Programming Alert: Colts/Texans on NFLN Right Now

[Satchboogie3]

Colts 41
Patriots 6

Book it. Colts are in Patriots head for sure. Won 4 out of the last 5... the days of Manning pissing himself against NE are so over. I worry more about the Texans then I do the Pats now..

The most the Pats have lost to the Colts by (with Brady) was 19 in 2005 (40-21). The Pats have a 7-3 edge. In those wins, we outscored Indy by 12.7 PPG. Of the 3 loses, Indy won by 10 PPG.

What makes you think you are going to blow out the Pats like you have never done before? What makes you think you will limit the Pats (a team scoring 28 PPG) to only 6 points? What makes you think the Colts (scoring 27 PPG) will score 41 on a defense giving up only 14.4 PPG?

Everything so far seems to predict a close game. Expecting a blowout is beyond homerism.

 

[jays52]

For all the marvel over what an offensive-genius Peyton is (and it pains me to use the word genius in the same sentence as that goober), it truly is amazing how simple their offense seems.

3 wide + Dallas Clark + Addai in the backfield + an absurd amount of slants.

The other thing the Colts do well is abuse that fine line re: the rule of a receiver essentially setting a pick on another. Seriously, the Colts should just put Dennis Rodman out there at receiver and have him set up some screens for Clark and Wayne, b/c that's basically what they do now. They run receivers right into the opposing DB on a play-to-play basis. But what's legal, what's not? It's extremely ambiguous, so why not take advantage of it?

The bummer is that that makes playing man pretty tough. If you're playing the Colts wideouts up tight, you're going to find yourself unwittingly running right into another Colt wideout pretty quick. If you play zone, they'll just run those slants and take everything underneath.

I know very little about defensive coverages - let me rephrase that, I know pretty much nothing about defensive coverages. Jays52 I'm relying on you to help me out with this question - to a simple football fan like myself, it seems like one's best bet against the Colts would be to play man underneath, but flood the intermediate part of the field with LBs & safety to protect the CBs who get run off wideouts, or just to protect from all those slants?

First, you are far from a simple fan dude. You're one of the best posters we have on this site, and I value your input on many things. Now, to the nitty gritty.

Let me preface this by saying that I am not the best or most knowledgable guy on here to ask, but I'll try my best. Anytime you look at making a scheme, you need to consider what the opponent does. Like you said, there's a lot of rub stuff, a lot of slants, a lot of PA, and a lot of Clark. Then, you need to look at who they have to do it. Manning, Wayne, and Clark are the keys to the offense. While they do run some PA stuff, it is anciliary to what that trio does.

It is well known what Manning goes to the line with. He reads a defense, makes his protection call, attempts to force the coverage to show pre-snap, makes his check, and executes the play. Obviously, the key here is to create illusion. It's not about disguising something, it's about showing Manning A and giving him B. Further, it is about giving Manning a read that will cause an anticipated check, and then defending that check. The Colts understand this, so much of their passes are constructed around patterns that are effective against both man and zone.

Such is the slant. The slant is fundamentally about body positioning. When you have a reciever like Wayne, who is in that apex of a career that blends athleticism and veteran play. If you play zone, it's a complete ball underneath and a tackle. If you gamble and try to jump it, it opens the Sluggo and you are liable to get burnt for six. If you play man, Wayne positions his body to make the grab. With a corner draped over, he catches the ball for a short gain. If the corner risks stepping in for a pick, he could also get burnt for a sizeable gain after the catch. The key to defending the slant patterns is not letting the receiver get off the line, and if he does, take away the inside release. Bodden is one of the best press corners in the league. If I were drawing things up I would tell Bodden to ride Wayne to the sideline, or not let him get off. So, we have the first piece taken care of. Bodden, you take Wayne and bully him for 60 minutes. I would give him a loose bracket over the top from the free as well. You can't rub a defender if one of the recievers is stuck on the line.

