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Predictions on who will or won't be back

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fencer, Jan 23, 2013.

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  1. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    What I think will happen, as separate as possible from what I think should happen:


    • Talib will be back. Too obvious a fit.
    • Arrington will be back, on the theory that he's consistently good as slot CB and intermittently good as #2 outside CB. He won't command the big money elsewhere he might have gotten a year ago.
    • Welker will walk, for maximum money elsewhere, as the security blanket for a second-tier QB and for the GM who paid that QB.
    • Woodhead will walk for maximum money elsewhere, in our most gracious FA departure since David Givens'.
    • Edelman will be back. (That's pretty obvious if Welker goes.)
    • Vollmer will stay. This is a reversal of my previous opinion that he will leave for LT money elsewhere, but I now think there will be too many question marks hanging over his health for him to get it.
    • Chung of course will not be back.
    • There won't be any great offers for Mallett.
    What are your thoughts?
  2. bigballas

    bigballas Rookie

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    agree with most except i think Woody stays. No one is really going to offer him much more and he specializes in NE offense.
  3. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Stay: Arrington, Edelman
    Go: Welker, Woodhead, Vollmer, Chung

    I'm torn on Talib. I don't know if it will be him or someone else, but they'll find a CB somewhere.
  4. DocHoliday

    DocHoliday Rookie

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    I can't bear the thought of Woodhead leaving.

    The only guy that was still playing hard in the SB in the fourth quarter.

    Just can't see Woody, Vereen, and Demps all staying unless Vereen or Demps converts to WR.
  5. eom

    eom Rookie

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    it's hard to imagine all those guys staying unless they really want to be here and nowhere else.
    I just can't see the pats outbidding the market.

    woody won't command much, but I doubt the pats want to pay him much.
    arrington is a slot corner here, but could get starting money elsewhere, as corners are always in demand.
    talib is just as likely to sign anywhere, and I can't see the pats throwing money at him.
    and vollmer is another one --- if they were going to pay him, couldn't they have already extended him?
    some team will make vollmer a fat offer, I think.
  6. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I'm not nearly as sure as you are regarding Talib.

    His play, health, and past concerns haven't really been answered enough to warrant a multi-year deal here, unless he decides to take a one-year prove it deal or one with incentives galore. If he is offered a 2-3 yr deal here, it will certainly be for no more than about 5-6 million per year, so he'd have to take somewhat of a team friendly, hometown discount.

    A week or so ago, it sounded like that was a possibility. The recent comments Monday afternoon were nowhere near as optimistic, and he used the past tense quite a lot when speaking of the team itself and his potential future here.

    One also has to take into acct the fact that N.England is a very good place to come to showcase yourself and get back in the NFL teams' good graces. It draws an awful lot of attention to you, the players get to play in some of the biggest showcase games of the season in primetime (3x in the regular season, not to mention CBS' showcase games of the week against Indy and the regular season finale vs Miami). That's 5 primetime games out of his 6-7 games here in the regular season, + the 2 playoff games where the whole country watched or heard about him and the newly rejuvenated defense that all the mediots claimed was solely due to Talib's presence.

    The real fans seem to know the truth, and the fact that he really only played in about 1/2 of the snaps due to not being able to stay healthy. Regardless, he went from the outhouse to the penthouse in approx. a month or so.

    I'm guessing that he and his agent will take full advantage of this opportunity based on common sense and his past indicators, but I certainly hope that he stays. If he does, Belichick and the front office will be damn cautious with his contract, so it's basically all up to him. In my opinion, he just doesn't seem to be the kind of guy that is going to stay based on comraderie and the team concept, but again...I hope that I am wrong.
  7. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I do not expect Woodhead to go. Other than that I agree, except that Vollmer might cost a bit more than you think.

