Welcome to PatsFans.com

Poll Numbers

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Real World, Jun 5, 2007.

  1. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,203
    Likes Received:
    236
    Ratings:
    +579 / 6 / -2

    We're so far away it's ridiculous, but never the less, this is a political forum, and I love numbers. Here are some poll numbers to think about:

    Kalifornia:

    New SurveyUSA poll out on the horse race in California showing Fred Thompson surging into a second place tie with John McCain, only 7 points behind Giuliani:

    Republicans
    Giuliani 28 (-6 vs. last poll May 4-6)
    F. Thompson 21 (+10)
    McCain 21 (nc)
    Romney 11 (-1)
    Gingrich 8 (-1)
    Undecided 3 (-2)

    Very little movement on the Democratic side in the last month according to SUSA:

    Democrats
    Clinton 46 (-2 vs. last poll May 4-6)
    Obama 28 (+1)
    Edwards 14 (-1)
    Undecided 4 (+1)


    June 5, 2007

    USA Today/Gallup: Obama Leads Clinton

    Posted by TOM BEVAN

    USA Today/Gallup is out with a new national poll showing Barack Obama edging ahead of Hillary Clinton. The new poll represents a net ten-point swing in Obama's favor over the last three weeks:

    Democrats
    Obama 30 (+4 vs. last poll May 10-13)
    Clinton 29 (-6)
    Gore (+1)
    Edwards (-1)
    Richardson 3 (+1)
    Biden 3 (+1)

    This is only the second poll to date that has shown Obama in the lead - Scott Rasmussen had Obama moving into a 2-point lead over Clinton in a survey back in late April, but he fell back to an 8-point deficit the following week and has trailed her ever since. Clinton's lead in the new RCP National Average dipped to +8.8%.

    On the Republican side, Giuliani bounced back a bit and Romney moved up, while McCain slid and Fred Thompson remained static:

    Republicans
    Giuliani 32 (+3 vs. last poll May 10-13)
    McCain 19 (-4)
    Romney 12 (+4)
    F. Thompson 11 (-1)
    Gingrich (+2)
    Huckabee 2 (+1)
    Tancredo 2 (+1)
    Brownback 1 (-1)
    Paul 1
    Hunter 1

    Giuliani leads by 11.6% in the updated RCP National Average.



    June 5, 2007

    New Rasmussen: Thompson 2nd

    Posted by JUSTIN MILLER
    Rasmussen released his GOP numbers today and Fred Thompson has vaulted to second place.

    Giuliani 23
    Thompson 17
    Romney 15
    McCain 14
    Gingrich 9

    Giuliani leads McCain by +11.4% in the RCP Average while Thompson is third with 11.6%, less than one point ahead of Romney.


    New Hampshire Poll: Clinton Way Ahead

    Posted by JUSTIN MILLER
    A new Franklin Pierce/WBZ poll in New Hampshire taken yesterday after the debate shows Hillary Clinton extending her lead:

    Democrats
    Clinton 38 (+6 vs. last poll March 13)
    Obama 16 (-9)
    Edwards 13 (-3)
    Gore 8 (-2)
    Richardson 8 (+5)
    Undecided 10 (+1)

    Clinton holds a 14.7-point lead in the RCP Average for New Hampshire.



    IOWA Polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/iowa-primary.html

    South Carolina Polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/south_carolina-primary.html

    Florida Polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/florida-primary.html
     
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    I realize the lure of Thompson may disappear the moment he opens his mouth but I think it's his to lose as he's the only one who, IMO, doesn't have a significant turn off to the Republican base.

    My gut says Obama fades and Hillary and Edwards end up fighting to see who can be the most left and that Edwards eventually wins that.

    Thompson vs. Edwards, now there's a generic sounding race :)
     
  3. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2007
    Messages:
    8,550
    Likes Received:
    19
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -0

    I agree about Thompson, but I think Edwards is unelectable.

    He gonna fall with all the style and grace of a meteor. Then again, falling from 11-14 range isn't really all that long a trip.
     
  4. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    18,184
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +294 / 12 / -10

    I think Thompson will have a hard time getting the nomination if this article has some truth to it:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19049846/

    But, besides that, he also faces the difficult problem that most of the best campaign talent (organizers, fundraisers, etc.) in the Republican Party is already committed to the other candidates. In primaries, that's very important because the abiity to generate turnout is more important than anything that the polls show.

    The other thing, I think, is that Thompson will not seem fresh for long. Not only is he quite old, he positioning himself as a Reaganesque candidate, and I think that kind of approach is risky for it will make him look second rate.

    As far as Democrats go, I don't think Edwards has a good shot, and I see it as between Hillary and Obama. Right now, it's very much a tossup. Either of them can beat any Republican in the next election if the political climate remains roughly like it is today.
     
  5. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    Of course the Liberal media chooses to call him lazy - others would call it working normal hours and letting his people do their jobs. Reagan was said to be "lazy", Carter was one of the hardest working Presidents . . . how did that work out ?
     
