Rappaport expects Revis to cover Hernandez

[TheTeufelShuffle]

According to Rich Cimini at ESPN.COM New York:

The Jets blitz a defensive back more frequently than any other team in the NFL, 141 times or 31 times more often than the next closest.
tom Terrific has a 69.5 passer rating vs. DB blitz's. 7th worst in the NFL with at least 20 attempts.


think we'll see some of that?

 

[Rob0729]

my biggest concern will be connolly on ellis in passing situations

Really?!? Ellis hasn't really been that great this year. The guy has 3.5 sacks for the year and the Jets are having problems pressuring the QB even with a blitz. I don't think the pass rush in general is my biggest concern with the Jets. The Jets beat the Pats in the second half of the first game without much of a rush and great coverage. Eventhough I think the Pats as they currently are configured are a bad match up for the Jets' defense, I still think it will be the secondary of the Jets that will shut down the Pats if they do.

 

[Rob0729]

According to Rich Cimini at ESPN.COM New York:

The Jets blitz a defensive back more frequently than any other team in the NFL, 141 times or 31 times more often than the next closest.
tom Terrific has a 69.5 passer rating vs. DB blitz's. 7th worst in the NFL with at least 20 attempts.


think we'll see some of that?

The thing is how often does a team run a safety or CB blitz? Usually when you blitz, you bring an extra LB. The Jets might throw several DB blitzes, but you start doing it a lot and you will start to get killed.

Besides, those stats can be deceiving. How many DB blitzes have Brady faced? How has he done the last month against the safety blitz (since he has brought his game to a new level this month)? How many of the 141 blitzes by the Jets have been DB blitzes?

It seems the Jets fans and media are really hung up on using stats to show how the Pats can lose on Monday. I think stats are really deceiving especially since both teams have been different in recent weeks than they were the first month or two of the year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Agreed, I expect that'll be the match-up for the majority of the time. Welker absolutely destroyed them in last year's win. He wasn't healthy in week 2, it's obvious the difference between now and then, and so I'd expect them to put Revis there with some double teams as well. Gronk and Hernandez should both see significant playing time this week and will have the chance to be major factors.

Woody will still get a lot of plays even if we don't use play-action. At first I thought he'd be the Faulk replacement 3rd-down guy, but he's been running on all downs on some drives, and his blocking has been good enough that he can stay out there even when they're not in play-action and take the dump-offs and go with it.

We talk about Faulk as a "third-down" or "change-of-pace" back, but he was, at least the last few years, always quite a bit more than that. For example, in the last Pats-JEST playoff game, I remember a stretch where the Pats used the same play to Faulk on four or five consecutive downs, and he picked up 5+ yards on each of them.

 

[TheTeufelShuffle]

The thing is how often does a team run a safety or CB blitz? Usually when you blitz, you bring an extra LB. The Jets might throw several DB blitzes, but you start doing it a lot and you will start to get killed.

Besides, those stats can be deceiving. How many DB blitzes have Brady faced? How has he done the last month against the safety blitz (since he has brought his game to a new level this month)? How many of the 141 blitzes by the Jets have been DB blitzes?

It seems the Jets fans and media are really hung up on using stats to show how the Pats can lose on Monday. I think stats are really deceiving especially since both teams have been different in recent weeks than they were the first month or two of the year.

All of those 141 blitzes were DB blitzes, thats the point. The Jets bring safteys or corners more than any other team in the NFL, and this year at least Brady has been shaky versus that look.

Over 11 games, that means the Jets brought a DB about 13 times a game. Assuming 70 snaps, that is just under 20% of plays per game. So I would view it as fairly critical to the outcome...

 

[GangGreen]

Cant see Revis on the TE. There probably going to go with Revis on Branch, Cro on the TE and bracket Wes with either Colman or Wilson with safety help. By the way because you guys dont have a true #1 reciver I wouldnt be surprised to see Rex send Revis on a corner blitz this week.

 

[Rob0729]

All of those 141 blitzes were DB blitzes, thats the point. The Jets bring safteys or corners more than any other team in the NFL, and this year at least Brady has been shaky versus that look.

