Projecting the Pats' talent next season

[Jangles]

Regardless, I'm not sure how the strength or weakness of a division makes a team's WR corp terrible.

That wasn't my point

it was just an example to show that regardless of the ability of 1 player/team. The collective group can be looked down on because of how bad their worst player/team is

look at it on a 1-10 rating scale

Moss - 9

Edelman - 7. 5

Stanback, Aiken, others (-49378493482394749374937549347)

Poor average

 

[Sicilian]

That wasn't my point

it was just an example to show that regardless of the ability of 1 player/team. The collective group can be looked down on because of how bad their worst player/team is

look at it on a 1-10 rating scale

Moss - 9

Edelman - 7. 5

Stanback, Aiken, others (-49378493482394749374937549347)

Poor average

A flawed analogy, because when judging a division strength by record, all teams are weighted evenly. When judging the strength of a unit on a team, the players are weighted with diminishing value. Moss and Edelman will likely be in there on every snap (barring a few goal line formations), so should be weighted higher than the #3 who will be there for 50-60%, or the #4 who will only play 30-40%, etc (numbers aren't real, but the point remains).

 

[Deus Irae]

A flawed analogy, because when judging a division strength by record, all teams are weighted evenly. When judging the strength of a unit on a team, the players are weighted with diminishing value. Moss and Edelman will likely be in there on every snap (barring a few goal line formations), so should be weighted higher than the #3 who will be there for 50-60%, or the #4 who will only play 30-40%, etc (numbers aren't real, but the point remains).

I don't agree that it's a flawed analogy at all. In fact, last season demonstrated just how apt an analogy it is. As great at Welker and Moss are together, not having and NFL quality WR3 absolutely killed the offense at crucial times. Conversely, we saw just how much of a positive impact having an above average WR3 was able to make for the same basic offense in 2007 and 2008.

Now, I think a valid question is whether the analogy would hold if the WR3 was just at JAG level, because I don't think Gaffney was JAG in that offense and Aiken will probably go to his grave wishing he could have achieved even JAG status.

 

[Jangles]

A flawed analogy, because when judging a division strength by record, all teams are weighted evenly. When judging the strength of a unit on a team, the players are weighted with diminishing value. Moss and Edelman will likely be in there on every snap (barring a few goal line formations), so should be weighted higher than the #3 who will be there for 50-60%, or the #4 who will only play 30-40%, etc (numbers aren't real, but the point remains).

it was quick and off the top of my head. I didn't use it to begin some debate on my analogy.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Before the injuries start, I make the Pats' talent situation something like this:

QB -- GOAT or close to it, in or close to his prime
RB -- near the top of the league in shotgun, solid but below average otherwise. Nets out to average+
Receivers -- Aging near-GOAT, a bunch of JAGs, a Pro Bowler who should be partway back from injury by the postseason
Blockers -- Pro Bowler in his prime, a few aging borderline Pro Bowlers, and a great-looking second-year player to replace the weak link

K -- Pro Bowler
P -- below average
LS -- meh

DL (running downs) -- Pro Bowler, another above-average guy, a weak link, and a decent backup or two
DL (passing downs) -- below average (even if you say that's TBC's main job)
LB -- one above-average guy (Mayo) and a bunch of weak links
DBs -- above average, although that assumes guys grow a lot year over year

That doesn't live up to the Pats, Colts, or Chargers of a few years ago, but I'm not sure who projects a lot better this season.

I see 4 major holes in our roster and all are fixable to a certain extent via the draft. (RDE, X receiver, TE and OLB)

I don't think that an offense with Brady at QB, provided he is healthy, is ever in that bad a shape. Yes this team desperately needs a qualified OC and yes Brady needs weapons at WR and TE and yes maybe the team could use upgrades at RB, C and OT, but the bottom line is this offense is one of the best in the league and could be even better if the mysterious second half scoring crash and burns are avoided. (I blame our horrible acting OC.)

On ST, we have a pro bowl kicker and a future pro bowl LS, decent punt and kick coverage units. We need a punter, and a kick returner but neither are hard to find or expensive per se.

The defense is the weak unit of the team and currently in transition.

The D Line is missing a stud at RDE. Several options for BB to go to resolve this situation. He can draft an Odrick and hope he develops in a year or two. Or my suggestion A is to trade up for Suh and plug him into RDE from day one. He is the best player in the draft and will become (injuries permitting) a multi year pro bowler. My suggestion B is to draft Mt. Cody and slide Wilfork over to RDE. The run defense is instantly super solid and we can substitute Pryor and Wright in obvious passing situations.

