Question for anybody at the game/that has All-22.

[BradyFTW!]

Gaffney at all levels of the field was debunked already. He is a possession receiver and not a deep threat. He caught two passes on balls thrown over 30 yards last year (and only four more from 21-30 yards). In 2010, Lloyd caught 9 balls over 31 yards (only one last year, but he had no one throwing to him). He is not a threat at all levels at all. He would command no more over the top help than Lloyd. Gaffney has never been nor ever will be a deep threat.

Gaffney left camp with an injury. He was on the street and actively looking for a job when they brought back Branch and wanting to come back to the Pats. They could have easily took him over Branch if they wanted him.

As for Lloyd, don't make up busted coverage crap to make your point. Lloyd does beat his guys. Not always.

Nobody's claiming that Gaffney is a deep threat. He's an intermediate threat who can (could?) beat man coverage outside the numbers. Lloyd is pretty much the same, from what I've seen so far, which is a bit disappointing since I expected him to be more than that. Hopefully his production will pick up, but if not, then the Pats are going to continue seeing the same defenses that they saw last year on the rare occasions that teams had sufficient personnel to hold them in check.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is true. Lloyd has never been a guy that had gotten open based off of speed alone. He's used his athleticism and route running to do it. My question was more or less a general question to start the thread based on what I saw in the Jets game.

I hear you. I think it's pretty clear that, at this moment, this receiving corps is actually not as good as last year's. I'm not sure we can point to any position besides slot/WR1 (Welker) as even being as good as last year, to this point.

Welker 2011 = Welker 2012
Gronk 2011 > Gronk 2012 (health)
Hernandez 2011 > Hernandez 2012 (health)
Branch 2011 > Lloyd 2012
Johnson 2011 v. Edelman/Branch 2012 (?)

This team needs players to step up in order for us to see something more like we expected out of this group, and they still need a speed guy on the outside. Rob thinks deep speed is overrated, but I think history shows otherwise.

Also, just tangentially, they should have kept Gaffney and Carter around. They kept Shiancoe on the hook, for crying out loud, and he hasn't shown anything in a Patriots uniform.

 

[Kontradiction]

Gaffney caught two ball thrown from 31-40 yards and 0 over 40 yards. That is 2.9% of his receptions that were considered a bomb (if you consider a pass under 40 yards a bomb), not 12%. I don't know where you got your 12% number, but it is not correct. He caught 4 balls from 21-30 yards which is only 5.9% percent and not 22%. So even if you count all the balls he caught over 21 yards as bombs, it only accounts for 8.8% of his passes. But when is a pass for under 30 yards considered a bomb? That means 91.2% of Gaffney's receptions were either short or intermediary which is a classic definition of a possession WR.

You argument of Gaffney as a deep threat was debunked this summer when he was cut.

Jabar Gaffney Stats, Splits - Miami Dolphins - ESPN

His breakdown of receptions by yards passed is at the bottom.

It's from his splits on his Football Outsiders page...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Jabar Gaffney

As for the supposed argument that I'm making about Gaffney being a "deep threat", I'd like you to show me where I ever argued that. As a matter of fact, I challenge you to quote me on it.

When you're done looking for the quote and begin reading this post again, you'll see that I state that Gaffney's a guy who threatens all levels of the field and did so when he was with the Patriots. If you look at the splits that you even posted from ESPN.com, you'll see that he caught passes on the left, right, middle, left sidelines, and right sidelines, and that the numbers are pretty evenly distributed.

You may not buy the rumors, but that doesn't mean they weren't true. If the Pats truly wanted Gaffney, they would have made room for him on this team. They obviously didn't.

They obviously weren't true. Anybody with an attitude problem that serious wouldn't want to come back to the team unless they were completely insane. As for why the Pats didn't want Gaffney on the team, I can't be sure. Based on the season he had last year, he would seem to be a pretty clear cut upgrade over Branch, who had the bulk of the playing time this last Sunday, or Edelman. We saw what Edelman can (or should I say can't) do in the first couple of games of the season.

 

[Rob0729]

I hear you. I think it's pretty clear that, at this moment, this receiving corps is actually not as good as last year's. I'm not sure we can point to any position besides slot/WR1 (Welker) as even being as good as last year, to this point.