I think where that intermediate flood works is with Clark. First, I would make it a long game for him. If he's going to get off of the line, it will be because he beat McGowan off of the line. If he catches the ball, SS Pat Chung is going to decapitate him. I doubt Clark's heart, and I would challenge it as a starting point. I would play mostly in a 33 nickel, McGowan playing as a 3rd safety assigned to Clark. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look. Thomas at sam, Mayo in the middle, Guyton as the will. I would blitz one of them except for in obvious situations. If not, their coverage is assigned to occupying the middle of the field, and pick up Addai on any release. Obviously, a blend. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look.

Well, my inbox is fairly daunting right now, so I gotta stop this before I geek too far, but I hope that it was fairly helpful. If I missed anything, or was ineffective in answering your question, please don't hesistate to ask.

 

[Sicilian]

Colts 41
Patriots 6

Book it. Colts are in Patriots head for sure. Won 4 out of the last 5... the days of Manning pissing himself against NE are so over. I worry more about the Texans then I do the Pats now..

Colts have scored 40+ once this year, and it was against the Rams. Patriots haven't given up more than 24 in any game this year. I find it very unlikely that the Colts score 41 this Sunday, especially since the Pats will likely try to chew up a ton of clock. If the Colts are going to win, it's going to be more like last year, a low scoring three point game. With Brady in now (not Cassel) and the Colts ravaged by defensive injuries... well, you do the math.

 

[mayoclinic]

There are few tackles in the NFL who have both the footwork and the wingspan to keep up with Freeny's outside stuff. When there is a tackle that can keep up with his outside speed, it negates his ability to spin to the inside. Sebastian Vollmer is such a player. He is a 6'8 version of Ryan Clady, and likely has better acceleration than Clady. From a one on one matchup perspective, Vollmer is a nightmare for a guy like Freeny. What Vollmer lacks is a full compliment of counter moves to those of a veteran pass rusher. Due to Freeny's reliance upon his athleticism, Vollmer is going to be a tough battle.

That ain't homerism, that's simple logic.

Jays, I have tremendous respect for your insight and analysis. I'm also very high on Sebastian Vollmer. But don't you think it's a tad premature to declare Vollmer a 6'8" version of Ryan Clady? I certainly hope you're right, but Clady's the best pure LT I've seen come into the league in years, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he handles Freeney when Denver and Indy meet in Week 14, and comparing his performance to Vollmer's.

I've always considered Vollmer's upside to be more comparable to Michael Roos than to Clady. I'd be curious to hear more about your views.

 

[BionicPatriot]

First, you are far from a simple fan dude. You're one of the best posters we have on this site, and I value your input on many things. Now, to the nitty gritty.

Let me preface this by saying that I am not the best or most knowledgable guy on here to ask, but I'll try my best. Anytime you look at making a scheme, you need to consider what the opponent does. Like you said, there's a lot of rub stuff, a lot of slants, a lot of PA, and a lot of Clark. Then, you need to look at who they have to do it. Manning, Wayne, and Clark are the keys to the offense. While they do run some PA stuff, it is anciliary to what that trio does.

It is well known what Manning goes to the line with. He reads a defense, makes his protection call, attempts to force the coverage to show pre-snap, makes his check, and executes the play. Obviously, the key here is to create illusion. It's not about disguising something, it's about showing Manning A and giving him B. Further, it is about giving Manning a read that will cause an anticipated check, and then defending that check. The Colts understand this, so much of their passes are constructed around patterns that are effective against both man and zone.

