Prediction: The Pats' Pass Defense is About to Go From Terrible to Very Good

[PatsFanSince74]

True. But the Pats under BB have a track record of doing so almost every single year under BB. The main exceptions that I can think of are 2009 (very odd year, that team never developed consistency, and clearly drove BB crazy; I attribute it largely to the locker room situation and a lack of leadership) and 2007 (the team started so good that there was nowhere to go but down). I think the odds of the Pats improving over the 2nd half of the season are probably better than that of most NFL teams.

As I said at the beginning of my post, "From your lips to God's ears." I sure hope you are right!

 

[captain stone]

I think our pass rush is solid. Tools for greatness are in place but we are not there yet. All we need is a little boost to our secondary, and soon solid pass rush is all we need to have all-around solid pass defense.

It hasn't been solid, so far, this season. According to Pro Football Reference, the Pats rank
20th in Sacks/Pass Attempt, although 3 teams with better reputations - SF, PitsDirt & Bal'more
- have fewer sacks & S/PA (all w/ 8 games played).
So like most stats, S/PA isn't the be-all & end-all of pass defense analytics; but that number,
coupled with the imperfect eyeball test, suggest that changes need to be made, both in
personnel & scheme, before the pass rush can be considered solid, or at least solid enough.

One relatively easy change to make is getting Wilfork the Feck off the field during obvious passing
situations. Concern has been correctly raised over the last season & 1/2 about his high snap count;
an obvious way to reduce it would be replacing him with one of Cunningham/Scott/Bequette/Francis.
If not then, then when?

Another change is using Hightower as a pass-rusher, or Spikes if he hasn't been already substituted.
Neither of these 2 are known for their coverage skills anyway, so why not blitz them more often?

And finally, different rush looks - overloads, stunts, et al - should be implemented from time to time,
if for nothing more than to give the opposition something more about which to worry.

 

[Pats-Phan]

Here's how I see it:

Reasons for optimism:
1. Talib is an obvious upgrade in talent. The possible domino effect has been stated by others.
2. More blitzing in future games but this is obviously speculation.

Reasons for pessimism:
1. Still not enough talent in the secondary. We have no 3rd CB if McCourty is at FS. If McCourty is at CB we're counting on Chung / Gregory / Wilson at safety which hasn't worked yet. Our longshot saving grace: Cole emerging as a dependable 3rd CB or Arrington playing better against lesser receivers.
2. LB's aren't good in coverage. I think Mayo is under rated in coverage though. long shot saving grace: Chung playing as a coverage LB.

 

[Finnishfan]

It hasn't been solid, so far, this season. According to Pro Football Reference, the Pats rank
20th in Sacks/Pass Attempt, although 3 teams with better reputations - SF, PitsDirt & Bal'more
- have fewer sacks & S/PA (all w/ 8 games played).
So like most stats, S/PA isn't the be-all & end-all of pass defense analytics; but that number,
coupled with the imperfect eyeball test, suggest that changes need to be made, both in
personnel & scheme, before the pass rush can be considered solid, or at least solid enough.

One relatively easy change to make is getting Wilfork the Feck off the field during obvious passing
situations. Concern has been correctly raised over the last season & 1/2 about his high snap count;
an obvious way to reduce it would be replacing him with one of Cunningham/Scott/Bequette/Francis.
If not then, then when?

Another change is using Hightower as a pass-rusher, or Spikes if he hasn't been already substituted.
Neither of these 2 are known for their coverage skills anyway, so why not blitz them more often?

And finally, different rush looks - overloads, stunts, et al - should be implemented from time to time,
if for nothing more than to give the opposition something more about which to worry.

Counting sacks doesnt reveal some things:
1) How many we rush on average vs. what protection schemes the opponents use? (= are the LOS matchups favorable)
2) How fast the opposing QBs generally release the ball? (= how well our coverages hold up, and how much time our DL has)
3) How well do we defend the run? (= setting the edge/pocket is prioritized vs. outside/inside rushing)
4) How easy our schemes are for QBs to read? (= "off guard" element, bad line calls for OL, confusion in playcalling etc.)
5) How well do we contain the QBs and collapse the pocket? (= causes hurries but not sacks and is an alternative "philosophical" approach to pressuring the QB, which is especially effective against mobile QBs who are not great in their pocket movement)

My entire post was meant to illustrate that you cannot separate pass rush from the secondary and the schemes and just judge them all individually through statistics.

