Predicted 07 Roster - January 25-07 (re-post)

[BradyManny]

Seriously?

I doubt the Pats trade up with their #1's. They're in economically good value range (back 1/2 of 1st round), according to Kraft.

I agree with this, but I disagree with the assessment that our OL is set.

They've done a great job protecting Brady as always, but they have to share some of the blame for the inconsistency of the running attack all year.

I don't know enough about evaluating OL talent to say what I'm about to say, but I'd consider anyone on the OL except for Mankins & Koppen as "adequate, but upgradeable."

 

[pats1]

I agree with this, but I disagree with the assessment that our OL is set.

They've done a great job protecting Brady as always, but they have to share some of the blame for the inconsistency of the running attack all year.

I don't know enough about evaluating OL talent to say what I'm about to say, but I'd consider anyone on the OL except for Mankins & Koppen as "adequate, but upgradeable."

Any player outside of a Brady is technically "upgradable." You can almost always do better.

However, I don't think the Pats are going to give up on Kaczur and O'Callaghan and Neal after they, uh, haven't done much of anything wrong.

 

[BradyManny]

Any player outside of a Brady is technically "upgradable." You can almost always do better.

However, I don't think the Pats are going to give up on Kaczur and O'Callaghan and Neal after they, uh, haven't done much of anything wrong.

Right, I hear ya, but something has gotta give with the running game. We have 3 too many good RBs to not be able to run effectively when we need to. Like I said, I really don't know who is at fault for that, it could be any number of factors.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

The same was said about Belichick drafting an offensive lineman in the first round, as well.

and running back

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

4 points from the Super Bowl if not for a defensive collapse in the second half.

As for possible free agents, the Washington Redskins could cut David Patten since the Washington Redskins are currently over the salary cap. Bobby Engram could be an interesting prospect if he is willing to accept a deeply discounted rate.

4 points from the superbowl. the defense actually scored 7 of those points and hobbs set up some more.

so in the second half the offense was equally as guilty as the defense. the offense gave the ball right back after the scored got tied back up and gave the defense no rest. couldn't run the ball, hopefully the blocking scheme gets adjusted for maroney full time.

 

[ATippett56]

4 points from the superbowl. the defense actually scored 7 of those points and hobbs set up some more.

so in the second half the offense was equally as guilty as the defense. the offense gave the ball right back after the scored got tied back up and gave the defense no rest. couldn't run the ball, hopefully the blocking scheme gets adjusted for maroney full time.

I agree that the Colts game was a total team collapse by the New England Patriots. However, the Patriots defense allowed 32 points in the second half, the most ever coached by a Bill Belichick team.

The lack of depth at linebacker, cornerback, and safety must be addressed this off-season via the 2007 NFL draft with a couple of wide receivers thrown into the mix. Also, the acquisition of defensive end/outside linebacker Jarret Johnson from the Baltimore Ravens in unrestricted free agency could provide added depth at the outside linebacker.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I agree that the Colts game was a total team collapse by the New England Patriots. However, the Patriots defense allowed 32 points in the second half, the most ever coached by a Bill Belichick team.

The lack of depth at linebacker, cornerback, and safety must be addressed this off-season via the 2007 NFL draft with a couple of wide receivers thrown into the mix. Also, the acquisition of defensive end/outside linebacker Jarret Johnson from the Baltimore Ravens in unrestricted free agency could provide added depth at the outside linebacker.

the Pats got crushed in time of possession in the second half, no wonder the defense collapsed.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I just put this in the draft forum, and likely broke every rule of internet forum etiquette but with all the offseason talk I think it is just as applicable here. Thoughts, realistic? crazy? other ideas?
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I will change this 20 more times before September but as of now, here is my projected 53 man roster, draft picks and FA signings (attached in zipped Excel file).

Summary

Free Agents
- Samuel get signed, everything changes if this doesn't happen ( 6 Years, $34, $11 Bonus)
- Napolean Harris is signed and projected to start at ILB ( 5 Years, $22, $5 Bonus)
- Graham leaves, injury history makes it too risky to sign long term

Draft Summary
- heavy focus on defense on day 1, Bradley and Burgess are brought in, each has the potential to play OLB or ILB

2007 Draft
1 - Round 1 WR - Bowe (LSU)
1 - Round 1 S - Griffin (Texas)
2 - Round 2 OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
3 - Round 3 OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan)
4 - Round 4 CB - Smith (Florida)
5 (Comp) Round 5 RB - Snelling (Virginia)
6 - Round 6 OT\OG - Barbre (Missouri Southern State)
6 (Comp) Round 6 TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
7 - Round 7 S - Mitchell (Ohio State)