Such is the slant. The slant is fundamentally about body positioning. When you have a reciever like Wayne, who is in that apex of a career that blends athleticism and veteran play. If you play zone, it's a complete ball underneath and a tackle. If you gamble and try to jump it, it opens the Sluggo and you are liable to get burnt for six. If you play man, Wayne positions his body to make the grab. With a corner draped over, he catches the ball for a short gain. If the corner risks stepping in for a pick, he could also get burnt for a sizeable gain after the catch. The key to defending the slant patterns is not letting the receiver get off the line, and if he does, take away the inside release. Bodden is one of the best press corners in the league. If I were drawing things up I would tell Bodden to ride Wayne to the sideline, or not let him get off. So, we have the first piece taken care of. Bodden, you take Wayne and bully him for 60 minutes. I would give him a loose bracket over the top from the free as well. You can't rub a defender if one of the recievers is stuck on the line.

I think where that intermediate flood works is with Clark. First, I would make it a long game for him. If he's going to get off of the line, it will be because he beat McGowan off of the line. If he catches the ball, SS Pat Chung is going to decapitate him. I doubt Clark's heart, and I would challenge it as a starting point. I would play mostly in a 33 nickel, McGowan playing as a 3rd safety assigned to Clark. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look. Thomas at sam, Mayo in the middle, Guyton as the will. I would blitz one of them except for in obvious situations. If not, their coverage is assigned to occupying the middle of the field, and pick up Addai on any release. Obviously, a blend. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look.

Well, my inbox is fairly daunting right now, so I gotta stop this before I geek too far, but I hope that it was fairly helpful. If I missed anything, or was ineffective in answering your question, please don't hesistate to ask.

Wow, what an awesome break down. I'm lovin the game plan and I agree. We need to have at least one blitzer coming at a decent rate from the LBs. We need to make Manning very uncomfortable sunday.

 

[BradyManny]

I think where that intermediate flood works is with Clark. First, I would make it a long game for him. If he's going to get off of the line, it will be because he beat McGowan off of the line. If he catches the ball, SS Pat Chung is going to decapitate him. I doubt Clark's heart, and I would challenge it as a starting point. I would play mostly in a 33 nickel, McGowan playing as a 3rd safety assigned to Clark. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look. Thomas at sam, Mayo in the middle, Guyton as the will. I would blitz one of them except for in obvious situations. If not, their coverage is assigned to occupying the middle of the field, and pick up Addai on any release. Obviously, a blend.

That's great stuff, thanks for input. 3-3-5 personnel sounds appropriate, we'll likely need to stick in it if the Colts go fast-paced like they normally do - something like Ty-Vince-Wright on early downs* and TBC/Burgess/Wright in passing situations. I'm not sure we've seen much of TBC & Burgess as DEs on a 3-man line (or at all), but this could be a game where we see less 4-man lines b/c we need to have another guy in coverage.

In terms of Clark with McGowan on him - considering how often Clark starts off on the line, I wonder if the Pats will use AD &/or TBC to bump him at the line, before handing him off to McGowan.

Assuming AD is out of the doghouse and playing at a fairly high level again (maybe not a safe assumption), we'll be reminded again in this game why the Pats have had success against Manning in the past - versatile linebackers and safeties. By having 6 guys who can cover or blitz out of those two positions (Guyton, Mayo, AD & McGowan, Chung, Meriweather), it might make Manning's life a little harder. Can't say we've had that versatile personnel in the past seasons - not to mention, like you say, having a guy like Bodden you can put on Wayne and feel OK about.

This is a very different Pats defense then the one that couldn't hang on in 2006.

*I wonder if we see Big Vince at end at times again. With the way the Colts run those sweeps and run out of the gun, seemingly often at the tackles, having a guy as big and fast as Vince on the outside might be a better way to go.

 

[mayoclinic]

Colts have scored 40+ once this year, and it was against the Rams. Patriots haven't given up more than 24 in any game this year. I find it very unlikely that the Colts score 41 this Sunday, especially since the Pats will likely try to chew up a ton of clock. If the Colts are going to win, it's going to be more like last year, a low scoring three point game. With Brady in now (not Cassel) and the Colts ravaged by defensive injuries... well, you do the math.

