Red Sox, Twins Discussing Deal for Santana

[VJCPatriot]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3133598

"The Red Sox and Twins are discussing the framework of a Johan Santana deal that would have Boston sending four players to Minnesota in return for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Jon Lester and minor-league shortstop Jed Lowrie, the trio that would to anchor the deal. Red Sox pitcher Michael Bowden has been discussed as a possible fourth player, sources say, but the identity of the fourth player is in flux. Even if the Red Sox and Twins agree on the framework for a deal -- and as of early Thursday afternoon, that hadn't happened -- Boston would still face an enormous hurdle to complete the contract. Santana, who will be 29 at the outset of next season, has a full no-trade clause and is expected to ask for a market ceiling-type of contract of six years and about $150 million."
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If they can keep Ellsbury and Pedroia, it's a no brainer to me. Even the best pitching prospects are still a roll of the dice, I'd give up Lester, Bucholz, and Crisp in a heartbeat AND fork over the money to Santana.

I'd rather hold onto Bucholz. I'd be willing to throw in Masterson or possibly Bowden instead.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I still strongly disagree - Buchholz is going to cost a fraction of what Santana will for the next 5+ years, and by all accounts, could very well wind up being an ace. Even if he only gives you 60% of what Santana does, let's say for instance Buchholz has averages a 4 ERA, 15 wins over the next 5 seasons - the value in that is too great to give up for Santana. The fact that Santana replaces him in the rotation is besides the point, I'd rather give up a different piece. Buchholz is so low risk and so high ceiling.

I think we're back to the fundamental issue everyone is trying to get a grip on:

Potential vs. Proven Performance

Some people would rather part with potential to gain proven Ace performance, knowing that while there is a chance the pitcher they let go too could be an ace, there's also just as likely - if not higher a chance - that he won't be.

Some people would prefer to take a pass on Proven Performance, preferring to take a chance that more players will pan out than will underachieve.

Hold a gun to my head and I'll take Proven Performance every time. The list of "one no-hit wonders" is a very long one. Bucholtz might or might not be on it, but one thing is for certain - Johann Santana is NOT.

Beyond that, I again question those who state that the Yankees should not be factored into the decision, and that "we're already good enough to win the world series - we don't need to upgrade"

Unless we're playing the 2007 season over again with all teams having the same players, that's completely irrelevant.

We don't have to be better than last season. We simply need to be better than all other teams are THIS season.

And letting the Yankees get stronger while we stand pat is something I'd recommend avoiding - especially when there's the opportunity to see the Red Sox get stronger while keeping the Yankees weak.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I'm not close to the cliff if the Yankees sign Santana. If you factor into the equation, that the Sox pushed them into including Huges, who would be a starter in their rotation, and add the other assets in the deal. I'd rather see how all the youngsters develop before moaning about not having Santana.

And I wonder if the Red Sox are simply trying to up the ante forcing the Yankees to overpay/pay more for Santana while keeping their young talent/

 

[patsfanofNC12]

And I wonder if the Red Sox are simply trying to up the ante forcing the Yankees to overpay/pay more for Santana while keeping their young talent/

That would be funny if they were, especially if they got the yankees to throw in chamberlain

 

[dwayne]

Ellsbury for Santana straight up would be too much, from a purely emotional standpoint.

There's no way it should be done; Pedroia and Ellsbury should be leading the team for the next 15 odd years, and could/should provide the spine of the side once Manny, Ortiz, Lowell, etc. are of retirement age.

 

[patriotspride]

That would be funny if they were, especially if they got the yankees to throw in chamberlain

i hope thats what they are doing.because giving up ellsbury is to much .

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

i hope thats what they are doing.because giving up ellsbury is to much .

Absolutely, the Yankees are in the position the Red Sox occupied for so many years, that of the coyote chasing the roadrunner (or is it the other way around?) and they are in panic mode to get Santana and are willing to overpay. If by doing so, they weaken themselves in other areas, so be it and kudos to Theo.....
Or they could call the Twins and tell them, " here's our final offer, No Jacoby, No Clay just Lester and 2 prospects. Take it or leave it...Oh and if you reject it,we'll call the Yankees and tell them we're out of the bidding, taking away your leverage and they will certainly weaken their offer"....

Or play the game of chicken and let the Yankees overpay giving up Hughes or Chamberlin or Cabrera or some combination......