  8. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I think that Edelman stays, Vollmer goes to another team for better money, Chung is no longer wanted here so he goes, Woodhead is 50/50, Talib is about 70/30 that he goes somewhere else for better money/longer term pact, Arrington stays due to your reasoning of being able to be more effective in the slot but also providing outside starter capability, and finally...Welker stays after being initially franchised again, only this time they agree to a 2-3 year deal prior to the middle of July.
  9. eom

    eom Rookie

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    assuming demps makes the roster -- 5 rb next year?
  10. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    My argument for Talib staying pretty much boils down to:

    • He's worth modestly more here than elsewhere, because of need and because he seems more likely to behave in a high-quality program.
    • Most guys would accept a modest discount to say with the Patriots.
    • The first two points are enough to balance the Pats' insistence that expensive guys accept some level of discount versus their value to the Pats.
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I think that someone else will take the risk of offering Vollmer more than NE is willing to pay also.

    When healthy he is one of the better tackles in the game, and I agree that he ends up leaving.

    I think that we target another tackle in the first 4 rounds of the draft (trading out/down to acquire additional picks potentially for the loss of the Talib pick in round 4), and also add another later round guy or UDFA. I also think that they acquire a lower level tackle in the free agency market or via another teams cuts in TC, if not both.

    They also may be fine with exploring one of our own at the position too for next season, while one or more of the new players is put into the Dante training academy for young stud offensive lineman. Either way, there are other options there in my opinion, especially at a position where many will tend to overpay and it would cost too much to keep.
  12. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    How much they think Demps can play on offense will definitely affect things, but I have a really hard time rationalizing 5 roster spots when the Pats average fewer than 1 halfback on the field per snap.

    It's like people who have tons and tons of pairs of shoes. It's good to have options, but you're still only using one at a time.
  13. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    That kind of thing was my previous opinion, and I wouldn't be shocked if it still plays out that way.

    But I'm guessing that between Vollmer's inconsistency and his not-that-great level of left tackle work, he'll be disappointed in free agency (but of course make scads of money even so).
  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm fine with a free agent OT acquisition, but we haven't done well getting fa OT's lately.


  15. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Just to counter that and play devil's advocate (not meaning to sound argumentative):

    --He came here and showed potential, but that potential was not entirely reached, and there are still many unanswered questions surrounding him in my opinion. Maybe not for a shorter pact, but enough for a market money one on a longer 3-4 yr deal.

    --The thought that he and his agent will use this high-profile opportunity to immediately jump on a market value second contract is a compelling one, and one that the majority of players would instantly take advantage of, particularly ones who have had a second rising placed on a silver platter like Talib.

    --There were many variables that allowed the progress of the secondary, so Belichick will have to assess those to make the decision about his worth. We saw quite a change/removal of players at different positions and new players added at other ones, so the improvement is not 100% entirely based on Talib alone, although his presence certainly helps to keep that system in place.

    --Belichick typically has not agreed to what the market value for CB's dictate, and it's hard to tell if history will be any kind of indicator in this instance or not?

    --Any potential draft or FA moves will also come into play when assessing his value and his possibility of being retained. We've seen Belichick save money in many of these instances before, and there is supposedly a deeper safety class this year, not to mention good FA's. While the safety situation doesn't necessarily dictate keeping Talib or not, it may come into play, depending upon what Belichick wants to do with the overall alignment of the secondary. I for one, would much rather keep DMcC at safety.
  16. serifyn

    serifyn Rookie

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    Welker -- Franchise Tagged at 11 million or whatever, no deal until next year so we can see whether we want Welker or Ballard in 2014, we'll see them both in contract years in 2013, You cannot afford to lose Welker, nobody is able to replace his reliability and protection, he is a tough SOB who play though alot, he deserves the contract, but will have to settle for another huge payday instead.

    Vollmer -- signed to whatever the market bears regardless of injury history, nobody else be able to protect Brady as well and this is your #1 Priority now.

    Talib -- He will be signed, but not for the monster contract everyone is expecting, he was basically traded out of Tampa Bay for a bag of balls and was injured far too often to receive a gigantic contract. I believe that The Patriots have a great Rehab program however and will be able to maximize his performance and get him healthy. It is the perfect fit and i can't see some mystery team dropping more money on him than he is worth to us. Decent Incentive-Laden multi-year contract.

    Arrington -- He had a down year and his offer will reflect that, he is great 3rd corner who will be back for whatever we give him.