Welker 2011 = Welker 2012
Gronk 2011 > Gronk 2012 (health)
Hernandez 2011 > Hernandez 2012 (health)
Branch 2011 > Lloyd 2012
Johnson 2011 v. Edelman/Branch 2012 (?)

This team needs players to step up in order for us to see something more like we expected out of this group, and they still need a speed guy on the outside. Rob thinks deep speed is overrated, but I think history shows otherwise.

Also, just tangentially, they should have kept Gaffney and Carter around. They kept Shiancoe on the hook, for crying out loud, and he hasn't shown anything in a Patriots uniform.

I disagree with a number of things:

• I wouldn't say that Branch last year was better than Lloyd this year. Both were/are inconsistent. Lloyd seems to be far better when he is on. He is also more consistent.
• Branch/Edelman this year are better than Ochocinco last year. Not saying much considering Ocho only caught 15 balls for 276 yards and TD.
• The biggest problem with the offense this year compared to last is the decline of Gronk and Hernandez due to injuries. Both were nearly undefensable last year.
• I do believe today that deep threat is overrated. With the wide spread addition of the spread offense to the NFL level, it diminishes the need for a deep threat. And many of the top passing offenses in recent years have not had a legitimate deep threat like the Pats and Saints. Ten years ago, I would say different. But with the new rules, a dominant TE is just as potent to an offense as a dominant deep threat WR.

 

[Rob0729]

It's from his splits on his Football Outsiders page...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Jabar Gaffney

As for the supposed argument that I'm making about Gaffney being a "deep threat", I'd like you to show me where I ever argued that. As a matter of fact, I challenge you to quote me on it.

When you're done looking for the quote and begin reading this post again, you'll see that I state that Gaffney's a guy who threatens all levels of the field and did so when he was with the Patriots. If you look at the splits that you even posted from ESPN.com, you'll see that he caught passes on the left, right, middle, left sidelines, and right sidelines, and that the numbers are pretty evenly distributed.



They obviously weren't true. Anybody with an attitude problem that serious wouldn't want to come back to the team unless they were completely insane. As for why the Pats didn't want Gaffney on the team, I can't be sure. Based on the season he had last year, he would seem to be a pretty clear cut upgrade over Branch, who had the bulk of the playing time this last Sunday, or Edelman. We saw what Edelman can (or should I say can't) do in the first couple of games of the season.

You said 12% of his receptions were bombs. That is a deep threat. Even if it isn't true. You said Gaffney was a threat at every level of the field which would mean that he is a deep threat along with an intermediatary threat as well as a short threat. He is a threat at all levels of the field inside 20 yards of the line of scrimmage and not much of a factor beyond that. In other words, he is a possession receiver just like Lloyd although based on 2010, Lloyd has more deep threat capability.

Gaffney is a possession receiver who is very similar to Lloyd to the types of routes he runs and areas of the field where he is dangerous. He would not command any more over the top safety help than Lloyd.

Gaffney's attitude problem (as reported) was that he felt entitled that he felt he knew the offense and he has a great rapporte with Brady that he didn't have to work hard. That is an attitude problem, but not the standard diva WR attitude. If you want to call it an effort problem vs. an attitude problem, then so be it. Having a sense of entitlement wouldn't preclude him from coming back, but it certain could preclude the Pats from taking him back. In fact, if he had a sense of entitlement, it might make him want to come back more since he feels he deserves to be catching balls from Brady.

BTW, Football Outsiders is wrong considering the official stats stats that 91.8% of his receptions were for passes thrown 20 yards or less. I would go with the official stats that breaks them down over FO who gives percentages with no numbers to back them up. My guess is those percentages are targets at those levels and not receptions.

 

[E1Downey]

The obvious answer to this deep threat debate ia to trade two firsts, two seconds, a third, mankins, gronk, and a large sum of cash to San Fran for MOSS!!!!

-Sent from the device that is held in my hand-

 

[QuantumMechanic]

My guess is those percentages are targets at those levels and not receptions.

They are targets. "Short" is 5yd or less, "Mid" is 6-15, "Deep" is 16-25, and "Bomb" is 26+.

