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Rasmussen

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by BelichickFan, Nov 5, 2009.

  1. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    As the Liberals here like to play a game of dismissing Rasmussen, I thought it should be pointed out that :

    Rasmussen had Christie at +3 and he won by +4.
    Rasmussen had McDonnell at +13 and he won by +18.

    In both races he underrated the win of the Republican.

    Also he was almost dead on with the Obama - McCain poll, his final number was 52-46 and the actual was 53-46. And he was ranked as the most accurate pollster for that election :

    http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2009
  2. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That information doesn't fit the template, everyone loves dear leader.
     
  3. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    I'm not sure exactly what it is about Rasmussen. The horserace polling usually tends to be pretty accurate, while the approval/disapproval and issue-based polling... not so much, to be charitable.

    You'll notice I've not once dismissed a horserace Rasmussen poll. And FYI, they didn't underestimate Republican support in the Christie race.
     
  4. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    Thank you for that insightful post, moderator.
     
  5. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Glad to help educate the unwashed masses. Apparently you haven't seen the comments about what a right wing slug Ras and his polls are.
     
  6. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    Christie won 49-45, Rasmussen had Christie at 46-43 (as of the last poll of his I found, it was from 10/30).
     
  7. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    That may be but there's at least one post of yours that I could link to in which you dismiss Rasmussen generically which is simply wrong to do.
     
  8. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What wouldlead you to believe his app/dis polling is any less accurate since the same methodology is used?

    Perhaps the other polls are not accurate since we see their horserace polling is also inaccurate. Makes sense.
     
  9. PatsFanInMaine

    PatsFanInMaine Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Rasmussen doesn't let his political leanings influence his polling. His business depends on his accuracy. Doubt he wants to have a moment like this:

    Zogby International

    Many of us had a good laugh the night of Nov 2 2004 knowing how wrong this was.

     
  10. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    Glad you're now referring to posters on the message board you "moderate" as unwashed masses.

    Rasmussen and his polls do typically skew to the right.
     
  11. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    Are you familiar with the concept of a margin of error?
     
  12. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    Of course I am - and although this was within that, he still had the Republican a little underestimated even though it was within the margin of error. Margin of error does NOT mean that any numbers within it are considered equal.
     
  13. patsfan13

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    Why is everyone so humorless today, is to hangover from the leection?



    Based on WHAT data?
     
  14. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    Are you familiar with the concept of an outlier?
     
  15. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    It DOES mean that there is likely no statistical difference between those numbers.
     
  16. JackBauer

    JackBauer Pro Bowl Player

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    Look at his Obama job approval poll.

    Or many issue based polls, where subtle differences in wording end up making a pretty significant difference.
     
  17. patsfan13

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    Right Bo's approval started out high and has deteorated, he does differentiate the strong approve.disapprove from the overall approve disapprove. His readings were bourne out in the recent election results. Gallup has similar # for BO and the same track starting out high and then dropping like a rock.

    Again what data other than you claim?
     
  18. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    I think we're nitpicking not disagreeing, what you said is correct but Rasmussen still estimated lower for the Republican than what actually happened.
     

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