Actually, despite their reputation as an offensive juggernaut, the Colts have rarely scored over 40 points. They've done it once so far this year, against the Rams who have rank 29th in terms of scoring defense. They didn't score 40 once last year. They did it once in 2007 (against Baltimore), and twice in 2006 (against Houston and Philadelphia).

Anything can happen, but statistically the odds that the Colts score 40 against the 2nd ranked scoring defense in the NFL is fairly low.

 

[mayoclinic]

The key to defending the slant patterns is not letting the receiver get off the line, and if he does, take away the inside release. Bodden is one of the best press corners in the league. If I were drawing things up I would tell Bodden to ride Wayne to the sideline, or not let him get off. So, we have the first piece taken care of. Bodden, you take Wayne and bully him for 60 minutes. I would give him a loose bracket over the top from the free as well. You can't rub a defender if one of the recievers is stuck on the line.

Very sound analysis. I agree. I think pressing and being physical with the Colts receivers will be key, and Bodden excels at that.

I think where that intermediate flood works is with Clark. First, I would make it a long game for him. If he's going to get off of the line, it will be because he beat McGowan off of the line. If he catches the ball, SS Pat Chung is going to decapitate him. I doubt Clark's heart, and I would challenge it as a starting point. I would play mostly in a 33 nickel, McGowan playing as a 3rd safety assigned to Clark. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look. Thomas at sam, Mayo in the middle, Guyton as the will. I would blitz one of them except for in obvious situations. If not, their coverage is assigned to occupying the middle of the field, and pick up Addai on any release. Obviously, a blend. Meriweather is assigned to roam back there and make plays on deep balls as the cover 2 free, Chung assigned to stick anything that crosses his vision. Make it simple for the rookie, let him play assasin from a cover 2 look.

I think this is a brilliant analysis, and not just for the Colts games. The way things are progressing, it looks to me like Merwieather, McGowan and Chung will be 3 of our best defenders, and I would hope that we can find a way to get them on the field as much possible. I see us using a 3 safety nickel with Butler/Bodden at CB and Meriweather/McGowan/Chung at safety more and more. Chung and McGowan and both play a hybrid LB role. All 3 can blitz like the ****ens. Meriweather excels as the ballhawk and can also play nickel CB. Chung will excel in the box and as an enforcer over the middle. McGowan excels in coverage and as a playmaker. The 3 safeties complement each other nicely.

Obviously, BB will continue to mix things up and throw a variety of formations at teams. But there's no substitution for getting playmakers on the field, and right now I see maximizing our playmakers by playing a lot of 3-3-5. Thomas, Mayo and Guyton have the speed and range to handle the middle, and we are used to having a 3 man DL. We've never had this many playmakers in the secondary before now, and it should only get better as Chung and Butler develop.

 

[Patspsycho]

I was thinking the dime for the entire game, but would not be surprised to see the 33 nickel. Dime because McGowan can motion down to shadow Clark. You can definitely expect someone to hit, bump, or grind Clark as he comes off LOS.

This week you are going to see the DB's really tested in practice as BB will have them go through fakes and disguises and motion. I hope that we will see a lot of motion right up to the snap to interfere with Manning's read, but you know if he sees too much of this he will mix up the snap count. If Manning calls more than one timeout, you will know we have something over him.

Twice this past Sunday we showed blitz way too early. Henne did not take advantage of it, but you know Manning will. I think this is one thing BB will work on with the DB's this week. They have their jobs cut out for them.

I cannot wait to see what wrinkle we will throw at them.

 

[jays52]

Assuming AD is out of the doghouse and playing at a fairly high level again (maybe not a safe assumption), we'll be reminded again in this game why the Pats have had success against Manning in the past - versatile linebackers and safeties. By having 6 guys who can cover or blitz out of those two positions (Guyton, Mayo, AD & McGowan, Chung, Meriweather), it might make Manning's life a little harder. Can't say we've had that versatile personnel in the past seasons - not to mention, like you say, having a guy like Bodden you can put on Wayne and feel OK about.

