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Playoff Scenerio Week 14

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Patsrock, Dec 4, 2011.

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  1. Patsrock

    Patsrock Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    A Pats win and a Jets loss the Pats win the division.
     
  2. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    I'm more interested in how the Texans/Ravens/Steelers do. We wrapped up the division when we beat the Jets a few weeks back
     
  3. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    OK so I saw on NBC that we are the #1 seed right now. So are we the #1 seed if we win out and Bmore, not Pitt, wins the AFCN?

    What happens if the Steelers win the AFCN and we finish at 13-3 tied with them and Texans, who would be 1 and 2 then?
     
  4. Dufflebagz

    Dufflebagz 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    EDIT: I was wrong :(
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2011
  5. juny

    juny In the Starting Line-Up

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    No Jersey Selected

    NE would be #1 -- according to espn playoff machine.

    NE would lose 2-way tiebreakers vs BAL and PIT, and would be #2 in a 3-way tie with BAL and HOU

    i could easily see bal, pit, and ne winning out
     
  6. PatriotFan77

    PatriotFan77 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I don't see the Stealers overtaking Ravens so they would appear to be locked into the 5th seed.
     
  7. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    Thanks for the explanations. Maybe Baltimore winning isn't a bad thing, if Houston and PIT keeps winning!
     
  8. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

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    For whatever reason a first round bye doesn't sound overly attractive with this team. I wonder if another game would be a blessing in disguise for, overall, a young and inexperienced playoff team.
     
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    It doesn't work that way.

    Once you have the division winners, it goes thusly:
    • Head-to-head, only if there is a sweep; no one won or lost against all the others.
    • W-L-T %age in conference. PIT is 7-3, while HOU and NE are 7-2, so they are 3rd. [If all three win out, then PIT will be 9-3 while HOU/NE will be 10-2.]

    You go back to the beginning and reapply the tiebreakers, but HOU-NE didn't happen, so we end up right back here.

    • Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Doesn't apply, as HOU and NE didn't play four games in common.
    • Strength of victory. HOU is 41-65; NE is 45-62.

    So it's NE-HOU-PIT at the moment.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2011
  10. Dufflebagz

    Dufflebagz 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    • Ah, didn't notice that. thank you good sir.
     
  11. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    Are you sure?
    So as long as we win out, we'll be getting a bye?
     
  12. juny

    juny In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yes, bye is guaranteed with 4 more wins.

    although at this early stage, it may very well be the steelers in the div. round that play the pats. i don't see houston or afc west winner winning their play off game.
     
  13. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    According to playoffstatus.com, that's not correct.

    If the Pats beat WAS and the Tebows, they're guaranteed the 3 seed, but even if they win out they're not guaranteed a bye.
     
  14. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    Not quite what I said. At the moment, if all three win out, PIT would lose out on the conference record.

    FWIW, if BAL, NE, PIT, and HOU all go 13-3, it's BAL-NE-HOU-[AFCW]-(5) PIT.

    So, if you take out BAL, then the remaining tiebreakers would guarantee NE-HOU-PIT in that order.
     
  15. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    So if all win out, it's BAL-NE 1 and 2
    If BAL loses 1 and the rest win out, it's NE-HOU 1 and 2

    Is that what you're saying? So I don't see a scenario of us winning out and not getting at least a 2 seed. Do you have any?
     
  16. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    It's impossible for NE to get into a 3 way tiebreaker with BAL and PIT because only one of them can win the division, and whoever loses the division will be the #5 seed.
     
  17. pherein

    pherein In the Starting Line-Up

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    Never forget you have the best QB in the game.
     
  18. upstater1

    upstater1 Pro Bowl Player

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    Who made the NFL schedule this year?

    NE, Baltimore, Pitt are all playing flotsam and jetsam to end the season.

    all the drama is gone.
     
  19. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I agree somewhat with what you're saying, they could have had better games, but let's look at it this way:

    --NE--still goes on the road to DEN, for what will probably be a SNF primetime game with 2 of the hottest teams in the AFC. Both who are gunning for their divisions/playoffs. That's a pretty good matchup.

    --PIT goes to SF for a huge MNF primetime game on Mon.Dec.19th. That's a pretty big game right there, no?

    --The NFL likely felt as though a matchup of BAL vs SD would be quite a spectacle around this time of year, so I really don't fault them for SD not being in the hunt. That should've been another good game with playoff implications for BAL.

    --The same thinking goes for the BAL vs IND matchup. Not the scheduling fault that IND suddenly is not a playoff contender after all these years.

    --While we're on the subject of BAL, they do play their last game against a divisional foe fighting for the playoffs, as they have to go on the road to CIN in week 17. As of current status, CIN would get the last WC slot as a 6 seed. That will have some possible playoff implications. Maybe..

    --The schedule maker did set up divisional games for NE too, as we have the revisit of the dreaded "Xmas Eve" game vs MIA on 12/24, and then a closeout of BUF the next week. Either one of those are locks, although we should certainly be able to handle BUF this time around. Actually the MIA and DEN games are looking a lot more like quite a challenge lately, at least in my opinion.

    --I think PIT always seems to get some gimme games in the last month of the season. They certainly could lose to SF though.
     
  20. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    To answer your question about all the teams winning out...NO. There is no scenario that would cause NE to miss out on a guaranteed spot for the #2 seed. Their destiny is in their own hands, as HOU could not overtake them if both NE and HOU win out.

    As long as NE wins the last 4 games, they would be guaranteed at least a #2.

    I really don't see how they could get the #1 in a realistic sense. In your scenario above, you describe BAL losing one more....remember that if that happens the Steelers would then win the AFCN, and they hold the tiebreaker over us due to head to head victory in the 25-17 game on Oct.30th. That would then make PIT the #1 AFC seed, with BAL moving down to a #5 wildcard.

    The only way that I could see us getting the #1 would be if BOTH PIT and BAL lost another game...AND New England won out with its final 4.

    It seems as though we're gunning for the #2 spot in my opinion, which is fine.
     
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