks. I feel better now. Also stupid for not checking that, and not remembering either.
     
  6. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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  7. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So basically now we're a don't-bend-or-we'll-break defense?

    Damn it's hard to tell the players without a scorecard...
     
  8. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Yes, our redzone defense hasn't been great, but also comingled with this statistic is that we've played 5 straight games against "playoff" teams, 3 of which were against top 3 offenses, and we've only allowed 14 Red Zone appearances. Less than 3 a game.
     
  9. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick In the Starting Line-Up

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    great post, especially since the Pats are team that generally excel at red zone defense
     
  10. FirstAndGoal

    FirstAndGoal Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    We suck. Time to cheer for the Steelers....
     

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