This is a very different Pats defense then the one that couldn't hang on in 2006.

That's it. Right there. We all know what happens when BB gets his versitile defenders. They're starting to come together, the young guys are starting to play, Mayo is starting to look a little more healed up, this defense is the real deal. The way I see it, this is far and away the best defense they've had since '04.

 

[Synovia]

The most the Pats have lost to the Colts by (with Brady) was 19 in 2005 (40-21). The Pats have a 7-3 edge. In those wins, we outscored Indy by 12.7 PPG. Of the 3 loses, Indy won by 10 PPG.

What makes you think you are going to blow out the Pats like you have never done before? What makes you think you will limit the Pats (a team scoring 28 PPG) to only 6 points? What makes you think the Colts (scoring 27 PPG) will score 41 on a defense giving up only 14.4 PPG?

Everything so far seems to predict a close game. Expecting a blowout is beyond homerism.

What makes any of those things relevant? They're different teams every year, and its a different game.

 

[jays52]

I'd be curious to hear more about your views.

Mayo mi amigo, when they drafted Vollmer, I had no idea who he was. None. I was bewildered by the pick. So, like anything we don't understand, I had to research it. Big guy, but no discernable numbers from him. So, I had to find some video clips of the guy.

I found one when Dante was working him out through some offensive line drills. I was slackjawed at his footwork. The best I had ever seen in an offense lineman, no hyperbole. Nevermind what a monster the guy was. I looked on to some of the senior bowl stuff. He was the only tackle in the drills who shut down Larry English. In fact, nobody beat him. He was alone in that regard.

I then went to a handful of TC practices. Vollmer's size obviously stood out, but what really impressed me was how well the guy moved laterally. Again, this is the kind of stuff I have never seen. He moved like a quick footed tight end. I couldn't wrap my head around it. I thought I was just imagining stuff. Then, I saw a drill where he was going up against Thomas. There was a toss, Thomas read it and burst towards the outside. Vollmer came out of his bucket step and accelerated towards Thomas. With Thomas running full gate, Vollmer not only reached him, he was able to square on him. Any other tackle, and that would have been a TFL. Again, I thought AD must have taken the play off. I decided to shut up about Vollmer for a while because there was no way he was as physically rare as I was seeing him.

Then, the season started. He's proving that I may have been right about the guy. I don't really get into the combine numbers, measurables, and things like that. I can't really put a tangible mark on who he is comparable to. Having said that, I do look at players quite closely, and I feel that I have a pretty balanced and educated eye. I look at the footwork, I look at the leverage, I look at the technique, I look for them downfield when they leave the frame. I am not being hyperbolic when I say what I see from Vollmer is every bit as impressive as '08 Clady, if not more. What I see in Vollmer is something that I have never seen before, period. I know it's early, but strictly from this small sample, I am comfortable in saying that he can be as good as he wants to be. When I say that, I mean a precedent setter.

 

[Synovia]

Big guy, but no discernable numbers from him. So, I had to find some video clips of the guy
....

I was slackjawed at his footwork. The best I had ever seen in an offense lineman, no hyperbole. Nevermind what a monster the guy was. I looked on to some of the senior bowl stuff. He was the only tackle in the drills who shut down Larry English. In fact, nobody beat him. He was alone in that regard.

Jays, I completely agree, and had a similar experience. Saw he was drafted, went to youtube, and was shocked. My though was "why the hell was this kid expected to be available so late?" The kid looks like (a white) Ogden when Ogden was young. Someone that big shouldn't move that well.


I almost feel like this is one of those picks where everyone was trying to outsmart everyone else. They all said he was originally predicted to go in the 4th or 5th, and were trying to get value by drafting him in the 3rd or 4th, and BB knew better.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo mi amigo, when they drafted Vollmer, I had no idea who he was. None. I was bewildered by the pick. So, like anything we don't understand, I had to research it. Big guy, but no discernable numbers from him. So, I had to find some video clips of the guy.