Over 11 games, that means the Jets brought a DB about 13 times a game. Assuming 70 snaps, that is just under 20% of plays per game. So I would view it as fairly critical to the outcome...

Ok, I missed the part about the Jets. But it still doesn't answer my question about Brady. Brady could be perfect vs. the DB blitz over the last month for all we know and horrible vs. it prior to that.

In the last three weeks, Brady has completed 69.8% of his passes against Pittburgh (30 for 43 for 350 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs), 76% of his passes against Indy (19 for 25 for 186 yards and 2 TDs and 0 INTs), and 77.8% of his passes against the Lions (21 for 27 for 341 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs). You gotta think he has faced multiple DB blitzes over the last three weeks and has been successful vs. them. I still think at least his stat is questionable since Brady now is not the same Brady earlier in the year. I do know when he had Randy Moss here, he would be more suseptible vs. the blitz because he was waiting for Randy to get open.

At least part of my argument stands. I was wrong about the Jets, but I don't think Brady is nearly as suseptable now against the DB blitz than he was even a month ago.

 

[BradyManny]

Hernandez....well, there's no telling if he's getting a lot of snaps this week - his snaps have been way down the last two weeks. Does he match up better vs. the Jets? Perhaps - we may have to abandon the run a little, so we may see more Hernandez than Crump.

 

[Rob0729]

Cant see Revis on the TE. There probably going to go with Revis on Branch, Cro on the TE and bracket Wes with either Colman or Wilson with safety help. By the way because you guys dont have a true #1 reciver I wouldnt be surprised to see Rex send Revis on a corner blitz this week.

Personally, I think that is the best solution for the Jets. I think revis can cover Branch better than Welker although there are routes that Branch runs that plays into Revis' weaknesses (Revis doesn't have many weaknesses, but some of those quick breaks and misdirection routes can burn him). I think Cromartie is best suited to run vs. either Hernandez or Gronk. He is best suited facing big guys he can fight for the ball for than small route runners. I think he will get burned against Welker or Branch too much. It still leaves Welker and Woodhead with favorable match ups, but still think it is the best way to stop the Pats. They just hope Welker and Woodhead stay to 3-5 receptions and not 10-15+ ones. They just gotta make sure the guys covering them make sure they don't get YAC which is not an easy feat.

 

[Mangold74]

Revis will be on Welker, Cromatie will be on be on Branch. Both are good matchups.

The Jets do not have players that matchup with Gronkowski or Hernandez and both will need to be covered by using different players, hi-low and left-right double teams. I'm sure the Pats will do something similar with Keller even though their linebackers and safeties are much better in coverage then the Jets.

I would look for the Jets to put a lot of secondary and linebackers on the field and almost beg the pats to run the ball.

 

[GangGreen]

Personally, I think that is the best solution for the Jets. I think revis can cover Branch better than Welker although there are routes that Branch runs that plays into Revis' weaknesses (Revis doesn't have many weaknesses, but some of those quick breaks and misdirection routes can burn him). I think Cromartie is best suited to run vs. either Hernandez or Gronk. He is best suited facing big guys he can fight for the ball for than small route runners. I think he will get burned against Welker or Branch too much. It still leaves Welker and Woodhead with favorable match ups, but still think it is the best way to stop the Pats. They just hope Welker and Woodhead stay to 3-5 receptions and not 10-15+ ones. They just gotta make sure the guys covering them make sure they don't get YAC which is not an easy feat.

If they put Revis on Branch you can forget about him for the rest of the game. Brady is to smart to try to force it to him with Revis on him especially Revis being back to last years form. Shutting down Megatron,AJ,and TO in the past couple of weeks.

 

[Patspsycho]

If they put Revis on Branch you can forget about him for the rest of the game. Brady is to smart to try to force it to him with Revis on him especially Revis being back to last years form. Shutting down Megatron,AJ,and TO in the past couple of weeks.

Revis will get either Welker or Branch and he will shut them down and that is fine- neither of them are prima donnas. They understand the nature of the game. This will just open up someone else to have a big day.

 

[GangGreen]

Revis will get either Welker or Branch and he will shut them down and that is fine- neither of them are prima donnas. They understand the nature of the game. This will just open up someone else to have a big day.

