Question for those who paid attention so far this season (Brady related)

[Fencer]

It is, but he didn't have a problem with it pre-injury. Underthrowing receivers on deep routes has become a nasty habit for Brady since coming back. That would have been a surefire TD had Brady just put a little more on it considering that Moss had absolutely burned the CB and safety. Hopefully it was just one bad throw on a deep route and it's gotten more crisp since 2009.

Not really true. Moss came back for various passes in 2007.

Or, on that memorable flea-flicker Brady-Moss-Brady-Gaffney, the pass was almost defended as Gaffney stood and waited for it and the DB almost got there -- i.e., if it had been thrown further that would have been a good thing.

 

[Metaphors]

While we're on that pass--I guess I'm in the minority, but it looked to me like a play that developed a smidgen too slowly...thrown late, rather than short.

You may be in the minority but you would be correct. Brady needed to get the ball out quicker. Given the speeds and distances involved, it was probably less than a second late...so it is hard to quibble too much.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's true.

On the flip side, it's about time for Moss to get back to high-pointing some of these. Obviously, last season he could hardly get his arm above his shoulders because of injury, so that's understandable. But if he highpointed a certain 3rd down pass with 20 seconds left in a certain Super Bowl 42, we'd probably have gone 19-0. Brady underthrew that 60 yard bomb by about 3 inches, which, when you think of the margin for error, is rather acceptable. It's up to Moss to prevent the CB from getting to it.

What's the point of being 6'4 if you're going to let it fall into your hands just above your waist? Larry Fitzgerald finds a way to catch both of the aforementioned underthrown balls. I say this as a huge Moss fan. And granted I'm not a future HOF receiver, so who am I to 2nd guess Moss' technique. But I do remember Belichick himself in the Path to Perfection show on NFLN telling Moss to go up and get the ball whenever he can (said it after Moss' first TD catch vs. Giants in week 17).

He can certainly jump up and get a few more of them, but that pass wasn't one of them. All of his momentum was carrying him forward. To jump up for that pass would have been nearly impossible. That was a route that the QB needed to hit in stride. Hopefully they work out the kinks and can hit that in the regular season. Otherwise, Brady has been great so far.

 

[Kontradiction]

Not really true. Moss came back for various passes in 2007.

Or, on that memorable flea-flicker Brady-Moss-Brady-Gaffney, the pass was almost defended as Gaffney stood and waited for it and the DB almost got there -- i.e., if it had been thrown further that would have been a good thing.

Not every QB is going to be perfect on every deep throw. But Brady was much more efficient with his deep throws in 2007 than he was in 2009. I'm not sure how that could possibly be disputed.

 

[N.Eman]

You along with NFL net analyst J. Dukes said that about his deep throws. He's a little off on those. Could it be his finger is giving him trouble? I hope its just something minor and gets swept away and we get on track come Week 1.

 

[patsox23]

Brady's never been the best deep ball passer.

I agree that there has been NOTHING to worry about, Brady-wise -- especially any "jitters" -- but he does throw a good deep ball, and HAS been the best at the deep ball, LITERALLY. I think it was 2003 or 2004, but the guy had the best completion %age in the NFL -- better than Peyton and McNair -- for passes that traveled 30+ yards in the air.

I think what people forget is that it's very hard to complete those passes. Brady does a creditable job on those with the best of them.

 

[emoney_33]

It is, but he didn't have a problem with it pre-injury. Underthrowing receivers on deep routes has become a nasty habit for Brady since coming back. That would have been a surefire TD had Brady just put a little more on it considering that Moss had absolutely burned the CB and safety. Hopefully it was just one bad throw on a deep route and it's gotten more crisp since 2009.

FWIW,

2007 comp %:

1-10 yards: 69.4
11-20 yards: 72.5
21-30 yards: 68.5
31+ yards: 63.3

(8.8% drop off from short to long)

2009 comp %:

1-10 yards: 68.1
11-20 yards: 65.6
21-30 yards: 65.3
31+ yards: 62.4

(8.4% drop off from short to long)

 

[Brady2Welker]

You along with NFL net analyst J. Dukes said that about his deep throws. He's a little off on those. Could it be his finger is giving him trouble? I hope its just something minor and gets swept away and we get on track come Week 1.

Jamie Dukes is a ******, soo.... Brady has looked a bit off on his two deep passes this preseason, but well see how it translates into the regular season. I know from my amateur football experience that if I get a minor hit in the hand it makes it hard to put a certain touch on the ball to get it just where you Want. This could be happening for Brady on some minor hyper-extended or bruised fingers

 

[PatsBoy12]

Plus there was pass interference on that play anyway.

