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Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatsFanInVa, Dec 8, 2011.

  1. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'll be poll-watching the next few days.

    A couple days ago, in Kansas, the President delivered a Teddy Roosevelt Progressive-style speech in Kansas, and went after "trickle down" economics.

    As of yesterday's results (12/8) on the Gallup app compiled at 1 pm, his positives/negatives were 41/51. If they stick there, I'm thinking the message doesn't resonate... if they move much off that mark, I'm thinking the opposite is likely the case (although the daily #s are pretty volatile.)

    I think you can get the #s on the website too, but if you have a smart-phone, download the app.

    I'll keep you guys posted the next few days.

    Caveat: Of course the daily polls also reflect events other than those you're looking for... so it's all out the window if, for example, Iran preemptively surrenders and converts voluntarily to liberal democracy.

    PFnV
  2. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

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    ABC news conducted a poll in November that showed 55% of American voters believe Obama will be a one-term president. Only 37% believed Obama would be re-elected. I found that surprising...almost shocking

    It's early and things will change many times over the next 12 months. Honestly, it doesn't feel like 3 years have passed since he was elected. Which just means I'm 3 years older....:mad:

    The poll results are 10 seconds into the video.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/email...yndra-postpone-layoffs-till/story?id=14957973
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2011
  3. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Try to focus, PR. [Edit - sounds harsher than I want. Point is, what I want to do is tease out the effect of this particular direction for Obama's numbers.]

    This isn't another thread about "will he win or will he lose?" As we all know that's going to change, up or down, especially once we have a choice between him or [your name here.]

    However, this thread is about whether the neo-progressive tack is good or bad for his prospects.

    PFnV
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2011
  4. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

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    Then I think you should have written...

    "this thread is about whether the neo-progressive tack is good or bad for his prospects."

    in your opening post because nothing you wrote there indicates the above intention. You mentioned both his Kansas speech and scenario's that would/may change polls

    Neither Obama nor any other candidate should ever try to deliver the "right message" that resonates with the most voters. They should just be who they are and stick to it no matter what, shouldn't they?

    Isn't the valid question here "Is Obama truly a neo-progressive or is he just trying to be what voters want?"

    I am focused...I just don't know what I'm focused upon. ;)
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2011
  5. The Brandon Five

    The Brandon Five Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I know the forum has been focused on his joke about being in Texas during that speech rather than the actual speech, but I thought overall it was pretty good. I don't know how many Americans will sit through or read the whole thing.

    I agree that we need to restore the % of GDP that are paid in wages to historic levels to revive the economy. The issue is how best to do that...Obama wants to dump more money into the public schools. We already are among the tops in the world in spending per student and % of GDP spent on education.

    [​IMG]

    If you look at the amount spent on post-secondary education, we are the top.

    http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/pdf/coe_ifn.pdf

    I don't know how to restore the balance between know-nothing execs and people who are doing actual work. As you discussed elsewhere, in some ways we might have become victims of our own productivity gains as continued automation and optimization reduce the need for human labor. I can't help but think that the contracting of family size makes that harder to navigate. Take a large family where you have not only a couple of brothers and sisters, but many aunts, uncles and cousins. In that scenario if only a few of them have well-paying jobs there is a natural mechanism to share the wealth (assuming that the high-earners are not selfish a-holes).

    The liberal approach (I assume) would be to try to replicate that dynamic with government making us all one big family, but I am afraid that in practice that does not appear to work well (in my opinion). I don't know what the answer is, but I think at the root the issue is not only a corrosion of virtue in our culture but that so many of the people who are in positions of power in corporations and the gubmint have no idea what they are doing.
  6. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

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    I have never heard of a family (among those I personally know) that shares their wealth with extened family members. But then again, I don't know anyone extremely wealthy. However, I know a lot of people who have HH incomes in the $200-$300k range. I've never heard anyone talk about sending checks to family members.

    Aunts, uncles and cousins? I highly doubt many "share the wealth" with anyone other than their immediate family members.