UFAs , ERFAs, RFAs
- all tendered including Gay

Projected Roster (Warning, this will look like crap, use the Excel file for a better view)
Pos - Depth1 Depth2 Depth3
QB - Brady, Cassel
LWR - Caldwell, WR - Bowe (LSU), Kight
RWR - Gaffney, Jackson
LT - Light,
LG - Mankins, Yates
C - Koppen, Hochstein
RG - Neal,
RT - Kaczur, O'Callaghan
TE - Watson, Thomas, TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
FB - Evans
RB - Maroney, FAULK, RB - Snelling (Virginia)
LDE - Warren, Wright
NT - Wilfork, Smith
RDE - Seymour, Green, Hill
LOLB - COLVIN, OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
LILB - BRUSCHI, Alexander, Izzo
RILB - Harris OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan), Mays
ROLB - VRABEL, Woods
LCB - Samuel, Gay, CB - Smith (Florida)
SS - HARRISON, Sanders, Mitchell
FS - Wilson, S - Griffin (Texas), Andrews
RCB - Hobbs, Scott
P - MILLER
PK Gostkowski
LS Paxton

I note that you have the Patriots drafting Prescott Burgess from Michigan. I suspect that he is an ideal addition to the Patriots LB corps, He started out as a Safety and just kept growing and outgrew the position. He became a LB and excelled at that as well. However he was playing on a team with David Harris, Pierre Woods and Lamar Woodley, so he did not get his due recognition.

The Patriots have the Gator receiving corps but I could see the Pats having a LB corps of Michigan players as all these mentioned players fit the Patriot definition of a LB with size. Harris is an unspectacular player who is always consistently there and not fooled. That certainly sounds like a trait that Belichick seeks.

So he is a coverage LB with Size. The last one we had was a fellow named Phifer.

You also beleive that we sign Nap Harris and I agree. I think he is much more probable a signing or trade than Briggs or Thomas. He has had run in with Coach Childress hence persona non grata; Minnesota had the very best run Defense in the League and the combination of a good DL and a MLB (Nap) made that so. He is a former first round LB with size at 6-3 255 and speed.

 

[cstjohn17]

I note that you have the Patriots drafting Prescott Burgess from Michigan. I suspect that he is an ideal addition to the Patriots LB corps, He started out as a Safety and just kept growing and outgrew the position. He became a LB and excelled at that as well. However he was playing on a team with David Harris, Pierre Woods and Lamar Woodley, so he did not get his due recognition.

The Patriots have the Gator receiving corps but I could see the Pats having a LB corps of Michigan players as all these mentioned players fit the Patriot definition of a LB with size. Harris is an unspectacular player who is always consistently there and not fooled. That certainly sounds like a trait that Belichick seeks.

So he is a coverage LB with Size. The last one we had was a fellow named Phifer.

You also beleive that we sign Nap Harris and I agree. I think he is much more probable a signing or trade than Briggs or Thomas. He has had run in with Coach Childress hence persona non grata; Minnesota had the very best run Defense in the League and the combination of a good DL and a MLB (Nap) made that so. He is a former first round LB with size at 6-3 255 and speed.

When looking at LBs I tried to select players:
- who could show versatility, either as both ILB/OLB (ala Vrabel) and play all 3 downs.
- who are not slotted into the traditional specialist roles; like "2 down run stuffer" (Ted Johnson) or "3rd down coverage" (Phifer). It is too expensive from a roster perspective and really hurts if someone gets injured. Both Bradley and Burgess seem to be big enough and athletic enough to play multiple LB positions. This appeals more to me than drafting someone like Willis or Harris who may have to be pulled off the field on 3rd downs.
- I wanted a veteran to start at ILB not a rookie, preferably someone in his mid 20s. There are not too many of these out there, Harris seemed like the best fit.

Donnie Edwards - Donnie Edwards, I am likely dead wrong but I just don't think he could be a 3 down player for the Pats unless he takes over Bruschi's position, and I am counting on Bruschi to return (if he does retire I hope they bring Edwards in). Although Edwards would provide an immediate improvement in our ability to cover TEs like Clark but the Colts are a rarity (2 good WRs,good TE and an effective running game). A rotation of Seau and Edwards is interesting but I am not sure of how many bullets Seau has left and the idea of getting even older at LB doesn't appeal to me.

Napolean Harris- I don't think he will ever be a pro bowl player but should be able to come in and contribute. He has not lived up to his 1st round potential but has starting MLB experience (unlike Beisel who was a converted DE) and has the meaureables (6'3, 255, runs a 4.6) to be a 3 down player. Plus he is at an age (27 at start of 2007 season) where he should be productive for the next 5 years.

In our defense it seems like if the front seven is playing fundamentally sound it takes a lot of pressure off the secondary. With some improved LB play our front seven could even dominate.