That is the biggest advantage I think you guys will have going into this game without Moss this time. Branch will not run back to the huddle lobbing for Brady to force it to him with Revis on him because he wants to show Revis up. They will just look to go some where else to exploit a more favorite match up for them.

 

[Rob0729]

If they put Revis on Branch you can forget about him for the rest of the game. Brady is to smart to try to force it to him with Revis on him especially Revis being back to last years form. Shutting down Megatron,AJ,and TO in the past couple of weeks.

Megatron, Andre Johnson, and TO are different WRs than Branch. Yes at least the two Johnsons are much better receivers than Branch, Branch is a type of WR that has caused Revis the most problems in the past. I think Branch can burn Revis on some quick breaks and slants. Granted they probably won't be big gainers.

 

[Mangold74]

Megatron, Andre Johnson, and TO are different WRs than Branch. Yes at least the two Johnsons are much better receivers than Branch, Branch is a type of WR that has caused Revis the most problems in the past. I think Branch can burn Revis on some quick breaks and slants. Granted they probably won't be big gainers.

Which Wr's have caused problems for him in the past? The only WR i've ever seen go off on Revis was dwayne bowe in 2008 when the Jets had zero pass rush.

 

[TheComeback]

That sounds like setting themselves up for failure. Cromartie is great against Moss, but not as useful against Welker and Branch. In that scenario, both Welker and Branch get favorable matchups.

Not to mention Gronkowski, who's been more productive than Hernandez lately. They don't have enough guys to cover all our receivers. As long as he has time and keeps his cool, Brady will have plenty of open receivers to throw to.

 

[GangGreen]

Megatron, Andre Johnson, and TO are different WRs than Branch. Yes at least the two Johnsons are much better receivers than Branch, Branch is a type of WR that has caused Revis the most problems in the past. I think Branch can burn Revis on some quick breaks and slants. Granted they probably won't be big gainers.

Revis is going to jam Branch at the line. Revis is to physical for him. Plus when Revis was banged up in beginning of the year they had him playing the more shifty small guys because he was able to jam them to death at the line and didnt have to run down the field with them as much.

 

[TheTeufelShuffle]

Not to mention Gronkowski, who's been more productive than Hernandez lately. They don't have enough guys to cover all our receivers. As long as he has time and keeps his cool, Brady will have plenty of open receivers to throw to.

I don't really understand this idea. Outside of a few drives recently, the Jets have been outstanding at covering multiple receiver sets. They are very deep at cornerback (with coleman, lowrey, wilson, and cole all playing).

The ONLY area they have struggled with at times has been seam routes to the tight ends. And often that is due to scheme, not inability to cover. The Jets like to bring pressure up the middle from S position. Of course that leaves them vulnerable in the area they blitzed from.

I think the Jets will do a heck of a job on Brady this week (and by heck of a job, I mean hold Tom to a lower %/YPA than he is used to.

If the Jets do not turn the ball over on offense and play solid specials, I do not see the Pats breaking 24pts

 

[Rob0729]

Which Wr's have caused problems for him in the past? The only WR i've ever seen go off on Revis was dwayne bowe in 2008 when the Jets had zero pass rush.

First of all, Revis says himself that small WRs gives him the most problems.

Second, most primary WRs are the big guys. There aren't a lot of small guys who are the primary WR on a team. So we don't have a lot of primary WRs he has lined up on. I would have to go back and look it up.

Third, the Jets have had very little pass rush this year (at least the last month and a half other against the Bungles). It hasn't stopped Revis from playing well against the two Johnsons eventhough Matthew Stafford and Matt Schaub had plenty of time to throw the ball on most plays.

Fourth earlier in the year he was getting burnt by smaller guys when he wasn't on primary WR. It could be that he was still not close to 100% or he just wasn't suited to follow these guys.

 

[Rob0729]

Revis is going to jam Branch at the line. Revis is to physical for him. Plus when Revis was banged up in beginning of the year they had him playing the more shifty small guys because he was able to jam them to death at the line and didnt have to run down the field with them as much.

That's assuming they line him up on the line on every play. If he lines up 5-10 yards off the line, Branch could have the ball before Revis even gets to him.