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Playoffs...is 11-5 Good Enough?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by IcyPatriot, Mar 28, 2006.

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  1. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    [​IMG]

    Why I post this is simple. The improvement of the Browns now sets the stage for the AFC North to be the power divsion of the AFC. The Patriots won the divison at 10-6 last year. Will 11-5 be good enough to guarantee a trip to the playoffs??? Not so clear cut now.​

    The chances have never been better for the 2 Wild Card teams from the AFC needing 12-4 records to make the playoffs. We will have all we can handle with Miami for sure but the Jets and Bills are weak. Seems to me a split with the Dolphins will be hard to overcome as other tiebreakers will be hard to attain.

    Hard to see any of the teams above faltering this year, except for injuries. It's easy to see the Browns join this group...they were 6-10 but at least 2 of those losses were due to new coaching team break in period.

    We have 8 games against teams with winning records. 5 of which are teams with 11-5 records and better. If we split those 8 games then there's 4 losses.

    We then have to clean the slate against the rest and sweeping the Jets could be a problem. If we split with the Jets and the above comes tue then we finish at 11-5...a record that may not be enough even for the Wild Card.

    The only way I see us going 12-4 is if Belichick/Pioli hit a grand slam in the draft...A WR & LB and CB ready to start, that's alot to ask for. We don't really need those players to start, but let's face it...will injuries stay away for once???
    2005 Playoff Teams.......................2006 Opponent W/L 2005
    Z - Colts.............14-2............................Colts: 14-2
    Z - Broncos.........13-3.............................Broncos 13-3
    X - Jaguars.........12-4.............................Jaguars: 12-4
    Z - Bengals.........11-5.............................Bears: 11-5
    X - Steelers........11-5............................Bengals: 11-5
    Z - Patriots.........10-6............................Dolphins: 9-7
    NA-Chiefs...........10-6............................Vikings: 9-7
    ...........................................................Bills: 5-11
    ...........................................................Lions: 5-11
    ...........................................................Jets: 4-12
    ...........................................................Packers: 4-12
    ...........................................................Titans: 4-12
    ...........................................................Texans: 2-14


    Are the chances slim of making the Wild Card if we go 11-5?
    Does another 10-6 year put us out?
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2006
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    A few comments :

    1) I can't see the Dolphins winning the division. We should win the East.

    2) I don't think the Browns are nearly as improved as many. Sure they spent money but Bentley is the only big time guy they got. Jurivicious replaces Bryant, a marginal upgrade. McGinest and Ted Washington average about 36 years old. Braylon Edwards and Winslow are coming off major injuries and they still have basically a rookie at QB.

    3) Even if the Browns are better it may help potential WC teams with that division coming closer to splitting with each other.

    4) Some teams will go down. I don't see the Jags at 12-4 next year despite some FA improvements. I just don't think they're that good. The Chargers didn't make the playoffs, I know, but they're probably getting worse with Phillips at QB. The Bengals have to get Palmer back to 100%, etc, etc.
     
  3. richpats

    richpats Banned

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    Since we could of been 11-5 last year against the hardest schedule the NFL could throw at us AND in spite of a record year of injuries, I think we don't need to worry about 11 wins, especially against EIGHT teams with new head coaches. If we can ride with the big boys this year (Indy, Denver) we could be looking at a bye in the playoffs.
     
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I expect we'll be 5-1 in the division, I don't think 7-3 out of the division is unreasonable.
     
  5. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    It's exceptionally tough to miss the playoffs if you go 11-5.
     
  6. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #17 Jersey

    I am the first to say 14-2 and a first round bye? Believe....
     
  7. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    I hope you are right...will Corey Dillon be healthy and will Brady stay healthy with all the pounding he took last year??? Those are my main concerns. But...I could see us going right to the Super Bowl with a solid defense.
     
  8. oldrover

    oldrover Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Schedule is very weak... I think we get to 12-4 even if our PK is Flutie.
     
