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Projecting 2013 free agent contracts

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jmt57, Mar 6, 2013.

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  1. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I stumbled across this and thought I would share, as there seems to be much debate (as there is every year) on how much free agents will sign for, what it will take to sign or re-sign certain players, etc.

    It is from Evan Silva, who is forecasting what the top 50 free agents will sign for; he's also forecasting where they will sign.

    Top 50 Free Agent Forecast | Evan Silva | Rotoworld

    Silva lists the following:

    - Aqib Talib: 4 years, $30 million
    - Sebastian Vollmer: 5 years, $36 million
    - Wes Welker: 3 years, $27 million.


    Projections for plenty of other free agents that are garnering much discussion as well; among them:
    - Paul Kruger (5/60)
    - Michael Bennett (5/36)
    - Dwight Freeney (2/10)
    - Dashon Goldson (5/42)
    - Sean Smith (4/32)
    - Brent Grimes (1/7.5)
    - Ed Reed (1/5.5) ... with the Pats

    - Mike Wallace (4/50)
    - Greg Jennings (4/25)
    - Danny Amendola (3/18.5)
  2. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Teams added in bold. FWIW, he did this on February 26.

  3. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    I don't see how you can project the Bears with Cutler. The short passing game isn't exactly his forte. If they could get Talib, Vollmer and Reed for those years and dollars I'd be happy with that.
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    $7M/yr for a right tackle is not cheap.
  5. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Everything seems pretty spot on to me, with the exception of the following:

    Kruger 5/60...LOL Someone is going to make that one desperate move of the FA period. I wouldn't think Kruger should warrant any more than about 5/45 at best. What the hell has he proven besides 20% of a decent career? He's way too high here.

    Goldson 5/42..I think that this is too high by about 5 million.

    5/37 is my opinion.

    G.Jennings 4/25? Huh? I would hope that we'd jump on that as quickly as possible as an upgrade to Llyod if Jennings only costs 4/25.

    I see 4/35 as something much closer. He's way too low here.
  6. Brady6

    Brady6 Rookie

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    You're so right Kruger is a part time player with 9 sacks for $12m a year.
  7. HomerSchooled

    HomerSchooled Rookie

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    Agreed. 4/25 would be a bargain I'd hate for the Pats to miss out on. If his market's anywhere close to that soft, I'd love to see him come in.
  8. Lamanai

    Lamanai Rookie

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    Looking at these figures got me thinking. Are all these big contracts reasonable with the liklihood that middle tier and lower rung players will be paid too ? I know there are a lot of things to consider such as restructures and further cuts, so take the following with a grain of salt. I am thinking big picture, relative numbers, not specific. So given my limited knowledge of NFL salary cap intricacies, at your peril, read on...


    The most recent list of available cap space by team i saw indicates that the league has about a collective $500 million in cap space available, or roughly $15 million per team. This is also about the median. Deducting some amount to sign draft picks and have a working fund for the season of say $5 million per team (my estimate) means each team has about $10 million to work with. Again, some level of cap space can be added by further cuts and restructures, (and contracts can be back loaded) but much of that has already occurred. So I think it is unlikely that teams are going to be adding as much as $150 million ($5 million each) to the total. I would guess significantly less, actually. Even if they do, use $15 million per team as a (very) rough etimate. Does that sound like a veritable bonanza available to FA considering the number and quality of players hanging out there right now? I say no.

    Result: Big Time Buyers Market (Especially for the patient!)
  9. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    i want brent grimes for that price!
  10. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'd have a hard time imagining us being able to pry him away from ATL, given the small window of differences in offers. This is also my main concern with someone like Ed Reed too. The Pats would have to really step it up and offer something higher enough than BAL for Reed to realistically want to leave. After all he's a "Raven for life" right? ;)

    In the case of Grimes, you're likely going to have a few teams or more interested who are all going to be in that same ballpark of approx. 7 million on a one year deal. Unless someone offers him something significant enough or a multi-year deal (doubtful in my opinion due to the seriousness of his Achilles injury) he'll probably stay in Atlanta.

    Even if someone offers him a 2-3 yr deal, it'd still be in that 7 million or so aav mark, which Grimes himself likely won't want due to feeling that next year he can hit free agency again and be in that 10 million aav ballpark again. In other words, a one year deal to stay in ATL just makes too much sense when you think about it.
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'd fully agree, with the exception of not knowing exactly how much the 89% cap floor rule may play a part with the usual lower spending teams who are 30-40 million+ under at the moment.

    As to your bigger point, I think we'll continue our current successful philosophy of individually assessing value on a specific player and not wanting to go above it, so I don't really see much change there. If there was going to be a lot of change, we'd have seen deals or a tag with at least one of Talib/Vollmer in a move that showed some hints at desperation in wanting to fill needs. Obviously, that isn't the case.