The only way to analyze them separately is to look at the tape and see what happens on the LOS/backfield. How well the individuals win their matchups and how much attention they command etc.. Statistics do not reveal that. Tipped balls is the only statistic that comes to mind, that can be credited to only the player who records it.

Some sacks can be results of an outstanding individual effort. But most of them are scheme-related, or related to the players surrounding the individual who gets the sack.

 

[JMarr]

Mayoclinic, I'm right there with you again. One of the first things I said to my football buds minutes after the trade was how much difference one player can make to a certain group. I AM NOT SAYING TALIB'S ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD but think of what Revis does for the Jets DB's and how the whole D plays with more swagger. If Talib plays close to his best the Pat's other DB's will surely become better as group - more confident, more able to play to the top of their abilities. This not only because the more talented of the group will be on the field but also because of a change in disposition.

Agreed. I have no idea how Talib will pan out except that he should immediately add some swagger to a secondary that has had none for awhile now. Sure, he might fall flat, get into trouble, etc., but the potential upside of this move is really really high.

No team can realistically expect to make a run without having at least one above-average corner lining up wide every week--that really shouldn't be too much to ask for. That's why I'm utterly baffled by the folks who are/were against this trade. The less the Pats leave to chance the better, and having out McCourtney, Arrington, Moore, and a rookie as your corners probably wouldn't have gotten it done in the end. Pretty simple. I love how much Belichick wants to win, and win NOW.

 

[JMarr]

Excellent OP.

Add in the domino effect:

If your pass rush is not good enough to get to the QB quick and your secondary is not good enough to give them more time, then you are in a stalemate: you cannot blitz much becouse you cannot afford to take players away from coverage, and on the other hand, you cannot put extra guys on coverage becouse you lack the necessary talent on the DL.

To fix the issue, you dont need to fix both parts of the team entirely. You just need to make both "good enough" so that they work well together. It can mean a great pass rush with a mediocre secondary, or a mediocre pass rush assisted by a great secondary. On the other hand, having both "solid" on the scale is just as good.

I think our pass rush is solid. Tools for greatness are in place but we are not there yet. All we need is a little boost to our secondary, and soon solid pass rush is all we need to have all-around solid pass defense.

Things like coverage schemes, pressure packages and disguise are important, but when you add all things together, it all comes down to two simple things:

1) How much time your pass rush needs?

2) How much time your secondary can give them?

If 2 is smaller than 1, then its a negative chain reaction. One part of your defense always fails to help the other, making both of them look bad in the process.

However if 1 is smaller than 2, then you are in for a positive chain reaction, where one unit helps another to create reputation. And when they have reputation, then no QB will step in front of them feeling all fuzzy and comfortable. That is the key to shutting down clowns like Sanchize.

The secret of good pass defense in one word?

FEAR

(actually DOUBT would be more accurate, but FEAR sounds cooler)

Couldn't agree with you more except for the bolded. Even with the emergence of Jones, our pass rush is still pretty far below average, and that aint gonna change too much this year imo. They had to make this move because there was simply no way to significantly improve the pass rush without resorting to more high risk blitzing and a change in scheme than I think they are comfortable with. Hopefully now the secondary can give the front seven some more freedom and creativity in trying to get to the QB, but I don't see them changing the schemes all that much. Like Mayo, what I do see is simply a secondary with potentially much more cohesiveness with McCourty overseeing things from the FS position, plus a cornerback that can actually cover.

The front seven is fine, but they do need to start limiting Vince's snaps.

 

[DarrylS]

The last two games we played the total NFL starting experience of our defensive backfield was about 5 years total, this cannot be discounted in some of the mistakes that were made.

Bruschki spoke of BB's intolerance for, "error repeaters"... so I suspect that it will change anyways, Talib's talent will also be beneficial.

 

[goheels22002]

The last two games we played the total NFL starting experience of our defensive backfield was about 5 years total, this cannot be discounted in some of the mistakes that were made.

