Raiders Pick from 9th-15th - Explained and who to root for

[arubin]

So currently, I see the Raiders having the 16th draft pick. Raiders best projection is 9th pick.

How to root for the rest of the season.

Between 9th-15th pick

Arizona or SF finishing with a 7-9 record look to pick the 16th pick - so that will get Raiders to 15th pick

Remaining Games
Arizona 4 9 at Carolina vs Dallas at SF
San Francisco 5 9 LOSS at Rams vs Zona


I can see Houston beating Tennessee and Denver and losing to Jax in week 17 finishing at 7-9 - so that will get Raiders to 14th pick

Seattle or Rams will in the division - so that will get Raiders to 13th pick

Most likely - 13th pick

To get better, we need a little help and get lucky and here is how:

Root for Washington to beat Dallas and Jax somehow and most likely will lose to Giants - will get to 12th pick (NEED TO WIN 2 OF 3 GAMES)

Root for Minnesota to beat either the Bears or Eagles and then also beat Detroit - will get to 11th pick

If Tennessee beats Houston, you will need Houston to beat Jax in week 17, then tenn would have to beat 1 of KC or Colts - will move pick to 10th pick - Very unlikely

Root for Cleveland to beat Bengals and then either Balt or Pitt - maybe Pitt if they have nothing to play for and they rest players in Week 17- that would get the pick to the 9th pick.

There are probably some tie breakers that I haven’t figured out, but this is fun to think about and my analysis on the rest of the season

I am assuming that Raiders beat Denver and lose to Colts and to KC. If somehow Tim Tebow comes in and beats the Raiders and the Raiders finish at 6-10, then the best possible scenario would be based on tie breakers between the 4th pick and the 10th pick with 7 6-10 teams. VERY UNLIKELY

Let me know thoughts!!

 

[jsull87]

love the breakdown and the effort. i am however resigned to the raiders going 1-2 and us having around about the 13/14th pick... still think we can do alot of damage with the pick

 

[tuckeverlasting]

i am pulling hard for my boy(this week anyway)tebow. we were looking so good until the super chokers showed up.

 

[serifyn]

The raiders are a solid run team and the broncos, colts and Kansas city (2 of which the raiders have already destroyed) have very poor rush defense.

peyton should be able to put up enough points to win (assuming he doesnt get intercepted 5 more times) but the broncos are so bad and have nothing to play for, they also get a better draft pick for losing so i think they lose this game convincingly.

Kansas city is a real toss up seeing as how they have already blown them out once already (at oakland) and they have actually blown out every team in this division thus far, i give the raiders a 60% chance to win this game.

right now, i think we would be happy if the raiders go 1-2 from this point forward, but realistically, i cant see them doing any worse than 2-1.

 

[arubin]

KC has great homefield advantage and their playoff hopes might be on the line. I see KC winning this game!

 

[D-Money]

I would love to trade the raiders pick to get in the top 7 and have a shot at getting Dareus or Quinn.

 

[Urgent]

Oakland pick is 14th, according to this, as of Week 14:

2011 NFL Draft, Draft Order - DraftCountdown.com

Note that St. Louis or Seattle, even with a 6-7 record, are currently winning their division.
Opponents win rate is also lower than Seattle, which gives Oakland the win in that tie-breaker, giving Oakland 14 and Seattle 15 as of now.

Since San Diego won, it keeps them a game ahead of Oakland as well, which helps mildly.

 

[arubin]

I am just upset that we won't be able to get Patrick Peterson. A combo of Bodden, Mccourty and Peterson would be so sick and we can add pass rushers with our other picks in the first and 2nd round.

 

[NewFeep]

the Raider pick is gonna be between 15 and 20..... which is fine as wine to me.

Call it 18, 32, 33 and 64 in the first two rounds. Not much to complain about there. Throw in Minn (75?) and #96 in the third round. BB will be salivating at all the trade offers.....

 

[arubin]

just for fun, what do you think it would take to get to the 3rd pick?

 

[NewFeep]

just for fun, what do you think it would take to get to the 3rd pick?

If you are asking me, more than BB would be willing to give up. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he traded down/back with the raiders spot.

