PSA: Apparently, the Pats also won the March SB

[Sicilian]

Baseball is the only sport where a mathematical analysis is even remotely possible, and even there it never paints a complete picture. I'll never accept a mathematically analysis of football, even if it paints my favorite team in a nicer light.

One thing I will say that I've been thinking about recently, is the idea that we won free agency last year (and because of it won the Super Bowl). I think that's true to a degree: Getting Revis alone is enough to have a successful free agency, then you add Browner and LaFell and things worked out phenomenally. But I don't think our APPROACH last year was any different than it is so far this year. We got Revis on a steal, and Browner and LaFell on bargain contracts. We didn't break the bank to bring in big names last year, we were just supremely successful with the approach we always use. When one of your team philosophies is not to overpay, your opportunities for success year to year in free agency are going to vary.

 

[Ross12]

I linked this same page in the Bradley Fletcher thread to highlight that he was rated as the most likely CB to outperform his contract, and McClaim was third most likely. It should be noted that mostly all the CBs were rated as likely to be overpaid though.

It's definitely an interesting read, but as @shmessy points out, leaving our QBs and RBs paints an incomplete picture. The Eagles, for instance, signed two high end RBs and a QB and that's not considered whatsoever.

 

[Sfpat]

Unfortunately, not signing McCourty earlier for cheaper and not having a Revis backup plan -- to allow them to keep Browner -- who was on a team-friendly contract was probably the wrong thing.

You can't possibly believe that BB failed to have a Revis backup plan ready. That would be a rookie (i.e. Jets, Lophins, etc) mistake and BB is not a rookie. BB plays chess while others are playing checkers, meaning he's already three steps ahead and has thought of the possible combinations and permutations. My guess is the Revis backup plan was developed last year when or before Revis signed.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Baseball is the only sport where a mathematical analysis is even remotely possible, and even there it never paints a complete picture. I'll never accept a mathematically analysis of football, even if it paints my favorite team in a nicer light.

One thing I will say that I've been thinking about recently, is the idea that we won free agency last year (and because of it won the Super Bowl). I think that's true to a degree: Getting Revis alone is enough to have a successful free agency, then you add Browner and LaFell and things worked out phenomenally. But I don't think our APPROACH last year was any different than it is so far this year. We got Revis on a steal, and Browner and LaFell on bargain contracts. We didn't break the bank to bring in big names last year, we were just supremely successful with the approach we always use. When one of your team philosophies is not to overpay, your opportunities for success year to year in free agency are going to vary.

I agree with your overall point, but two things I think are worth disagreeing on.

Baseball is the only sport where a mathematical analysis is even remotely possible YET. Basketball is improving, they're using cameras to track every single player, and it's improved significantly. Baseball is much more advanced now than it was 20 years ago. Just because something isn't reliable today doesn't mean it won't be reliable some day.

Which takes us to the second, which is that you'd never accept a mathematical analysis of football. It may not be there today, but it doesn't mean it will never happen. We already see some of it, from analysis on 4th down and risk/reward, and other game theory concepts. It isn't quite at the individual player level yet, at least not at some of the more difficult positions to track. But we're getting better at measuring the impact of certain positions.

 

[TomPatriot]

I agree with your overall point, but two things I think are worth disagreeing on.

Baseball is the only sport where a mathematical analysis is even remotely possible YET. Basketball is improving, they're using cameras to track every single player, and it's improved significantly. Baseball is much more advanced now than it was 20 years ago. Just because something isn't reliable today doesn't mean it won't be reliable some day.

Which takes us to the second, which is that you'd never accept a mathematical analysis of football. It may not be there today, but it doesn't mean it will never happen. We already see some of it, from analysis on 4th down and risk/reward, and other game theory concepts. It isn't quite at the individual player level yet, at least not at some of the more difficult positions to track. But we're getting better at measuring the impact of certain positions.

Might not be necessary. I suspect every play at every position on every team in every game is already graded. Human error is contained in the grading, but minimized if the scout graders are familiar with the scouting team's system.

 

[Fencer]

with help over the top from Sergio Brown.

Who according to the article is making $2.333 million/year now.