Bruschki spoke of BB's intolerance for, "error repeaters"... so I suspect that it will change anyways, Talib's talent will also be beneficial.

A glimmer of optimism from the fact that the DBs are so inexperienced is that the second year guys have been through the playoffs and the 1st and 2nd year players are getting an accelerated learning experience that, hopefully, makes them better as the season wears on.

Getting Gregory, Talib and Chung on the field brings experience that will be needed, especially against the Texans. Even those guys are relatively young.

What is most disappointing about this secondary is that their speed and athleticism has not overcome mistakes in coverage and technique when adjusting to routes. That suggests we'll be cringing a lot as offensive coordinators increase the number of shots they take down the field.

God help us all.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

after reading this thread I can see what Talib's defensive tactic is gonna be..slather himself in mayo-nnaise and squirt free from the offensive players trying to tackle him on the way to the house....just what the Pats needed for their BLT defense (Brandon Spikes,Kyle Love,Tavon Wilson)...now with a double helping of offensive artery clogging MAYO-nnaise....

The BLT with Mayo defense... it's a mouthful, but it doesn't sound as cloyingly neo-con as "Homeland defense"

 

[PatsFanInVa]

& also... outstanding post MayoClinic. "Reasons for optimism" posts are usually wafer-thin... not because there are no reasons for optimism, but because so many of them are just a list of the names of players the poster likes, and some random appeal to an emotional factor like someone's uncle dying and therefore making him play like Brett Favre when his dad kicked off. This one made way too much sense!

 

[RobertWeathers]

Couldn't agree with you more except for the bolded. Even with the emergence of Jones, our pass rush is still pretty far below average, and that aint gonna change too much this year imo. .

Sacks aren't everything but 19th out of 32 teams is not far below average. Could they generate more hurries,/pressure etc? Sure.

The front seven is fine, but they do need to start limiting Vince's snaps.

Hes their best defenisve player and you want to lessen his # of snaps?

 

[Finnishfan]

Couldn't agree with you more except for the bolded. Even with the emergence of Jones, our pass rush is still pretty far below average, and that aint gonna change too much this year imo. They had to make this move because there was simply no way to significantly improve the pass rush without resorting to more high risk blitzing and a change in scheme than I think they are comfortable with. Hopefully now the secondary can give the front seven some more freedom and creativity in trying to get to the QB, but I don't see them changing the schemes all that much. Like Mayo, what I do see is simply a secondary with potentially much more cohesiveness with McCourty overseeing things from the FS position, plus a cornerback that can actually cover.

The front seven is fine, but they do need to start limiting Vince's snaps.

That is a matter of opinion I guess.

My eyes tell me that we have progressed some from last year, despite the departure of Anderson and Carter should have set us back. But I could be looking at it through rose-colored glasses.

Even if we are at the same level, then you have to recognize the fact that we lost our 2 best pass rushers from 2011 and have not lost a step there. That is huge considering that we added 1 rookie to fill the gap and that was just about it.

Also, I cannot remember ever seeing anyone on the football field quite like Jones. But having followed his brother in MMA for few years, I gotta say that I'm not surprised. The combination of flexibility, speed, size and strength with Jon Jones is ridiculous, and to me Chandler looks like his brother.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's how I see it:

Reasons for optimism:
1. Talib is an obvious upgrade in talent. The possible domino effect has been stated by others.
2. More blitzing in future games but this is obviously speculation.

Reasons for pessimism:
1. Still not enough talent in the secondary. We have no 3rd CB if McCourty is at FS. If McCourty is at CB we're counting on Chung / Gregory / Wilson at safety which hasn't worked yet. Our longshot saving grace: Cole emerging as a dependable 3rd CB or Arrington playing better against lesser receivers.
2. LB's aren't good in coverage. I think Mayo is under rated in coverage though. long shot saving grace: Chung playing as a coverage LB.

Agreed. I have no idea how Talib will pan out except that he should immediately add some swagger to a secondary that has had none for awhile now. Sure, he might fall flat, get into trouble, etc., but the potential upside of this move is really really high.