And the numbers are essentially official. FO takes them off the official NFL play-by-play entries.

 

[JackBauer]

Also, just tangentially, they should have kept Gaffney and Carter around. They kept Shiancoe on the hook, for crying out loud, and he hasn't shown anything in a Patriots uniform.

In fairness, it's not like Gaffney and Carter are doing anything, either.

 

[Kontradiction]

You said 12% of his receptions were bombs. That is a deep threat. Even if it isn't true. You said Gaffney was a threat at every level of the field which would mean that he is a deep threat along with an intermediatary threat as well as a short threat. He is a threat at all levels of the field inside 20 yards of the line of scrimmage and not much of a factor beyond that. In other words, he is a possession receiver just like Lloyd although based on 2010, Lloyd has more deep threat capability.

You're really splitting hairs here now in order to keep an argument that you know just failed going. But it's slow at work so I'll respond in kind...

1. I said that 12% of his receptions were bombs, but I also listed the splits from a highly respected website (both on this forum and in the football world) from all levels of the field. You're choosing to concentrate on the "bomb" part out of some misplaced insistance that I'm calling him a deep threat.

2. Your own splits from ESPN bare out that Gaffney threatened all levels of the field in 2011.

3. Why are you basing anything off of the 2010 season? That was two years ago.

Gaffney is a possession receiver who is very similar to Lloyd to the types of routes he runs and areas of the field where he is dangerous. He would not command any more over the top safety help than Lloyd.

No, but as you just admitted yourself he would command just as much attention to every other level of the field which would open things up for Lloyd and the TE's that much more. He would at least be an upgrade over Branch and Edelman at this point, based on those same stats and splits.

Gaffney's attitude problem (as reported) was that he felt entitled that he felt he knew the offense and he has a great rapporte with Brady that he didn't have to work hard. That is an attitude problem, but not the standard diva WR attitude. If you want to call it an effort problem vs. an attitude problem, then so be it. Having a sense of entitlement wouldn't preclude him from coming back, but it certain could preclude the Pats from taking him back. In fact, if he had a sense of entitlement, it might make him want to come back more since he feels he deserves to be catching balls from Brady.

Has this ever been reported as anything more than rumor? Based on the camp reports, that connection with Brady picked right up and he seemed to have a solid hold on the offense, being that he played in it before. I would find it hard to believe that this was the reason. What I CAN believe is that he got injured at the right time, Edelman put in a solid camp (like Sergio Brown did prior to 2011), and the competition was high which put Gaffney as the odd man out and Edelman in with Branch being on the shadow roster.

BTW, Football Outsiders is wrong considering the official stats stats that 91.8% of his receptions were for passes thrown 20 yards or less. I would go with the official stats that breaks them down over FO who gives percentages with no numbers to back them up.

And, even if we do, your own splits still bare out that Gaffney could threaten every level of the field. If you were to do it on the eye test alone, you could see it last year as well as the years in which he was a member of this squad.

 

[Rob0729]

You're really splitting hairs here now in order to keep an argument that you know just failed going. But it's slow at work so I'll respond in kind...

1. I said that 12% of his receptions were bombs, but I also listed the splits from a highly respected website (both on this forum and in the football world) from all levels of the field. You're choosing to concentrate on the "bomb" part out of some misplaced insistance that I'm calling him a deep threat.

2. Your own splits from ESPN bare out that Gaffney threatened all levels of the field in 2011.

3. Why are you basing anything off of the 2010 season? That was two years ago.



No, but as you just admitted yourself he would command just as much attention to every other level of the field which would open things up for Lloyd and the TE's that much more. He would at least be an upgrade over Branch and Edelman at this point, based on those same stats and splits.



Has this ever been reported as anything more than rumor? Based on the camp reports, that connection with Brady picked right up and he seemed to have a solid hold on the offense, being that he played in it before. I would find it hard to believe that this was the reason. What I CAN believe is that he got injured at the right time, Edelman put in a solid camp (like Sergio Brown did prior to 2011), and the competition was high which put Gaffney as the odd man out and Edelman in with Branch being on the shadow roster.



