Projecting the Pats' talent next season

[RobertWeathers]

Yeah, the Pats haven't won less than 10 games since 2002 and less than 9 games since 2000. It is hard to believe they will win less than 8 games until they actually go out and win less than 8 games.

Agreed. Gotta wait until the early Sept to make predictions on W/L.

At least on the surface, their schedule does seem tougher than past years...

 

[Jangles]

The way I see it, the current group is "adequate". Not a top unit in the league, but enough that with Tom Brady and a healthy o-line, we're still a potential top 5 offense in this league.

The problem is we have ZERO wiggle room. Moss gets nagging injuries again, or Edelman gets hurt, we're screwed. There's no depth.

This group would be adequate if we had Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson in the backfield

Without any options at RB we aren't going to do much damage with these WRs

 

[Sicilian]

This group would be adequate if we had Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson in the backfield

Without any options at RB we aren't going to do much damage with these WRs

I don't value the feature back as highly in today's NFL. I think with a solid rotation of backs (including a guy like faulk who has 3rd down versatility), our running game is fine.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Interesting covo about the RBs.

In 2007, having a good set of adequate runners was fine b/c the passing offense was beyond outstanding. Quite frankly, you could make the argument that having a just-ok running game cost them the SB but thats beside the point.

However, if the team doesn't upgrade the WR core, the set of RBs on the roster will not be adequate enough to keep the defense honest IMO.

 

[Jangles]

Interesting covo about the RBs.

In 2007, having a good set of adequate runners was fine b/c the passing offense was beyond outstanding. Quite frankly, you could make the argument that having a just-ok running game cost them the SB but thats beside the point.

However, if the team doesn't upgrade the WR core, the set of RBs on the roster will not be adequate enough to keep the defense honest IMO.

Exactly

the defensive plan will be take away moss, make edelman beat us, kill Tom Brady

Nobody else to worry about

 

[Rob0729]

Agreed. Gotta wait until the early Sept to make predictions on W/L.

At least on the surface, their schedule does seem tougher than past years...

Strength of schedule prior to the season is such BS though. The Pats' schedule last year was one of the toughest in the league before the season started, but not nearly as much by the end of the season. The Pats faced many teams that were playoff caliber teams that went backwards from 2008 to 2009 including Miami, Carolina, Tennessee, and Atlanta. Those four teams alone went from a combined 47-17 record in 2008 to a combined record of 32-32 in 2009. That is five games against elite talent from 2008 who were middle of the pack when the Pats actually played them in 2009.

 

[DW Toys]

tate is nothing yet

Agreed. I would not be surprised to see him not make it out of Camp if we pick up a reasonable FA or Draft a quality WR. It would be expected he would stick as an "F.O. ego-#3 keeper" but this was the same chortle head who smoked dope before his NFL medical. How much of a brain surgeon can he be? You had a 14 year pro who could not get what the Pats wanted as far as the new famed buzz word expression "route tree", what makes anyone think this kid will get it?
He was attractive because of his return prowess and he was mediocre to fair as a WR.
DW Toys

 

[RobertWeathers]

Strength of schedule prior to the season is such BS though. The Pats' schedule last year was one of the toughest in the league before the season started, but not nearly as much by the end of the season. The Pats faced many teams that were playoff caliber teams that went backwards from 2008 to 2009 including Miami, Carolina, Tennessee, and Atlanta. Those four teams alone went from a combined 47-17 record in 2008 to a combined record of 32-32 in 2009. That is five games against elite talent from 2008 who were middle of the pack when the Pats actually played them in 2009.

Yep. I agree. Initially, it does look tough though..

Home
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts

Away
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions

 

[Jangles]

Yep. I agree. Initially, it does look tough though..

Home
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts

Away
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions

The home games look to be the toughest of the two

that's a small blessing

 

[RobertWeathers]

Exactly

the defensive plan will be take away moss, make edelman beat us, kill Tom Brady

Nobody else to worry about

I'd say upgrade the line too but Vollmer, Neal, Koppen, Mankins and Light isn't too shabby. They lose some power with Koppen and Light in the running game but overall is a decent unit.