No team can realistically expect to make a run without having at least one above-average corner lining up wide every week--that really shouldn't be too much to ask for. That's why I'm utterly baffled by the folks who are/were against this trade. The less the Pats leave to chance the better, and having out McCourtney, Arrington, Moore, and a rookie as your corners probably wouldn't have gotten it done in the end. Pretty simple. I love how much Belichick wants to win, and win NOW.

The two sentences in bold are exactly why, if I were BB, I would kick the tires on Stanford Routt.

The Pats realistically need 3 decent press-man CBs. That would allow them to move McCourty to FS permanently and not worry much about having to have him bounce back and forth between FS and CB week to week as a bandaid. That would allow them to use Chung and Wilson as more forward/downhill safeties, and to let the front 7 attack more. It would let the entire defense become more aggressive, and, I believe, more effective. And with our offense, that would put us in perfect position for a serious SB run. I'd take our chances against any team in the NFL - Houston, SF, the Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago, etc. - if that happened.

We're not quite there yet. Alfonzo Dennard has shown tons of promise but he's still a rookie. Aqib Talib has tons of ability but he's an unknown quantity with a checkered past. And that still only makes 2 good press-man CBs. Ras-I Dowling might have been the 3rd guy, but he couldn't stay on the field, and he's not in the equation for this year. Maybe he'll recover for 2013, maybe he'll go the Shawn Crable/Terrence Wheatley route. Who knows?

If I were BB I'd very quietly sneak Routt in for dinner at the Ground Round, and have something like the following conversation with him:

"Hey Stanford, thanks for coming. This place is a dump, but the burgers are good. Go wild.

So I'm going to cut right to the chase. How would you like to get a Super Bowl ring? Look, let's not mince words. You've been cut twice already this season as a starting CB by crappy teams, and you're due to cash in $11M. Not bad money. Do you really need more? Does you really need to be the starting CB for another mediocre or lousy team? Be realistic: Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Miami and the Jets aren't going to wn the Super Bowl this year, without you or with you. I probably can't offer you as much money as some of those other teams. But there's only one team in the NFL that is one decent press-man CB away from a Lombardi Trophy, and you're looking at the guy who runs it.

Here's the deal. I want to offer you a one year deal for the remainder of 2012. We can kick the money around, and maybe throw in an option if you want, but it's not going to be for a ton of money, and it's basically a one year deal for the next 7 games. I can't promise that you'll be a "starter", but as long as you play decent press-man coverage you'll be one of my top 3 CBs, which means you'll see plenty of defensive snaps. The top 3 guys will all get plenty of playing time. In reality you, Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard will all share time. Sometimes you'll be outside, sometimes you'll be in the slot. Sometimes you'll start, sometimes you won't. It doesn't matter. If that's important to you, don't come here. If the money is important to you, dont come here. But if you want to win a Ring, come here.

Having 3 press-man CBs will let me move Devin McCourty to deep FS, let Pat Chung and Tavon Wilson play more up front, and keep Kyle Arrington and Marquice Cole for depth, dime and ST work. Having McCourty watching the deep part of the field and 3 guys who can bump receivers off their routes will allow me to unleash the dogs up front. With that kind of secondary and my current front 7 and run defense, I should have a top 10 defense, maybe better. And with my offense that kind of defense, I think we can match up with any team in the NFL. There are never any guarantees, but I like our chances for a Super Bowl as well as anyone's.

So what do you say? You've already made $11 million this year. You'd be a free agent in 2013, so we could decide whether this is a good fit, or you would be no worse off than you are now as far as picking your next team. And you might have some nice hardware on your figure to show them when you're shopping.

Can I have some of those fries?"

Routt reportedly visited the Lions but left without a contract, and said that things will all become clear "when there is news to be known". He's reportedly meeting with an undisclosed AFC team, and the Dolphins are reportedly out of the running. Hmm. Wonder who that could be?

CB Routt touts visit, but leaves with no contract | Detroit Lions | Detroit Free Press | freep.com

 

[BlueThunder]

Sounds like the J-E-T-S could be interested.

Do they have cap space for him...can't believe they'd pay him a ton either but if a choice between Pats or Jets, I'd like BB's chances.

 

[JMarr]

Hes their best defenisve player and you want to lessen his # of snaps?

