Playoff Scenerio Week 14

[ctpatsfan77]

To answer your question about all the teams winning out...NO. There is no scenario that would cause NE to miss out on a guaranteed spot for the #2 seed. Their destiny is in their own hands, as HOU could not overtake them if both NE and HOU win out.

As long as NE wins the last 4 games, they would be guaranteed at least a #2.

Actually, if you look above, if both teams win out, what determines the seeding is strength of victory (at season's end, that's effectively the number of wins by teams beaten).

Right now, NE has a four-game edge over HOU in that statistic, 45-41, AND a two-game edge among the remaining opponents (NE's remaining opponents have 20 wins to HOU's 18).

NE (45+20): Dolphins, Chargers, Raiders, JEST, Cowboys, JEST, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, [Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins, Bills]
HOU Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, [Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans]

Could HOU make up a six-game deficit? It's at least possible. [There's no chance to catch BAL, whose SOV is >60 now.]

 

[supafly]

Actually, if you look above, if both teams win out, what determines the seeding is strength of victory (at season's end, that's effectively the number of wins by teams beaten).

Right now, NE has a four-game edge over HOU in that statistic, 45-41, AND a two-game edge among the remaining opponents (NE's remaining opponents have 20 wins to HOU's 18).

NE (45+20): Dolphins, Chargers, Raiders, JEST, Cowboys, JEST, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, [Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins, Bills]
HOU Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, [Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans]

Could HOU make up a six-game deficit? It's at least possible. [There's no chance to catch BAL, whose SOV is >60 now.]

I always respect your thoughts, ct.

I am not being a smartass, but tell me exactly how...

Looking at the last 4 opponents for both teams (NE and HOU), there's no way they'd be able to make up SIX games, assuming that both win out the rest of their last 4 games.

Let's start with next week...They have Cincy (7 wins). We have Washington (4 wins). Since there's a 3 game difference there, let's give them the 3 games, which would take it down to N.England still being up 3 games.

The next week, they have Carolina (4, but let's give them 5 by that time, which means that CAR would have to win this week, just for argument's sake). We have Denver (7 wins, possibly 8 by the time we play). If both teams win out, it's going to go right back up to a 6 game lead (at worst for us) with only 2 games to play.

Looking at the last 2 games, HOU has the winless Colts...that's certainly going to only add to our lead, since we have the Dolphins. Now it'd be at least 8-9 game lead, with only 1 game to play.

I cannot see any way possible, unless I am looking at it all wrong.

 

[Gumby]

Actually, if you look above, if both teams win out, what determines the seeding is strength of victory (YES) (at season's end, that's effectively the number of wins by teams beaten) (WRONG - THAT IS SOS.).

STRENGTH OF VICTORY - was specifically moved up this year in front of Strength of Schedule.

Strength of Schedule is the sum of your opponents W-Ls.

I do believe that:
Strength of Victory is your aggregate total of PF-PA (poiint for - points against).

Right now Hou has 1st place in SOV. NE 2nd. Balt/Pitt would be in 3rd.

But both are gaining on NE with our 4Q performances.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

STRENGTH OF VICTORY - was specifically moved up this year in front of Strength of Schedule.

Strength of Schedule is the sum of your opponents W-Ls.

I do believe that:
Strength of Victory is your aggregate total of PF-PA (poiint for - points against).

Right now Hou has 1st place in SOV. NE 2nd. Balt/Pitt would be in 3rd.

But both are gaining on NE with our 4Q performances.

I said "number of wins by teams beaten," not "number of wins by opponents."

What you described is point differential, which only comes in much later.

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I always respect your thoughts, ct.

I am not being a smartass, but tell me exactly how...

Looking at the last 4 opponents for both teams (NE and HOU), there's no way they'd be able to make up SIX games, assuming that both win out the rest of their last 4 games.

My apologies that I didn't make it explicit.

What matters is how the teams NE and HOU have beaten do over the next four games. For example, every win for the Bengals from here out gives HOU another win toward SOV. Similarly, every win the JEST get from here out gives the Pats 2 more wins toward SOV (since the Pats beat the JEST twice, their record counts twice).

It's at least mathematically possible, given the low overlap between the two groups, for HOU to make up the difference, but it's not a given.

 

[supafly]

My apologies that I didn't make it explicit.

What matters is how the teams NE and HOU have beaten do over the next four games. For example, every win for the Bengals from here out gives HOU another win toward SOV. Similarly, every win the JEST get from here out gives the Pats 2 more wins toward SOV (since the Pats beat the JEST twice, their record counts twice).

It's at least mathematically possible, given the low overlap between the two groups, for HOU to make up the difference, but it's not a given.

Thanks man. Much appreciated.

I expect that you'll be describing this to many others over the course of the next 4 games

 

[everlong]

If Baltimore and NE win out they are one and two regarless of what the other two teams do.

If Pitt and NE win out and Baltimore and Houston do not they are one and two. If Houston also wins out NE moves up to 1, Houston to 2 and Pitt 3.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Actually, if you look above, if both teams win out, what determines the seeding is strength of victory (at season's end, that's effectively the number of wins by teams beaten).

Right now, NE has a four-game edge over HOU in that statistic, 45-41, AND a two-game edge among the remaining opponents (NE's remaining opponents have 20 wins to HOU's 18).

NE (45+20): Dolphins, Chargers, Raiders, JEST, Cowboys, JEST, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, [Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins, Bills]
HOU Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, [Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans]

Could HOU make up a six-game deficit? It's at least possible. [There's no chance to catch BAL, whose SOV is >60 now.]

But if they hypothetically both won out, the SOV change wouldn't be enough right?

I'm just trying to confirm if the pats win out they are guarenteed a bye. Being 13-3 and the 3rd seed would suck.

Sorry I didn't see the above post, trying to bang some math out right now.

 

[supafly]

But if they hypothetically both won out, the SOV change wouldn't be enough right?

I'm just trying to confirm if the pats win out they are guarenteed a bye. Being 13-3 and the 3rd seed would suck.

Sorry I didn't see the above post, trying to bang some math out right now.

I think ct is just trying to remind us that it "is possible" that we could win out and still not get the 2.

However, that scenario is unlikely in my opinion.

I think we'd have to have about a 75-80% chance of grabbing the 2 if we win out.