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Prediction: Chad Johnson will still be here next year


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His cutoff point is the roster trim at the end of preseason, at which point he will be asked to restructure his contract if he is deemed good enough to remain on the roster.

To his credit he did not complain once, about the severe cut in his playing time or his role in the offense. I think he deserves another shot because of that.
 
Solid #2? We don't even have a #1.


Needs of our passing game are one of the biggest things this offseason. If we could have stretched the field in the SB..who knows what could have happened

Did you really just throw in the SB there to describe a weakness of the team? We made it to the SB. That's better than 30 other teams. We also scored over 30 points in like 13 games and had one of the best offenses in the NFL with an average-at-best running game. We went 13-3 with a crap defense.

So, to recap:

Our defense was terrible all-around.
Our running game was maybe average.
We went 13-3.

Yet we don't have a championship caliber passing game? Of course we do. We played against one of our worst matchups in the SB, and that was with a bad injury to one of the NFL's best offensive players. And we still came within a first down of winning.

If we don't improve in other areas, there won't be another Super Bowl to test your theory.

I would love to see Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Wayne, etc. as much as the next guy, but let's be realistic. The passing game is not one of our biggest needs. It's our greatest strength, and provided we get Welker back, we have the core players back.
 
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Chad will not be back unless he takes a pay cut. I personally doubt the Pats will go into the season with with Chad as the primary outside threat.

I agree, Ocho will be back if he is willing to take a big paycut but he willbe fighting for a job in camp and they won't be counting on him for anything. Given Cosell's article about defensive coordinators talking openly about the Patriots lack of deep threats I don't believe there is any way that Belichik goes through the offseason without addressing the position with multiple players. Imo he will address it in both free agency and the draft and the unit will look much different next season than it did at the end of this one.
 
Here's my prediciton for the WR unit come game #1:

W. Welker

B. Lloyd

R. Wayne

D. Branch

J. Edelman

J. Slater


Ocho won't make the roster because the last 2 spots need to go to players who can contribute on ST's to suit up on gameday.
 
When Lloyd was asked who he voted for Peyton or TB for #1 player 2011 without hesitation he replied "Tom Brady". Sang em praises. Old interview, gd 1

NFL Videos: Lloyd earns Top 100 ranking

hope we can work with Condon
 
I'd be willing to bet he'll be back with a discount...he would've been cut long ago otherwise. Plus an offseason with TB will help him for sure...I'm a believer in a bounce-back year by Johnson in 2013.
 
When Lloyd was asked who he voted for Peyton or TB for #1 player 2011 without hesitation he replied "Tom Brady". Sang em praises. Old interview, gd 1

NFL Videos: Lloyd earns Top 100 ranking

hope we can work with Condon


Uh oh? I made the claim they would work with Condon a while back and it was shot down very successfully. Have they signed a Condon client since the Ben Watson fiasco?
 
Hopefully, NoCatcho will improve on his $375,000/catch cost. Or we could draft a rookie and pay him a yearly salary equal to one NoCatcho catch......oh the possibilities are endless
 
Chad will be back, and I'm glad too. Everyone on this board gives him so much ****, but next year when he has a firm understanding of our playbook and produces, you will all be like OMG I LOVE CHAD. Why cut him now? It just does not make sense, so we can save 1.5 mil? He has such great potential, and we already have seen him at his worst, the way I look at it, we really have nothing to lose by keeping him. Besides, keeping Chad isn't going to prevent us from grabbing another WR or 2.
 
Here's my prediciton for the WR unit come game #1:

W. Welker

B. Lloyd

R. Wayne

D. Branch

J. Edelman

J. Slater


Ocho won't make the roster because the last 2 spots need to go to players who can contribute on ST's to suit up on gameday.

You don't seriously think we are going to sign reggie wayne and brandon lloyd do you? I hope not because I got news for you, we probably won't sign either.
 
Johnson being back would likely mean one or more of the following:

No new quality veteran WR1
Branch gone
No high round WR chosen in the draft
Edelman cut
Welker not re-signed
Slater cut and his replacement not a WR
Patriots going with 7 receivers


I don't like any of those options being used in order to keep Mr. Johnson on the roster right now, so I'd rather see Mr. Johnson cut loose and his money used to help bring in other players. However, if the team can make all of its desired free agent moves and sign its draft picks without the need for Johnson's $1.5 million in cap space, I'm fine with Mr. Johnson sticking around and competing for a job in camp.
 
I don't think that it's a foregone conclusion that he'll understand the offense given a full offseason. He just played a full season with the team and never managed to figure it out, so it's possible that he just can't grasp it, regardless of how much time he puts in. I'm definitely pulling for him, and hope that he "gets it" prior to roster cutdown, but we won't really have any idea what's going to happen for a few months.
 
You seem to make belief that Welker, Branch and Slater have re-signed. At that point, we would have last year's passing offense and could better consider whether the passing game is a major need.

I'm fine with Branch returning, but I don't expect his production to increase.

Belichick thought that we needed to pay $6M for Ochocinco, even with Price in the house. Obviously, Belichick saw a need. The only way there is no need is if Belichick is bringing back Ochocinco and Underwood (or a draftee) is the next Price (developmental receiver).

Ochocinco might perform. There is no reason not to find out. He can be a late cut if need be. But where is the PLAN? Are we really counting on Branch and Ochocinco to produce at least what they did last year?

I would love to see Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Wayne, etc. as much as the next guy, but let's be realistic. The passing game is not one of our biggest needs. It's our greatest strength, and provided we get Welker back, we have the core players back.
 
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There's no reason to cut Johnson before camp.