  9. Boston Boxer

    Boston Boxer U.S. Air Force Retired PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    we are going undefeated this year. mark it down. We are going to shove it up the medias arse. UNDEFEATED!
     
  10. edzo44

    edzo44 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I do not worry about "paper" teams, I worry about the teams that show up on the field on game day. Any of the teams you mention can be seriously impacted by injuries or coaching and I don't think any of them have the quality depth of the Patriots. We've proven that we are a dangerous team even when the injury bug hits and w/o injuries we're even more dangerous.

    All the teams you mention from last year sound good but the real proof always comes when the game is being played. A lot of variables with some new coaches and newly infused players with all the teams. I'll still feel the Pats will take care of their own destiny without having to depend on or worry about somebody else to determine whether or not we get into the playoffs.

    Some of those teams might have some new problems in their own divisions. Let them beat themselves up too. We could be assuming a little too much from last years ending records because a lot of these divisions have had an opportunity to really have improved themselves and might have truly done it. Sometimes parity can work for you too.

    We are normally blessed with quality players and quality coaching so I won't anticipate not making the playoffs again. The only question I have is simply how angry the team is at themselves for not getting further into the playoffs last year! They blew it themselves and they know it. This team will be pissed off and motivated! Hey a lot of naysayers are counting us out as of now so already we're being disrespected!! :D
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2006
  11. Pats726

    Pats726 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Funny Dale and Holley just went through the games...had the Pats at 12-4....Losses at home Indy.....on the road at Mia, Jax, Cinci.... Claimed it was an easy schedule..8 wins easily...I might agree even though it is way too early.
     
  12. ayjackson

    ayjackson Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    AMEN....beat me to it!
     
  13. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    My key in my original thread was if we split with the Jets then probably 11-5 and if we sweep the Bills, Jets and split with Miami then 12-4 is very possible. I see us beating the Bengals though and having a slump against the Bears.
     
  14. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Not that it matters too much, but I'd also note that, for all intents and purposes, we can consider ourselves 11-5 last year. Our 2nd and 3rd stringers almost beat Miami ferchissakes!
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2006
  15. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    Not going to guess untill

    A I see a schedule of dates

    B till we have a roster in tact


    Right now, still a 10-6 team
     
  16. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    0-0, but who's counting? :cool:
     
  17. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    or, 11-7.......
     
  18. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    11-5 gets you in. I just don't believe that
    1) you lose the division at 11-5 (though yeah, the 'fins could beat us with another 11-5, or really shock us all with a 12-4)

    or, more importantly...

    2) that 11-5 is the third-best record among non division winners.

    The basic deal is, when teams improve, they beat other teams, some of whom are in their division. It's pretty rare that a 10-6 team misses... an 11-5? no way.

    PFnV
     
  19. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    The Dolphins are going to be a very erratic team even if Culpepper is healthy (because of Culpepper's style). Saban made a big mistake there. If Culpepper is not healthy, even worse. They will not have a good record this year. The Jets and Bills with new HC ? Unless there are one or more huge bad break games, we should go 6-0 in our division. I like our chances against the Colts. It's going to be TOUGH for them to have an effective running back with their offensive line. James was a special player. I doubt if Belichick has forgotten how to give Manning fits. And I don't think their defense is going to be as effective as last year - and I think it was significantly overrated even then. Jacksonville could be tough. If we play Cincinatti in the middle of the season I think we do just fine. Early and the Pats may not be up to speed yet. Late and Carson Palmer could be getting back to full form.
     
  20. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Hey, since its September 7th and the start of the season is only 3 days away, could someone tell me who we drafted and who else we signed in free agency? Who won the starting OLB job opposite Colvin? Is Rodney back? How did Dillon look in TC?

    Do you get the picture yet? Why are we even talking about potential records when there is so much that still has to occur? There are so many things that could possibly happen, both good and bad.
     
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