Of cource all of this changes if Samuel is not resigned... it is amazing the impact of one player on an off season. With Samuel in the fold our top 2 CBs are set and we can start to add depth. If he leaves then we need a starting CB, maybe a 4th CB if Gay leaves and a 5th CB or nickleback.

It reminds me of an overlooked signing from last off-season, our OL had serious questions at the end of 05 (Light injured, Koppen injured & a pending FA, Kaczur injured, Ashworth gone and Neal a FA). By signing Neal we avoided the possibility of using another high draft pick on OL. Sometimes the signings flow like Dominoes.

I am done with my guessing until after the combine.... it is a lot of work, but it is fun.

 

[ATippett56]

Napolean Harris- I don't think he will ever be a pro bowl player but should be able to come in and contribute. He has not lived up to his 1st round potential but has starting MLB experience (unlike Beisel who was a converted DE) and has the meaureables (6'3, 255, runs a 4.6) to be a 3 down player. Plus he is at an age (27 at start of 2007 season) where he should be productive for the next 5 years.

I'm not sure the New England Patriots organization would be willing to commit a long term contract to a "classic underachiever".

 

[cstjohn17]

I'm not sure the New England Patriots organization would be willing to commit a long term contract to a "classic underachiever".

This would be a risk and will depend on their evaluations. I would bet that there is 0% chance of the roster looking like this because it is so complex and n one really knows how they view things.

But they have rolled the dice before, some players listed were underacheivers, some were old, some had "character issues".. Dillion, Terrell, Poole, Beisel, Chad Brown, Gabriel, Cox, Starks, Washington.

 

[ATippett56]

This would be a risk and will depend on their evaluations. I would bet that there is 0% chance of the roster looking like this because it is so complex and n one really knows how they view things.

But they have rolled the dice before, some players listed were underacheivers, some were old, some had "character issues".. Dillion, Terrell, Poole, Beisel, Chad Brown, Gabriel, Cox, Starks, Washington.

I would rather commit that type of money to Adalius Thomas, regardless that he will be 30 years of age in August.

 

[cstjohn17]

I would rather commit that type of money to Adalius Thomas, regardless that he will be 30 years of age in August.

For the same money, me too. I think Thomas will be a lot more,

 

[FilPats]

"Watson goes?" Are you high? First of all, his contract isn't even over. Second of all, the guy just finished his first full year (hurt rookie year and wasn't a starter to later last year), and he is one of the most physically impressive guys in the league. Anyone who thinks he isn't worth a roster spot is just wrong.

Yeah. Watson stays. Let him work offseason on the Jugs machine.
Go Watson. Go Pats:rocker:

 

[ayjackson]

Yeah. Watson stays. Let him work offseason on the Jugs machine.
Go Watson. Go Pats:rocker:

While it is likely that Watson isn't going anywhere, I would not be surprised if the Pats came to terms with Graham and decided to trade Watson for a very nice pick.

 

[mgteich]

My roster is the 53 man roster of current signees, plus ERFA's and RFA's which can certainly be re-signed or tendered. This our base roster. It is from here that I personally judge our needs and our need for upgrades.
==================================

OFFENSE (24)
QB - 2 Brady, Cassell
RB - 4 Dillon, Maroney, Faulk
FB - 1 Charles
WR - 5 Gaffney, Caldwell, Jackson, Kight, Childress
TE - 3 Watson, Thomas, Mills
OT - 4 Light, Kaycur, O'Callaghan, Britt
C - 2 Koppen, Mruzkowski
OG - 4 Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Yates

My personal choice for roster spots, is to add a QB and FB, and have one fewer OL and RB. Mruczkowski and Charles would be replaced by these two open spots.

DEFENSE (26)
DE 5 - Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Hill
NT 2 - Wilfork, Smith
LB 5 - Vrabel, Colvin, Bruschi, Alexander, Woods
CB 4 - Hobbs, Scott, Gay, Williams
S 4 - Harrison, Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders
Sters 6 - Andrews, Mays, Spann, Jones, Mitchell, Baker

We usually carry more STer's that can backup at LB.

SPECIALISTS (3)
P 1 - Miller
K 1 - Gostowksi
DS 1 - Paxton
=============================================

This is a strong team. I am confident that we can improve the team with re-signings of free agents, by signing UFA's and UDFA's, by trades and through the draft.

By personal choice is to focus on our own free agents as a first step, along with needs analysis. We will not even know what free agents are available from other teams until early March.

Our own free agants are the best opportunity to plug holes and upgrade.

These free agents include:
Banta-Cain, Brown, Evans, Gardner, Graham, Izzo, Mickens, Pass, Samuel, Sauerbraun,
Scott, Seau, Testaverde and Walter.