    Edelman -- Hard to imagine he commands too much money with his injury history and lack of consistant productivity, but he is versatile and explosive, he is a weapon on offense who Mcdaniels really likes playing with, based on that and the fact that he knows our system so well, i think he is back.

    Chung -- Never really lived up to his potential, will Gregory, Mccourty and Wilson coming back in a story safety class, i think it spells the end for chung's days here. I could potentially see him back as hes another 'buy low' candidate' but i think he will want to start elsewhere, he would only be a backup here going forward.

    Woodhead -- Really an interesting decision here. Our RB committee is really strong right now with Ridley showing up big, Vereen coming on late and Bolden showing good moves early, however, like Hernandez and Edelman, Woodhead is kind of a weapon and he is most in the mold of Kevin Faulk.

    Woodhead is most valuable in a system like ours, but that doesn't mean someone like the packers wouldn't be interested in a guy like him.

    I think he gets brought back unless someone shows up with a huge offer for him.


    ------

    I think the Patriots have a good core, and next year, our rookies should be even better, we should concentrate on resigning most of our free agents and find the rest through the draft.
  17. Bhelmet

    Bhelmet Rookie

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    The only one I totally agree with is we will not get any great offers for Mallett. I will not say you are wrong on the rest of the predictions, I just have no idea. Mallett has done nothing to garner any compensation that will be better than keeping him here to learn another year. The longer he is here to learn from Brady and show his skills (he does have them - it is a matter of whether he is developing them) the more value he gets us. He could be our QB of the future or he could possibly get us more than Cassell. I just do not know, yet. I just cannot see anyone giving us more than a 3rd for him - and that includes Cleveland - who still have 2 QB's that cost them a lot. I just cannot find the evidence of Mallett's play that makes him worthy of more than what we have paid. BB has a better idea, so I will trust him on the decision. I think the Armstead deal took a lot of pressure off the draft this year. I think that keeps Mallett here - barring any ridiculous offer IF someone makes it.
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2013
  18. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

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    welker - gone
    edelman - will be resigned to a minimum.....the rest will be up to whether he makes the team
    vollmer - stays
    woodhead - gone......his plays are going to vereen.
    fells - gone
    hooman - stays
    talib - stays
    chung - gone
    arrington - gone
    scott - stays
    pryor - gone
  19. Spiral

    Spiral PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think Lloyd will be back, and he may be the first one to go. Here's why:

    In 2013, he's due a $3M option bonus, plus $1.9M in salary. Throw in the usual $100k workout bonus, and that's $5M in new money. Paying the option bonus would virtually guarantee his roster spot in 2013 and 2014. His 2012 performance doesn't justify that kind of money. I'm guessing the option bonus is due on or near the start of the league year, so I think he may be gone by then.
  20. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    Don't really want him back.
  21. Bhelmet

    Bhelmet Rookie

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    I hadn't thought about Lloyd leaving. I think a lot of it will depend upon who they can replace him with. Who that would be, I do not know.
  22. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Rookie

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    My feeling is everyone's back but Arrington, Fells, Pryor and Chung.

    Woodhead and Edelman aren't gonna get the money everyone's thinking, and Welker is not getting $10 million anywhere. Let's not fool ourselves.
  23. olschool

    olschool Rookie

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    Also, look for a surprise trade. Maybe even Mankins, who hasn't really delivered on his huge contract. When he was out this year his back-ups performed well for a lot less money.

    BB doesn't have many quality draft picks this year, and it'll take a big trade to get some.
  24. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Here is my take:

    welker - I don't see us letting him go. Franchised and long term deal worked out.

    edelman - He might decide to go for a bigger role but I think he would be wise to stay and continue what he has started. It took him four years to get real reps with this team (injuries slowed him down) but if he goes elsewhere and fails it is over for him if signs for a year or two here I think another team would give him one more shot after that. If the money is right he is out Punt returner and great depth at the WR position.

    vollmer - This is a tough one as I think it comes down purely to money as he likely will get a large deal from someone but I think that someone could be us depending on what we think of Cannon. If they think Cannon can be a starter than it would be wise to use the money elsewhere and bring in cheaper depth if they dont think Cannon can start than they are as likely as any to pay him top dollar as we need Brady properly protected.

