Please do not re-sign Varitek !

[JoeSixPat]

Varitek's value isn't his bat - though last year was pretty bad one might think his personal difficulties and divorce might have played a role.

His ability is in helping pictures reduce their ERA. Can that be quantified? Not without comparing him to a bad catcher who can't call a game.

But is his unquestioned expertise as a game calling catcher worth, say half an earned run a game?

If it is, and maybe that's a conservative estimate - then add 65 RBIs to the 43 he batted in.

Would you be happy with Varitek if he had 110 RBIs? Most people would be - that'd put him just slightly behind Youkilis.

So factoring how he lowers the pitching staff's ERA that's what you've actually got. So try to recognize and appreciate what he is and what we would have if he's re-signed, even if his bat continues to be less than outstanding.

 

[Foley]

Varitek's value isn't his bat - though last year was pretty bad one might think his personal difficulties and divorce might have played a role.

His ability is in helping pictures reduce their ERA. Can that be quantified? Not without comparing him to a bad catcher who can't call a game.

But is his unquestioned expertise as a game calling catcher worth, say half an earned run a game?

To an extent. Catchers ERA can be a flawed stat, but it has some value.

With Varitek behind the plate pitchers had a 3.66ERA in 2008. With Kevin Cash they had a 4.81ERA. Only 181 of the 372IP Cash caught last year was Tim Wakefield and his 4.18ERA, so for the other 191IP that Cash caught pitchers had an ERA over 5. Kottaras and Ross caught very little, but pitchers had a 7.88ERA and 5.40ERA with them behind the plate. Overall, Varitek had the second best Catchers ERA in the majors among those qualified.

So last year, the difference between Varitek and any other catcher the Red Sox had was worth more than half a run per game.

 

[Wildo7]

To an extent. Catchers ERA can be a flawed stat, but it has some value.

With Varitek behind the plate pitchers had a 3.66ERA in 2008. With Kevin Cash they had a 4.81ERA. Only 181 of the 372IP Cash caught last year was Tim Wakefield and his 4.18ERA, so for the other 191IP that Cash caught pitchers had an ERA over 5. Kottaras and Ross caught very little, but pitchers had a 7.88ERA and 5.40ERA with them behind the plate. Overall, Varitek had the second best Catchers ERA in the majors among those qualified.

So last year, the difference between Varitek and any other catcher the Red Sox had was worth more than half a run per game.

I agree that Varitek's ability behind the plate is probably second to none, but with Cash you could argue that that's a limited amount of experience to have with the other pitchers, and I'm willing to guess they were mostly bottom of the rotation pitchers.

 

[Lifer]

They should go with Scott Hatteberg or John Flaherty.

 

[Foley]

I agree that Varitek's ability behind the plate is probably second to none, but with Cash you could argue that that's a limited amount of experience to have with the other pitchers, and I'm willing to guess they were mostly bottom of the rotation pitchers.

Not having as much experience with the pitchers is a good point, and a point that further shows the need to retain Varitek. No other catcher has the same amount of experience with the Red Sox staff, so they'll be a bit of a learning curve with whoever they get. Someone like Teagarden would have to adjust to a new team, a new pitching staff, and adjust to starting full time in the majors for the first time. A lot to ask for from a rookie. Getting someone like him, giving him a lot of playing time so he can adjust to everything, and then giving him the full reigns in 2010 is the best bet.

 

[Wildo7]

Not having as much experience with the pitchers is a good point, and a point that further shows the need to retain Varitek. No other catcher has the same amount of experience with the Red Sox staff, so they'll be a bit of a learning curve with whoever they get. Someone like Teagarden would have to adjust to a new team, a new pitching staff, and adjust to starting full time in the majors for the first time. A lot to ask for from a rookie. Getting someone like him, giving him a lot of playing time so he can adjust to everything, and then giving him the full reigns in 2010 is the best bet.

If they can hang on to Varitek for 1-2 years and ease in Teagarden or Saltalamacchia that'd be ideal IMO. Tek didn't seem to react well to being pinch hit for the few times that Tito did it this year, so I hope that that transition can go smoothly (if it happens) and that Tek is able to reconcile that with his competitive pride.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

To an extent. Catchers ERA can be a flawed stat, but it has some value.

With Varitek behind the plate pitchers had a 3.66ERA in 2008. With Kevin Cash they had a 4.81ERA. Only 181 of the 372IP Cash caught last year was Tim Wakefield and his 4.18ERA, so for the other 191IP that Cash caught pitchers had an ERA over 5. Kottaras and Ross caught very little, but pitchers had a 7.88ERA and 5.40ERA with them behind the plate. Overall, Varitek had the second best Catchers ERA in the majors among those qualified.

