Prisco: Solder will start right away

[Synovia]

Reportedly.

If they're severe enough to keep him from being a solid contributor as a rookie then he's not a particularly good draft pick-a middle of the first round offensive lineman really needs to start from day one to be worth the pick.

Not at all.


If you've got 2 choices (say Solder, who is a bit raw, and say Carimi) and Carimi is going to start from day one, and be Matt Light, and the other guy is going to take 10 games before he starts, and is going to be Jonathon Ogden, you take Ogden. And your happy about it.


A high draft pick is a big investment in the franchise. You don't make them based on what happens in the first 6 games of the first year of the contract.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's clearly a matter of opinion. If you think using number 17 on a non-QB player who doesn't contribute as a rookie is a good use of that pick, bully for you.

I can't think of a single reason that would justify your position. You don't draft for one season. You draft to fill holes for years. Would it be great if the guy was ready to start tomorrow? Sure it would. Does it mean the pick is a bad one if he's not a "solid contributor" out of the box? Of course not.

Hell, in a perfect world, this guy won't see the field all year, except for some toe-dipping experience.

 

[Shelterdog]

I can't think of a single reason that would justify your position.

Think harder then.

A pick is a good pick or a bad pick depending on how they perform relative to the expected value of that pick.

If you look at the expected value teams get when the spend a middle of the first round pick on a tackle, they're usually getting a guy who can start from day one. About 80% of tackles drafted between 12 and 22 over the past 20 years have been day one starters. You only have the guy under contract for five years so if they don't play as rookies you've already lost 20% of their value.

Hypothetically a guy who couldn't start as a rookie and turned into Anthony Munoz as a second year player would probably be worth the pick but that just hasn't happened with first round tackles.

 

[Deus Irae]

Think harder then.

A pick is a good pick or a bad pick depending on how they perform relative to the expected value of that pick.

If you look at the expected value teams get when the spend a middle of the first round pick on a tackle, they're usually getting a guy who can start from day one. About 80% of tackles drafted between 12 and 22 over the past 20 years have been day one starters. You only have the guy under contract for five years so if they don't play as rookies you've already lost 20% of their value.

Hypothetically a guy who couldn't start as a rookie and turned into Anthony Munoz as a second year player would probably be worth the pick but that just hasn't happened with first round tackles.

Just going back to 2009, Oher was drafted to play LT. He didn't get the job, starting at RT. These quys only get plugged right in if there's not talent at the position already.

 

[Richard Camembert]

If you are asking whether I consider a starting LT for 2011 more important than a starting OLB, I'll vote LT every time this year and every year. It is instructive that belichick drafted a LT in the first instead of an OLB.

I'd much rather upgrade starting LT LeVoir (with maneri as backup) than one of our OLB's.

But then, we each have our own priorities.

BB said as much during his day one presser, that LT is one position with sufficient value to justify a number one pick. I mean, OL play over 1000 plays a year. OLB might play what, 650?

 

[RobertWeathers]

BB said as much during his day one presser, that LT is one position with sufficient value to justify a number one pick. I mean, OL play over 1000 plays a year. OLB might play what, 650?

If the Pats sat at #1 pick in the draft and Lawrence Taylor was available, BB would take him. It's all about impacting a game.

Keeping Brady's jersey clean has direct impact on the game.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Final draft grades: Bucs, Giants, Texans earn top marks - NFL - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

He likes Dowling but not Vereen.

None of what he wrote looks like a lot of research went into it. Presumably, he's aggregating other folks' judgments.

"Illness issues" is a hell of a euphemism for cancer. I also pretty much assumed that Solder would start as well. Granted, he has technique issues and whatnot, but it's pretty much standard for first-round OTs, isn't it? Besides, if Light doesn't get signed, it's not like we'll have much choice.

 

[Synovia]

Think harder then.

A pick is a good pick or a bad pick depending on how they perform relative to the expected value of that pick.

If you look at the expected value teams get when the spend a middle of the first round pick on a tackle, they're usually getting a guy who can start from day one. About 80% of tackles drafted between 12 and 22 over the past 20 years have been day one starters. You only have the guy under contract for five years so if they don't play as rookies you've already lost 20% of their value.

Hypothetically a guy who couldn't start as a rookie and turned into Anthony Munoz as a second year player would probably be worth the pick but that just hasn't happened with first round tackles.

Again, you do not spend a top of the first round pick based on what a guy is going in the first 10 games of his career.

The value in this sort of pick isn't just in the first contract, in fact, once you get up to about 15 in the draft, these guys are getting paid as starters anyways. The value is that you have a chance to fill a very important hole for 10 years.

Teams draft quarterbacks that high without expecting them to play the first 2 or 3 YEARS.