Even relatively minor signings would make a difference. We do that each year. We could, for example, sign Brown, Evans, Gardner, Izzo, Mickens, Pass, Scott, Seau and Testaverde. There would be little signing bonuses involved and almost no guaranteed salary involved.

Of course, the key questions are whether we are able to sign Samuel, Graham or Banta-Cain.

We need to answer these free agent questions, consider a trade or two, and review everyone's March 1st free agent list Then we will be ready for the start of free agency on March 2.

 

[Jimke]

Other than Randall Gay, I don't think the Pats will make tender

offers to any of their other RFAs. They would have to invest a mininum

of $850,000 per player. Baker, Mruczkowski, and Yates do not figure

to make the team.

 

[Oswlek]

This would be a risk and will depend on their evaluations. I would bet that there is 0% chance of the roster looking like this because it is so complex and n one really knows how they view things.

But they have rolled the dice before, some players listed were underacheivers, some were old, some had "character issues".. Dillion, Terrell, Poole, Beisel, Chad Brown, Gabriel, Cox, Starks, Washington.

Of the guys that you list, only Terrell would be considered an "underachiever".

Beisel and Gabriel NE took flyers on hoping that they were emerging players.

Brown Cox and Washington were guys who were very good earlier and NE hoped to get just a little bit more.

Poole and Starks were guys that had been good before, but had slowed down due to circumstances. I guess they could be mild underachievers in recent years but they had some success in the past.

Dillon was never an underachiever. He just had character issues.

All the true underachievers NE has signed have subsequently done nothing with them. Terrell, Davis, Sullivan. I don't consider a guy like Vrabel to be an underachiever because he was just on a LB rich team, and it wasn't like he was a high pick either.

 

[cstjohn17]

DEFENSE (25)
DE 5 - Seymour, Warren, Green, Wight, Hill
NT 2 - Wilfork, Smith
LB 5 - Vrabel, Colvin, Bruschi, Alexander, Woods
CB 4 - Hobbs, Gay, Wilson, Williams
S 3 - Harrison, Hawkins, Sanders
Sters 6 - Andrews, Mays, Spann, Jones, Mitchell, Baker

This is a strong team. I am confident that we can improve the team with re-signings of free agents, by signing UFA's and UDFA's, by trades and through the draft.

Overall the team is pretty strong based solely on the players signed on the roster. Especially on offense where we really have all the players in place from 06 (may lose a TE Graham and a WR Brown).

On defense there are a lot of holes to fill. I may use the term solid, but not strong. The LB unit, S and CBs listed are a little scary, and very thin.
CB:
- At CB there is no number 1 corner and big questions at 3 (Wilson), 4 (Gay), 5 (Williams - Who?), I guess Spann can be listed at #6
- if Samuels leaves at least 2 players will have to brought in from outside the organization, maybe 1 FA and 1 draftee
S - I think we need an upgrade at FS, Atrell "deep voice" Hawkins is an ok backup
- I would rather see Wilson back at FS instead of CB, this makes the CBs even thinner
LB
- ILB looks very weak, even with Bruschi returning we need a starter and some depth to backup, both these players will likely come from outside (again FA and draftee)
- OLB - pretty solid, depth can be added with TBC, other FA or draft, not an urgent need

LB 5 - Vrabel, Colvin, Bruschi, Alexander, Woods
CB 4 - Hobbs, Gay, Wilson, Williams
S 3 - Harrison, Hawkins, Sanders

Chad Scott - Is he signed for 2007?
Cap page doesn't list him - http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html
Free agency page lists him as an UFA after 2007 - http://www.patscap.com/patsfreeagency.html

 

[DaBruinz]

Other than Randall Gay, I don't think the Pats will make tender

offers to any of their other RFAs. They would have to invest a mininum

of $850,000 per player. Baker, Mruczkowski, and Yates do not figure

to make the team.

The Pats will make the 1 year tenders to Baker, Mruczkowski and Yates to help with depth. And, as a reminder, Yates came in and filled in for Neal pretty well. Yates also made it so the Pats decided to let Dan Stevenson go. Yates is a C/G as is Mruczkowski. They will be signed as camp fodder.

The Pats will sign their 88 players and probably have 5 NFLE players as well as Malone and Baugher are already heading over there. I believe that Ventrone, Zuriel Smith and probably Earl Charles will be the other 3 to go to NFLE unless they aren't healthy enough.

Currently, the Pats have 47 players under contract for next season, including Malone and Baugher. The Pats probably have 10-12 draft picks as well. I wouldn't be surprised. That means the Pats will be siging some 34 players to contracts between now and the start of camp. Some will be their own UFA/ERFA/RFA. Some will be UDFA. And others will be regular UFA. They have some 23 million in cap money to spend (I am leaving about 3 million for incidentals). You can bet that they are going to spend a lot of it.