  6. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    18,184
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +294 / 12 / -10

    The rumors that he's lazy came from Republican staffers, but they may very well be staffers for McCain and others in the race, I don't know. At any rate, if what the article says is true, with his idea for an unconventional campaign, it's clear to me that he won't win. Primaries are about reaching individuals, not reaching the public at large. Reagan was not lazy on the campaign trail. He was a very effective and active campaigner, as was Bush II.

    Perhaps your taking these accusations so hard is because the Republicans are such a sorry bunch that Fred Thompson actually looks pretty good?
     
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    I assume you meant "will beat", not "can beat" ??? The Marsian (Kucinich) CAN win, as can any Republican.

    As I've said before, the Dems do have the star power candidates but I'm not sure any of them are overpowering general election candidates. If they win it's likely anti-Republican more than pro-Democrat but I think the desire for a split government and the public's realization that the Republican nominee in NOT BUSH will eek it out for the good guys.
     
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    I like Thompson, from what I know of him anyway, and I like Romney. I would be fully satisifed with either one. I know RW hates Romney but I'm not sure he's ever given a "Real World" example of why I should feel the same way.

    FWIW, I consider Obama, Hillary and Edwards to be a sorry bunch too :D
     
  9. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2007
    Messages:
    8,550
    Likes Received:
    19
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -0

    I'm still waiting for a candidate {on any side} I could stomach.
     
  10. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    18,184
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +294 / 12 / -10

    I'm impressed you were able to deduce what I was talking about.

    Hillary might be. She has a very large base, which makes it easier to build coalitions and get new voters.

    I think Republicans often delude themselves into thinking that Americans don't like Democratic ideas, but as I've said before the general direction of our country has been towards liberalism and Democratic goals. I think it's far easier to make a list of major Democratic legislative victories than Republican ones, and I think that reflects the nature of our country. Americans like Republicans as a breather after the Democrats get things done.
     
  11. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    18,184
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +294 / 12 / -10

    Do you like the Romney who was pro-abortion and pro-gay rights? Do you like his mandatory health care in MA? What do you like about Romney?

    At least they're not decrepit. The only Republican who has any pizzazz is Romney. The rest are a bit over the hill.
     
  12. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    I don't think so.

    Americans do want to get out of Iraq. And they do want to do something about health care costs. And they do want to protect social security (God only knows why on the last one). Those are all wins for Democrats unless the Republican candidate has something there.

    But Americans like plenty of Republican ideals too like lower spending (I said Republican ideals, not Bushian), protection of the right to bear arms (I disagree on that), basic capitalism, no socialized medicine, etc.


    There's plenty of issues on both sides, it's just a matter of who expresses them best and who can placate to the middle well.
     
  13. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    I don't like Romney's pro death stance but when I look at a President it's the destination he arrived at, not the journey.

    The health care thing, to be honest, I don't know exactly how that works in MA.

    What do I like about Romney ? I think he'd be a true Republican in terms of spending and taxes. And I like the fact that he's actually succeeded in provate sector life in many ways - it shows a general competence, unlike most people who are elected President who have been politicians their whole life. Well, I guess Edwards was a successful ambulence chaser - but without getting into name calling, Romney has tackled business, the Olympics, politics and has been generally successful at them all.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2007
  14. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    Oh, I forgot gay rights.

    For the last time :

    I'm for gay rights - everyone has the right to be gay.

    I'm just against :

    Gay Marriage - for reasons I've outlined a thousand times.
    Anti gay discrimination but I'm against all anti discrimination laws, not just gay.
     
  15. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,203
    Likes Received:
    236
    Ratings:
    +579 / 6 / -2

    Romney is Hillary Clinton. Sounds real nice, moves around with the wind, is tall, has a strong arm.... Romney and Clinton are those combine Mike Mamula types. Runs a 4.43 - 40, verticals 38", and does 28 reps of 225lbs. The problem is, when you look at their history before the combine, watch the tape, and have to live with them after you draft em, you realize what Dennis Green did, which is that "they were who you thought they were". :D

    My biggest beef with both is that they are finger in the wind politicians. Suits if you will. To me, those are the most dangerous kind.
     
  16. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,203
    Likes Received:
    236
    Ratings:
    +579 / 6 / -2

    Let's not confuse the natural evolution of a civilization with the liberal political ideology that you speak of.
     
  17. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,203
    Likes Received:
    236
    Ratings:
    +579 / 6 / -2

    After watching CNN last night, it is clear to me that Obama will undoubtedly be the Democratic nominee by the time it matters. At this point, I'd be happy about that.
     
  18. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,656
    Likes Received:
    221
    Ratings:
    +532 / 13 / -14

    #24 Jersey

    I was under the impression that Obama didn't do well - that's what Frank Luntz was showing on Hannity & Combs anyway.

    BTW, Combs' argument for Hillary that "only 6 Senators read the NIE report" before voting on the war is so pitiful - I guess in his mind 94 wrongs make a right :mad:
     
  19. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    18,184
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +294 / 12 / -10

    What's the difference?
     
  20. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    27,203
    Likes Received:
    236
    Ratings:
    +579 / 6 / -2

    The difference is that societies naturally evolve, whereas you seem to think societies simply adopt liberal political ideology and support it. 20% of our population I think, describes itself as politically liberal. There is a difference in natural maturity and evolution, and the political wants of that specific group.
     

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>