    I think your point will prove to be true, but I also think that these next couple/few yrs of flat era cap mgmt will play a big part in our potential future success. It could be thought that this is only the beginning of what things will be like in terms of 2014 and 2015 offseasons, in terms of cap casualties and being able to steal players at good rates of value from those who have mismanaged their resources.
  12. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    any team can get almost any player they want... there are loopholes in the cap system. back load it..signing bonus ect

    Pats could sign dashon and back load his contract and give him a big signing bonus ect
  13. Lamanai

    Lamanai Rookie

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    Yes, I agree is true when talking about a team getting almost any player they want, I don't think that is true that they can get any *players* they want. I do think it is a bit of a zero sum game in that if you structure things how you want with Player A, it negatively impacts your ability to acquire Player B, C & D, or next year's Player A.

    I was thinking of things in a macro sense.
  14. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Those aren't loopholes. Those are gambles.

    For example, the Patriots took a gamble when they signed Afailius Thomas: namely, the contract was structured that for at least the first three years, they simply could not have cut him. He took advantage of that in 2009, and it helped force the Patriots to trade Vrabel to KC.
  15. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    Tom Brady will rue the day he extended his contract when his starting wide
    receivers are Slater and Edleman. BB will concentrate on signing a few
    over the hill guys like Reed and Hillis.
  16. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    While your point is true on a certain level, this team has been more successful on a consistent basis than any other team in the salary cap era. I believe that since Kraft took over the team, no one has won more games since 1994.

    That is due to the fact that they manage their negotiations and financial decisions better than most other teams, with one eye on the present and the other eye on the future. Since Belichick has taken over in 2000, they are even more dedicated to how the current decisions affect the future more than ever.

    You rarely, if ever, see the kinds of deals that you are speaking of on this particular team, and that's by design. This current flat cap era will benefit us over the course of the next several years, and it already has since 2010.
  17. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Luckily that will never happen. Belichick, Kraft, Brady and company are definitely all on the same page when it comes to winning right now. They will most likely never bring in an outside guy who is deemed to be of poor value, but they will certainly do everything they can to make the WR group viable enough to compete at a high level.

    Just last year alone we saw them extend 2 of the top 3 targets in Gronk and Hernandez, while tagging Welker and paying him 10 million dollars. They also gave Brady an extension the year before, and the year after. All 4 of those guys were handsomely paid.

    Belichick also went out and tried to lure Reggie Wayne away from IND with a contract offer that was higher than what they were offering. He also went out and signed Brandon Llyod, who was the best available WR on the market at the time. The difference is that those guys were in the middle tier market instead of wastes like Wallace, Bowe etc who are commanding more than 11 million a year+.

    I understand your point, but you may be mixing up the name of your second player. Did you mean to say "Hillis?" As in Peyton Hillis, the failed RB/FB? If so, there's no way that's going to happen, especially with our RB situation being great at the moment. We have Ridley who carried for 1250 or so yds, Vereen in the wings as a 3rd down back, Bolden as a bruiser, Demps as an olympic track star and former RB at Florida, and still have the possibility of signing Danny Woodhead--who caught 40 balls out of the backfield last year.

    A player like Ed Reed/Charles Woodson etc may very well be over the hill, but can also offer the kind of experience and leadership in the back end of the secondary until our high 2nd round pick Tavon Wilson is ready to take over. Stability in the safety position is sorely needed. I have no problem whatsover if they bring in one of those guys at that position, or on the DL/OL too. It's the other positions such as bringing in older WRs/RBs/CBs that have failed us recently.
  18. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Reminder: McDaniels traded Hillis out of Denver for reportedly hitting on his wife
  19. BradyBranch39

    BradyBranch39 Rookie

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    Silva's PFT articles used to be a joke... just like a bunch of these predictions.
  20. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    On some website, the Patriots wanted Hillis or Turner as RBs for goalline
    situations. With regards to my fears, I have probably seen the Patriots
    do too many foolish things (pre BB) over my 54 years of following them.
  21. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    STOP IT, just stop it. You're starting to sound like a spoiled child. Nothing like that is going to happen and YOU know it. Christ you sound like Fox News before a 6" snow storm. "How will we SURVIVE!?" :rolleyes: The fact is that regardless of who are our starting WR's (and Slater worn't be one of them) the Pats are going to be a top 5 passing attack. Hell we were 11th best with Caldwell, Gaffney and Brown back in 06 (7th best scoring O)

