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Playoff QB ratings over the past 8 weeks

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PonyExpress, Jan 11, 2007.

  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    AFC

    1. Brady (162/247/65.6%/1689/6.8/11/3)= 95.0
    2. Manning (182/275/66.1%/2138/7.8/14/9)= 93.0
    3. McNair (133/198/67.1%/1358/6.9/6/3)= 90.4
    4. Rivers (102/186/54.8%/1303/7.0/9/6)= 79.7

    NFC

    1. Brees (139/223/62.3%/1814/8.1/11/4)= 96.9
    2. Garcia (133/218/61.0%/1462/6.7/11/2)= 93.9
    3. Hasselbeck (125/231/ 54.1%/1433/6.2/10/10)= 69.4
    4. Grossman (96/190/50.5%/1098/5.8/6/9)= 59.1
     
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Wow, so the cream really does rise as the playoffs approach - never would have guessed :) Good stuff.
     
  3. Mack Herron

    Mack Herron In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    Great post. And as Brady goes so go the Pats. Something few have discussed is that the Patriots trajectory is pointing up, while the Chargers took a little dip. It's all about Sunday.
     
  4. ironwasp

    ironwasp Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Wow. Grossman at 59?? I realised the guy was playing poorly, but seeing it there in black and white really kind of brings it home.
     
  5. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! In the Starting Line-Up

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    How about playoff stats? Methinks Brady pulled a little gap over Manningchokeonballs.
     
  6. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Just in case anyone wants to come back with a "better pass defenses" excuse, don't even bother. NE faced teams with an average PRA of 80.2 while SD faced teams with an average PRA of 80.8. Not much of a difference there.

    That said, TDs do count for quite a bit on the passer rating and LDT scoring as frequently as he does will bring down Rivers' figure even if he was crucial to getting to the goal line in the first place.

    NE has a lot of TDs from their RBs too, but it isn't on the level that San Diego has.
     
  7. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    If I were a SD fan, instead of passer rating I would be concerned about comp %.

    During Brady's 65.6% streak he faced teams that allow an average of 59.8%, an improvement of 5.8%.

    By comparison Rivers has completed 54.8% of his passes against teams that allow an average 62.2% comp rate, or 7.4% worse than average. Only one of the the 8 opponents allowed a completion % below what NE's opponents averaged, and that was only by 0.5%

    Since NE and SD are right around each other defensively with regard to % comp allowed (56.8 & 57.1 respectively) it would follow that Brady would be around 62% and Rivers anywhere from 50-55%.

    I suppose a case could be made that, due to SDs awesome run game Rivers takes more downfield chances, but that is not my impression.


    Edit: I should probably just look at the original chart. 6.8 ypa (Brady) vs. 7.0 (Rivers) means that Rivers was only attempting slightly longer passes.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2007
  8. Brownfan80

    Brownfan80 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Very interesting post, Oswlek, as usual for you.

    I knew that Brady was playing well over the past few weeks, but I didn't realize it was that well. That's including the Miami game?? If so, wow.

    You'd think that goose would pull him down a bit more.
     
  9. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Brady has been the Brady of old since that Miami game, maybe even better. The whole passing offense is finally clicking. These are his numbers in the last three games:

    65 - 97 (67%) 686yds 4 0

    I have no idea how to calculate passer rating, but I am sure that this has to be near 100. The teams faced, btw average allowing 59.6% comp and 76.9 PR. San Diego? 57.1 and 77.1 respectively.

    Lastly, Brady has averaged 99.6 PR in away games this year.

    Edited to add that two of the three teams faced played poorly for 1/2 the season and very well for 1/2 and NE faced both at their peaks and Brady still torched them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2007
  10. Brownfan80

    Brownfan80 In the Starting Line-Up

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    If the Pats can handle the pass rush, this bodes well.

    If they can't.. well, then I get flashbacks of @Miami.
     
  11. Pat_Nasty

    Pat_Nasty Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Great post, and very good analysis overall, but in your "Edit" comment, I think you underestimate the effect that completion percent has on YPA.

    In yards per attempt, every incomplete counts as a zero yard pass, no matter how deep the intended receiver was. To gauge the comparative depth of routes run, yards per completion is a better, though still far from ideal, measurement.

    Brady's YPC was 10.4, Rivers' was 12.7, and that's a more marked difference.

    Makes sense that the Chargers would run deeper routes -- the better your running game, the closer to the line defenses play you, the deeper the routes you want to run to beat them.
     
  12. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I understand everything you said, I just don't think that it is a meaningful difference going into this game. I probably should have explained myself better.
     
  13. Pat_Nasty

    Pat_Nasty Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Fair enough. Sorry if I misunderstood.

    Anyway, I also think it's encouraging to note that of the 3 games in which Rivers really struggled down the stretch, 2 were at home. Some QBs, especially inexperienced ones, tend to be great at home, but struggle on the road -- Rivers' struggles seem more to do with fatigue, and with the fact that defenses now have a better "book" on him.
     
  14. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    No man.... I'm sorry. :eat2:

    No seriously. My bad.

    I agree with you that it is encouraging. I am very excited about this game.
     
  15. CYATom

    CYATom Rookie

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    I appreciate all these statistical analyses you do, but I think this one is a bit misleading.

    In calculating Rivers' rating, I noticed that you only included the last 7 games he played, not the last 8. The 8th game was the game against Cincinnati, which, coincidentally, was one of Rivers' best games. Adding those stats in

    36 Att, 24 Comp, 338 yds, 3 TDs, 0 Int.


    makes Rivers' rating over the past 8 games he played a more respectable 86.94 (if the online calculator I used is correct).
     
  16. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    The SD/Cinci game was 9 weeks ago. The stats I listed are for the last 8 weeks.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2007
  17. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    I agree. In the end, as it always does, the outcome will depend on the courage and character of one young man standing in the pocket with the dogs of hell unleashed around him. Still, it is interesting that Brady and Rivers' performances have been heading in opposite directions over the past 8 weeks. However, that doesn't guarantee the trend will continue this Sunday.
     
  18. Iverson

    Iverson Practice Squad Player

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    Plus, you have to remember that the Pats are facing a much weaker pass defense. I posted this in another thread yesterday...

    "I don't think people understand just how good the Patriots defense is. Sure, they are only giving up 14.8 points per game compared to San Diego's 18.9. The Patriots give up only 3.9 yds/rush with 11 TDs given up compared to 4.2 yds/rush and 13 TDs for the Chargers. But most importantly is the Patriots pass defense, giving up a QB rating against of 66.1 (2nd in the NFL) to the Chargers' 76.6. While yardage and completion% are about even, the difference between these two team here is points and takeaways. The Patriots have given up only 10 TD and picked off 22 passes while SD has given up 19 TD to 16 INTs. The Chargers can have all the pro bowlers they want on defense, but the bottom line is the Pats rush defense is better and their pass defense is significantly better as they have an outstanding +12 pass defense INT-to-TD ratio compared to San Diego's -3. San Diego's 17 extra sacks is not nearly make up for the Patriots dominance on pass defense."
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2007
  19. Pat_Nasty

    Pat_Nasty Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    And if you don't like to talk about stats, why insert yourself into a thread that, obviously from the title, is discussing stats?
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2007
  20. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    Luckily, you don't have to, since this nifty calculator will do it for you. :D

    [Just remember when you use it that you enter attempts first, THEN completions.]

    Anyhow . . . 97 attempts, 65 completions, for 686 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs = 101.1.

    [BTW . . . to put Rex's "performance" in perspective: if you throw one incomplete pass (not intercepted), your passer rating is 39.6. :D ]

     

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