Pregame analysis

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17356394&BRD=1710&PAG=740&dept_id=353124&rfi=6

OVERALL ANALYSIS The Bills gave New England all it could handle in Week 1 and will be geared up playing at home for the first time in three weeks. However, it's still hard to pick against the Patriots, who are the more talented and proven team and have owned Buffalo in recent years. Look for Dillon and Maroney to again have productive afternoons as New England's potent ground game eventually wears down the Bills' undersized defense. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 21, Bills 17

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://realgmfootball.com/src_encroachment/40/20061020/football_meteorology_for_week_7/

New England at Buffalo: The weather was the big bad news in Buffalo all week, but it obscured two other recent developments: J.P. Losman morphed back into the dreaded Rob Johnson clone he was most of last season, and their talented CBs once again badly struggled with the size of opposing WRs. Both their rookie safeties, Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson, look like legit players, but Tom Brady & Co. know how to pick apart a youthful defense. The Patriots locked up Cincinnati’s potent offense, and they’ll do even better against a Bills team with a panicky QB and inferior WRs. New England rolls 24-10.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://www.telegram.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061020/NEWS/610200441/1009/SPORTS

It was a normal Thursday for the Patriots, meaning they devoted part of practice yesterday to third-down situations.

“Hopefully we can make some improvements there,†coach Bill Belichick said. “That would help our football team, if we could do a better job in that situation.â€

The Patriots have converted 39.4 percent of the time on third down (28 of 71), a figure that’s tied for 11th in the NFL. The numbers are remarkably similar for the defense (27 of 70, 38.6 percent), but the ranking is much lower at 20th.

The Bills, who host the Patriots on Sunday, check in 30th on offense with a not-so-successful rate of 27.8 percent.

They’ve done much better defensively, ranking 12th while holding their ground 65.8 percent of the time.

In the first meeting between the two teams, the Patriots rallied for a 19-17 victory.

One of the keys to the comeback was Buffalo going 0 for 4 on third down in the second half.

 

[SoCal Bong]

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/gamecenter/preview/NFL_20061022_NE@BUF

The New England Patriots again have taken control of the AFC East. They just have not been very dominant in doing so.

New England looks to improve to 4-0 against divisional opponents when it returns from its bye week to face the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Patriots (4-1) have moved into position to win a fourth consecutive division title and fifth in six years, leading the New York Jets by 1 1/2 games and third-place Buffalo (2-4) by two games. New England already has defeated each of its division rivals once, but those three wins were by an average of only 6.3 points.

The latest of those victories was a 20-10 win over the last-place Miami Dolphins on Oct. 8. The Patriots, though, had only 213 yards of total offense, and could not take control of the game until Tom Brady's touchdown pass to Heath Evans with 9:47 to play gave them a 10-point lead.

Still, New England can clinch a winning record within the AFC East if it beats the Bills on Sunday.

"You can't ignore it," Patriots linebacker Rosevelt Colvin said. "We had the opportunity to play three of the teams in our division and we've won those three games. Well, OK. The playoffs don't start tomorrow. If they did, then yeah, we'd be in great position, but they don't."

Colvin and the rest of the defense have been largely responsible for New England's strong start. The Patriots have allowed seven touchdowns in five games, have not given up more than 17 points in a game this season and have held three opponents to fewer than 300 yards of total offense.

Buffalo managed 240 yards of offense - only 74 in the second half - at New England in a 19-17 defeat on Sept. 10 to open the season. The Bills led 17-7 at halftime, but the Patriots held them scoreless after the break and rallied for the win.

"You can tell why they have won three of the last five Super Bowls," Bills defensive end Aaron Schobel said of the Patriots after that contest. "They know how to finish games."

Running backs Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon combined for 159 of New England's 183 rushing yards against the Bills. They have been a potent combination all season, with Maroney gaining 332 yards with three touchdowns, Dillon adding 281 yards and two scores, and both backs averaging more than four yards per carry.

The Patriots rushing offense is averaging 139 yards per game, sixth in the NFL.

