Welcome to PatsFans.com

Polls show Rmoney ahead

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Patters, Oct 8, 2012.

  1. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    18,060
    Likes Received:
    187
    Ratings:
    +262 / 10 / -11

    The Pew poll, which conservatives generally consider to be fairly liberal puts Rmoney ahead by 4 among likely voters. Supposedly the Daily Kos poll, and Daily Kos is a very liberal site, will show Rmoney leading as well. This is why I have not once predicted a victor in the race. The fact is anything can happen. Rmoney has momentum, and the big guns (like the NRA) are starting to spend their big dollars.

    In the meantime, how well can we expect Obama to do in the next debates? It's not his forte, and the Rmoney team wisely has supposedly been preparing since July. I think Biden will do okay against Ryan, simply because Biden has a nice way about him, but I can't see Obama beating Rmoney in debate -- maybe holding him to a draw. At any rate, the race is getting more interesting. Until now, the predictions for the most part were pretty much that Obama would be a shoo in (with of course some experts saying otherwise), but now it's horse race. How will the Obama team stem the Rmoney team momentum?

    At this time of year, the election is a sport, not in the hands of Rmoney or Obama, but in the hands of their respective teams. It will be curious to see what kinds of tricks each team has up its sleeve, if any.

    Romney

    (In the Pew poll,) Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2012
  2. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    24,845
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +233 / 8 / -13

    As best as I can see the polls have moved about 1% on Romney's direction since the beginning of the month.


    Haven't seen the internals of the Pew poll to see if they have changed their voting models. I would note that Ryan is doing campaign events in Michigan.
  3. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    39,112
    Likes Received:
    472
    Ratings:
    +1,040 / 9 / -19

    #87 Jersey

    I guess Obama knew more than many thought he did building that home in Hawaii. In any case ... I still think he is crazy running for a 2nd term ... he could and should enjoy his family while the girls are still living under their roof. He could easily set records for money earned at speaking engagements and he still could be a political force much in the way of Bill Clinton.
  4. Triumph

    Triumph On the Roster

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    6,640
    Likes Received:
    102
    Ratings:
    +284 / 57 / -37

    #32 Jersey

    I'll be surprised if Biden wins the VP debate.

    Obama wont win his next debate because the first half is on foreign policy and we know how well thats going. If Obama wins the 3rd debate, IMO it will be too little, too late because Romney will have swayed the Independents to his side by then.
  5. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2005
    Messages:
    6,757
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +69 / 0 / -0

    #95 Jersey

    Agreed, Sarah Palin essentially tied Biden last time which came off as a victory for her. Now the pressure is on the VP big time, to a) match up against a policy wonk and b) not make a gaffe where people will owner if the VP has gotten too old to serve. That may explain why they are taking 6 days to prep him. Now they understand the importance of it.......

    Oh and the polls will fluctuate between now and Nov 6 more than.........(insert humorous reference) so I wouldn't get too high or too low whatever side you're own...Just plan no being late to work on Wed Nov 7th..because it will be a late night...
  6. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    24,845
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +233 / 8 / -13

    Sounds like the Pew is a +5% R sample (was +10 D sample previously)

    That seems to me be a not real good sample oversampling pubs by a couple of %.

    That said when looking at the raw data for all the polls Romney is leading by the 4%, more significant is the leas among independents which is approaching 8% now.
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,762
    Likes Received:
    178
    Ratings:
    +360 / 11 / -27

    Real Clear Politics has Obama with 251 electoral votes to Romney's 181....
  8. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    24,845
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +233 / 8 / -13


    I saw the polls the margin is actually .5% R NOT 5% as the report I saw stated, pretty close to the current party affiliation distribution of .13% D. The results track pretty closely what the Rasmussen and Gallup polls are saying when corrected for party affiliation.
  9. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    20,525
    Likes Received:
    290
    Ratings:
    +556 / 7 / -9

    LMAO, everybody else is saying 5% advantage in R party affiliation. This is comical in any event; what's going on here is that people say "I'll vote for him, which I guess makes me a Republican this year." Same effect as pertained when you were complaining that Dems were oversampled. By the way, hilariously, some Obama surrogates or campaign staff were talking about how the poll oversampled Rs. It's a nonsensical point for them to make just as it was for the Rs to make a week or two ago. They used the same methodology in both instances, as was the case when "Democrats were oversampled." Party affiliation as self-reported is largely a function of who sounded best to you most recently.

    All that said, it looks like the debate -- in the first polls fully reflecting its influence -- has pretty much equaled the Dem convention effect.

