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Playoff scenarios

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ivanvamp, Dec 24, 2012.

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  1. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    Current standings, AFC:

    1. Hou 12-3 (owns H2H win over Den)
    2. Den 12-3
    3. NE 11-4 (owns H2H win over Den and Hou)
    4. Bal 10-5 (owns H2H win over NE)
    5. Ind 10-5
    6. Cin 9-6

    Right now, the matchups would be:

    Cin at NE
    Ind at Bal

    But there are four teams that play games that matter to these standings next weekend:

    Hou at Ind
    KC at Den
    Mia at NE
    Bal at Cin

    There are, therefore, 16 different combinations of those four key teams winning/losing (Hou, Den, NE, Bal).

    Combo 1 - Hou, Den, NE, Bal
    Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

    Combo 2 - Hou, Den, NE, Cin
    Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

    Combo 3 - Hou, Den, Mia, Bal
    Seedings - Hou, Den, Bal, NE

    Combo 4 - Hou, Den, Mia, Cin
    Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

    Combo 5 - Hou, KC, NE, Bal
    Seedings - Hou, NE, Den, Bal

    Combo 6 - Hou, KC, NE, Cin
    Seedings - Hou, NE, Den, Bal

    Combo 7 - Hou, KC, Mia, Bal
    Seedings - Hou, Den, Bal, NE

    Combo 8 - Hou, KC, Mia, Cin
    Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

    Combo 9 - Ind, Den, NE, Bal
    Seedings - Den, NE, Hou, Bal

    Combo 10 - Ind, Den, NE, Cin
    Seedings - Den, NE, Hou, Bal

    Combo 11 - Ind, Den, Mia, Bal
    Seedings - Den, Hou, Bal, NE

    Combo 12 - Ind, Den, Mia, Cin
    Seedings - Den, Hou, NE, Bal

    Combo 13 - Ind, KC, NE, Bal
    Seedings - NE, Hou, Den, Bal

    Combo 14 - Ind, KC, NE, Cin
    Seedings - NE, Hou, Den, Bal

    Combo 15 - Ind, KC, Mia, Bal
    Seedings - Hou, Den, Bal, NE

    Combo 16 - Ind, KC, Mia, Cin
    Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

    So of these 16 scenarios, here's where NE places among the top four seeds:

    #1 seed: 2 (12.5%)
    #2 seed: 4 (25.0%)
    #3 seed: 6 (37.5%)
    #4 seed: 4 (25.0%)

    So there's a 75% chance (if this was a "fair coin" kind of thing, which we know football is not) that the Pats will be one of the top 3 seeds. A 37.5% chance that they actually secure a bye. The Houston game is the biggest one of the day, IMO, because let's say they lose to Indy. Let's also assume the Pats win and stay ahead of Baltimore (who very well could lose on the road to Cin). Then the Pats will at a minimum be the #2 seed. If they get the #2 seed with Den moving to the #1, then here's what the playoffs look like:

    #1 - Den
    #2 - NE
    #3 - Hou
    #4 - Bal
    #5 - Ind
    #6 - Cin

    I would think that, in the divisional round, NE would likely draw Hou at home. I think that would be a terrific matchup for the Pats. Meanwhile, Den would get (most likely) either Bal or Ind. Den would probably beat either of those teams, but in a one-game scenario, the Pats playing at Denver in the AFCCG, while not ideal, is probably better than having to beat Den on the road in the divisional round and then going on the road again to beat Hou for the AFCCG.
  2. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    From a purely mathematical perspective your numbers are correct but Cincinnati and Indy have zero to gain so I'd weight their winning scenarios a lot less. Also KC sucks and has nothing to play for so ditto. I think it's more like 75% the seeds don't change from what they are now.
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2012
  3. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    You may be right. Here's why I think we have some reason to at least hope:

    - Bal at Cin. Cincy is playing very well and Baltimore is still banged up. They need to be encouraged by that dismantling of the Giants, but I think Cincy could win this game. If they do, then the Pats can't fall further down than #3.

    - Hou at Ind. Yes, Ind doesn't have anything to play for in terms of seeding, but they do have a lot to play for. Their HC is coming back, so they'll be emotionally fired-up. Hou has never beaten Indy in Indy. There's more motivation. Plus, it's possible that they'll want to head into the playoffs with some momentum and rhythm, so playing the game to win makes sense, like it has done for the Giants recently.

    - KC at Den. This is the longshot obviously. But KC ran for 300+ yards in their last game. I think Denver can be run on. If KC gets that ground game going, they can keep Peyton off the field and keep it close. Then one mistake by the Broncos could undo them. I don't see it happening and it's more likely that Denver wins by 20+ points, but still, there's a way for this to happen here.

    Again, IMO, the big game (aside from NE's own game) is the Hou at Ind. If Ind wins, then the Pats, playing at 4:15, will know they have a chance for the bye. If they know that Hou has won, they could rest some starters. We'll see.
  4. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    They were trying to sell this on Sports Hub this morning and I just think given Indy's history of sitting the starters we'll see the same and that the emotional return of Pagano is over played. Granted new management so who knows. I grant you it's the most likely upset but I stil think it's a pipe dream.
  5. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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    Right now our own team is quite banged up esp on D so a win vs miami isnt certainly automatic esp when mia has nothing to lose here. Its kinda tricky to go all out for a win and not get it and then have to play next week.
  6. bigballas

    bigballas Rookie

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