The secondary is young and we are enduring growing pains, but the pieces and depth are in house, we just need the coaching staff to "coach them up".

The black hole of the defense however is the almost completely barren waste land of mostly untalented retreads and UDFA's that call themselves Patriots 3-4 LBers. How BB could let this group, which is the heart and soul of a defense, detrioate to this point is almost criminal. And I say that because he has rarely invested any draft picks in building depth at this key level of the defense.I like McClain or Eaddes on the inside and BB has a choice of a good half dozen prospects for the outside.

Last year he passed on several solid 3-4 LBer types in order to stock pile talent and depth in the secondary and D Line. This year however, he once again has several opportunities to get quality LBers that could develop into playmakers for our defense. History says he will pass on them, however roster talent says he can't if he still wants to continue coaching a playoff calibre team.

 

[Sicilian]

I don't agree that it's a flawed analogy at all. In fact, last season demonstrated just how apt an analogy it is. As great at Welker and Moss are together, not having and NFL quality WR3 absolutely killed the offense at crucial times. Conversely, we saw just how much of a positive impact having an above average WR3 was able to make for the same basic offense in 2007 and 2008.

Now, I think a valid question is whether the analogy would hold if the WR3 was just at JAG level, because I don't think Gaffney was JAG in that offense and Aiken will probably go to his grave wishing he could have achieved even JAG status.

Well certainly having a good #3 is a benefit to an offense, and one you would notice. But my point was the further down the depth chart you go, the easier it is to plug in a player without greatly impacting your production. In other words, having a great WR (Moss) and a solid WR (it could be argued we haven't seen enough of Edelman to call him solid yet, but still), puts you in decent shape, because your options for finding a good #3 are a LOT more varied than if you had to find a good # 1 or # 2.

it was quick and off the top of my head. I didn't use it to begin some debate on my analogy.

I didn't actually mean it to either, but the idea you were portraying in the analogy was what I was arguing. By the logic you were implying, all WR's had an equal role in an offensive gameplan, thus all should weighted the same when looking at overall unit strength. I disagreed with that sentiment.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well certainly having a good #3 is a benefit to an offense, and one you would notice. But my point was the further down the depth chart you go, the easier it is to plug in a player without greatly impacting your production. In other words, having a great WR (Moss) and a solid WR (it could be argued we haven't seen enough of Edelman to call him solid yet, but still), puts you in decent shape, because your options for finding a good #3 are a LOT more varied than if you had to find a good # 1 or # 2.

I understand your point. I simply think that 2007-2009 has shown your assertion to be wrong, at least with regard to the team's WR3.

 

[Metaphors]

Everyone needs to stop picking on poor Aiken. Dude was signed to be a special team guy (and became a team captain) and due to circumstances that he had nothing to do with, he was thrown into the regular WR rotation. It is like that pilot landing the plane in the Hudson and having the passengers complain about being late getting to their destinations.

I don't consider Aiken to be the #3 WR on this team. Belichick doesn't. Aiken doesn't. Aiken's mom doesn't. I'm not sure why people keep evaluating the Pats WR depth chart with Aiken at #3. Trust me...he won't be #3 in September.

Aren't there enough complaints about Belichick not signing Boldin. Or Tate being a wasted draft pick. Or Welker having his leg amputated. Or Moss being whatever Moss is accused of being lately. Just let Aiken be a ST guy who happens to fit into the WR depth chart at #5/#6. And the world will go right on a-spinnin'.

 

[Deus Irae]

Everyone needs to stop picking on poor Aiken. Dude was signed to be a special team guy (and became a team captain) and due to circumstances that he had nothing to do with, he was thrown into the regular WR rotation. It is like that pilot landing the plane in the Hudson and having the passengers complain about being late getting to their destinations.

I don't consider Aiken to be the #3 WR on this team. Belichick doesn't. Aiken doesn't. Aiken's mom doesn't. I'm not sure why people keep evaluating the Pats WR depth chart with Aiken at #3. Trust me...he won't be #3 in September.

Aiken was the team's WR3 for almost all of 2009. That may not have been his fault, but that was the reality.

As of right now, Aiken is the team's WR3 for 2010, unless you think a player that was out of the game last year is going to beat him out, or unless you're relying upon a player who's never caught an NFL pass and is coming off ACL injury. It's not about Aiken, it's about the position.

 

[Jangles]

In case you missed it, Aiken was the team's WR3 for almost all of 2009.

I wish I'd missed it

my forehead wouldn't be caved in from smashing my face on the wall

 

[jmt57]

In case you missed it, Aiken was the team's WR3 for almost all of 2009.