So last year, the difference between Varitek and any other catcher the Red Sox had was worth more than half a run per game.

You forgot to mention that Cash only catches Wakefield.

If Beckett, Dice-K, Lester and Schilling (pre 2008) pitched to Cash or Mirabelli, I am sure there catching era would be better.

Imagine Wakefields era with Varitek behind the plate all season.

Don't forget to mention the great job Tek does with the young pitchers.
Clay Buchholz will probably need a psychiatrist after pitching to Varitek
last season.

 

[Foley]

You forgot to mention that Cash only catches Wakefield.

I didn't because that is wrong. Read my post:

Only 181 of the 372IP Cash caught last year was Tim Wakefield and his 4.18ERA, so for the other 191IP that Cash caught pitchers had an ERA over 5

Cash caught Lester three times and Matsuzaka once (He never caught Beckett). Their splits from Cash to Varitek are fairly large. Okajima, Lopez and Aardsma had a huge split, and Papelbon, Delcarmen and Masterson each had splits in favor of Varitek too. Small sample sizes all around, but the all point to the same conclusion.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I didn't because that is wrong. Read my post:Cash caught Lester three times and Matsuzaka once (He never caught Beckett). Their splits from Cash to Varitek are fairly large. Okajima, Lopez and Aardsma had a huge split, and Papelbon, Delcarmen and Masterson each had splits in favor of Varitek too. Small sample sizes all around, but the all point to the same conclusion.

ESPN use to have the CERA for catchers for multiple seasons.
They no longer have those stats available

Please feel free to include a link to your stats in the future.

While you are looking up those stats again, look at Teks percentage of
catching base stealers.

Oh yeah... that don't matter.... either does his pathetic batting average.
All that matters is game he calls. He gets all the credit when pitchers do
a good job and none of the blame when they get shelled.

Feel free to look up Becketts stats too.
I have a feeling that the Marlins catcher dujour had a better cera than Varitek.

Beckett's last 3 years with the Marlins
2003 - 3.04 era
2004 - 3.79 era
2005 - 3.38 era

Beckett's 1st season with Varitek - 5.01 era.

Sure the NL era is lower than the AL, but it is about a half run, not 1.5+

If Varitek is so valuable..... why hasn't he receive 1 offer from another team ?
After the 2004 season Varitek was a free agent, and no other team made him an offer.
He is a free agent again and he is getting zero offers from other teams.

 

[Foley]

ESPN use to have the CERA for catchers for multiple seasons.
They no longer have those stats available

Please feel free to include a link to your stats in the future.

THT

While you are looking up those stats again, look at Teks percentage of
catching base stealers.

Oh yeah... that don't matter.... either does his pathetic batting average.
All that matters is game he calls. He gets all the credit when pitchers do
a good job and none of the blame when they get shelled.

His CS% is slightly below average, 5 of 8 in the AL among qualified catchers. Not great, but not terrible.

And if you don't see blame on Varitek you're not looking hard enough. He is constantly criticized for having the pitcher throw a high fastball out of the zone that no one ever chases, and for not having Papelbon throw his offspeed pitches as much as he should, or for any other number of things. Its not all sunshine and rainbows for Varitek.

Feel free to look up Becketts stats too.
I have a feeling that the Marlins catcher dujour had a better cera than Varitek.

Beckett's last 3 years with the Marlins
2003 - 3.04 era
2004 - 3.79 era
2005 - 3.38 era

Beckett's 1st season with Varitek - 5.01 era.

Sure the NL era is lower than the AL, but it is about a half run, not 1.5+

Thats all great, but completely irrelevant. Obviously pitching staffs are all different, so your run of the mill catcher would have a great CERA catching the Blue Jays and a great catcher would have a poor CERA catching the Rangers, but thats not the point. As I said, CERA is flawed. Its flawed when you do this to it. It only has value when you use it to compare catchers on the same staff, ie Varitek v Cash.

If Varitek is so valuable..... why hasn't he receive 1 offer from another team ?
After the 2004 season Varitek was a free agent, and no other team made him an offer.
He is a free agent again and he is getting zero offers from other teams.

Varitek's value is only to Boston. He knows the staff and the pitchers tendencies, so there is no learning curve for him here. With any other team he would have to learn all that. So other teams would be giving up a draft pick for a poor offensive catcher than needs to learn a new pitching staff from scratch. Not worth it.

 

[Real World]

Varitek is hugely overrated IMO. He can't hit for sh!t, and couldn't throw Wilfork out trying to steal second base. I think he's good with a pitching staff, but those types of alcolades are very subjective. Tek's got great arms throwing to him, that teams like KC can't afford. Familiarity is an important point though. Bringing in someone knew, would obviously screw with the continuity that exists now. I think in the end, Tek resigns for two years, and somewhere inside $16-22 million. It'll depend on how willing each side is to compromise. I still can't understand why he rejected arbitration. No team is paying him $10 million, and losing draft picks. I guess there's always a sucker out there somewhere, but I just don't see who that sucker could be.