 

[patriotspride]

Absolutely, the Yankees are in the position the Red Sox occupied for so many years, that of the coyote chasing the roadrunner (or is it the other way around?) and they are in panic mode to get Santana and are willing to overpay. If by doing so, they weaken themselves in other areas, so be it and kudos to Theo.....
Or they could call the Twins and tell them, " here's our final offer, No Jacoby, No Clay just Lester and 2 prospects. Take it or leave it...Oh and if you reject it,we'll call the Yankees and tell them we're out of the bidding, taking away your leverage and they will certainly weaken their offer"....

Or play the game of chicken and let the Yankees overpay giving up Hughes or Chamberlin or Cabrera or some combination......

i would love to see the stinkees give up chamberlin hughes and cabrera .that would be sweet .

 

[ctpatsfan77]

A comment from the Extra Bases blog (emphases mine):

The idea of paying $25m for one player, which Santana reportedly is seeking, also is problematic, especially if you are the Sox and Josh Beckett is being paid $10m a year. The feeling I get is that the Sox would like Santana, but love the idea of the Yanks having to shell out more than $50m a year to just two players, A-Rod and Santana.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

A comment from the Extra Bases blog (emphases mine):

And whom do you start on opening day and does it create a rift in the clubhouse...i.e. who's the ace???

 

[JoeSixPat]

i would love to see the stinkees give up chamberlin hughes and cabrera .that would be sweet .

They might be just that desperate to make that trade - while not knowing who they replace chamberlain with, one would have to question how much stronger the Yankees are without those two pitchers, even with Santana.

I think we've known all along that even if the Sox weren't actually interested in Santana they'd be acting exactly the same way they are, driving up the price in terms of player and salary.

And whom do you start on opening day and does it create a rift in the clubhouse...i.e. who's the ace???

That wouldn't be even slightly disputed this season. Beckett would get the call. Santana as the new guy regardless of his contract would be the #2. Santana, the Sox and Beckett all understand this.

While there can be salary related ego problems in a clubhouse too, I think Beckett is also smart enough to understand that he extended his deal 2 years ago and that the market was different then.

As far as who is the "ace" in the future - i.e. who is the #1 pitcher who starts on opening day - that's not decided until 2009 and is based on performance.

From a practical standpoint, if there's an opportunity with offdays even this season, I could see Francona deciding to start certain series with Beckett and some with Santana depending on current and future matchups. Those are baseball decisions rather than ego decisions.

 

[Real World]

The Yankees are never going to include Chamberlain in a deal for Santana. It's just not happening. Would the Sox include Papelbon? I don't think so. Joba is a Josh Beckett type prospect. At worse, he's Papelbon in the pen. With Mariano being 37, they aren't giving up the possibility of a 21 year old beckett, nor the guarantee of at least another Rivera type in the pen. That's just not happening.

The word today is that the Sox are willing to include Ellsbury in a deal for Santana. Unless the Yankees withdraw their offer, the Sox will have to include one of the Ellsbury/Buckholz duo to get a deal done. As I yankees fan I hate to give up Hughes, just like Sox fans don't want to give up Ellsbury.

BTW, you all overrate Lester's value. He doesn't have the command to be a top of the rotation pitcher. His minor league BB per 9 were not good, and that's continued in the pros. That doesn't mean he can't become a top end pitcher, it just means that he's not as valuable as most of the other pitchers being mentioned for Santana.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The Yankees are never going to include Chamberlain in a deal for Santana. It's just not happening. Would the Sox include Papelbon? I don't think so. Joba is a Josh Beckett type prospect. At worse, he's Papelbon in the pen. With Mariano being 37, they aren't giving up the possibility of a 21 year old beckett, nor the guarantee of at least another Rivera type in the pen. That's just not happening.

The word today is that the Sox are willing to include Ellsbury in a deal for Santana. Unless the Yankees withdraw their offer, the Sox will have to include one of the Ellsbury/Buckholz duo to get a deal done. As I yankees fan I hate to give up Hughes, just like Sox fans don't want to give up Ellsbury.

BTW, you all overrate Lester's value. He doesn't have the command to be a top of the rotation pitcher. His minor league BB per 9 were not good, and that's continued in the pros. That doesn't mean he can't become a top end pitcher, it just means that he's not as valuable as most of the other pitchers being mentioned for Santana.

I agree they'd be crazy to include Chamberlain - like I said, if they did, I question how much better overall they'd be come the season.

I'm not sure about everyone else but I'm not going overboard about Lester and indeed I've heard more people balk about Bucholtz than Lester in this deal.