Welker, Branch, Ochocinco, Price, Edelman, Slater

Why couldn't a high draftee or free agent take Price's roster spot?

Johnson being back would likely mean one or more of the following:

No new quality veteran WR1
Branch gone
No high round WR chosen in the draft
Edelman cut
Welker not re-signed
Slater cut and his replacement not a WR
Patriots going with 7 receivers


I don't like any of those options being used in order to keep Mr. Johnson on the roster right now, so I'd rather see Mr. Johnson cut loose and his money used to help bring in other players. However, if the team can make all of its desired free agent moves and sign its draft picks without the need for Johnson's $1.5 million in cap space, I'm fine with Mr. Johnson sticking around and competing for a job in camp.
 
BB loves Chad but enough is enough.

He'll be gone unless he has nude photos of BB.
 
There's no reason to cut Johnson before camp.

The accuracy of this statement depends upon the vesting dates (i.e. workout bonuse, etc...) in Johnson's contract.

Welker, Branch, Ochocinco, Price, Edelman, Slater

Why couldn't a high draftee or free agent take Price's roster spot?

That would make 7 wide receivers, because I'm looking for the team to draft a wideout high in the draft and bring in a veteran to start. Given the team's recent history of injury on the defensive side of the ball, I'd prefer to avoid the 7 receiver setup.
 
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Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2011 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page suggests it might cost $1.5 million roster bonus to keep Chad around long enough to see if he can learn the system in the off-season.

A $3 million Salary, a $1.75 million Signing bonus amortization, and a 1.5 mil Roster bonus? NO WAY they keep Chad around. Cutting him takes his cap hit from $6.25 mill to 3.5 mill.. Nuff said.


EDIT: Fencer - as MoLewisRocks pointed out to me in another thread, that 1.5 million roster bonus is not actually there. That was Mike Reiss making a mistake. So, as mentioned, there isn't a reason to cut Chad prior to June 1st, anyways..
 
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"Ocho" wasn't poor this season at all.

IMHO, he was brought in to work outside the numbers along with Branch, primarily because, in 2010, Branch was the only guy who could work the sideline routes consistently well (short and intermediate, as well as - occasionally - deep). Welker worked the edges every so often, but Ahern and Gronk really hadn't yet developed any consistency on those routes. That wasn't enough against the Jets in the playoff game because they were able to keep Branch in check, AND (as few defenses could) flood the middle of the field with able defenders while simultaneously getting decent push from 3-4 rushers.

Sure, it took a while in the beginning for "Ocho" to "learn the system/synch-up with Brady. Not at all unexpected (or shouldn't have been). Of the three dozen or so WRs that BB has acquired during his tenure with the Pats, only 9 produced more yardage in their first year with the Pats than Ocho did (Gaffney produced about half as much). By the time Ocho "caught on" (which was much earlier, IMHO, than most folks seem to think), his role - working the edges and occasionally deep (his targets, caught or not, actually averaged several yards deeper than anyone else on the team) - and the unparalleled success of the Welker/Gronk/Ahern attack over the middle both conspired against him. His role in the passing attack, gradually diminished in importance as did Branch's role, eventually.

Both guys were still getting open often enough outside the numbers, but the ball just wasn't going there very often (as it wasn't to Woody when he got open for dump-offs in the flat). And, why would it? There were three guys out there all creating mismatches in coverage and all catching better than 70% of whatever came their way.

But both Branch and Ocho got in some pretty good blocks when they weren't being targeted that helped Welker, Gronk and Ahern accumulate YAC. They totaled 1907 YAC - just the three of them - out of 5295 total passing yards, and all three were in the TOP 9 in the NFL in YAC. For perspective, the Saints had three guys in the top 17 in YAC (totaled some 300 fewer yds) and two of them were RBs. The Chargers were the only other team with more than one pass catcher in the top 20 in YAC.

That said, I'm not at all sure that what transpired with the passing attack and the offensive scheme this season - in terms of play-design, personnel/play-package sets, Brady's read progressions and cheking out of (or into) running plays - has any bearing whatsoever on what we'll see in 2012. It depends on where BB, Brady and Josh want to take it (and, to some extent, of their projections for the development of Ridley and Vereen WRT catching out of the backfield as well as running). It could very well turn out that the 2012 scheme will include a greater emphasis on running and/or short-intermediate sideline routes. If the latter, the Pats could do much worse than Branch and Ocho for that job, though Reggie Wayne might fit well as a replacement for one or the other of them and might be slightly more of a deep threat.

However, these guys ARE all older and without any long term upside. Branch turns 33 in July; Ocho turned 34 in early January, Wayne will turn 35 by mid-season 2012. Even Brandon Lloyd will turn 31 in July (actually just two months later than Welker). I can't imagine that the Pats brain trust would pass on any reasonable opportunity to at least try to add some youth with development potential on draft day - someone to understudy the masters of the outside game while they can still play at all.

So, anyway, in terms of pass-catchers next season, I think we'll see:

Welker

Gronk/Hernandez

at least one, maybe two veteran sideline guys (Branch, Ocho, a "new" UFA), possibly pirating some targets from the three above

at least one rookie draftee (perhaps the bigger guy many have been lobbying for) with an outside possibility of a guy promoted from the PS

Woody/Ridley/Vereen possibly seeing more play in the passing attack

Edelman (nominally, since he's really a utility player more than a WR)

That would make 5-6 guys as "real WRs" (plus Edelman and Slater, laughably, still officially listed at WR), plus two TEs, with Hernandez possibly continuing in his H-back role, thus making him also the #4/#5 RB.
 
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