Predict the passing production!!!

[ausbacker]

How can he throw for fewer yards than 2011 with the addition of Lloyd and the addition by subtraction of Ocho?

It sounds crazy to say that 42 TDs isn't enough but it may not be enough. Depends. I'll buy the 42 for now but won't be surprised if he breaks his own record.

2007 without the hangover.

I don't care how many yards the Patriots throw for as long as they are efficient with the ball, commit a low number of turnovers, create match-up nightmares and win on the back of a much improved defense.

 

[Ring 6]

I think this year will resemble 2010 more than 2011, because I expect an improved defense and a number of games where we throw less than 30 passes because the game is over. (there were 9 of those in 2010)
So i expect about 500 pass attempts.
Now per play, I expect as good as ever results.
So we are talking about 340 completions, and about 4400 yards, and close to 50 TDs.
I have no clue how to split up the cathes because we had 401 last year, and have improved. Someone will take a big hit.

 

[ivanvamp]

Brady: 4700 yds, 38 td

Welker: 100 rec, 1100 yds, 5 td
Gronkowski: 75 rec, 1000 yds, 12 td
Hernandez: 60 rec, 800 yds, 7 td
Lloyd: 55 rec, 900 yds, 6 td
Gaffney: 40 rec, 500 yds, 3 td

The rest: 40 rec, 400 yds, 5 td

The running game will get a bunch of touchdowns, and I think the D will put up some points as well, and the Pats will average 35 ppg. Not enough to break the all-time single-season record, but it'll get them in the top 3 in history.

 

[HomerSchooled]

Some tidbits to help make some predictions more informed:

-Brady is really, really good at throwing TD passes. There's a reason the record for receiving TDs for both WRs and TEs are recent Patriots. Notice Welker's TDs dropped from 8 to 3 when Cassel took over at QB in 2008, even though all his other numbers were nearly identical.

-Lloyd, for his career, averages 1 TD every 10 or so receptions. In his best seasons, he averaged 1 TD every 6 or 7 receptions. That's probably closer to what Brady will get out of him.

-BGE was a great scorer or rushing TDs and never fumbled. No one on the roster is as trust worthy as he was near the goal line. That may lead to a few more passes in the red zone.

-The last time the NFL had a massive, league wide boom in passing volume and efficiency like this past year was 2004. Numbers dropped substantially in 2005, and the season turned out to be a bit of an anomaly, perhaps due to the famous reemphasis of Pass Interference rules. With the lockout preceding the season, 2011 might go down as a similarly singular set of circumstances.