    Do you know people who actually share their wealth like that?
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2011
  7. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Did he use his teleprompter----------------------------:confused:
  8. The Brandon Five

    The Brandon Five Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    It doesn't need to take the form of sending checks. You can buy clothes for nieces and nephews, offer to let someone stay in your home for awhile, give them furniture or appliances that you are replacing with newer ones....Those that are doing well can provide assistance to their kin in may ways.

    My point is that families can make sure that the basic needs of all members are taken care of. There is no reason for a cousin to go hungry or an elderly aunt to spend money she doesn't really have to have work done around the house.
  9. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #11 Jersey

    Yes......................
  10. PatsFanInVa

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    Gallup update, today, 1 p.m.

    Approve +1 42%
    Disapprove -1 50%

    Meh, One more day, tops. I don't think this gave him the bump he wanted. The question's whether he had no coverage, or whether people didn't resonate with it. I thought it was pretty decent.

    PR, to your question: I'm in communications for a living. I don't think for a minute that just spewing whatever crap comes to mind is going to be either good thinking or good messaging.

    Sometimes you play checkers, sometimes you play chess. Do I think Obama's a progressive at heart? Meh. Center left. But he can get in touch with his inner progressive if the timing works.

    Obviously, being "just yourself" results in dumbass moments where "just yourself" sneers at the media, especially when they're more informed than you, and other moments where you make unsupported statements, or losing arguments because people are ready for A and you went all the way to B too soon.

    So your "should" -- which you should really banish from your vocabulary just to see how it feels -- is only appropriate if you're thinking of a drinking buddy, not a politician.

    You guys probably think "Aha! That's the problem right there!"

    Nah. I don't support Newt style or Romney style flip-flopping. I CAN support centrist choices of emphasis -- when you push which point. I was never that sure that Obama should have pushed health before jobs, for example, and he burned all his capital by the time he was on jobs. But he did get his stimulus, he did get his deal at Christmas of 2010, and he has presided over private-sector job growth. Point is though, it might have been more robust had he prioritized jobs first and health care second. Does that mean that he is only now worried about jobs? If he did it in the other order, does that mean that at heart, he REALLY only cases about jobs and not health care?

    No, it means he's chosen the moment he wanted for the issue he wanted, for whatever reason.

    Ten minutes after Joe the Plumber might not have been the moment to talk progressivism. After a few months of the tea party congress, with the Occupy movement camped out in people's heads, it might just be the time to get in touch with your inner Teddy Roosevelt.

    PFnV
  11. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Dude, it was a unnoteworthy, routine speech that he gives all the time. It received little more than the usual amount of press coverage. I bet 99.99% of Americans never even saw the speech or read about it or anything like that. It just isn't going to impact his poll numbers one way of the other.

    You're taking the regular, everyday poll fluctuations and trying to find some causal relationship which simply isn't there.
  12. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I know a lot of wealthy folks( a family who has a very successful Sotheby's Agency, a family who owns a large moving company, a family who owns restaurants and an airlines support company, and a family who owns lumber companies and local restaurants etc.) who take care of their family, it can be in the form of decent transportation, funding their kids college, providing jobs, helping through a rough patch etc.

    They also are "kind" to long term friends as well.

    It is not always in the form of a check, it can be inkind as well... the adage that wealth begets wealth is obvious..
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2011
  13. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Big difference between choosing a path one thinks is right and choosing a path to aid an election. Many Americans have tired of the directionless President. Luckily for him the GOP slate is not much of a viable option either.
  14. mcgraw_wv

    mcgraw_wv Rookie

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    That's choice, and I think the wrong one. And yet another thing that some how has been lost through the latest generation. When I was a kid, I saw my grandfather help everyone he could. Now I don't see it at all, were all scared jealous squirles trying to protect every little thing we manage to put away.
  15. PatsFanInVa

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    When you were a kid, your grampa probably had to pay for a retirement say 30-40% shorter, and knew that people in the family would help him when it was his time. Also -- have to assume that was early on in the world of Medicare (i.e., less limits on it,) Social Security was still considered just about "constant," and a lot more people had traditional pensions (grampa may not have been drawing one, but many did -- so the assumption at large was much more "I've got it... what am I going to do, take it with me?")