 

[Off The Grid]

just for fun, what do you think it would take to get to the 3rd pick?

If the Patriots were stupid enough to chase #3 and its Salary Cap-Annihilating Implications, we can expect something very much like this:

Incoming

#3 ~ 2200 Points
#67 ~ 255 Points

*************

2455 Points


OutGoing

#12 ~ 1200 Points
#32 ~ 590 Points
#33 ~ 580 Points
#96 ~ 116 Points

**************

2486 Points

**************

You pretty much gotta expect to pay a Premium to move up.

I don't know about you, but that would be a NIGHTMARE, for me.

There's a reason why announcers are increasingly amazed with how many PlayMakers the Patriots have.

Depth...of Talent.

 

[arubin]

Gross - I think Patrick Peterson is going to be ridiculous - wish Oak sucked more

 

[Off The Grid]

Gross - I think Patrick Peterson is going to be ridiculous - wish Oak sucked more

You and me, both, Bro. Hell, I had them going Top 5. :bricks:

 

[BritPat]

The best bang for the buck in the Draft has always been in the 10-15 slot - last year Alualu, Graham and Thomas all went there and have had excellent rookie years; in 2009 Crabtree, Orakpo and Cushing went in the same area (two of them making the Pro-Bowl in their rookie years); in 2008 Mayo, McKelvin, Clady, Stewart were drafted one after another; and in 2007 you saw Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, Darelle Revis and Lawrence Timmons (two of which are the very best at their positions in the game) were drafted in that part of the Draft.

In that spot, two things happen - great players can drop if there's a run on certain positions; or you can draft someone who you really like a few positions ahead of where they might normally have gone without too much worry about paying them more than the position normally earns in terms of the Draft pay scale.

 

[NewFeep]

The best bang for the buck in the Draft has always been in the 10-15 slot - last year Alualu, Graham and Thomas all went there and have had excellent rookie years; in 2009 Crabtree, Orakpo and Cushing went in the same area (two of them making the Pro-Bowl in their rookie years); in 2008 Mayo, McKelvin, Clady, Stewart were drafted one after another; and in 2007 you saw Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, Darelle Revis and Lawrence Timmons (two of which are the very best at their positions in the game) were drafted in that part of the Draft.

In that spot, two things happen - great players can drop if there's a run on certain positions; or you can draft someone who you really like a few positions ahead of where they might normally have gone without too much worry about paying them more than the position normally earns in terms of the Draft pay scale.

Excellent post! If Oakland ends up between 15 and 18 I will be very, very come draft day!

 

[convertedpatsfan]

The best bang for the buck in the Draft has always been in the 10-15 slot - last year Alualu, Graham and Thomas all went there and have had excellent rookie years; in 2009 Crabtree, Orakpo and Cushing went in the same area (two of them making the Pro-Bowl in their rookie years); in 2008 Mayo, McKelvin, Clady, Stewart were drafted one after another; and in 2007 you saw Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, Darelle Revis and Lawrence Timmons (two of which are the very best at their positions in the game) were drafted in that part of the Draft.

In that spot, two things happen - great players can drop if there's a run on certain positions; or you can draft someone who you really like a few positions ahead of where they might normally have gone without too much worry about paying them more than the position normally earns in terms of the Draft pay scale.

This is a great point. Though I'd still love that pick to be in the top 10, as high as possible. We could always trade down and pick up some extras :singing:

 

[TruthSeeker]

The best bang for the buck in the Draft has always been in the 10-15 slot

There was an article published not too long ago which statistically showed that the second round is the best bang for the buck - right when the Patriots were in the midst of having 4 second round picks.

BB - always ahead of the curve.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

There was an article published not too long ago which statistically showed that the second round is the best bang for the buck - right when the Patriots were in the midst of having 4 second round picks.

BB - always ahead of the curve.

No doubt the second round is where the rue value is, but as far as first round value,it is in that 10-15 range, high ceiling but it only dents the cap instead of crushing it like a top three pick does.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Getting a pick in the teens will be fine. The Pats can find a stud there or even move up slightly if they find someone really awesome dropping. Hell the Pats got McCourty at 27 so their track record is pretty impressive in the 1st round regardless of where in the 1st they pick.