Raiders' pick scenarios - significant movement still possible

[Bonzo]

I care also. It matters a great deal. #12 to #18 is right in the "sweet spot" of the draft. BB can get an impact player on defense for years to come. A blue DE/OLB would pay dividends for years. I've been feeling like it's gonna end up at #14 or #15 for several weeks now and that is a very nice place to be.

I think you just may be on to something . . .

 

[IcyPatriot]

The possibilities are intriguing and the tackles are expected to start going in the teens right where we will be picking ... both Solder and Carimi are expected to be there.

 

[billdog3484]

If you don't care about this pick, you shouldn't use the word "our" to talk about the Patriots organization.

my personal opinion is that we obviously want a high pick. but to be honest, the thing im most concerned about at this point is winning the super bowl. lets worry about those things when they happen. throughout the season i worried, but realistically, picking 12 thru 17 doesnt mean that much. itd be nice to have 12, but whatever.

 

[JerseyDevil26]

I disagree with a few of my fellow boardies. Having the #12 could mean a heck of a lot more than #17. For all we know BB could want to pull the trigger on his guy at #12 who might not be there at #17.

There's no way we shouldn't want to get #12 instead of #17. It's common sense.

 

[captain insano]

if they do as well as they did last draft it wont matter where they pick. they are going to get one hell of a player at 12 or 17.

 

[37Harrison]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

Why are we, the fans that get excited about where the Pats are picking, a little strange. Part of what makes BB's drafts so exciting is the unknown of what he is going to do... make a selection or a trade for whatever. BB and his team obviously know more than us fans and his drafts are discussed throughout the year.

I suggest going into this draft without expectations of players but with expectations to be surprised. Don't do any research before the draft on players because BB will probably pick someone we've never heard of or didn't pay attention too for whatever reason. Then, when its all over, revel in the fleecing and domination BB had over the draft once again. :rocker:

 

[40yrpatsfan]

We've been very successful the past 2 years picking in the 2nd round: 7 in all, and all successful picks. With what we have this time, we can pick in the top 15 pick AND pick 2 or 3 times in the 2nd.

On the other hand, it's possible that at #7 or 8, a stud may still be on the board that BB covets, and this year I could see him making an aggressive move up. So our first few picks could go something like this:

- 1st pick, #15: package with our lower 2nd to move up to #7 or 8 if BB sees his guy.
- 2nd pick, #32: trade down for a 2011 mid-3rd (say it's #85) plus a 2012 1st.
- 3rd pick, #33: take a player, but do a small trade-down if possible (say to #37-38) to pick up a 2012 3rd.
- 4th pick would be Minny's mid-3rd rounder, around #75. I could see us moving up to the middle of round 2 (#48-55) by throwing in our own 3rd (#96)
- 5th pick would be 3rd round #85 from above

The net of all that would be:
2011/r1: pick #7
2011/r2: picks #37, 50
2011/r3: pick #85
2011: all our existing picks from rounds 4 on
2012: 1st and 3rd round picks

 

[IcyPatriot]

I don't see any player Belichick would trade picks to move up to get. some decent DL/DE players but they are all kind of short ... like 6'4". My guess is he stands pat or trades the Raider pick to 2012 and at least a 2nd this year and uses our pick and the Carolina pick.

 

[NewFeep]

I think you just may be on to something . . .

OK you really cracked me up with your "blue" player.... Of course I meant a "blue chip" DE/OLB but I love your pic! Well done, Sir!

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Although alittle disapointed the Raiders didn’t completely tank this year (many of us assumed it would be a top 10 pick) – have to look at the ‘sunny’ side.

With draft picks from the Vikings (playoff team last 2 years) , Pathers (last few years a mid-level .500 type team) and Raiders (usually bottom dweller) –
I was realistically expecting one of those 3 picks to be in bottom third (22-32) , one in middle third (12-21) and one in top third 1-11) of their respective rounds.

NEP are likely get ALL three picks in the top half of the respective rounds! That is a fantastic value. Not to mention the extra bonus of having the #33 pick and the whole night / next morning to shop it around to the highest bidder.

Once again, Bill is the Jedi trade master.

 

[Bostonian1962]

17th isnt all that bad


and 12th is quite good

but so long as we have pick number 32, i really dont care too much between 12-17th

Well said ALP. Ditto. The original post was great, because I was too lazy to figure it out myself.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I would be disappointed were we to trade the Raiders pick for a 2012 1st and a 2nd this year. No value. Similarly were he to trade down the valuable 33rd pick, the first pick on day 2, I'd expect to get more than a 2nd plus a 2012 3rd.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think you just may be on to something . . .

When did Woodhead change his number to 3?

 

[PlainOldEd]

Just did some quick math on strength of schedule, which is the first tiebreaker for draft order. The Raiders had a pretty easy schedule, so they "win" the tiebreaker against everyone except the Rams and Jags. Thus, here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case:
Raiders lose to KC
Redskins beat Giants
Vikings beat Lions
Titans beat Colts
Dolphins result irrelevant in this scenario.

Raiders finish 7-9 and pick 12th due to "winning" tiebreaker vs. Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings and Titans.

Worst Case:
Raiders beat KC
Pats beat Dolphins
Texans beat Jags.

Raiders finish 8-8 and pick 17th due to "losing" tiebreaker to Jags.

It looks to me like the most likely scenario is that the Raiders, Redskins, Lions, Dolphins and Titans lose.

So where would that put us? 14th?

The most important thing is to be picking 32nd, but I would like to see this one in the top 15.

 

[alvinnf]

If they are at 12, I could see them moving up, slightly. If they are at 18, I could see them moving down, slightly. Vague, just like spectulation at this point.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

OK so it's confirmed. Raiders pick will either be #16 or #17.

If the Jags win it will be #16, so just another reason to root for them today.

 

[NEPats1]

So the Chiefs were undefeated at home but will lose today vs Oakland...the game we needed...sigh

CMON PATS WEST!

 

[IcyPatriot]

OK so it's confirmed. Raiders pick will either be #16 or #17.

If the Jags win it will be #16, so just another reason to root for them today.

It will be good enough ... one of our 1st 3 picks will be giving us an extra in 2012 ... I would not be surprised if this is the one we trade away.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

It will be good enough ... one of our 1st 3 picks will be giving us an extra in 2012 ... I would not be surprised if this is the one we trade away.

I think it will be our own 1st (around 32nd), leaving us with #17 and #33.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Damn the Chiefs. Choking against the Raiders.