True, Aiken did become WR3, by default.

The plan was for Galloway to be WR3 and Lewis WR4.

Aiken was not intended to be WR3 in 2009 although unfortunately it did work out that way; he was supposed to be a ST player and WR6.

I would think the plan for 2010 is for Aiken to go back to being a ST player and WR6; I can't fathom the Pats planning on him being their WR3 again.

 

[Deus Irae]

True, Aiken did become WR3, by default.

The plan was for Galloway to be WR3 and Lewis WR4.

Aiken was not intended to be WR3 in 2009 although unfortunately it did work out that way; he was supposed to be a ST player and WR6.

I would think the plan for 2010 is for Aiken to go back to being a ST player and WR6; I can't fathom the Pats planning on him being their WR3 again.

Could you fathom the team trading Seymour the week before the start of the season and not bringing in any viable replacement? Could you fathom the team deciding not to bring in anyone to compete for the WR3 job after cutting Galloway?

Like you, I expect someone other than Aiken to be the team's WR3 this upcoming season. However, moves that made no sense were in vogue for this team last season.

 

[jmt57]

Could you fathom the team trading Seymour the week before the start of the season and not bringing in any viable replacement? Could you fathom the team deciding not to bring in anyone to compete for the WR3 job after cutting Galloway?

Like you, I expect someone other than Aiken to be the team's WR3 this upcoming season. However, moves that made no sense were in vogue for this team last season.

Very true. Same could be said about linebackers in both free agency and the draft last year.

Perhaps I should re-word from "can't fathom" to "God, I hope and pray they don't" . . .

 

[Metaphors]

Aiken was the team's WR3 for almost all of 2009. That may not have been his fault, but that was the reality.

Whatever. A #5 receiver (destined for #6 when Tate became active) is forced into action and holds up reasonably well CONSIDERING HE IS A SPECIAL TEAMS GUY AND NOT A REGULAR RECEIVER (I put this in caps because you conveniently forget all context when declaring "facts" and "reality"). That makes him a WR3 WHEN EVERYONE ON THE DEPTH CHART AHEAD OF HIM ISN'T AVAILABLE EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST TWO. Like Troy was the nickel DB for the Pats. Not because he actually was a nickel DB...just because he was the next guy in line.

As of right now, Aiken is the team's WR3 for 2010, unless you think a player that was out of the game last year is going to beat him out, or unless you're relying upon a player who's never caught an NFL pass and is coming off ACL injury. It's not about Aiken, it's about the position.

Then stop talking about Aiken. Tate is ahead of Aiken on the depth chart. Know why? Because he is a WR on the depth chart. Any receivers drafted by the Pats in April will be ahead of Aiken on the depth chart. Know why? Because they will be WRs on the depth chart. Patten is ahead of Aiken right now.

So Aiken doesn't need to be beaten out of the 3rd WR spot because he isn't the 3rd WR. He is the ST captain that sits at the end of the WR depth chart just like Arrington sits at the back of the CBs. With Welker out, Tate is the 3rd WR "right now" and Patten is #4 (or reverse those 2 if you like). That will change next month. It will likely change by September. It will likely change again in November. If you are going to continue bashing the Pats for a mythical depth chart in your mind, please put Slater there for a while and mix it up a bit.

 

[Deus Irae]

Whatever. A #5 receiver (destined for #6 when Tate became active) is forced into action and holds up reasonably well CONSIDERING HE IS A SPECIAL TEAMS GUY AND NOT A REGULAR RECEIVER (I put this in caps because you conveniently forget all context when declaring "facts" and "reality"). That makes him a WR3 WHEN EVERYONE ON THE DEPTH CHART AHEAD OF HIM ISN'T AVAILABLE EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST TWO. Like Troy was the nickel DB for the Pats. Not because he actually was a nickel DB...just because he was the next guy in line.

Your point is irrelevant. Aiken was the team's WR3. Also, your all caps nonsense is just that. I understand the context at least as well as you do. So, to take your lead.....

SAM AIKEN WAS THE PATRIOTS' WR3 LAST SEASON, AND HE SUCKED AT THE JOB.

Then stop talking about Aiken. Tate is ahead of Aiken on the depth chart. Know why? Because he is a WR on the depth chart. Any receivers drafted by the Pats in April will be ahead of Aiken on the depth chart. Know why? Because they will be WRs on the depth chart. Patten is ahead of Aiken right now.