And, even if we do, your own splits still bare out that Gaffney could threaten every level of the field. If you were to do it on the eye test alone, you could see it last year as well as the years in which he was a member of this squad.

We are just going around in circles on this topic. No more reason to go further so I will say the following and be done:

I have seen nothing this year to show that Gaffney would be a significant upgrade over Lloyd or even Branch/Edelman at this point. He would command no more over the top help than Lloyd is commanding now. He isn't an option. If the Pats thought he could be a significant contributor, he would be on the team now even if they had to carry him on the inactive list for several weeks.

As of right now, Gaffney is either not good enough or healthy enough to make the active 46 man roster in Miami. If he is still not healthy enough, I don't know how he would have made enough of difference here. If he is not good enough to make the Dolphins' active roster, I don't know if he would be good enough here.

I was excited about him when the Pats picked him up. But obviously after they dumped him although they made a several year commitment to him, it seems pretty clear that the Pats dumped him for more reason than to save a roster spot until he got healthy.

Gaffney is gone. Time to move on.

 

[Kontradiction]

We are just going around in circles on this topic. No more reason to go further so I will say the following and be done:

I have seen nothing this year to show that Gaffney would be a significant upgrade over Lloyd or even Branch/Edelman at this point. He would command no more over the top help than Lloyd is commanding now. He isn't an option. If the Pats thought he could be a significant contributor, he would be on the team now even if they had to carry him on the inactive list for several weeks.

As of right now, Gaffney is either not good enough or healthy enough to make the active 46 man roster in Miami. If he is still not healthy enough, I don't know how he would have made enough of difference here. If he is not good enough to make the Dolphins' active roster, I don't know if he would be good enough here.

I was excited about him when the Pats picked him up. But obviously after they dumped him although they made a several year commitment to him, it seems pretty clear that the Pats dumped him for more reason than to save a roster spot until he got healthy.

Gaffney is gone. Time to move on.

From the sounds of the reports, it appears as if Gaffney is still trying to learn the offense get on the same page with Tannehill. I wouldn't be surprised if they activated him some time soon.

That being said, though, I'd still like to get the information requested in the original thread premise. Anybody have a chance to review the All-22 in full yet?

 

[Deus Irae]

I disagree with a number of things:

I wouldn't say that Branch last year was better than Lloyd this year. Both were/are inconsistent. Lloyd seems to be far better when he is on. He is also more consistent.

Through 7 games:

Lloyd - 35 catches for 407 yards
Branch - 30 catches for 405 yards, even with the 0 game against Buffalo, and no forcing passes

I'd call this advantage: Branch, and by a lot.

Branch/Edelman this year are better than Ochocinco last year. Not saying much considering Ocho only caught 15 balls for 276 yards and TD.

I'd call it pretty debatable. Through 7 games last year, Johnson had 9 catches for 136 yards. Through 7 games this year, Edelman/Branch are 17 for 142. If we toss in Underwood's 3 for 30 and Slater's 1 for 46, we're now comparing

13 for 212
17 for 142

The biggest problem with the offense this year compared to last is the decline of Gronk and Hernandez due to injuries. Both were nearly undefensable last year.

The biggest problem this year is open to debate. Offensive line issues and the move away from Welker have been just as big as the TE injuries, IMO.

I do believe today that deep threat is overrated. With the wide spread addition of the spread offense to the NFL level, it diminishes the need for a deep threat. And many of the top passing offenses in recent years have not had a legitimate deep threat like the Pats and Saints. Ten years ago, I would say different. But with the new rules, a dominant TE is just as potent to an offense as a dominant deep threat WR.

Colston has 16 40+ yard plays in 7 years, and 93 of 20+. Devery Henderson has 240 career passes, 67 of which have been for 20+ and 27 of which have been for 40+. Meachem, now in San Diego, has 153 career receptions, 37 of which went for 20+ and 15 of which went for 40+. Far from not having deep threats, the Saints had multiple players who could fill that role.

 

[Deus Irae]

In fairness, it's not like Gaffney and Carter are doing anything, either.

Both were injured. Carter's now playing his way back into things, and Gaffney has been delayed by also having to learn the Dolphins system, or he could already have been playing. Why carry a 4th TE when the WR and DE were bigger needs?