 

[Jangles]

I'd say upgrade the line too but Vollmer, Neal, Koppen, Mankins and Light isn't too shabby. They lose some power with Koppen and Light in the running game but overall is a decent unit.

It isn't a bad line, but their flaws will be greatly exposed if Brady is forced to hold onto the ball or force his throws from all the pressure.

 

[Rob0729]

Yep. I agree. Initially, it does look tough though..

Home
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts

Away
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions

You can look at several teams that are playoff caliber teams and start to look at question marks though:

- In Minnesotta, will Favre return and if he does, can he repeat his performance from last year.
- What will Roethlisberger's legal issues do to him and his team?
- Was the Bengals' decline at the end of last season and into the playoffs the start of their decline and they overachieved at the beginning of the year?
- Will the Chargers get a running game?
- Was the Jets surge in the playoffs for real or did they just get hot at the right time and they are just the team that backed into the playoffs by facing two teams that rested their starters at the end of the season?

No doubt the Pats have their own question marks (maybe more than the teams I listed), but there are quite a few teams on the Pats' schedule that could have a worse year in 2010 than they did in 2009.

 

[Metaphors]

I wouldn't. They were returning plenty of production at WR/TE. They let Harrison go but were returning Wayne (82 catches), Clark (77 catches), and Gonzalez (57 catches).

With Welker uncertain, Edelman at 37 catches is the second leading returning pass catcher after Moss. The 3rd best returning WR/TE is Aiken who caught 20 balls.

The Colts were looking for 4th and 5th options in their passing game at this time last year and found them. The Pats need to find more than 4th/5th options. Fortunately, there is still a lot of time between now and the season.

I was commenting on the WR depth chart, not the "WR/TE" or receiving "options". If you want to change the context, that's fine but do it in a fair way. Moss-Wayne and Gonzalez-Edelman are fair. Clark-Aiken is just being silly:

- Welker's knee was injured, not demolecularized. Unless there is a significant setback, why not assume he will be on the field sometime this year?
- The Pats actually do have a TE now and he managed 27 catches with Collins/VY throwing to him.
- Faulk is more of a receiving "option" than Aiken.

The Colts were short on the WR depth chart (Wayne, Gonzalez) and decided to devote a couple of mid/low draft picks to supplement them. Even after Gonzalez got hurt, I don't recall passing being a problem for them.

The Pats already have their Garcon (Tate) and now just need their Collie...and there are a ton of WRs like him in this draft (Price, Easley, Mitchell, Sanders, etc). So why is the Moss/Edelman/Tate/Price vs. Wayne/Gonzalez/Garcon/Collie not at least in the ballpark...and that isn't even including Welker's return or Gonzalez not contributing at all last year. Aiken becomes the Hank Baskett in this equation, not the Dallas Clark.

The Pats do need to get their "Dallas Clark" this year and I can't imagine anyone thinking Alge Crumpler or Sam Aiken is that guy. Unlike the Colts who had to scramble after Gonzalez' injury, the Pats have to ammo to trade for a TE (Olsen) or draft one relatively high (Pitta).

The problem I have is the perception that you can't integrate young WRs with a top QB and expect to win...when the Colts did exactly that just a year ago. Tate is no more unknown than Garcon and Collie were last year. This draft is flush with talented WRs and TEs and the Pats are flush with picks to get as many as they want.

 

[Kontradiction]

I'd argue that you underrate Edelman and no mention of Tate. Neither are JAGs.

We have no Punter yet.

We don't know what we have in McKenzie. Guyton is solid.

I can't believe you just called Guyton "solid". He's not terrible (he's great in coverage), but he's not what the Patriots need lining up next to Mayo at ILB... at all.

 

[Jangles]

The Pats already have their Garcon (Tate)

Tate was a major contributor and helped the Patriots immensely?

