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Question for investors.....

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Holy Diver, Oct 7, 2008.

  1. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Pro Bowl Player

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    #80 Jersey

    Paging all you stock gurus here!

    With the tanking of the market despite the 'bailout', its clear to someone who is not involved in finance to think about history. Specifically the Great Depression. I know some peeps are afraid to use the "D" word...but it seems pretty obvious that something wicked this way comes. And it rhymes with regression, starts with a d and is spelled D,E,P,R,E,S,S,I,O,N.....

    My Question:

    Historically speaking, what markets were making money while our nation was in the Great Depression? Are those markets easy to get into today?

    Any discussion on this topic is greatly appreciated.

    Thanks in advance!
     
  2. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Have you heard about lighter than air ships?
     
  3. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Pro Bowl Player

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    #80 Jersey

    I dumped a bunch of money in Zeppelins back on the early 90s.....never really paid off...Mostly because John Bonham is still dead.



    I'm wondering what markets or investments turned out profitable in the long term back then? I'm not an expert (as referenced by my Hindenberg stock)
     
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Unemployment during the Depression peaked at over 25%. People are freaking out today because it's at 6.2 and could rise to 7 or even 8. Now . . . 25% vs. 8%; you do the math.
     
  5. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Pro Bowl Player

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    #80 Jersey

    Those #s are inflated, and thos estatistics don't reflect the actual # of people out of work. We all know that.

    anyway...any help with my question?
     
  6. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    One place to start looking would be armaments toward the end of it (goes without saying.) Otherwise... google away and when you find out tell us. It would be incredibly interesting.
     
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    No, I have no idea. But I don't think it's very instructive as it's a false premise (how do you make money coming out of a Depression).
     
  8. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    we need a bond drive where people can invest feeling secure and we need better turn around on interest rates.

    it would be nice if we could transfer our 403b or 401k into this or buy bonds nontaxable.
     
  9. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Last edited: Oct 7, 2008
  10. Run DMC

    Run DMC In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    I posted in another thread that the FED is very clear in stating their policy for dealing with economic problems like we are having right now. Helicopter Ben will continue to dump tons of paper in an attempt to ward off deflation. You can expect to see hyperinflation in 2-3 years the likes of which, we've never seen before in the USA. Therefore, you want to own hard assets, ie, physical precious metals, real estate, etc. Avoid all paper products, currency, stocks, bonds, etc. Read my tagline by Thomas Jefferson, it ain't no joke.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2008
  11. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    ok let's say you own precious metals, real estate, etc.

    when full out panic happens, like it did with gas in georgia, people will be lined up at the ATM. the atm will be siphoned of all the money and that will collapse. others will immediately go to the store and raid the grocery store of food, and buying supplies, and stocking up on gas meanwhile charging it to credit cards.

    i know it seems a bit ridicuous but if everything slows down and things become scarce and people are in full panic. it doesn't even matter what reality is, it is peoples perception of society unraveling.

    so my question is at what point do people lose faith in money? at what point do people lose faith in saving money and just go on a shoppng spree because they feel like they are losing everything anyways? do people turn on government? what good is prescious metals going to do for you if it can't buy you food?

    what if milk goes to $20 a gallon? and everything goes up?
     
  12. Run DMC

    Run DMC In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    I have 2 friends who have witnessed currency devaluation in Brazil recently and France shortly after WWII. One day you have $300k in cash/stocks, the next day, a new currency is introduced and your old ones are now worthless, and you have nothing. It is that easy. I hope that does not happen here, but who knows? I know you can't spend gold, it is a "store" of value, something to hold you over until the storm passes. I would rec. keeping $1000 cash around as well, just in case.
     
  13. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Do you realize how easy it would be to go from 10% unemployment to 20%? Think about it...it's like a spiral spinning downward.

    Once a large sector of the population becomes unemployed, consumer spending dives downward off a cliff. Once spending dives, demand for goods dive with it which further increases unemployment. And around & round it goes until a balance is reached...a.k.a. a bottom. At that point, demand finally stabilizes and unemployment stops rising.

    In today's world economy, it can happen even faster than it did back in the depression. If we quickly hit 10% unemployment, it could get REALLY scary. If we hit 10% by Jan/Feb of '09, you can expect it to go much higher because it doesn't accelerate quickly then just stop.
     
  14. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Well when it happens we can talk about it. Meanwhile, 8% is what is being talked about as the worst case. The Depression also has crazy GDP regression numbers too. Anyone who thinks this is a Depression is way off the mark.
     
  15. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Well, the biggest difference is our banking system can't fail anymore. If you think about 1929....no one had 401k's. Everyone had their life saving in a SAVINGS account. So that means people immediately lost everything they had...all of it...GONE.

    Our GDP was 98% domestically generated. So if Americans lost all their wealth in one day, then the economy just stopped. There were a LOT more small businesses back then too. Without a banking system, many of these lost their ability to operate.

    It was like a nuclear bomb went off.

    Could a depression still happen today? Yes, but it would be a much slower sinking of the ship than 1929.

    BF...I would bet you a week's salary that 8% is way short...but then again, I could be out of work and unable to pay you!;)

    Remember, we hit 10% unemployment in the 70's recession and this is going to be worse than that. Anyone who doesn't or won't accept that has their eyes closed.
     

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