Prediction: Belichick Trades Out of Round 1 to Replace Brady in the Future.

[IcyPatriot]

I think Belichick brought the QB's in both for due diligence and to strengthen his hand to trade out of the first round. I think the biggest issue going forward for the team is replacing Brady. I think the team has too much talent to think we have a sub .500 year even with an injured Brady.

That being said I think the strategy starts anew this year to trade out of the 1st to have 2 first round picks going forward for the year Belichick pulls the trigger on drafting a QB in the top half of the draft. For this year I see him drafting a QB later and signing at least 1 or 2 undrafted QB's going into camp with 3 noob QB's for now hoping to strike it rich again.

Thoughts?

 

[supafly]

I think the idea should always be considered, Icy, but in this particular draft I'm not sure that I'd want to trade out for additional picks in the future. Any other year would be a no-brainer, but this year may just be too deep talent-wise.

I would like to see one of Murray, Mettenberger, or McCarron taken in the 4th round; particularly since we have two selections there.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I think next year is the year to start getting things in order to try and draft Brady's replacement in 2016. I think 2016 would be the perfect time to draft a successor because it would give whoever we draft 2 years to sit and learn with Brady still under contract. If Brady then decides to ride off into the sunset we will have a young replacement with two years experience in the system and at least 2 years (maybe 3 if they are a 1st round pick) left on his rookie contract. Timing wise I think that is perfect unless Brady gives a strong indication he wants to continue playing well into his 40's and signs an extension.

Obviously there also needs to be the right guy available and its way too early to even evaluate the 2015 QB's let alone the 2016 QB's, but I wouldn't have a problem with trading a high 2015 pick into the 2016 draft to give us some flexibility. If the right guy isn't there in 2016 we can then try and move those extra assets into 2017 and hope for a better option. Either way I think a 2016 or 2017 high draft pick make more sense than a 2014 or 2015 pick if we are looking for Brady's successor.

 

[dryheat44]

While I don't think that Belichick is going to pull the trigger on a Manziel, a Bridgwater, a Carr, etc, these guys do hit free agency eventually, and they can be traded for, so I just think it's a matter of putting their file together.

As for Brady's successor, I think this year they need to draft Mallett's successor, and if they get lucky, he'll surprise them and be worthy of re-signing when Brady decides to hang them up.

 

[Ivan]

I think the priority has to be filling out the rosterr to give them the best shot at winning another ring or two before Brady hangs them up. They can deal with the repalcement issues in a couple of years, right now i see TE/OG/C/LB and DL as the more pressing issues.

 

[BobDigital]

It depends on the deal. This year I am really in the "win now" mode.

However if the offer is really good and can put you in that top 10 range for next year you have to consider it. We must keep in mind however we are taking a shot either way even with a top 10 pick.

Teams are able to move up the board this year but that is only because there is no sure QB prospect. If you remember in 2011 when Andrew Luck was on the board no one was getting him but the Colts. They would not have traded that pick away for anything. So even if there is another QB that is a sure thing he is going to be out of our range. So either way we are taking a chance no matter how high we pick.

 

[Galeb]

Even if this weren't such a strong draft, it would seem counter-intuitive to take resources away from winning now. I don't believe in selling out the future to win now, but it is certainly not the time to bundle future pics at the expense of today. Considering that it is considered a buyers market for trading up, I would expect it more likely for BB to trade future picks to move up to get a player he covets at a position of need than to trade for future picks.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Even if this weren't such a strong draft, it would seem counter-intuitive to take resources away from winning now. I don't believe in selling out the future to win now, but it is certainly not the time to bundle future pics at the expense of today. Considering that it is considered a buyers market for trading up, I would expect it more likely for BB to trade future picks to move up to get a player he covets at a position of need than to trade for future picks.

Except that he's said that he's very much opposed to moving up "to get a player he covets at a position of need." If it doesn't work, then you've wasted multiple picks and you still have a need.

 

[IcyPatriot]

We're picking at #29 ... not much difference picking there and picking in the top 40. If a QB slides I think Belichick set it up for teams to worry he may grab that QB at #29 ... I think he set the bait nicely should a QB drop. If one drops he expect him to trade down for a future #1. A future #1 today isn't even a consideration at QB until the 2016 season if even then. If next years draft is weak he can keep trading that extra 1 to the next year until he gets a decent high pick to land Brady's successor. Next years draft may not be it ... I believe he has to set it up now so he has a draft or 2 to pull the trigger. Makes much sense to me ... trading down 5 to 20 picks in this draft is not going to ruin the season ... that's just inane to think it would.

We'll see ...

 

[Mike the Brit]

BB always seems to like flexibility -- he wants to move around to get the guys he likes without overpaying. That means (often) a bias to trading down and trading for future picks (fortunately, he knows his job isn't on the line) -- until the year he decides that Hightower and Jones are too good to miss.

As for how he'll look to replace Brady, it's anybody's guess. Mine is that it's quite likely he'll have a season where he brings in several qbs from different sources (existing back-ups, draft picks, veteran FAs) lets them fight it out in camp and, when he's decided who it is, throw the rest out of the door in order not to increase the pressure on the new guy.

Just my two cents ...