The bottom line is that there aren't many catchers of value out there. It's easy to say replace him, but with who? I think the Sox potential aquisition of Texiera, would be good news to anyone who wants Tek back. Tex's bat will help offset the dimished production from Varitek. The Sox still have a shaky bottom of the order though. They'll score runs, but an 8, 9 of Tek, & Lowrie/Lugo is weak, especially if Ellsbury struggles in the leadoff spot.

 

[Lansdowne]

Remember the Dice-K sweepstakes? Well, I think undoubtedly this plays out the same way.

In 2006 offseason, Matsuzaka was a Boras client. Same with J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. Wanna bet there was an agreement between Boras and Theo about a package of those guys? "You want Dice-K, you're gonna have to overpay Drew and Lugo also."

I think this will be the case with Teixeira and Varitek.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

THT

His CS% is slightly below average, 5 of 8 in the AL among qualified catchers. Not great, but not terrible.

And if you don't see blame on Varitek you're not looking hard enough. He is constantly criticized for having the pitcher throw a high fastball out of the zone that no one ever chases, and for not having Papelbon throw his offspeed pitches as much as he should, or for any other number of things. Its not all sunshine and rainbows for Varitek.
Thats all great, but completely irrelevant. Obviously pitching staffs are all different, so your run of the mill catcher would have a great CERA catching the Blue Jays and a great catcher would have a poor CERA catching the Rangers, but thats not the point. As I said, CERA is flawed. Its flawed when you do this to it. It only has value when you use it to compare catchers on the same staff, ie Varitek v Cash.

Varitek's value is only to Boston. He knows the staff and the pitchers tendencies, so there is no learning curve for him here. With any other team he would have to learn all that. So other teams would be giving up a draft pick for a poor offensive catcher than needs to learn a new pitching staff from scratch. Not worth it.

As of now we are out of the Teixeira chase.
I hope they also tell Boras that they do not want Tek back, and thank you
for turning down arbitration. We will be delighted to take the 2 top draft picks. There had been a rumor flying around that if the Sox got Teixeira, they would sign Tek (package deal for Boras - same as Dice-K & Drew).

I don't agree with you FOLEY, but I do respect your baseball knowledge
and thank you for providing the link.

 

[JoeSixPat]

To an extent. Catchers ERA can be a flawed stat, but it has some value.

With Varitek behind the plate pitchers had a 3.66ERA in 2008. With Kevin Cash they had a 4.81ERA. Only 181 of the 372IP Cash caught last year was Tim Wakefield and his 4.18ERA, so for the other 191IP that Cash caught pitchers had an ERA over 5. Kottaras and Ross caught very little, but pitchers had a 7.88ERA and 5.40ERA with them behind the plate. Overall, Varitek had the second best Catchers ERA in the majors among those qualified.

So last year, the difference between Varitek and any other catcher the Red Sox had was worth more than half a run per game.

Thanks for that breakdown - and good call removing the Wakefield numbers of course.

For anyone wondering why other teams wouldn't be as keen on Varitek as the Sox, the answer is actually pretty simple - for the most part Varitek knows the majority of his pitchers and their capaibilities, as well as most of the bats in the AL East they face most often.

Send him out to a completely new staff in a different division or conference and you're still getting a good catcher - but that half an earned run per game drops signfiicantly.

That makes him more valuable to the Red Sox than to any other team, but it also means its unlikely they another team is going to outbid the Red Sox for him.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Remember the Dice-K sweepstakes? Well, I think undoubtedly this plays out the same way.

In 2006 offseason, Matsuzaka was a Boras client. Same with J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. Wanna bet there was an agreement between Boras and Theo about a package of those guys? "You want Dice-K, you're gonna have to overpay Drew and Lugo also."

I think this will be the case with Teixeira and Varitek.

If I remember the Dice-K situation he

#1 - wasn't a free agent and
#2 - the Sox and other teams had a sealed high bid situation submitted to the Japanese team who held his rights, for the right to negotiate with them, and once they won there were no other teams invovled in the bidding

This makes it completely unlike anything Boras has ever been involved in before because

#1 - there was no opportunity to inflate the right to negotiate portion of the "sweepstakes and
#2 - effectively the Sox were the only team that could have negotiated with him once that happened.

How is that similar to this situation where there are multiple teams bidding for Teixeira and to a lesser extent Varitek, and Boras can play them off of each other and/or declare them to be a package deal?