I don't remember that.

 

[Metaphors]

Tate was a major contributor and helped the Patriots immensely?

I don't remember that.

On March 26th last year, Garcon wasn't even on the Colts. Yet he still turned out OK. Not sure sure why it is impossible to believe that Tate on March 26th this year can't project to do the same for the Pats in 2010.

 

[RodThePat]

We have a brutal schedule and only a mediocre team

The Dolphins are mediocre. The Jaguars are mediocre. The Bengals are mediocre.

We are at least an above average team. Without making any moves this team is already better than last year's. Brady is healthier, our young players will most likely improve, we have 4 picks in the first two rounds. There is absolutely no reason to believe we won't be at least contending for the division title in 2010.

 

[Kontradiction]

The Dolphins are mediocre. The Jaguars are mediocre. The Bengals are mediocre.

We are at least an above average team. Without making any moves this team is already better than last year's. Brady is healthier, our young players will most likely improve, we have 4 picks in the first two rounds. There is absolutely no reason to believe we won't be at least contending for the division title in 2010.

This team right now is not better than last year's team. Not by a long shot. Last year's team had a healthy Welker. On top of that, we don't have a receiving tight end at all. Add onto this all of the problems that we had last season, and I do not see a better team right now than what we had in 2009.

 

[Jangles]

This team right now is not better than last year's team. Not by a long shot. Last year's team had a healthy Welker. On top of that, we don't have a receiving tight end at all. Add onto this all of the problems that we had last season, and I do not see a better team right now than what we had in 2009.

yep

Also putting any stock in draft picks is stupid. Sure we have some decent picks but we must utilize them effectively. This draft could be great and we could find some real game changers. Or we could draft a bunch of bums and be that much worse off

 

[jmt57]

the WR corps is just terrible

As of now Edelman and Moss are the only 2 WRs we have that need defending. If we go into the season with that same line up. I'll be surprised if we win half of our games. Especially considering our lack of a real RB

Yes, as of this moment the WR corps is not good. But why would you assume that the lineup in March will be the same as the lineup in September? Putting stock in draft picks is stupid but assuming nobody will be added that will contribute isn't?

Randy Moss is the only real threat and he is getting old. I love Randy, I hope he retires a Pat but '07 Randy Moss probably isn't coming back. Expecting him to flat out run away from double coverage might be a little much anymore.

That's one possibility. Another that is a year removed from season long back injuries and being in a contract year, he plays better in 2010 with a fully recovered Tom Brady than he did in a 2009 season in which he led the league with 13 TD receptions and was 5th in receiving yards with 1264. Either one could happen, or maybe something inbetween.

The situation reminds me of 2007 when the announcers were discussing the strengths of the divisions by W/L record

Even with the Pats at 16-0 I think the AFC East that year had the worst W/L record. That's why I called the WR corp terrible. Moss is great, Edelman is good, the others are so bad that they lower the groups average tremendously

The weakness of the AFC East in 2007 has been repeatedly overstated by Pats haters so often that it's accepted by fact. The truth is there were four other divisions that also had only one team with a winning record that year. Despite the inclusion of the NFL's worst team that season (the 1-15 Dolphins) the AFC East still collectively had a better record than three other divisions, the NFC South, the NFC West and the AFC West. That would make the the AFC East a middle of the pack division; they were definitely not the worst.

Regardless, I'm not sure how the strength or weakness of a division makes a team's WR corp terrible.

We have a brutal schedule and only a mediocre team

With the exception of two games we have the identical schedule as the other teams in the division.

As far as predicting how a team will do based on their schedule and preseason roster, look back no further than last year's Steelers. The defending Super Bowl champs had the easiest schedule in the NFL and they lost almost nobody to free agency from their championship team - and they missed the playoffs. In '07 the Patriots' schedule looked brutal, having to face the AFC North and NFC East, plus the Chargers and Colts, but that team manged to do okay.

A so-called brutal or easy schedule is almost meaningless, especially in March.