Brady, meanwhile, continues to search for rhythm with a group of wide receivers in which veteran Troy Brown is the only holdover from last season. Brady completed 11 of 23 passes for 163 yards, a TD and an interception in the Sept. 10 meeting with Buffalo.

He had two touchdown passes in the victory over Miami heading into last week's bye, but also threw for a season-low 140 yards. Tight end Benjamin Watson leads all Patriots with only 16 receptions, while Brown's 15 catches are the most among the team's wideouts.

"We didn't play as well as an offense as we would have liked, but we're playing some good situational football," Brady said after beating the Dolphins. "We're finishing the games when we needed to, making critical plays."

Brady is 10-1 as a starter in his career against Buffalo - his most wins over any opponent. New England has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with the Bills, the lone exception a 31-0 loss at Ralph Wilson Stadium to open the 2003 season.

Buffalo alternated wins and losses in its first four games of the season, but has dropped consecutive road games to NFC North opponents behind a sputtering offense. After gaining a season-low 145 total yards in a 40-7 defeat at undefeated Chicago on Oct. 8, the Bills mustered 242 yards of offense last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to previously winless Detroit.

"It's disturbing," said receiver Peerless Price, who caught four passes for 27 yards against Detroit. "To me, personally, it's more disturbing than losing to Chicago. Chicago just beat us. This game, we felt like we had opportunities to make plays and win. And we didn't do it."

Turnovers have plagued the Bills. Buffalo has 11 giveaways in three losses, and has not turned the ball over in any of its three wins. Quarterback J.P. Losman has accounted four five of the team's eight turnovers - four interceptions and a fumble - in the last two games.

The defense also has struggled, particularly against the run. Buffalo gave up a season-high 397 yards of offense against the Lions, and has allowed a total of 291 rushing yards over the last two weeks.

"It's just that something's not there. Something's not quite fitting," defensive end Chris Kelsay said.

In an effort to bolster its defensive line, Buffalo acquired end Anthony Hargrove from the St. Louis Rams on Monday in exchange for a fifth-round draft pick. Hargrove, whom St. Louis drafted in the third round in 2004, had 6 1/2 sacks last season.

"He's a young player so he's got a lot of future we hope in front of him, and a good one," said Bills coach **** Jauron. "And we think he'll fit into a rotation for us."

 

[jct]

Last year we were buried in over 10M in dead money on a much smaller cap.
Additionally we ended up with 16 season ending injuries (IR) and other costly injuries (Bruschi and Seymour).
So far this year, during the season we have no IR losses and our dead money has about 1/3 the effect of last year.
Basically what I'm saying is these factors are really helping us so far.

Buffalo is a tough defensive team.
They play us tough and they will be at home.
I expect a very hard fought victory.
Hopefully we continue to stay relatively healthy and watch other teams suffer attrition and injury losses.
With our schedule we have a good chance of earning a postseason bye.

What I want to see most is Colvin and Vrabel play better.
I'd like to see Jackson show up and catch a few balls.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Even now the latest import, Jabbar Gaffney, has less than ten days acquaintance with the QB and playbook.

What the Patriots offense is now, and what it will be in game 12, or entering the playoffs in game 17, is a quite, quite different thing. Now some don't beleive that is possible, but Bill Belichick teams have always adopted and added new players each year. Historically, they have not been as sharp in the early portions of the season as the newcomers took time to be assimilated. Some times the newcomerw workout, sometimes they don't. Look at Phifer, Hamilton, and Cox as guys who did, and Starks and Martin and Beisel as ones who didn't.

This year the ones who are/have succeeded are O'Calaghan, Gostkowski, and Seau; while Tebucky, Gardner and Mitchell were looking good before injury/IR. The only failure so far is Eric Warfield. All the WR imports are still in question, none is a certain failure, and Gabriel from indications, looks to be heading for success.

The weather should make this a low scoring affair, and the Patriots overall talent level should result in a Win. I think the miserable weather will hurt both passing games, but moreso the Bills; as the Pats don't rely on it as much at this point.