    Gramps may have been in the "golden age" -- and, he hadn't been poisoned by images of "Young at heart" old folks on yachts or strolling their vineyards.

    But a couple generations before your grampa, being old was pretty much the best way you could predict that someone would be poor. He was probably just amazed that there was no alpo in his diet.

    Look around. The kids aren't exactly knocking it out of the part financially speaking. Retirement worries -- your own, your parents', your grandparents' -- are a very different set of concerns now than they were then.

    All that to say: his prospects were way better than he thought he'd be facing. Now, old folks' expectations among Boomers are about to crash into retirement realities: you have a retirement 40% longer, but everything that contributes to old folks' peace of mind is under attack.

    A generational compact that survives demographic bucking around in terms of cohort size solves that. You can also call such a compact a "ponzi scheme," as is popular among the right.

    My question is, whattayagonnado about all the old people?

    Seems like we have to think of that system as having to respond to those ups & downs, not being wiped out by the first big challenge.

    Okay done now.
  16. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #11 Jersey

    I think there are still families which help extended families - I know my own family has always pitched in for aunts, uncles, cousins, etc.. When I was growing up my unmarried aunt regularily bought my sister and I all of our clothes and shoes so my parents did not have to. She also paid my sister's tuition to a Catholic high school and, throughout all of our adult life, gave us each $100.00 a month whether we needed it or not.

    As kids we often helped my father clear the walks and driveways of older neighbors - there was never even a thought as to getting paid for it - it was just what you did. My kids did the same. It's just something you did for poorer or sicker people that you knew. I don't think as many people do things for others now days without expecting to be paid for it.

    There are people, however, who try to go that extra mile. I hired a lawn care service for my mother a few years ago when all of the grandchildren had moved away - the guy I hired realized how old my mother was and he often did "extras" without charging me. (Which sort of makes up for the con men who supposedly blacktopped her driveway for only $1,500.00!!!)

    But I digress. I think there are many families out there, still, who help support or care for extended family members. I think most of them are relatively (no pun intended) poor themselves, however. They either help pay a late phone bill or slip a few dollars every month for groceries or buy the kids shoes or clothes or pay tuition for a special school or pay for a doctor's appointment or bring dinner over three times a week or babysit for free while Mom goes to work.

    Tens of thousands of people would not get by if not for the generousity of family members.
  17. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

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    Let us not forget about the cost college these days. Add that to the worry over "having enough" for retirement! No wonder people are guarding what little they may have.

    Also, I'm getting tired of this "finding common ground" on this board.;)
  18. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    I know plenty. I am one. I'm the only one with a pick-up truck, trade skills and occasional vacancies.

    Most people who share with their family do so quietly. You should never talk about such things. Same goes for charity.
  19. The Brandon Five

    The Brandon Five Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I guess we're gonna have to tax the young people more to make up the "disparity"...what's that? The disparity works in the opposite way?

    US wealth gap between young and old is widest ever - Yahoo! News

  20. PatsFanInVa

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    Okay, two things:

    Thing 1, polls didn't budge, 3rd day the unfavorables gained a point, the favorables stayed flat. Basically, not a notable effect (thoroughly unscientific, but either coverage dim or speech boring.)

    Thing 2, B5 - you're seriously measuring net worth numbers of the old vs. the young?

    Thing 3, also @B5 - the old started out doing very badly say 50 years ago, and we've gotten them to where they can live on their own, for the most part. Hell, once they need it, we've gotten to where we house them.

    However, the question is what we do going forward. Do we reverse progress, and go back to where age was a straightforward predictor of poverty?

    Big picture people need to work a little longer. They need to save more whatever way they save. Most importantly, they need access to professional management at low fees, and risk pooling (especially longevity risk.)

    This can take many different forms. Or, we can not do it, and have gramma move in with us. For some families that is good, for others it is bad.

    It just is.

    PFnV

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