Vince is playing like superman and the push he gets up the middle alone routinely saves our defenses azz. That push isn't going to be there in December if he keeps playing this many snaps.

 

[Deus Irae]

Vince is playing like superman and the push he gets up the middle alone routinely saves our defenses azz. That push isn't going to be there in December if he keeps playing this many snaps.

That push was still there in last year's playoffs, even after a long season. In an ideal world, Vince would get more rest. Unfortunately, in the Patriots world, there's nobody who can really play well enough to give Wilfork that extra rest in close games.

Bottom line: if you want Big Vince on the sidelines more often, start rooting for more 30 point blowouts.

 

[Metaphors]

I think the key to the Pats pass defense is going to be deception. If they stay in the same scheme/formation that they show pre-snap, they aren't going to be overly successful against the QBs they will face in the playoffs (Schaub, Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco, Luck). They can't allow these guys to get an initial read, drop back 3 steps and find their first option.

I think the Pats defense (when healthy) has the horses to adjust post-snap and do a reasonable job against these guys. Here are the factors that are different from the SB defense last year:

1) Gregory in Centerfield

He is limited when isolated in coverage but he is a smart guy in the deep middle. It isn't a coincidence that the Pats have been attacked deep in the 4 weeks that he has been out.

2) Development of Wilson

Wilson has shown flashes of ability and solid instincts. There are parts of his game that need to be cleaned up (locating the ball on deep passes) but that will come with experience.

3) Press coverage by Dennard and Talib

Dowling was just starting to find his niche as a physical presence across the middle. If Talib can just replace that role (and he has the ability to do much more), then he should be able to team with Dennard to disrupt the timing of those quick routes that the Pats struggle with.

4) Where's McCourty?

People seem to be confused on where McCourty will be playing. I just want opposing QBs to be just as confused. Let McCourty line up deep in a cover 2 look but come up post-snap to pick up a receiver (allowing the CB to show man but drift into a zone under). That type of deception will lead to bad choices and indecision that helps the pass rush.

5) Accounting for Jones

It has been a while since opposing offenses had to account for a Pats pass rusher. That affects the comfort level of the QB and the ability of the offense to dictate matchups. As Jones has matured, the Pats have started to move him around and even drop him into coverage.

6) Cunningham 2.0

In his rookie year, Cunningham looked like a very solid (if unspectacular) 3-4 OLB. He has successfully transitioned to a disruptive interior rusher in passing situations. He seems much quicker and his ability to win leverage and hand battles inside are like night-and-day from a year ago. Since he is going to be relatively fresh in the 4th quarter, he can be the difference when offenses have to shift into catch-up mode.

7) Potential Rushers from Anywhere

The Pats have just started to show rush schemes involving the LBs. Early impressions are extremely positive. All the LBs are quick and explosive when knifing into the pocket and they arrive with extreme prejudice. Since Ninkovich, Cunningham and Jones (potentially) can all drop into short zones to disrupt hot routes, the Pats have the potential to show 7 rushers at the snap and bring almost any combination of them. Not saying they do this all the time, but it is a nice tool to have for those key 3rd down situtations.

The Pats pass defense is far from a finished product and the 1st half results reflect this. What is different from past years is that the Pats have room to grow and the developing talent to be much better in the playoffs than they are now.

 

[JMarr]

Bottom line: if you want Big Vince on the sidelines more often, start rooting for more 30 point blowouts.

Or maybe just for Brace to get out of the tub and actually become a decent NFL player.

 

[Deus Irae]

Or maybe just for Brace to get out of the tub and actually become a decent NFL player.

Why not wish for a double win for yourself, in both MassMillions and Powerball in the same week, while you're at it? That seems more likely at this point.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Vince is playing like superman and the push he gets up the middle alone routinely saves our defenses azz. That push isn't going to be there in December if he keeps playing this many snaps.

He played 86% of all defensive snaps last year and hes playing 81% of them this year. Hes also lost some weight. I think BB, VW and the trainers have an open diologue regarding his workload and stamina. I'm not too concerned about it.

I have said in the past that when hes 33-34 they'll start to ease him back and maximize his reps but now is not the time. Hes gotta be out there.