I think Brady's worst throw was the one he threw behind Wes that cost 20+ yards of YAC.

The one he threw that Wes almost died on was accurate but not very nice.

I actually agree with the OP. Brady's long ball seems to be too long or too short more often than not. We've not seen the deep ball accuracy that we're used to. I don't know if it has anything to do with jitters or what.

Also, I agree that the Welker throw was worse. Welker would probably have run all the way to St. Louis if that pass was on target.

 

[livinginthe past]

Confidence is a wonderful thing.

In 2007 Brady was regularly throwing jump balls for Moss in the knowledge that his guy would somehow, some way, come down with the ball.

Alot of them weren't great passes - alot of them hung up in the air and required Moss to go back into traffic to haul them in.

The incomplete deep bomb is a pretty decent weapon anyhow - just showing a willingness to throw it up there stops teams from cheating up on the short/intermediate Welker routes.

 

[BradyManny]

Also, I agree that the Welker throw was worse. Welker would probably have run all the way to St. Louis if that pass was on target.

Check my post re: that Welker throw. According to Wes, he didn't run the route right.

 

[Kontradiction]

FWIW,

2007 comp %:

1-10 yards: 69.4
11-20 yards: 72.5
21-30 yards: 68.5
31+ yards: 63.3

(8.8% drop off from short to long)

2009 comp %:

1-10 yards: 68.1
11-20 yards: 65.6
21-30 yards: 65.3
31+ yards: 62.4

(8.4% drop off from short to long)

That's a bit closer than I would have thought. What website did you get that from? And what of his completion percentage on 40+ yard passes from 2007 to 2009?

 

[emoney_33]

That's a bit closer than I would have thought. What website did you get that from? And what of his completion percentage on 40+ yard passes from 2007 to 2009?

They are from espn, haven't found any 40+ splits so far.

 

[Kontradiction]

They are from espn, haven't found any 40+ splits so far.

The 40+ yard splits would be the ones that I'm interested in. And I haven't found them either. But the 30+ yard passes are closer than I would have thought.

 

[Deus Irae]

1.) He's only thrown 2 deep balls in the exhibition games. That's nowhere near enough to judge.

2.) Reports from camp repeatedly noted completions on deep passes to Moss.

 

[ALP]

1.) He's only thrown 2 deep balls in the exhibition games. That's nowhere near enough to judge.

2.) Reports from camp repeatedly noted completions on deep passes to Moss.

yes, hence my points.....


as for the stats, the drop off % (ie 8.4 or 8.8 or whatever) are wrong subtracting any two numbers from the categories does need give the % drop from shrot to long passes

 

[Deus Irae]

yes, hence my points.....


as for the stats, the drop off % (ie 8.4 or 8.8 or whatever) are wrong subtracting any two numbers from the categories does need give the % drop from shrot to long passes

Again.... he's only thrown 2 deep passes in the exhibitions. There's no way anyone can give you an informed answer.

If you want an opinion, I'll offer you this:

Brady's putting more air under the ball than he used to. It's lessening his distance and allowing defenders to close gaps. That's probably not about jitters. That's probably about a change in his delivery. BUT.........

It's only based upon last year and 2 deep throws this exhibition season.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Again.... he's only thrown 2 deep passes in the exhibitions. There's no way anyone can give you an informed answer.

If you want an opinion, I'll offer you this:

Brady's putting more air under the ball than he used to. It's lessening his distance and allowing defenders to close gaps. That's probably not about jitters. That's probably about a change in his delivery. BUT.........

It's only based upon last year and 2 deep throws this exhibition season.

Since the Rams had the second worst defensive passer rating in the league last year, I expect that we'll have more data points after tonight.

opcorn:

 

[emoney_33]

as for the stats, the drop off % (ie 8.4 or 8.8 or whatever) are wrong subtracting any two numbers from the categories does need give the % drop from shrot to long passes

I cannot parse this statement, please clarify.

 

[patchick]

I cannot parse this statement, please clarify.

Perhaps he thought you were subtracting here?

1-10 yards: 69.4
...
31+ yards: 63.3

(8.8% drop off from short to long)

But your calculation wasn't subtraction (i.e. 69.4 - 63.3 = 8.8), it was percentage change of 69.4:

(69.4-63.3)/69.4 = .088

What were we talking about, anyway? :bricks: