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RB in the 3rd or 4th

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by MrNathanDrake, Oct 12, 2010.

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  1. MrNathanDrake

    MrNathanDrake In the Starting Line-Up

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    #95 Jersey

    Look at all the sucessfull RB's that were taken in mid-late rounds, or even undrafted.

    Arian Foster
    Matt Forte
    Steve Slaton
    Ryan Grant
    BJGE (beat out 1st rd Maroney)
    Willie Parker
    Ray Rice
    Maurice Jones Drew
    Darren Sproles
    Shonne Green
    Michael Bush
    Brandon Jacobs
    Leon Washington

    etc etc etc.

    Would any one else here be upset if we take a RB in the 1st rd?

    The success rate on RB's in the mid-late rounds are very high while the success rate of DE and OLB in those rds is much smaller.
     
  2. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

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    Forte , Rice and Jones-Drew. The best ones on your list were 2nd rounders. Not quite mid to late. Shonne Green also 2nd rounder. Heck, I'd like to draft two rb's this year. I'd take one in the 2nd if one fits our system. M.LeShoure - Illini seems to be coming on. And, I'd take another in the 3-5 rounds.
     
  3. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #3 Jersey

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    I'm not a draft expert, but from a strategy standpoint, the Moss trades indicates they're likely to take a running back very high. The offense is clearly leaning towards a balanced, multi-faceted attack. With great tight ends, they'll keep teams guessing, making Brady very dangerous out of playaction. I think a stud RB who can also catch out of the backfield ala Ray Rice is worth a top 15 pick. The NFL is now filled with talented WRs with new ones popping up every day.
     
  5. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Green was a 3rd round pick;). Hitting on mid to late round rb's is very possible but its not likely.
     
  6. reamer

    reamer Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Vai Taua is a guy I'm interested in seeing more of this season. He's got good size (5'10 #220) and has averaged over 7 yards a carry this year and last. He's highly productive, runs hard, and gets the ball in the end zone. Now, he's only a 4.5 kind of guy, and Nevada primarily operates out of a pistol offense, so some people are a little wary of his translation to a pro-style offense. Nonetheless, I think he'd be an excellent young addition to our rotation. We could use as many young sledgehammers as possible. :D
     
  7. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #3 Jersey

    Actually, it's a lot likelier than you might think. :cool:

    Drake's list was rampant with errors. Here's the real list, stabbed + dragged from my previous post on the 64 Thread:

    3rd ~ Frank Gore
    3rd ~ Jamaal Charles
    3rd ~ Shonn Greene
    4th ~ Marion Barber
    4th ~ Brandon Jacobs
    4th ~ Darren Sproles
    4th ~ Leon Washington
    4th ~ Tashard Choice
    4th ~ Michael Bush
    5th ~ Michael Turner
    5th ~ Jerome Harrison
    7th ~ Derek Ward
    7th ~ Jason Snelling
    7th ~ Ahmad Bradshaw
    FA ~ Willie Parker
    FA ~ Ryan Grant
    FA ~ BenJarvus Green
    FA ~ Danny WoodHead
    FA ~ * Arien Foster *


    And that's just recently...
     
  8. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    think about how many backs were drafted in total. I should change my statement and say don't expect your mid round RB to hit it big.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2010
  9. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think the Nevada QB is really special. His ability to throw the ball means Nevada sees a lot of 6 men in the box defenses. Easy to average 7 YPC against half a defense.

    I would not be upset if BB drafted the Nevada QB as a developmental type QB.
     
  10. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think Taua's countryman Helu of Nebraska is a interesting RB that kind of projects well in our offense.
     
  11. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Curtis Martin.....
     
  12. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Fair statement, sir. :cool:

    My position is that Running Back is the easiest position to fill with capable guys ~ far more so than Flanker or Defensive End ~ and that you can often get such capable guys later in the draft, as my previous post clearly shows, I believe.

    But if your position is that you shouldn't expect a Mid Round RB to hit it big...that's certainly fair to say.

    Where we diverge, of course, is in which positions one should prioritize. :cool:
     
  13. dliverey

    dliverey Rookie

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    I want our very own CJ2K, Jamal Charles, Jahvid best, Spiller. That is why we need to draft Andre Ellington.

    That is all
     
  14. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    To be honest, Id take the elite DE over the elite RB any day of the week (assuming both are of need). I have no problem with BB waiting until later in the draft to pick up an RB.
     
  15. Defsoul

    Defsoul On the Game Day Roster

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    When we probably have to wait another year or two, since he's only a redshirt sophomore. But I like him too.
     
  16. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

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    Great player. What's your point?
     
  17. dliverey

    dliverey Rookie

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    Since he is a RS soph, I think he qualifies for the 3 year past high school rule.

    I am crossing my fingers extra hard hoping he declares.
     
  18. Defsoul

    Defsoul On the Game Day Roster

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    Yes, he can declare for the draft since he'll have spent three years in college. I just think that the odds of him declaring are not that high. Your rarely see redshirt sophomores leave early unless they have a chance to be drafted early like Earl Thomas or Aaron Maybin.
     
  19. MaineMan

    MaineMan 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    From 2004-2008, nearly 18 RBs were drafted per year on average (not including FBs).

    Based on my purely subjective evaluation of "success" v. "failure", which was pretty harsh for this (e.g., I have Steve Slaton in the "failure" column), here are the "success" percentages I came up with:

    2004 - 36% of 14
    2005 - 40% of 20
    2006 - 40% of 15
    2007 - 22% of 18
    2008 - 57% of 23 (so far)

    For the five-year period:
    1st rd - 82% of 17 (partly inflated by the 5 "hits" in 2008)
    2nd rd - 45% of 11
    3rd rd - 25% of 12
    4th rd - 43% of 14
    5th rd - 43% of 7
    6th rd - 9% of 11
    7th rd - 17% of 18

    Every draft but 2006 produced one solid UDFA.
     
  20. MaineMan

    MaineMan 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Speaking of successful UDFA RBs . . .

    I was looking up something else on FootballOutsiders today and happened across this gem for 2010 stats:

    #1 DVOA - BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 34.5%
    -- Next closest - Jason Snelling, 28.4%

    #1 Success Rate - BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 74%
    -- Next closest - Ricky Williams, 58%

    In DYAR (total overall value):
    #1 - Arian Foster
    #2 - LeSean McCoy
    #3 - Adrian Peterson
    #4 - BenJarvus Green-Ellis
    #5 - LT
    #6 - Snelling
    #7 - Rice
    #8 - Mendenhall
    #9 - Charles
    #10 - Turner
     
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