    woodhead - Another tough one as he has been a perfect Patriot and no reason not to want him back except that we have 4 other RBs and while he wont get ridiculous money I think it will be just a touch to high considering what else we have.

    hooman - stays - No reason not to. We will likely carry 4 again and he has shown to be a versatile and effective player for us. Ballard will be TE3 and Hooman TE4 with maybe a late round TE to compete with him.

    talib - Another tough one but I think our need at CB, his time here, plus what the actual market will be for a troubled CB means we get the right price for him. And I think this gets done before FAency as both sides will see the logic.

    chung - I think we move on clearly he was phased out and he will obviously want another shot at starting. I see him going to Philly.

    arrington - I would be OK with bringing him back to be Nickle but we would need to find another CB for depth as I have no faith in him outside. In the end I think he would want a bigger role and another team would be willing to try. He wont get huge money but I think this is more about his role.

    scott - This could either way. I think he proved to be a good back up and I see no reason we wouldn't bring him back but he might find better out in the market. Not sure where Cunningham plays into this as up until the suspension he was clearly behind Cunningham but if he passed him in the coaches eye I think that could be enough for him to like his role here.

    pryor - no reason to bring back a player who cant play due to health.

    As to the possibility of Lloyd being cut before the Roster bonus that would seem like a reasonable possibility but I think Lloyd showed just enough to still be worth it but this is more about continuity and depth. Above I assumed Welker would be back and with the TEs being healthy to start the year you really need very little by way of WR help. My plan would then be to draft a young kid with blazing speed to be the deep threat and being a rookie I think I would prefer to have a few players who have played with Tom. Plus he adds a level of balance to the team by where he attacks the D (outside the numbers in the intermediate area not overlapping Wes and Hernadez much).

    I think you are doing your offense the best by having Wes, Lloyd, Edelman, Rookie WR. If you try and save on Wes or lloyd you have to replace them and you would practically be left with WRs with no experience working with Tom worked in 07 but what are the chances of finding that kind of skill again? I would assume stick with status quo and try and add the speedy deep threat as cheaply as possible and rely on health and Ballard to make the passing game better (which realistically you cant get much better we are talking more balanced and deeper not neccessarily more production).
  25. resdubwhite

    resdubwhite Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    Would it cost the Pats too much in 2013 cap money to trade him? I was thinking Maybe Spikes going (not that I want it to happen) only because they may not be able to afford to keep him in 2014. Actually, forget it. thats a silly notion.
  26. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

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    couldn't find the question "what does JackBauer want?' anywhere
  27. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    True. I just felt like goading you into revealing some more of your inner d-bag.
  28. Triumph

    Triumph Rookie

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    No to Arrington.

    NE needs to get better here because the likelihood of the 3rd CB pressed into the starting role is so great. Arrington isnt the # 1 or # 2 CB for a reason.

    No to Vollmer

    Hes never been healthy. Investing in him isnt worth the risk.

    No to Chung

    The Pats should just let this mistake expire with no offer. Move on and draft a real Safety who can cover. Its suppose to be a good draft for Safeties.

    No to Hooman

    Ballard will bring more to the table.

    No to Woody

    I wish NE could keep him, but Vereen is the same player and NE needs a big bruiser at RB.

    Yes to Welker

    For the right price though. NE was able to use Edelman and Welker together. One backs up the other should injury occur. Brady wants Wes back and I wouldnt be surprised if he gave up $ so WW could stay.

    Yes to Edelman

    Special teams is better with him. He needs to play less recklessly to save his body.

    Yes to Talib

    Corners are so hard to find and especially for this team. Talib is part of the solution to fixing NE pass defense.
  29. Bhelmet

    Bhelmet Rookie

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    I can agree, but I would keep Woody. Even if that meant losing WW - Woody, Vereen, and Edelman could make up for his production. I think Tom really likes Woody as well.
  30. resdubwhite

    resdubwhite Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    Don't we all.

    fnrr fnrr.
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