 

[LetsGoPats36]

As a Sun Devil fan, I don't have fond memories of Vereen. That's a good thing now, though. I was real pumped when we picked him. Good player.

 

[LetsGoPats36]

Also... Pete Prisco is, and always will be, a dipsh*t.

 

[ATippett56]

What if that 3 million was the difference between Ninkovich and Ray Edwards as a starting OLB?

It's hard to say how much a short term veteran should be paid without having any idea of what the salary cap rules and the Pats' budget will be like next year.

You cut Tully Banta-Cain whose base salary is $2.3 million in 2011.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2011 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

 

[Synovia]

You cut Tully Banta-Cain whose base salary is $2.3 million in 2011.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2011 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

TBC played 80% of the snaps pretty much every game. If they're gonna cut a LB, it'll be Fletcher, who played about 10 snaps a game, or Ninkovich, who lost a big chunk of playing time to Moore.

 

[ATippett56]

TBC played 80% of the snaps pretty much every game. If they're gonna cut a LB, it'll be Fletcher, who played about 10 snaps a game, or Ninkovich, who lost a big chunk of playing time to Moore.

Tully Banta-Cain is a liability against the run. Tully Banta-Cain also turns 31 years of age prior to the start of the season, so he is no spring chicken. His salary cap charge is $4.5 million this year and last season produced only five quarterback sacks as a one trick pony. Hopefully, Jermaine Cunningham develops into a full time starting 3-4 outside linebacker for the New England Patriots defense.

 

[Shelterdog]

Again, you do not spend a top of the first round pick based on what a guy is going in the first 10 games of his career.

The value in this sort of pick isn't just in the first contract, in fact, once you get up to about 15 in the draft, these guys are getting paid as starters anyways. The value is that you have a chance to fill a very important hole for 10 years.

Teams draft quarterbacks that high without expecting them to play the first 2 or 3 YEARS.

QB are different but QBs picked in the top twenty normally start by year two.

The value of a first rounder is absolutely the first contract; you can't control if you're keeping the guy for the second contract.

Picks 10-20 in the NFL draft make a lot less than starters by the way, look it up sometime. You'd be shocked.

 

[Shelterdog]

TBC played 80% of the snaps pretty much every game. If they're gonna cut a LB, it'll be Fletcher, who played about 10 snaps a game, or Ninkovich, who lost a big chunk of playing time to Moore.

If they cut a linebacker it's TBC, who's old, slow, not a ST contributor, not good against the run, and kind of overpaid.

 

[RobertWeathers]

TBC played 80% of the snaps pretty much every game. If they're gonna cut a LB, it'll be Fletcher, who played about 10 snaps a game, or Ninkovich, who lost a big chunk of playing time to Moore.

Fletcher is cheaper and has more upside, Synovia. TBC's play dipped last year a bit.

 

[Synovia]

Fletcher is cheaper and has more upside, Synovia. TBC's play dipped last year a bit.

I agree his play dipped, but his play TIME didn't. He was playing 75% of the snaps.

 

[Patspsycho]

TBC played 80% of the snaps pretty much every game. If they're gonna cut a LB, it'll be Fletcher, who played about 10 snaps a game, or Ninkovich, who lost a big chunk of playing time to Moore.

Fletcher will not be cut. He is an invaluable 4th ILB and may even supplant Guyton in passing downs. The times I've seen him, he's rarely out of position and almost never makes mistakes. On top of which he is a ST.

 

[AzPatsFan]

i dont get why people think vereen was a weak pick. look at the other runningbacks picked right next to vereen and they early play a soft game (leshoure) or they have fumbling issues daniel thomas.

Vereen is a versatile back much like Woodhead, but vereen tight package who is elusive and strong (with the most weight lifting reps out of all RBs in the draft).

i actually really liked the Vereen pick, especially in the patriots offense where catching the ball makes you a huge threat.

i wouldn't be surprised if the patriots targeted vereen specifically because of his pass catching ability.

I like the pick of both Vereen and Ridley, Mr. Outside and Mr. Inside. Both of them have NEVER FUMBLED in their careers. Ridley is a power back, with 4 years of platooning service, but only one year of heavy mileage and a 1200 yard season. I like low mileage, especially on power backs.

Verene is a do-everything back good for 1200 yards/year. He can catch, almost like a WR, and like Ridley does NOT FUMBLE.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

I like the pick of both Vereen and Ridley, Mr. Outside and Mr. Inside. Both of them have NEVER FUMBLED in their careers. Ridley is a power back, with 4 years of platooning service, but only one year of heavy mileage and a 1200 yard season. I like low mileage, especially on power backs.

Verene is a do-everything back good for 1200 yards/year. He can catch, almost like a WR, and like Ridley does NOT FUMBLE.

A must to stay out of BB's doghouse as LoMo can attest