 

[rdf63]

Give this idea a thought. The Pats are not looking to draft a quarterback this year but are evaluating what could be available in 2 years. They are looking at the quarterbacks and some of them will either go to a team that is not a good fit or won't be needed. The Pats will then decide to go after a quarterback in 2015 or 2016 and decide if it would be better to trade for somebody out of the 2014 draft or pick somebody in future drafts. I may be wrong but this really looks more like the Pats are planning for future decisions. Tom terrific may be getting older but he is still a very good quarterback.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Give this idea a thought. The Pats are not looking to draft a quarterback this year but are evaluating what could be available in 2 years. They are looking at the quarterbacks and some of them will either go to a team that is not a good fit or won't be needed. The Pats will then decide to go after a quarterback in 2015 or 2016 and decide if it would be better to trade for somebody out of the 2014 draft or pick somebody in future drafts. I may be wrong but this really looks more like the Pats are planning for future decisions. Tom terrific may be getting older but he is still a very good quarterback.

Exactly why I think they trade out of the first round this year ... we need that extra pick because Brady is at an age where rehabilitation is not always the chosen route. It will take 2 years to properly prepare to replace him ... we can continually trade a 1st from year to year as we did in the past until we need to use it on a high QB pick. In the meantime ... Belichick will spin the wheel and hope to strike it rich later in the draft again for 2014 and possibly 2015.

 

[stumeister]

Exactly why I think they trade out of the first round this year ... we need that extra pick because Brady is at an age where rehabilitation is not always the chosen route. It will take 2 years to properly prepare to replace him ... we can continually trade a 1st from year to year as we did in the past until we need to use it on a high QB pick. In the meantime ... Belichick will spin the wheel and hope to strike it rich later in the draft again for 2014 and possibly 2015.


If that happens I would like to see us trade #29 into the low 2nd round plus a decent sweetner say late 3rd early 4th. Then trade the early 2nd for a 1st next year and keep and use the sweetner. If the QB's are still there something like that could happen.

 

[patfanken]

2 thoughts:

1. I'm firmly in the camp that this is NOT the year to draft a QB 2 reasons

a. drafting a QB with Mallett still here means we'd likely carry 3 QB's on the roster. I don't want to lose that spot.
b. TB still has 3 more years left. Even if the Pats were lucky enough to grab a guy who turns out to be a reasonable replacement, he'll be in his contract year when he finally gets to start.

2. There is a scenario in which I can see BB picking a QB. Its one where we are in the 6th round a BB sees a QB with a 3rd round grade still on the board. In other words when the grade on the player just to high to pass up regardless of the position and need.

THAT was why BB pick TB in 2000, despite having a good starter who just signed a huge contract, a solid back up and a promising (at least we thought so then) 2nd year player. TB's draft grade was just THAT much better than anything the Pats could get with the pick. TB was also very lucky that the Pats were in full rebuilding mode in 2000, so carrying 4 QB's really didn't matter.

 

[dryheat44]

2 thoughts:

1. I'm firmly in the camp that this is NOT the year to draft a QB 2 reasons

a. drafting a QB with Mallett still here means we'd likely carry 3 QB's on the roster. I don't want to lose that spot.
b. TB still has 3 more years left. Even if the Pats were lucky enough to grab a guy who turns out to be a reasonable replacement, he'll be in his contract year when he finally gets to start.

2. There is a scenario in which I can see BB picking a QB. Its one where we are in the 6th round a BB sees a QB with a 3rd round grade still on the board. In other words when the grade on the player just to high to pass up regardless of the position and need.

THAT was why BB pick TB in 2000, despite having a good starter who just signed a huge contract, a solid back up and a promising (at least we thought so then) 2nd year player. TB's draft grade was just THAT much better than anything the Pats could get with the pick. TB was also very lucky that the Pats were in full rebuilding mode in 2000, so carrying 4 QB's really didn't matter.

I think your comparison more resembles the acquisition of O'Connell or Mallett than Brady. By no accounts was Brady rated as significantly higher than 199. The decision was made to draft a QB, most likely for the practice squad, and it came down to Brady or that LA Tech QB I was really high on at the time but whose name escapes me now. If Brady was known to be all that, we would have let go of Friesz or Bishop instead of devoting 4 rostwr spots to the position.

There's nothing wrong with carrying a 3rd QB on the roster, especially comfortable in the knowledge Mallett won't be here in 2015. I'd rather not let Brady's backup be some guy we just drafted. Draft him now and let him learn for a year as a gameday inactive/emergency QB and take over #2 next year. Remember, I'm advocating drafting Mallett's replacement, not Brady's.

Of course, it wouldn't be out of the question for him to beat out Mallett this year, or at least practice well enough that Mallett could be traded.

 

[QFFL]

It is more realistic to draft a backup QB, of course you can always hope you hit the jackpot like Brady.

 

[supafly]

As I've stated in other threads, I have no problem as a fan whatsoever if we choose a QB in the 3rd or 4th round. Remember that we have 5 picks in the top four rounds, so we should still have plenty of opportunities to address the positions that most of us want/need to see addressed.

In other words, we could still have a bit of a luxury with that kind of flexibility and volume in the top 4 rounds, especially if we end up trading back at some point to acquire an additional pick or two. Then it's practically a no-brainer in my opinion.

 

[Galeb]

Except that he's said that he's very much opposed to moving up "to get a player he covets at a position of need." If it doesn't work, then you've wasted multiple picks and you still have a need.

I don't know if BB has ever said such a thing, but he moved up twice in the first round to get Hightower and Jones a couple of years ago. Either way, I merely said that he was more likely to do that than to bundle pics to move up to draft a top QB prospect next year.