So Aiken doesn't need to be beaten out of the 3rd WR spot because he isn't the 3rd WR. He is the ST captain that sits at the end of the WR depth chart just like Arrington sits at the back of the CBs. With Welker out, Tate is the 3rd WR "right now" and Patten is #4 (or reverse those 2 if you like). That will change next month. It will likely change by September. It will likely change again in November. If you are going to continue bashing the Pats for a mythical depth chart in your mind, please put Slater there for a while and mix it up a bit.

When did Belichick share his depth chart with you? Last season, Aiken was WR3, not Tate. Last season, Patten was at home while Aiken was the team's WR3. "Right now", and until we hear differently, Aiken is the team's WR3.

I don't blame Aiken for sucking as a wide receiver, but he sucked as a wide receiver. It's not Aiken's fault that Belichick screwed the pooch. It is Aiken's failing, however, that he wasn't up to the task given to him.

If you're going to keep ballwashing the Patriots, quit complaining about people you perceive are bashing Aiken. The WR3 spot was brutal last year. It was either the 'fault' of the Patriots or Aiken. You can't ballwash both of them on the subject, although you seem to be trying your level best to do so.

 

[muzz]

It's not Aikens fault that he sux, it's BILLS fault that he expected him to be good during games when he sucked in practice.

The WR3 position was BILLS fault, noone else need step up and take the sword for that 1.
Woefully undermanned at WR, just like they are NOW.

 

[Metaphors]

Your point is irrelevant. Aiken was the team's WR3. Also, your all caps nonsense is just that. I understand the context at least as well as you do. So, to take your lead.....

SAM AIKEN WAS THE PATRIOTS' WR3 LAST SEASON, AND HE SUCKED AT THE JOB.

The "all caps nonsense" was to counter your ability to cherry-pick posts. Does this sounds familiar?

"Aiken did a fine job considering he is a ST guy that was forced into action."

"If you think Aiken did a fine job, you are crazy. He sucks."

You say you understand the context of the situation but I don't even think you understand what "context" means. Your repeated point (in caps) is completely lacking context. It equates the situation last year to Belichick building a team with Aiken 3rd on the depth chart.

When did Belichick share his depth chart with you? Last season, Aiken was WR3, not Tate. Last season, Patten was at home while Aiken was the team's WR3. "Right now", and until we hear differently, Aiken is the team's WR3.

First you question how I could possibly know the depth chart and then you definitively state that you know the depth chart. Is that lost on you?

So please explain to us what a WR3 is in your world. It doesn't mean he was the 3rd best WR since Moss, Welker and Edelman were clearly better. It doesn't mean he got the 3rd most starts or receptions since Edelman did that...even though Edelman was hurt for several games. After the bye, Tate was running in the spread right along with Aiken (after just coming off PUP) before he got hurt. You can't mean that Aiken was intended to be the WR3 since that clearly was Galloway until week 4. Yet you can definitively say that Aiken being the 3rd WR in 2009 is an absolute truth and beyond dispute. Interesting.

If you're going to keep ballwashing the Patriots, quit complaining about people you perceive are bashing Aiken. The WR3 spot was brutal last year. It was either the 'fault' of the Patriots or Aiken. You can't ballwash both of them on the subject, although you seem to be trying your level best to do so.

Go ahead and bash Aiken all you want. He isn't a very good receiver. Bash Belichick for thinking Galloway was going to work at WR3. Or for drafting Tate. Or for not picking up a replacement (like???) when Galloway crapped the bed. But if you are going to call Aiken the 3rd WR last year, this year or any year, expect to get called on it.

 

[Fencer]

Ty Warren is not a JAG.

I didn't say he was.

But I recently thought about whether there's much of a difference between "borderline Pro Bowler" and "clearly above average", and there isn't.

Out of 16 guys at a position in a conference, how many are "clearly above average" or better? 5 or 6? How many are better than "borderline Pro Bowler"? 2 or so? Where doees that leave the others?

 

[fgssand]

tate is nothing yet

Why wouldn't you say the same thing about Mckensie??

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The defense I think will be improved even if left as it is. Mayo should be better at full strength and the youngsters all have a year under their belt. Plus BB is going to focus more on defense. I still would like to see a DE and OLB added through draft.

On offense we clearly have a need at WR, 2 with Welker's season in doubt. I'd like to see one vet pickup such as Reed/TO/Coles and another wideout drafted. If Tate is healthy that at least helps us at WR4 and KR, and could be the #3 option we're looking for too. TE is a need but we haven't got great production from the TE in recent years anyways, not even in the SB years. I wouldn't mind another cheap pickup or day 2/3 pick.

This team wasn't all too far away from being a 14-2 team last year. That's with Brady coming off a major injury and a completely rebuilt defense. I expect both to improve this season, but WR really needs to be addressed.