    This week's VP debate is sort of high-stakes, momentum-wise. If it's "ho-hum, who knows who won" (in the minds of people other than partisans,) then the next Presidential debate renews the real battle. Ditto if Biden punks Ryan. But if Ryan convincingly beats Biden, people will start cementing the mistaken impression that the Pubbies know what they're doing. :eek:

    This debate evened it up -- some of that effect will ebb, absent a big push one way or another, from events, ads, or the VP debate. That's an enormous effect for a debate to have, which I think just demonstrates exactly how bad Obama looked, and how much he forfeited by not directly calling Rmoney on the lies.

    PFnV
  10. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    24,845
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +233 / 8 / -13

    Daily Kos poll has Romney up 2%

    Daily Kos :: News Community Action


    Poll over samples D's by ~5%, R's by ~2% under samples I's by ~7%.

    Ob Ro U/O

    Democrat 87 11 2
    Republican 7 90 3
    Independent/‚ÄčOther 42 48 9


    Romney getting a small advantage among Dem/Rep crossover voters and lead among Independents, consistent with the Battleground poll, Rasmussen & Gallup. As usual the only differences is the sample model used.

    This combined with polls showing a 2-3% races in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, not good for Obama.
  11. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,107
    Likes Received:
    218
    Ratings:
    +515 / 6 / -2

    I think the PEW poll, this time around at least, is somewhat more indicitive of where things are right now, than the last poll was. I do think the sample is important to a degree. Oversampling to far to one party or demographic certainly skews results. I think the previous Pew poll was highly innaccurate because of it's heavily skewed sample. I think this poll, while not as extreme, might be a little too heavy the other way around. What can't be predicted, is what the exit sample of actual voters will look like. We can guesstimate by way of past elections, and maybe add in a few points for enthusiasm, but we won't really know who's going to show up until November 6th. I think the race is close, and will remain so (barring any surprises) until election day. Four weeks in politics is a long time.
  12. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact On the Roster

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    11,258
    Likes Received:
    169
    Ratings:
    +400 / 4 / -10

    0-0 is more accurate
  13. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact On the Roster

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    11,258
    Likes Received:
    169
    Ratings:
    +400 / 4 / -10

    give up the intentional misspelling.......it necessitates the perception that you are completely bereft of intelligent thought


  14. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,762
    Likes Received:
    178
    Ratings:
    +360 / 11 / -27

    But there is no bump in the projected electoral college vote???
  15. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,762
    Likes Received:
    178
    Ratings:
    +360 / 11 / -27

    With that line of reasoning the current polls are all 0-9.....

    That might be confusing for some..
  16. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    24,845
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +233 / 8 / -13



    They haven't flushed the pre debate polls from their average... ;)
  17. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    24,845
    Likes Received:
    107
    Ratings:
    +233 / 8 / -13

    In latest Ohio poll using a +9% D sample Romney is leading and he is up +20% among independents.

    Ohio 2012 Presidential Ballot

    Obama is collapsing like a house of cards. Biden better come up big.
  18. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2005
    Messages:
    15,675
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -1

    #75 Jersey

    It may look close, but there's so many polling methods flying around out there, the information is bound to average out into a "dead heat" because of the sheer amount of polling being done. For all we know, Romney could be up by 15%!
  19. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,107
    Likes Received:
    218
    Ratings:
    +515 / 6 / -2

    There are far too many polls now, and it's almost impossible for the average person to either understand the different methodologies used, or have the time to research them. I personally think the election is within the margin of error, one way or the other. I think it's tightened, or shifted a bit post debate, and I think it's very likely we could see certain events bounce it back and forth again. What's kinda crazy is that any result is actually possible. We could see an Obama or Romney romp on election day, or a squeeker for one side. We could see a popular vote win and electoral result loss (shades of 2000, please no). Or, and this is one that I think might actually happen, we could see one candidate actually win comfortably in the Electoral College, but do so by winning a series of states by a tiny majority of the vote. 1-2% wins in say Florida, Ohio, Virginia, etc. for one candidate. Any outcome at this point, wouldn't surprise me at all. How it's spun post election will also be interesting as well. I just hope the winner doesn't say post election ala GW that he was given a mandate, when 120,000 votes in Ohio were the difference between winning and losing. If Obama wins, hopefully he understand that he just had a very contentious election against a very flawed opponent. If Romney wins he hopefully will know that his victory was more about the publics distaste for Obama than it is about their trust in Romney. I'm really curious to see how it all plays out.
  20. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,762
    Likes Received:
    178
    Ratings:
    +360 / 11 / -27

    Secrets.....

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps she caught a glimpse of that Secret Mormon Undergarment???

    [​IMG]

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>