    BUCK UP, man. You have no idea how the WR position will end iup.
  22. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    Not so fast, Supe, I'm thinking the Pats are going to want a big short yardage RB/FB on the roster this year, and quite frankly, Peyton Hillis, at the vet minimum,would be an excellent choice I really didn't think were were as effective in those short yardage/GL situations as we have been in the past and it might have been the reason we passed the ball so often on on those 3rd and 2 situations, that frustrated me so much. If the Pats end up moving on from Danny Woodhead, Hillis would make an solid choice that the #5RB.
  23. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    Wow! At 81, I take it as a compliment to be called a spoiled child.
  24. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    You are absolutely correct....up to a point. The Flacco deal shows how much a team can back load a deal with cap numbers of $7 and $13MM the next 2 years, on a deal that averages over $20MM/yr. So sure the Pats could sign all 3 of their big FA's to top of the market deals and still be fine with the cap....THIS year, and maybe next. But what about beyond that.

    To make that kind of management decision they would be making a conscious choice to put a finite limit to the consistent level of excellence we've had for the last 12 years in order to chase a risky short term goal.

    I'm not saying they SHOULDN'T do it. I certainly could be done. You could easily sign all 3 of our guys to deals that would carry a combined cap number of under $10MM next year and still have plenty of money to sign an Ed Reed and/or Dwight Freeney or their type of veteran presence that is sorely needed by this young defense.....and still have money left over to resign Edelman, Arrington, etc

    But if they chose to do that, the end result in 2015 or 16 will be a team that will have to undergo a massive turnover in order to clear cap space, and we could be looking at a season like in 2000 when they had to do the same thing. And you do this knowing that, even then, winning the Lombardi is no sure thing.

    The other Strategy is to continue on like we are doing. Constantly in the mix at the end of the year, and who knows, perhaps WE will be the hot team, the one that gets the breaks and bounces, and winds up winning it all.
  25. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    Pardon me then. Let me amend that to "cranky old man" :D
  26. Gronkandez

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    Luckily he has two of the top five receiving Tight Ends in the NFL. And Slater will not be a WR. I'd rather resign Reche Caldwell and Ocho than play him. They'll be fine...I think.
  27. Kenneth Sims

    Kenneth Sims Rookie

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    To illustrate, if Wes Welker signed a 4 yr $32 million dollar contact with a $12 million signing bonus, his 2013 cap figure could be as low as $4 million ($3 million prorated bonus and $1 million salary-round up of vet minimum).

    Teams can and do get themselves in trouble by back loading cap hits, but my opinion is if you're comfortable the player will play out his contract with you than it's worth doing. Therefore, I'd do it for Welker but not so much for Talib or Vollmer because of their character and health issues respectively. Dead money is the cap killer.
  28. Coog548

    Coog548 Rookie

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    Michael Bennett (5/36) Bucs

    Sign me up. He is the least talked about player who is young and could compliment Jones on the other side. I can't believe the hype the guy in Baltimore is getting compared to this guy.
  29. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Maybe it is more of a possibility than I am giving credit to, I just see a lot of other priorities before we'd get to the position of RB to be honest with you. Like Sciz mentioned, reportedly McDaniels moved Hillis out of town for hitting on his wife, so we have to take that into account if it's true.

    I'm thinking that some of the failures with the shorter yrdg situations could be chalked up to failed blocking, rather than our specific RBs. Between Ridley and Bolden we should have enough strength to pick those situations up. I'd imagine that you may be right that at least another RB or two will be brought in for camp fodder, I just didn't personally see much need for another RB. I guess the Woodhead situation will help to shape that too on some level.
  30. Wretch

    Wretch Rookie

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    It might be interesting to look at free agent contracts a little differently. Rather than looking it as X years/Y millions, I was wondering if it might be more useful to look it as what percentage of available salary dollars will the free agents get.

    I was looking at some salary cap numbers for 2014 and there is approximately $500 million dollars in available in salary cap space in the NFL not taking into account franchise tags or potential cuts/restructures like Carson Palmer ($13M cap hit in 2014).

    So if you look at the annual averages the projected salaries above.
    Talib: $7.5M/year, 1.5% of Total 2014 Cap Space
    Vollmer: $7.2M, 1.4%
    Welker: $9M, 1.8%
    Kruger: $12M, 2.4%
    Bennett: $7.2M, 1.4%
    Freeney: $5M, 1%
    Goldson: $8.4M, 1.7%
    Smith: $8M, 1.6%
    Grimes: $7.5M, 1.5%
    Reed: $5.5M, 1.1%

    Total: $77.3M or 15.5% of total available cap space for 2014.

    Not sure what those numbers mean but I thought it was an interesting way to look at free agent contracts.
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