I guess Lester does have more major league time on his hands though - but I think for the Red Sox he's a #4 pitcher at best and a #3 on another team. I probably have him ahead of Bucholtz at this point but that's probably temporary.

Bucholtz, Lester, and Crisp would be a fine trade for Santana in my mind.

But I think I'd prefer to keep Bucholtz and trade Lester and Crisp for Haren instead.

 

[Foley]

the sides have exchanged medical information on pitcher Jon Lester and Johan Santana, indicating that a deal may be in place.

There were indications that the Twins would be getting center fielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie in addition to Lester

Link

This of course assumes that Hank sticks to his word and stays out of negotiations. Which I think anyone recognizes as a very unlikely scenario.

 

[Real World]

I agree they'd be crazy to include Chamberlain - like I said, if they did, I question how much better overall they'd be come the season.

I'm not sure about everyone else but I'm not going overboard about Lester and indeed I've heard more people balk about Bucholtz than Lester in this deal.

I guess Lester does have more major league time on his hands though - but I think for the Red Sox he's a #4 pitcher at best and a #3 on another team. I probably have him ahead of Bucholtz at this point but that's probably temporary.

Bucholtz, Lester, and Crisp would be a fine trade for Santana in my mind.

But I think I'd prefer to keep Bucholtz and trade Lester and Crisp for Haren instead.

Lester & Crisp wouldn't sniff Haren. A deal for Haren would be built around Buckholz and/or Ellsbury, with icing thereafter. Beane isn't trading Haren for a deal centered around an end of the rotation guy in Lester, and a 28 year old outfielder who can't hit. Remember, Haren is controlled for 3 years, and isn't going to cost the aquiring team a $150 million extension. A deal for Haren will be Buckholz +, or Ellsbury +, or maybe even both. I don't think the Redsox would do both, as they shouldn't, but Beane will ask. Beane has informed people that he'll ask for Hughes and Kennedy from the Yankees. There's going to be a bigger market for Haren, which means more competition. Haren represents the opportunity of a smaller market team aquiring a financially affordable ace of sorts. What would the Dodgers give up for Haren? How about the Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, Toronto, Cleveland, Angels, Atlanta, Philly, Detroit, etc...All those teams, and more, will be players for Haren. They won't be for Santana. That drives up the price.

I'd think Buckholz, Lester, & Crisp would do it for Santana. If it doesn't, then if I'm the Redsox I walk away. The Twins can't be too greedy here.

 

[Real World]

Link

This of course assumes that Hank sticks to his word and stays out of negotiations. Which I think anyone recognizes as a very unlikely scenario.

I just read that on another site. If that's legit, then the Sox just stole Santana. They traded a a couple of dimes, and a nickel, and got back a buck. Great move for the Sox if that's the deal. I'd have to think that Ellsbury would have to be in place of Crisp if I'm the Twins. None of those prospects blow me away.

 

[scout]

Breaking News: the twins are deciding on two options.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1048739

I think this is close, we may have news soon.

 

[BelichickFan]

I just read that on another site. If that's legit, then the Sox just stole Santana. They traded a a couple of dimes, and a nickel, and got back a buck. Great move for the Sox if that's the deal. I'd have to think that Ellsbury would have to be in place of Crisp if I'm the Twins. None of those prospects blow me away.

Yes. Lester has potential but didn't impress me even before the health issues. The other guys are JAGs or good but not great prospects. I am absolutely stunned the Yankees are letting this happen - Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, the filler and Buchholtz close . . . wow . . . the Red Sox may win more than the Patriots

 

[VJCPatriot]

Breaking News: the twins are deciding on two options.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1048739

I think this is close, we may have news soon.

This is pretty exciting stuff. Frankly I hope the Twins take the Lester package instead. Santana will replace him in the rotation and might even take the #1 spot. I think Tito will let Beckett and Santana battle it out?

The question on my mind is how much will it take to SIGN Santana once the deal is done. Would 125M for 6 years get it done?

 

[scout]

This is pretty exciting stuff. Frankly I hope the Twins take the Lester package instead. Santana will replace him in the rotation and might even take the #1 spot. I think Tito will let Beckett and Santana battle it out?

The question on my mind is how much will it take to SIGN Santana once the deal is done. Would 125M for 6 years get it done?

Ditto. I would rather throw in another player with the Lester package then deal Ellsbury. If Ellsbury leaves, for some reason I'm seeing him in a Yankee uniform down the road, and that would kill me.