I found one when Dante was working him out through some offensive line drills. I was slackjawed at his footwork. The best I had ever seen in an offense lineman, no hyperbole. Nevermind what a monster the guy was. I looked on to some of the senior bowl stuff. He was the only tackle in the drills who shut down Larry English. In fact, nobody beat him. He was alone in that regard.

I then went to a handful of TC practices. Vollmer's size obviously stood out, but what really impressed me was how well the guy moved laterally. Again, this is the kind of stuff I have never seen. He moved like a quick footed tight end. I couldn't wrap my head around it. I thought I was just imagining stuff. Then, I saw a drill where he was going up against Thomas. There was a toss, Thomas read it and burst towards the outside. Vollmer came out of his bucket step and accelerated towards Thomas. With Thomas running full gate, Vollmer not only reached him, he was able to square on him. Any other tackle, and that would have been a TFL. Again, I thought AD must have taken the play off. I decided to shut up about Vollmer for a while because there was no way he was as physically rare as I was seeing him.

Then, the season started. He's proving that I may have been right about the guy. I don't really get into the combine numbers, measurables, and things like that. I can't really put a tangible mark on who he is comparable to. Having said that, I do look at players quite closely, and I feel that I have a pretty balanced and educated eye. I look at the footwork, I look at the leverage, I look at the technique, I look for them downfield when they leave the frame. I am not being hyperbolic when I say what I see from Vollmer is every bit as impressive as '08 Clady, if not more. What I see in Vollmer is something that I have never seen before, period. I know it's early, but strictly from this small sample, I am comfortable in saying that he can be as good as he wants to be. When I say that, I mean a precedent setter.

Thanks for the details. I sure hope you're right.

 

[BelichickFan]

One thing is for sure, we have the DBs to play with Peyton like we haven't had for a long time. With Butler, Bodden, Springs and Wilhite we have 4 CB who can play. Last year's CB for this game were Hobbs, Wheatley (who got hurt early) and Deltha O'Neal. With Meriweather, McGowan and Chung we have 3 safeties who can do a lot more than last year's Meriweather and Sanders. Sanders has gone from #2 to #4. Last year's CB had only one who would make this year's active roster and Hobbs would struggle to get on the field).

I can't talk Xs and Os like jays52 but when you look at 2004 and how they swapped Harrison and Law in the playoffs, we now have 7 legit DBs who can be moved around. Last year we had Meriweather and maybe Hobbs; in other words, we had nothing.

Edit - I know we had Wilhite last year but he hadn't played at this point, he has come back a better player.

 

[BradyManny]

One thing is for sure, we have the DBs to play with Peyton like we haven't had for a long time. With Butler, Bodden, Springs and Wilhite we have 4 CB who can play. Last year's CB for this game were Hobbs, Wheatley (who got hurt early) and Deltha O'Neal. With Meriweather, McGowan and Chung we have 3 safeties who can do a lot more than last year's Meriweather and Sanders. Sanders has gone from #2 to #4. Last year's CB had only one who would make this year's active roster and Hobbs would struggle to get on the field).

I can't talk Xs and Os like jays52 but when you look at 2004 and how they swapped Harrison and Law in the playoffs, we now have 7 legit DBs who can be moved around. Last year we had Meriweather and maybe Hobbs; in other words, we had nothing.

Edit - I know we had Wilhite last year but he hadn't played at this point, he has come back a better player.

Agreed. And the DBs are versatile with different skillsets. In Bodden, we have a physical corner we could put man on Wayne. And in Butler, we have a quick corner who looks like he can really make up a cushion in a hurry. Can't say I have much of a read on Springs yet so far like I do those two guys, I wonder how he'll factor in - if at all - come Sunday.