 

[shmessy]

Even now the latest import, Jabbar Gaffney, has less than ten days acquaintance with the QB and playbook.

What the Patriots offense is now, and what it will be in game 12, or entering the playoffs in game 17, is a quite, quite different thing. Now some don't beleive that is possible, but Bill Belichick teams have always adopted and added new players each year. Historically, they have not been as sharp in the early portions of the season as the newcomers took time to be assimilated. Some times the newcomerw workout, sometimes they don't. Look at Phifer, Hamilton, and Cox as guys who did, and Starks and Martin and Beisel as ones who didn't.

This year the ones who are/have succeeded are O'Calaghan, Gostkowski, and Seau; while Tebucky, Gardner and Mitchell were looking good before injury/IR. The only failure so far is Eric Warfield. All the WR imports are still in question, none is a certain failure, and Gabriel from indications, looks to be heading for success.

The weather should make this a low scoring affair, and the Patriots overall talent level should result in a Win. I think the miserable weather will hurt both passing games, but moreso the Bills; as the Pats don't rely on it as much at this point.

O'Callaghan and Gostkowski aren't FA imports.

 

[Fencer]

However, if yu had used a simple play action pass play on first down, it more than likely would have worked and you , more than likely, had a second down situation which your offense could control,

So when BB said that play action is something one uses mainly for longer routes, you think he was just plain wrong?

 

[RayClay]

“Hopefully we can make some improvements there,†coach Bill Belichick said. “That would help our football team, if we could do a better job in that situation.†REFERRING TO THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS


Dear Coach:

As you know, and most of us too, that the third down situaltion usually is determined by what happens on first and second downs.

For example, if yu havent been able to run the ball all day long, and then you call two straight running plays into the line, the odds are that you will have a "third and long" situation in which the defense , sort of, wouldnt you say, has the distinct advantage.

If you go back to pass, they know its coming and will be prepared, in most cases, for it, forcing the third down play to fail.

However, if yu had used a simple play action pass play on first down, it more than likely would have worked and you , more than likely, had a second down situation which your offense could control, pass or run, keeping the defense guessing...and then, worst case scenario, a third down and short yardage which would be much more favorable and, again in all probability, make the third down success rate much higher.

On the other hand, if the first down play is a running play, and its successful, for say 7 or 8 yards, why do it again and possibly risk a loss (which happens to us on many occasion) instead of maybe another play action, or a screen, or a little quick slant.....on 2nd down....

Probabloy would be more successful than what we have seen thus far, causing that third down success that we have not had, that you would like to improve on.

Talk to your little boy offensive coordinater coach, perhaps a good tongue lashing is in order.

As you have said, we can not continue to go on with this ridiculous third down failure.

Just trying to help.

Your good buddy, NEM.

If you throw 2 incomplete passes, you're guaranteed to have a third and long.

Maroney 4.3 Faulk 4.3 Dillon 4.1

If any of our RBs run for their average on 1st down, we have a second and less than 6.

Forget third down, what an advantage to have a pass/run option on second down.

It's a great time to go for the bomb or extrapolating have 3rd and 1 1/2 merely by having three "average" runs.

I think You're right this time NEM. The running game is the key to staying out of 3rd and longs.

 

[BrianPat]

This is an interesting analysis, more or less says " The Bills shouldn't bother showing up ! "

http://bills.scout.com/2/581614.html

 

[D-cleater]

This does stand to be a hard fought game, but if we blow them out whilecoming off the bye, I think the burst in confidence could possibly carry us through the middle of the season as the passing game continues to improve, or struggles to improve, either way.

However, after watching the replay of Buffalo's game against Detriot, I see Dillon/Maroney combining for 35 carries. As much as we'd all like to see a big game from *any* of the receivers , Buffalo's main weakness is stopping the run and thats what we're going to exploit.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

This is an interesting analysis, more or less says " The Bills shouldn't bother showing up ! "

http://bills.scout.com/2/581614.html

Nice find Brian - it almost makes you feel sorry for the Bills that they have such a supportive fan.