Every year for Pats playoff games, I look at how NE and their opponent scored on and defensed their opposition in relation to how those teams did. (Simply put, scoring 21 points on Baltimore is more impressive than scoring 28 on Detroit - just doing this same thing for all teams faced by both teams). Since I have started this in 2003, it has been right every single time, regretably even last year. I feel that points scored is a good reference point because it gives credit to teams that can score on defense and special teams. In 2003 and 2004 I used totals for the entire season, but like last year, I am not going to do that this year, at least for the Jet game. In this matchup, I think it makes more sense to count from the previous matchup on. For you lurking Jet fans, I am doing this partially because NE has improved, but primarily because NY has been a totally different team since their bye week. Doing it this way actually works in NY's favor. Since NY's bye week (including the NE game, which obviously works even more in NY's favor) the Jets the following details: PF - 19.5 PA - 12.8 The average of their opponents' season averages are: PA - 19.4 PF - 18.7 The Jets have scored .1 more than their opposition has allowed, on average (19.5-19.4) and allowed 5.9 less for a combined score of +6. Now that I think my methodology is clear, NE has the following breakdown from the Jet game on: PF - 23.5 vs 20.6 allowed by the oppositing ~ +2.9 PA - 15.4 vs. 20.1 scored by opposition ~ +4.7 Total score ~ 7.6 The two are closer than I thought when I started on this venture, but NE is clearly ahead and that is all that has mattered in the past. This is good news. It is interesting that it is the Jets, not the Pats that have held the opposition further below their averages during this time. Furthermore, both teams had pretty ugly losses 4 weeks ago and closed with three straight wins. Over the two team's respective streaks: NY PF - 20.7 vs. 19.6 ~ +1.1 PA - 8.7 (!) vs. 14.8 ~ +6.1 Total score ~ 7.2 NE PF - 34.7 (!) vs. 21.7 ~ +13 PA - 17 vs. 20.1 ~ +3.1 Total score ~ 16.1 As impressive as the Jets' total points allowed over their streak is, it is only marginally better than how they had been doing in the games prior. They just played three dreadful offenses. It still was better than NE's, though. What we have to hope for is that Pony's "turncoat" factor doesn't raise its ugly head, because NE has just been killing defenses lately. Another thing to consider is the fact that NE's final two opponents had legitimate playoff hopes while NY faced two teams long out of it and on other running on fumes. I put more stock in the numbers over the longer term, but everything seems to indicate to me the following odds: 20% Jets win a close game 45% NE wins a close game 20% NE wins a moderately close game, but the game was rarely in doubt 15% NE wins in a blowout Edited to add that I ignored home/away factors because both played two away games and the weakest opponent for both was at home. Also, I used full season totals in calcuating my averages, not the numbers for those teams over the same time. If anything, that helps the Jets, but only marginally because both played teams (Miami & TN) that were better later in the year than before.